——国泰海通交运周观察 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | 春运客流持续增长，油运盈利 Q1 大增 [Table_Industry] 运输 本报告导读： 航空：2025 年主业盈利改善符合预期，春运客流持续增长，旺季表现可期。建议布 局超级周期长逻辑。油运：预计 2026Q1 油轮盈利同比大增数倍，期待超级牛市。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《公路政策优化可期，公路法修正将是信 号》2026.01.26 运输《春运客流再创新高，原油运价维持高位》 2026.01.25 运输《全球经济温和复苏，原油运价维持高位》 2026.01.25 运输《航空春运预售启动，预计因私需 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector despite seasonal challenges [4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is expected to show significant earnings growth, with Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit forecasted at 2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, driven by strong contributions from shipbuilding and power generation [5]. - The shipping market continues to experience robust demand, with one-year charter rates for VLCCs rising by 2.8% to $64,000 per day, and Cape rates increasing by 8.4% to $28,700 per day [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing volatility in oil transportation rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a 62% increase in a single day due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The dry bulk shipping market is also showing resilience, with the BDI index rising by 21.9% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from Australia and Brazil [5]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Sector - Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit is projected at 2.5 billion, up 71% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5]. - ST Songfa's Q4 net profit is estimated between 11-14 million, with a net profit margin of 14%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from Q3 [5]. - Attention is drawn to China Shipbuilding's upcoming full consolidation of assets and the release of high-priced orders in Q1 2026 [5]. Shipping Market - The report notes a continued upward trend in shipping rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 2.8% and Cape rates by 8.4% [5]. - The VLCC average rate rose by 16% week-on-week, reaching $122,326 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 25% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index recorded a 21.9% increase, with Capesize rates rising by 35.8% to $31,809 per day [5]. - Strong demand from Australia and Brazil is noted, with limited supply contributing to higher rates [5]. Air Transportation - The report indicates a significant opportunity for airlines due to rising passenger volumes and historical high load factors, suggesting a potential "golden era" for the industry [5]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates uncertainty in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and industry self-regulation policies, but notes that leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [5]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with recent data indicating a slight decline in volumes but overall stability [5]. - The report suggests that high dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [5].

Group 1 - The oil and gas investment heat is rapidly rising due to multiple favorable factors in the market, including geopolitical tensions and extreme weather in the U.S. that restrict production capacity, alongside OPEC+'s decision to maintain current supply restrictions [1][5][6] - Demand-side factors include the gradual construction of reserve inventories globally and the expected boost in refined oil consumption due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America anticipated to improve [1][6] - The U.S. dollar index recently hit a nearly four-year low, further supporting the rise in oil prices denominated in dollars, as historical trends show an inverse relationship between oil prices and the dollar index [1][6] Group 2 - Huatai Securities indicates that geopolitical premiums have led to a rebound in oil prices during the off-season, with expectations for oil prices to rise in the second to third quarters of 2026 due to demand recovery and global reserve accumulation [2][7] - The Huatai Baichuan oil and gas ETF tracks the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index, which includes 60 fundamentally strong A-share oil and gas companies across various sectors, providing investors with a convenient tool for exposure to the overall A-share oil and gas sector [2][8] - The Huatai Baichuan fund is one of the first ETF managers in China, with a strong presence in broad-based and dividend-themed indices, recently announcing new trading names for five products in its "Dividend Family" series [2][8]

Group 1 - The oil and gas investment heat is rapidly rising due to multiple favorable factors in the market, including geopolitical tensions and extreme weather in the US affecting supply capacity, alongside OPEC+'s decision to maintain supply restrictions [1] - Demand-side factors include the gradual construction of reserve inventories globally and the expected boost in refined oil consumption due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America anticipated to rise [1] - The US dollar index has reached a near four-year low, further supporting the rise in oil prices denominated in dollars, as historical trends show an inverse relationship between oil prices and the dollar index [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities indicates that geopolitical premiums have led to a rebound in oil prices during the off-season, with expectations for oil prices to rise in Q2 to Q3 of 2026 due to demand recovery and global reserve accumulation [1] - The Huatai Baichuan Oil and Gas ETF tracks the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index, which includes 60 fundamentally strong A-share oil and gas companies, providing investors with a convenient tool to access the overall opportunities in the A-share oil and gas sector [1]

