Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit increase of 17%-29% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the oil transportation sector and non-recurring gains from asset disposals and investments [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan for the entire year of 2025, with a quarterly net profit for Q4 expected to be between 2.7-3.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55%-90% [1]. - The operating profit from oil transportation is projected to increase by approximately 200%-230% in Q4, primarily due to a significant rise in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates [2]. - Non-recurring income is expected to rise substantially, attributed to gains from the disposal of old vessels and fair value changes from stock investments [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average VLCC freight rate for Q4 is estimated at $95,500 per day, marking a 167% year-on-year increase, with a notable increase in profitability per vessel [2]. - The compliance phase for Venezuelan oil exports is expected to strengthen the oil transportation market in 2026, with a projected increase in VLCC transportation demand by approximately 1.4% [3]. - The company has delivered a new methanol dual-fuel VLCC, increasing its fleet capacity to 53 vessels, which enhances profit elasticity [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027 at 6.5 billion, 7.45 billion, and 8.92 billion yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in the strong performance of the oil transportation market [4]. - The company's current reset cost is approximately 64.3 billion yuan, with a price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio of 1.21 times, indicating potential for future price increases in shipping assets [4].

格隆汇1月9日｜申万宏源研究指出，招商轮船2025年全年归母净利润预计60-66亿元，同比增长 17%-29%；4季度归母净利润预计27-33亿元，同比增长55%-90%，业绩增长强劲，略超预期。4季度油 运VLCC运价大涨贡献主要增长来源，仍有部分高运价将于2026年1季度确认。考虑到4季度油运市场强 劲表现，维持2025-2027年盈利预测65.0/74.5/89.2亿元。公司目前重置成本约643亿元，P/NAV 为1.21 倍；若考虑未来船价上涨86%（剔除通胀后较历史高点有86%提升空间），重置成本增加至1141亿元， P/NAV 为0.68，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance expectation relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.0 to 6.6 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% to 29%. The fourth quarter net profit is projected to be between 2.7 to 3.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 55% to 90% year-on-year [4][6]. - The strong performance is attributed to a substantial increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, which saw an average increase of 167% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [6]. - The company has also benefited from non-recurring gains, including profits from the disposal of old vessels and fair value changes from stock acquisitions [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 28.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9%. The net profit for the same year is projected at 6.501 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.3% [5][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 30.4% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 14.6% [5][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.81 yuan for 2025, increasing to 1.10 yuan by 2027 [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.0 to 6.6 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% to 29%. The fourth quarter net profit is projected to be between 2.7 to 3.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 55% to 90% year-on-year [4][6]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the oil transportation sector, with VLCC freight rates increasing significantly, contributing to the company's profit growth. The average VLCC freight rate for the fourth quarter is approximately 95,500 USD per day, a year-on-year increase of 167% [6]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in non-recurring income, primarily from the disposal of old vessels and gains from equity investments [6]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 28.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9%. The net profit for the same year is projected at 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27.3% [5][8]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast for the years 2024 to 2027, indicating a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with net profit expected to reach 8.92 billion yuan by 2027 [5][8]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2024 to 15.8% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 招商轮船（601872）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 公司研究 航运 2026 年 01 月 09 日 目标价：12.0 元 当前价：9.60 元 25 年归母净利预告中值 63 亿，同比+23%， 业绩创新高，继续看好油轮上行景气 ❖ 1、公司公告 2025 年业绩预增公告： 预计 2025 年实现归母净利 60~66 亿，同比+17%~29%，中值 63 亿，同比+23%； 扣非净利 50~56 亿，同比-0.2%~+12%，中值 53 亿，同比+6%；测算非经常性 损益 10 亿。 预计 25Q4 实现归母净利 27~33 亿，同比+55%~90%，中值 30 亿，同比+73%； 扣非净利 21~27 亿，同比+22~57%，中值 24 亿，同比+39%；测算非经常性损 益 6 亿。 我们继续看好此轮油运周期景气持续性，1）供给逻辑不变，截至 26 年 1 月 VLCC 在手订单占比为 17.2%，而 20 岁以上运力占比达 19%，15 岁以上运力 占比超 40%，环保政策趋严背景下老龄化因素对冲少量新船交付；2）被制裁 VLCC 运力占比已升至 16.57%，随着制 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the investment potential of MTR Corporation (0066.HK), emphasizing its "Rail + Property" model which is expected to drive growth in line with the recovery of the Hong Kong economy [4][11] - The projected net profits for MTR Corporation from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at HKD 162.03 billion, HKD 201.66 billion, and HKD 101.38 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12x, 9x, and 19x [4][11] - The report assigns a target price of HKD 35.55 per share for MTR Corporation, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current market value, and recommends an "Outperform" rating [4][11] Company Overview - MTR Corporation has evolved into the core operator of Hong Kong's rail transit since its establishment in 1975, with significant expansions including the merger with Kowloon-Canton Railway Corporation in 2007 and acquiring franchises in cities like Beijing and Hangzhou [11] - The Hong Kong government, represented by the Financial Secretary, holds a 74.45% stake in MTR Corporation, with the remainder owned by public and institutional investors [11] Business Model and Market Position - The "Rail + Property" development strategy allows MTR Corporation to finance railway projects through the development of land along railway lines, which is crucial given the high costs and long payback periods associated with railway construction [11] - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is expected to enhance MTR's long-term property development prospects, with significant revenue recognition anticipated in 2025 and 2026 [11] - MTR's core operations in Hong Kong are supported by a fare adjustment mechanism, and the business is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in passenger traffic [11] Dividend Policy and Valuation - MTR Corporation has adopted a progressive dividend policy, with dividends per share increasing from HKD 1.06 in 2015 to HKD 1.31 in 2024, and is expected to maintain this level in the coming years [11] - The overall enterprise value of MTR Corporation is estimated at HKD 2,766 billion, with a 20% discount applied due to its diversified operations, leading to a calculated equity value of HKD 2,213 billion [4][11]

