公司研 究 证 券研究 报 告 航运 2024年04月30日 招 商轮船（601872）2024年一季报点评 推 荐 （维持） 24Q1 实现归母净利润 13.8 亿，同比增长 目标价：11.3元 23%，中期分红计划重视股东回报 当前价：8.53元  公司公告 2024 年一季报：1）财务数据：2024Q1 实现营收 62.5 亿元，同比 华创证券研究所 +6.3%；归母净利润 13.8 亿元，同比+22.6%；扣非归母净利 13.6 亿元，同比 +23.3%。2）成本费用：2024Q1实现营业成本44.6亿，同比+3.2%；三费率约 证券分析师：吴一凡 为 8.3%，同比-0.9pts（不含研发费用），其中财务费用减少 0.67 亿。3）利润 率：2024Q1 实现毛利率约为 28.6%，同比+2.1pts；归母净利率 22.0%，同比 电话：021-20572539 +3.9pts；扣非归母净利率21.7%，同比+3.0pts。4）运价情况：2024Q1 VLCC- 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com TCE 均值 4.41 万美元/天，同比-19.4%，其中 TD3C 航线均值为 4.44 万 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年04月30日 招商轮船（601872.SH） 买入 油散共振向上带动业绩提升，中期有望实现分红 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 招商轮船发布2024年一季报。招商轮船2024年一季度实现营业收入62.54 交通运输·航运港口 亿元，同比提升6.30%，实现归母净利润13.75亿元，同比提升22.62%，实 证券分析师：高晟 证券分析师：罗丹 现扣非归母13.59亿元，同比提升23.31%。 021-60375436 021-60933142 gaosheng2@guosen.com.cn luodan4@guosen.com.cn 油轮业务表现优异，同比实现双位数增长。一季度，OPEC+延续减产，中国 S0980522070001 S0980520060003 原油进口低于预期，但油轮运输市场供需格局继续稳中向好，现货运费保持 基础数据 健康水平，远期（期租）运费及船舶资产价格稳步走高，2023年12月-2024 投资评级 买入(维持) 合理估值 年2月，VLCC TD3C运价均值为41747美元/天，同比增加21%。受到行业运 收盘价 8.28元 价的提振以及公司运营天的增长，招商 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年04月30日 招商轮船（601872.SH） 买入 油散共振向上带动业绩提升，中期有望实现分红 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 招商轮船发布2024年一季报。招商轮船2024年一季度实现营业收入62.54 交通运输·航运港口 亿元，同比提升6.30%，实现归母净利润13.75亿元，同比提升22.62%，实 证券分析师：高晟 证券分析师：罗丹 现扣非归母13.59亿元，同比提升23.31%。 021-60375436 021-60933142 gaosheng2@guosen.com.cn luodan4@guosen.com.cn 油轮业务表现优异，同比实现双位数增长。一季度，OPEC+延续减产，中国 S0980522070001 S0980520060003 原油进口低于预期，但油轮运输市场供需格局继续稳中向好，现货运费保持 基础数据 健康水平，远期（期租）运费及船舶资产价格稳步走高，2023年12月-2024 投资评级 买入(维持) 合理估值 年2月，VLCC TD3C运价均值为41747美元/天，同比增加21%。受到行业运 收盘价 8.28元 价的提振以及公司运营天的增长，招商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 1.375 billion yuan for Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.62%, driven by favorable market conditions in the oil and dry bulk transportation sectors [6][8]. - The mid-term dividend plan has been increased to 50%, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [6][8]. - The report highlights the upward trend in second-hand ship prices, which enhances the company's cost structure and provides a safety margin [6][8]. Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, the company's total revenue was 6.254 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.3% [8]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 8.528 billion yuan, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 76.3% [8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to rise to 36.8% in 2024, up from 28.6% in Q1 2024 [8]. Segment Performance - The oil tanker segment achieved a net profit of 870 million yuan in Q1 2024, a 13.87% increase year-on-year, with TCE rates approaching 50,000 USD/day [6][8]. - The dry bulk shipping segment saw a remarkable net profit of 357 million yuan, up 275.79% year-on-year, benefiting from a significant increase in BDI rates [6][8]. - The roll-on/roll-off transport segment reported a net profit of 80 million yuan, a 116.22% increase year-on-year, driven by the expansion of foreign trade operations [6][8].