"海瀚"轮的交付，将进一步完善招商轮船自有LNG船队的运力结构，标志着该公司在清洁能源运输领域的综合服务能力与市场覆盖能力得到有效 提升。 1月28日，我国自主研发设计的17.5万立方米液化天然气（LNG）运输船"海瀚"轮在大连交付。 招商轮船表示，"海瀚"轮与2025 年9月交付的"海韵"轮规格相同，液货舱总舱容17.5万立方米，符合国际最新LNG运输船设计理念，具备卓越的适 港性和船岸兼容性。船舶配备新型LNG双燃料低速主机，集成ICER系统，在燃油和燃气模式下均满足国际海事组织最高排放标准。液货舱采用 GTT Mark III Flex型围护系统方案，日蒸发率仅0.085%；同时配置再液化装置，可高效处理LNG蒸发气。 这次交付的"海瀚"轮由中船大连造船联合中船贸易为招商轮船建造，为招商轮船2022年在中船大连造船第一批订造的2艘同型节能环保LNG运输船 的第2艘。 中船大连造船有关负责人表示，该轮的成功交付为我国造船业"皇冠上的明珠"再添闪耀光彩，进一步巩固了我国在全球气体船建造领域的竞争优 势。 图源：新华社 截至28日，招商轮船LNG运输板块（含参股企业CLNG）管理营运中的船舶32艘，在手订单3 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights significant profit forecasts for various companies in 2025, indicating a trend of recovery and growth across multiple sectors, with some companies projecting substantial increases in net profit compared to the previous year. Company Performance Forecasts - **Beimo High-Tech**: Expected net profit for 2025 is between 190 million to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1076.16% to 1261.87% [2] - **Jiangfeng Electronics**: Plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz, with stock suspension starting January 30 [3] - **ST Aowei**: Received a notice of termination of listing due to market capitalization falling below 500 million yuan for 20 consecutive trading days [4] - **GaoDe Infrared**: Forecasted net profit of 700 million to 900 million yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 447 million yuan in the previous year [6] - **Bingchuan Network**: Expected net profit of 436 million to 516 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 247 million yuan [6] - **BlueFocus**: Anticipated net profit of 180 million to 220 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 291 million yuan [7] - **Godewei**: Projected net profit of 125 million to 162 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [6] - **Zhongyida**: Expected net profit of 51.23 million yuan, recovering from a loss [8] - **Helin Micro-Nano**: Forecasted net profit of 26 million to 33 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [8] - **Zhongke Sanhuan**: Expected net profit of 80 million to 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 566.23% to 899.35% [9] - **Beilu Pharmaceutical**: Projected net profit of 87 million to 130 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 537.28% to 852.26% [9] - **Light Media**: Expected net profit of 1.5 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 413.67% to 550.66% [9] - **Zhezhong Co.**: Forecasted net profit of 360 million to 500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 392.14% to 583.53% [10] - **Hailanxin**: Expected net profit of 40 million to 60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 387.47% to 631.2% [10] - **Jin Control Power**: Projected net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 383.21% to 507.9% [11] - **Century Huatong**: Expected net profit of 5.55 billion to 6.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 357.47% to 475.34% [12] - **Chunxue Food**: Forecasted net profit of 36 million to 43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 340.90% to 426.63% [13] - **Shirong Zhaoye**: Expected net profit of 126 million to 186 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.77% to 397.13% [13] - **Ningbo Yunsheng**: Projected net profit of 280 million to 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 194.49% to 299.67% [14] - **Jiangbolong**: Expected net profit of 1.25 billion to 1.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.66% to 210.82% [16] - **China Shipbuilding**: Forecasted net profit of 7 billion to 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.89% to 99.07% [17] Fundraising and Restructuring - **Beijing Lier**: Plans to raise no more than 1.034 billion yuan through a private placement [21] - **Tongfei Co.**: Plans to raise no more than 1.2 billion yuan through a private placement [21] - **Muxi Co.**: Plans to provide up to 200 million yuan in loans to its subsidiary for GPU development [23] - **Wanhua High-Tech**: Haihua Group will become an indirect controlling shareholder through a cash increase of 4.998 billion yuan [23]