●招商局能源运输股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 人民币600,000~660,000万元，与上年同期相比，预计增加89,300-149,300万元，同比增加17%~29%。 2025年四季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润与上年同期相比，预计增加96,200-156,200万元，预计 增加55% ~90%。 ●预计公司2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为人民币500,500~560,500万 元，与上年同期相比，预计增加-1,000 ~59,000万元，同比增加-0.2% ~12%。2025年四季度实现归属于 上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润与上年同期相比，预计增加37,700~97,700万元，增加22% ~57%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： （一）业绩预告期间 2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1、公司预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为人民 ...

航运板块 2026 年度策略：油散共振弹性可期，重点推荐 油轮板块 20260108 摘要 游轮需求端强劲，原油价格下行激发补库需求，预计 2026 年运价保持 高位。老船占比大，或大规模出清，制裁冲突可能短期推高运价。 几内亚西芒杜铁矿投产和铝土矿出口增长有望拉长干散货运距，俄乌、 巴以冲突后重建或提升干散货需求。关注海通发展、招商轮船。 集装箱航运需求受欧美需求不振和中美贸易摩擦影响，增量依赖东南亚 新兴市场。供给端持续宽松压制运价，警惕红海复航释放运力。 2025 年集装箱航运市场供需关系转松，运价显著回落。1-11 月 CCFI、SEFI 终值同比下跌 22%、36%。关注东南亚市场潜力，警惕红 海通航风险。 2025 年干散货市场受气候因素影响波动，运价中枢约为 2000 点。关 注几内亚铁矿发运，其运输距离远超澳大利亚，将显著增加运输需求。 干散货供给端无宽松预期，在手订单量低，老船占比高，新增供给困难。 预计 2026 年干散货市场首次进入供需平衡状态。 招商轮船主营超大型游轮 VLOC 及超大型矿砂船 VLOC，有望受益于油 散共振大周期。锦江航运向东南亚扩张，抢占区域先机。 Q&A 2026 ...

招商轮船（601872）1月8日发布2025年业绩预增公告，预计实现净利润为60.00亿元~66.00亿元，净利 润同比增长17.00%~29.00%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，招商轮船今日收于9.60元，上涨6.55%，日换手率为1.98%，成交额为15.40 亿元，近5日上涨6.90%。 资金面上，该股今日主力资金净流出1.27亿元，近5日资金净流出2.83亿元。最新（1月7日）两融余额 13.29亿元，其中，融资余额13.26亿元，环比前一交易日增长2.73%，近5日融资余额累计增长2.52%。 （数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月8日，招商轮船发布公告称，公司预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 人民币600，000万元—660，000万元，与上年同期相比，预计增加89，300万元—149，300万元，同比 增加17%—29%。 ...