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2024 was CNY 6,253,796,627.12, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.30%[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was CNY 1,375,236,215.25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.62%[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 1,358,642,572.78, up by 23.31% compared to the same period last year[4] - The basic earnings per share for Q1 2024 was CNY 0.17, an increase of 21.43% year-on-year[4] - Net profit for Q1 2024 reached CNY 1,398,677,934.99, a 23.7% increase from CNY 1,130,891,216.89 in Q1 2023[23] - Operating profit for Q1 2024 was CNY 1,447,380,209.86, up from CNY 1,184,899,268.02 in the same period last year, reflecting a growth of 22.2%[23] - Total comprehensive income for Q1 2024 amounted to CNY 1,470,597,097.80, compared to CNY 795,331,882.46 in Q1 2023, indicating a significant increase[24] Cash Flow and Liquidity - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 19.35% to CNY 1,803,018,671.22[4] - Cash flow from operating activities for Q1 2024 was CNY 1,803,018,671.22, down from CNY 2,235,688,490.05 in Q1 2023[25] - The net increase in cash flow from operating activities was CNY 5,954,676,129.10 in Q1 2024, compared to CNY 6,276,016,966.52 in Q1 2023[25] - Investment activities resulted in a net cash outflow of CNY -766,330,629.30 in Q1 2024, compared to CNY -1,079,820,036.38 in Q1 2023[25] - The net cash flow from financing activities was -1,344,049,806.59, a decrease from -5,051,764,753.17 in the previous period[26] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents was 4,648,511,642.46, down from 7,119,331,431.47 last year[26] - The company reported a cash balance at the beginning of the period of 4,948,740,555.43, compared to 11,086,454,037.39 previously[26] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of Q1 2024 were CNY 63,572,256,374.78, a 1.89% increase from the previous year[5] - The equity attributable to shareholders at the end of Q1 2024 was CNY 38,360,758,946.13, reflecting a 3.98% increase year-on-year[5] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 24,485,985,185.92 from RMB 25,055,580,328.48, a reduction of 2.3%[21] - Shareholders' equity increased to RMB 39,086,271,188.86 from RMB 37,339,081,185.93, reflecting a growth of 4.7%[21] Operational Highlights - The increase in net profit was primarily due to favorable market conditions in the oil and dry bulk transportation sectors, along with increased operational days for the fleet[8] - The VLCC fleet achieved an average TCE of approximately $50,000 per day, with net profit for the oil tanker segment reaching RMB 870 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.87%[15] - The dry bulk shipping segment reported a net profit of RMB 357 million, representing a significant year-on-year growth of 275.79%[16] - Container shipping business carried 194,200 TEUs, an increase of 20,200 TEUs or 11.6% year-on-year[16] - The roll-on/roll-off shipping segment's net profit was RMB 80 million, up 116.22% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential in foreign trade[16] Market Conditions - The average BDI index for January to March was 1,833 points, a year-on-year increase of 84.68%, marking the highest level for the same period in nearly eight years[14] - The average freight rate for the TD3C route was $44,424 per day, a year-on-year decrease of 3.13%[14] - The container shipping segment experienced a decline in profitability due to lower freight rates on Northeast Asia routes compared to the previous year[16] Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its market presence and invest in new technologies, although specific figures were not disclosed[22] - Future guidance indicates a focus on increasing operational efficiency and exploring potential mergers and acquisitions[22] Expenses - Research and development expenses for Q1 2024 totaled CNY 2,216,486.25, indicating ongoing investment in innovation[23] - Sales expenses increased to CNY 26,588,989.10 in Q1 2024 from CNY 20,313,301.30 in Q1 2023, reflecting a rise of 31.0%[23] - Management expenses rose to CNY 239,769,141.35 in Q1 2024, compared to CNY 204,085,956.47 in Q1 2023, marking an increase of 17.5%[23] Non-Recurring Items - The company reported non-recurring gains of CNY 16,593,642.47 for the period[7] - The company reported a net profit margin improvement, with net income figures to be detailed in future reports[22] Accounting Standards - The company did not apply new accounting standards or interpretations starting from 2024[26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company's oil transportation performance has significantly improved, while the bulk and container shipping sectors are expected to recover in 2024 [4]. - The report highlights a substantial increase in net profit from oil transportation, which reached 3.083 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 249.18% [4]. - Despite a decline in overall revenue and net profit due to weak dry bulk and container shipping markets, the outlook for 2024 is optimistic, with expectations of improved oil transportation demand and potential recovery in bulk and container shipping as the global economy stabilizes [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 25.881 billion RMB in 2023, a decrease of 12.88% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.837 billion RMB, down 4.92% [4][5]. - The oil transportation segment generated a net profit of 3.083 billion RMB, while the dry bulk and container shipping segments saw net profits of 899 million RMB and 873 million RMB, reflecting declines of 58.44% and 58.21% respectively [4]. - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 6.952 billion RMB, 7.740 billion RMB, and 8.434 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43.7%, 11.3%, and 9.0% respectively [5][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock is currently priced at 8.79 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 71.584 billion RMB [1][3]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is reported at 315.77 million RMB [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a continued improvement in the oil transportation supply-demand balance in 2024, with expectations for rising freight rates due to limited new ship orders and increasing export volumes from the U.S. and Russia [4]. - The dry bulk and container shipping sectors are expected to benefit from a recovery in global economic conditions, which may drive demand upward [4].