该轮为公司2022年在大连船舶重工集团有限公司第一批订造的2艘同型节能环保LNG运输船的第2 艘。"海瀚"轮与2025年9月交付的"海韵"轮规格相同，符合国际最新LNG运输船设计理念，具备卓越的 适港性和船岸兼容性。船舶配备新型LNG双燃料低速主机，集成ICER系统，在燃油和燃气模式下均满 足国际海事组织最高排放标准。液货舱采用GTTMarkIIIFlex型围护系统方案，日蒸发率仅0.085%；同时 配置再液化装置，可高效处理LNG蒸发气。 格隆汇1月29日丨招商轮船(601872.SH)公布，2026年1月28日，招商局能源运输股份有限公司（下称"公 司"）通过下属控股单船公司在大连接收了1艘17.5万立方米大型液化天然气（LNG）运输船"海瀚"轮。 截至本公告发布之日，公司LNG运输板块（含参股企业CLNG)管理营运中的船舶32艘，在手订单32 艘。预计2026年内参股企业CLNG参与的卡气一期项目还将交付4艘LNG运输船。 继"海韵"轮投入运营后，"海瀚"轮的成功交付，是公司坚定不移执行LNG运输业务"双轮驱动"发展战略 的重要实践，亦是公司紧抓全球能源转型与航运市场发展战略机遇、稳步推进自有LNG船队 ...

特此公告。 招商局能源运输股份有限公司董事会 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 2026 年 1 月 28 日，招商局能源运输股份有限公司（下称"公司"） 通过下属控股单船公司在大连接收了 1 艘 17.5 万立方米大型液化天 然气（LNG）运输船"海瀚"轮。 该轮为公司 2022 年在大连船舶重工集团有限公司第一批订造的 2 艘同型节能环保 LNG 运输船的第 2 艘。"海瀚"轮与 2025 年 9 月 交付的"海韵"轮规格相同，符合国际最新 LNG 运输船设计理念， 具备卓越的适港性和船岸兼容性。船舶配备新型 LNG 双燃料低速主 机，集成 ICER 系统，在燃油和燃气模式下均满足国际海事组织最高 排放标准。液货舱采用 GTT Mark III Flex 型围护系统方案，日蒸发率 仅 0.085%；同时配置再液化装置，可高效处理 LNG 蒸发气。 继"海韵"轮投入运营后，"海瀚" 轮的成功交付，是公司坚 定不移执行 LNG 运输业务 "双轮驱动" 发展战略的重要实践，亦 是公司紧抓全球能源转型与航运市场发展 ...

招商轮船公告称，2026年1月28日，公司通过下属控股单船公司在大连接收1艘17.5万立方米大型液化天 然气（LNG）运输船"海瀚"轮。该轮是2022年第一批订造的2艘同型船的第2艘，与"海韵"轮规格相同， 具备卓越适港性和船岸兼容性。"海瀚"轮交付将完善公司自有LNG船队运力结构，提升其在清洁能源运 输领域的综合服务与市场覆盖能力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful delivery of the "Haihan" LNG carrier reinforces China's competitive advantage in the global gas carrier construction sector [2] Group 1: Delivery and Specifications - The "Haihan" LNG carrier, with a capacity of 175,000 cubic meters, was delivered on January 28 in Dalian [2] - The LNG evaporation rate of the vessel is as low as 0.085%, showcasing its high safety and stability, as well as minimal LNG loss during transportation [2] - The vessel is equipped with a new type of dual-fuel slow-speed main engine, meeting the strictest emission standards set by the International Maritime Organization, thus demonstrating high energy-saving and environmental protection performance [2] Group 2: Industry Significance - Large LNG carriers are considered key equipment in the liquefied natural gas supply chain and are referred to as the "three jewels" of the shipbuilding industry alongside aircraft carriers and luxury cruise ships [2] - The design and construction of such vessels reflect a country's comprehensive strength in shipbuilding [2] - The successful delivery of the "Haihan" adds to the prestige of China's shipbuilding industry and further solidifies its competitive position in the global gas carrier construction market [2]