证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2025[056] 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会、全体董事保证本公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2025 年 11 月 17 日(星期一)下午 13:00-14:00 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络文字互动 投资者可于 2025 年 11 月 7 日（星期五）至 11 月 14 日（星期五）16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司投 资者关系邮箱 ir@cmhk.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普 遍关注的问题进行回答。 三、本公司参加人员 公司董事、总经理王永新先生，董事余志良先生，独立董事邓黄君先 生，财务总监娄东阳先生，董事会秘书孔康先生及相关人员将参加本次业 绩说明会。 四、投资者参加方式 招商局能源运输股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates have significantly increased, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) rising to 2425.93 points, up 48.6% from October 23 [2][13] - The three major state-owned airlines in China reported collective profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with Hainan Airlines becoming the most profitable domestic airline [15][16] - Jitu Express has launched the world's largest self-built logistics hub, which is expected to enhance logistics capabilities during the "Double 11" shopping festival [22][23] Industry Investment Opportunities - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to the transportation demand increase driven by the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream, recommending Sichuan Chengyu, Chongqing Port, and Fulimin Transportation [4] - Investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [4] - The cruise and water ferry sector presents thematic investment opportunities, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Shares [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending Air China, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [4] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month, while year-on-year it has decreased [25] - Domestic freight volume for express delivery in September 2025 increased by 12.70% year-on-year, with revenue up by 7.20% [51] - In the first nine months of 2025, the total freight volume at national ports reached 1.3567 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [48]

Group 1 - The "Belt and Road" Index (399991) closed at 2780.29 points, down 0.77%, with a trading volume of 138.769 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.15% [1] - Among the index constituents, 17 stocks rose, with Baogang Co., Ltd. leading with a 5.26% increase, while 70 stocks fell, with China Merchants Energy leading the decline at 9.54% [1] - The top ten constituents of the "Belt and Road" Index include companies from various sectors such as telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, machinery, and construction, with China Petroleum having the largest market capitalization at 1751.511 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds from the "Belt and Road" Index constituents totaled 6.438 billion yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 4.915 billion yuan [3] - Baogang Co., Ltd. experienced a net inflow of 601 million yuan from main funds, while it faced a net outflow of 1.03 billion yuan from speculative funds [3] - The data indicates a mixed sentiment among investors, with significant retail interest despite the overall net outflow from main funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Energy's stock dropped by 9.54% today, indicating significant market volatility and investor sentiment shifts [2] Trading Activity - The total trading volume reached 1.707 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.46% [2] - The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a specialized seat buy 120 million yuan and sell 157 million yuan [2] - One institutional specialized seat had a net purchase of 130 million yuan, while two institutional specialized seats had a net sale of 124 million yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船) experienced a significant decline of 9.54% in its stock price today, indicating potential market volatility and investor sentiment shifts [1] Trading Activity - The trading volume for China Merchants Energy Shipping reached 1.707 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.46%, suggesting active trading despite the price drop [1] - The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net buy of 120 million yuan and a net sell of 157 million yuan, indicating mixed interest from institutional investors [1] - One institutional seat recorded a net buy of 130 million yuan, while two other institutional seats had a combined net sell of 124 million yuan, reflecting varied strategies among institutional investors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船) has experienced a significant year-on-year increase in Q3 performance, with a focus on the synergy between oil and bulk shipping sectors [1] - The company's stock closed at 8.34 yuan, reflecting a decline of 9.54% [1] - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2025 to 2027 to be 55 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a decline of 1.29% on November 4, with China Merchants Energy leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3960.19, down 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13175.22, down 1.71% [1] Stock Performance - Xiamen Port Authority saw a significant increase of 6.69%, closing at 11.00, with a trading volume of 777,700 shares and a transaction value of 850 million [1] - China Merchants Energy led the decline with a drop of 9.54%, closing at 8.34, with a trading volume of 1,985,000 shares and a transaction value of 1.707 billion [2] - Other notable performers included Haitong Development, which rose by 3.83%, and Qin Port Co., which increased by 2.36% [1][2] Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net outflow of 298 million from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 303 million [2][3] - Xiamen Port Authority attracted a net inflow of 154 million from main funds, while other stocks like An Tong Holdings and Haitong Development also saw varying levels of net inflow and outflow [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities highlights a significant year-on-year increase in the performance of China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船), with a recommendation to maintain a "buy" rating due to its leading position and optimistic market outlook in the oil and bulk shipping sector [1] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 55.43 billion, 81.53 billion, and 87.14 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.53%, 47.09%, and 6.88% [1] - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.43, 9.13, and 8.54 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the optimistic prospects for the oil and bulk shipping market, supporting the company's strong market position [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance saw a significant year-on-year increase, driven by the recovery in the oil and bulk shipping markets [5][8] - The optimistic outlook for the oil and bulk shipping markets, along with the company's leading position, supports the maintained "Buy" rating [6] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 19.31 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue reaching 6.725 billion yuan, up 10.95% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.06% year-on-year, while Q3 net profit was 1.175 billion yuan, an increase of 34.75% [8] - The net profit from the oil tanker segment in Q3 2025 was 597 million yuan, up 55.06% year-on-year, while the bulk carrier segment saw a net profit of 292 million yuan, down 21.08% [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 5.543 billion yuan, 8.153 billion yuan, and 8.714 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 8.53%, 47.09%, and 6.88% respectively [6] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 13.43, 9.13, and 8.54 times respectively [6] Market Dynamics - The oil shipping market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, which may lead to higher shipping volumes and a tightening supply-demand balance for VLCCs [8] - The dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to improve due to increased demand from the recovery of commodity prices and new mining projects in Guinea [8]

Core Insights - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has seen a strong increase of 1.54%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Lanstone Heavy Industry (603169) up 9.99%, Intercontinental Oil and Gas (600759) up 9.70%, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) up 4.54% [1] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December, consistent with the planned increases for October and November, while pausing production increases from January to March due to expected seasonal demand slowdown [1] - Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $65 per barrel, marking the longest consecutive increase since late September, while WTI crude oil prices have crossed the $61 mark [1] Industry Analysis - Long-term, oil-producing countries prioritize "value over volume," and OPEC+ is expected to balance pressures that may lead to a new round of cooperation, supported by North American shale oil cost impacts [2] - The Brent crude oil price is anticipated to find long-term support around $60 per barrel before the influence of South American supply and global energy transition accelerates [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, which includes major companies like China National Petroleum (601857) and Sinopec (600028), account for 65.09% of the index [2]