现在开始播报免责声明 本次电话会议仅供符合国海证券投资者适当性管理要求的客户以及受邀客户使用国海证券不会因接收人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而视其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议具此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券、国海证券员工或者关联机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点仅反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断 相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准会议严禁录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布、复制、编辑、改编、转载、播放、展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或全部内容 否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责市场有风险投资需谨慎 谢谢大家这个周日下午来参加我们的国国海球运的这个电话会啊我们今天的会主题呢就是核心就是聚焦于中东风险之下的一个潜在VLCC相关标的一个投资价值 那我先简单的回顾一下这个标的这里面核心标的主要有两个一个是中原海能,再一个是招商轮船那先简单的说一下这个VLCC的市场情况像整体VLCC市场这个中期逻辑趋紧的这么一个逻辑其实大家也听得比较多 这里 ...

1 1 | 目录 01 02 业绩概况 03 ESG概况 2 公司概况 | 一、公司概况 业务简介 分类 现有船舶 订单船舶 船舶艘数 总载重量(万吨) 箱位数(TEU)/车位数(辆) 平均船龄 船舶艘数 总载重量(万吨) 油轮 57 1,664.65 9.1 6 88.05 其中：VLCC 52 1,611.07 8.6 1 30.55 气体船 22 192.57 7.5 30 243.02 散货船 93 1,855.95 8.6 4 32.8 其中：VLOC 34 1,313.16 6.2 件杂货船 4 24.65 1.6 4 24.62 滚装船 22 8.54 41,020 10.5 6 12.90 集装箱船 19 42.40 30,491 9.5 自有船总计 217 3,788.76 8.8 50 401.39 租入船总计 33 148.63 12.9 干散货 集装箱 滚装 招商轮船 LNG 海宏 轮船 香港 明华 中外运 集运 招商 滚装 油轮 招商 气运 3 • 招商轮船是招商局旗下专业从事海上运输的全球航运企业。公司经营和管理着中国历史最悠久、最具经验的远洋油轮船队，是大中华地区领先的超级油轮船 ...

证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2024[021] 局集团旗下五家沪市上市公司（含本公司）将于 2024 年 4 月 16 日 下午共同参加在上海证券交易所举办的集体业绩说明会。 一、说明会类型 本次集体业绩说明会以现场交流、视频直播、网络文字互动 形式召开，公司将针对 2023 年度的经营成果及财务指标的具体情 况与投资者进行坦诚互动，交流和沟通，在信息披露允许的范围内 就投资者普遍关注的问题进行解答。 二、说明会召开的时间、地点 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于参加招商局集团有限公司上市公司 集体业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2024 年 4 月 11 日（星期四）至 4 月 15 日（星期一） 16:00 前通过公司邮箱 ir@cmhk.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对 投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 招商局能源运输股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公 司"）的控股股东招商局集团有限公司（以下简称"招商局集团"） 将举办"'百年招 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.881 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 12.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.837 billion yuan, down 4.92% year-on-year. The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to over 40% [2][9]. - The shipping industry is experiencing a divergence in performance, with oil and LNG sectors maintaining high demand while bulk and container shipping remain sluggish. The average Clarkson shipping index for 2023 was 23,629 USD/day, down 37% year-on-year, but still 33% above the 10-year average. The company managed to outperform the market through excellent operations and fleet configuration [2][12]. - The oil and bulk shipping sectors are expected to improve under supply constraints, driven by the aging fleet and increasing environmental regulations. The company is expanding its fleet to enhance future performance, having received one VLCC and signed contracts for two Aframax tankers and two Kamsarmax bulk carriers during the reporting period [2][12]. - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns, supported by a government initiative to improve the quality of state-owned enterprises and strengthen investor returns [2][21]. - Profit forecasts indicate that the company will achieve net profits of 6.4 billion, 8.4 billion, and 9.1 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026. Given the company's strong operational capabilities and governance, a 12x PE ratio is applied for 2024, resulting in a target price of 9.42 yuan per share [2][22]. Summary by Sections Performance and Dividend - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with a revenue of 25.881 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.837 billion yuan, alongside an increased dividend payout ratio exceeding 40% [9][12]. Industry Trends - The oil shipping sector is expected to see tightening supply conditions, with significant issues related to aging vessels and insufficient new orders. Environmental regulations are also becoming stricter, impacting fleet compliance [12][21]. - The bulk shipping sector is anticipated to recover starting in 2024, with potential demand boosts from projects like the West Mangdu project expected to come online in 2025 [17][20]. Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.4 billion, 8.4 billion, and 9.1 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with a target price of 9.42 yuan per share based on a 12x PE ratio for 2024 [22][40].