华福证券 航运 2024年04月08日 公 司 招商轮船（ ） 601872.SH 买入（维持评级） 研 究 供需错配拖累业绩，静待需求复苏油散共振 当前价格： 7.99元 目标价格： 9.69元 投资要点： 基本数据  事件：招商轮船发布2023年年报，公司实现营业收入258.8亿元，同比 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 8,143.81/8,143.81 减少12.9%；归母净利润48.4亿元，同比减少4.9%；扣非归母净利润46.4亿 流通A股市值(百万元) 65,069.01 元，同比减少3.5%。单四季度公司实现营业收入68.6亿元，环比增加13.7%， 每股净资产(元) 4.53 同比减少15.6%；归母净利润10.8亿元，环比增加9.2%，同比减少11.6%；扣 资产负债率(%) 40.16 非归母净利润10.2亿元，环比增加15.9%，同比减少11.9%。 一年内最高/最低价(元) 8.34/5.59 点评： 一年内股价相对走势 公  油运行业景气延续，干散集运复苏动力不足。2023年公司营业收入同比 司 减少12.9%，主要系干散及集运业务受全年需求低迷拖累，运价下跌明显，导 财 致营收同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.19 CNY [1][2] Core Views - The company's diversified business segments ensure stable long-term profitability across cycles [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising and sustained oil shipping market in the coming years [1] - The company's dividend payout ratio has increased to 40%, reflecting its focus on shareholder returns and market value management [1] - The company's oil shipping segment saw a 274% YoY increase in net profit in 2023, while the dry bulk and container shipping segments experienced a decline [1] - The company's roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) shipping segment achieved a 200% YoY growth in net profit, with promising future growth potential [1] Business Segments - The company operates in multiple segments including oil shipping, dry bulk, container shipping, LNG, and RoRo shipping [1] - The oil shipping segment is expected to see continued growth due to high capacity utilization and favorable market conditions [1] - The dry bulk segment is anticipated to show profit growth in Q2 2024, driven by rising freight rates [1] - The RoRo shipping segment is expected to maintain strong growth momentum [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 4.837 billion CNY in 2023, a 5% YoY decrease, largely due to the decline in dry bulk and container shipping profits [1] - The company's net profit is forecasted to reach 7.252 billion CNY in 2024, 8.016 billion CNY in 2025, and 8.509 billion CNY in 2026 [1] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 0.59 CNY in 2023 to 0.89 CNY in 2024 [1] - The company's operating margin is projected to rise from 21.8% in 2023 to 25.6% in 2024 [1] Market and Industry Outlook - The global oil shipping market is expected to remain robust in 2024, with steady growth in demand [1] - The company's VLCC fleet is operating at near capacity, with TCE rates expected to remain strong [1] - The dry bulk shipping market is expected to see improved profitability in 2024, driven by rising freight rates [1] - The company's diversified fleet structure provides resilience against market fluctuations [1] Shareholder Returns - The company increased its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 40% in 2023, with a dividend yield of approximately 5% [1] - The company's focus on shareholder returns and market value management is expected to continue [1]

证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2024[020] 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于签署卡塔尔能源 LNG 运输项目长期运输 及造船协议的公告 卡塔尔能源公司、三星重工为本公司之独立第三方，本交易不构 成关联交易。 本公司董事会及董事保证本公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性负个别 及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 本公司下属全资子公司招商气运收到卡塔尔能源公司《授标书》， 公司受标 6 艘 LNG 运输船长期运输协议。 本公司下属全资子公司招商气运下设的 6 家单船公司，分别与韩 国三星重工签订 6 艘 17.4 万立方 LNG 运输船造船合同。 本公司下属全资子公司招商气运下设的 6 家单船公司分别与卡塔 尔能源公司签订6艘LNG运输船舶15+5+5年期的《长期运输协议》。 本交易未构成重大资产重组。 一、交易概述 招商局能源运输股份有限公司（下称"本公司"或"公司"）第七 届董事会第四次会议审议通过了《关于投标卡塔尔能源公司 LNG 运 输项目的议案》，同意招商轮船液化天然气运输有限公司（下称"招 1 商气运"）参与卡塔尔能源公司（下称" ...

%% research.95579.com %% 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨招商轮船（ ） 601872.SH [Table_Title] 油运经营保持领先，多元平台各有亮点 报告要点 [2T0a2b3le年_S公um司m实a现ry]营业收入 258.8 亿，同比下滑 12.9%，实现归母净利润 48.4 亿，同比下滑 4.9%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.5 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of 7.96 CNY [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a 2023 revenue of 25.88 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.84 billion CNY, down 4.9% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.38 CNY per 10 shares, raising the dividend payout ratio to 40.07% from 30.36% in 2022 [2][3]. - The oil transportation segment showed significant growth, with revenue of 9.67 billion CNY, up 37.6% year-on-year, and a net profit increase of 249.2%. The average TCE for the TD3C route was 35,500 USD/day, a 111% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The bulk shipping segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 39.5% to 7.11 billion CNY, but the company managed to outperform the market through strategic adjustments [2][3]. - The container shipping segment also saw a revenue drop of 22.2% to 5.54 billion CNY, attributed to a significant decline in overall market rates [2][3]. - The roll-on/roll-off shipping segment performed well, with a revenue increase of 5.7% to 1.96 billion CNY, reflecting strong international demand [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 25.88 billion CNY, with a projected revenue increase to 29.67 billion CNY in 2024, representing a growth rate of 14.6% [3][16]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 7.77 billion CNY, a significant increase of 60.5% compared to 2023 [3][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.59 CNY in 2023 to 0.95 CNY in 2024, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8 [3][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][8][11] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 25.88 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.84 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [2][4] - The oil tanker business performed exceptionally well, achieving a gross profit of 3.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 249.2% [2][8] - The dry bulk shipping segment faced challenges in 2023, with an average BDI index of 1378.4, down 28.7% year-on-year, leading to a net profit of only 900 million yuan, a decline of 58.4% [8] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from approximately 30% to 40%, which is expected to support its valuation [2][8] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024 are estimated at 30.67 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.5% increase from 2023 [2][9] - Net profit is expected to rise to 6.84 billion yuan in 2024, a 41.4% increase compared to 2023 [2][9] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 9.2 for 2024, decreasing to 7.9 by 2026 [2][9] - The ROE is forecasted to improve to 16.7% in 2024, with a gradual decline to 15.8% by 2026 [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a recommendation to "Increase Holdings" [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's financial performance in 2023 showed a total revenue of 25.881 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.837 billion RMB, down 4.92% year-on-year [2][3]. - The oil tanker segment experienced significant improvement, with revenues of 9.672 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.083 billion RMB. The container shipping and bulk shipping segments also contributed positively, with revenues of 5.539 billion RMB and 7.108 billion RMB, and net profits of 0.873 billion RMB and 0.899 billion RMB, respectively [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.38 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 1.938 billion RMB, which represents 40.07% of the net profit [1][2]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 7.296 billion RMB, 7.932 billion RMB, and 8.716 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.90 RMB, 0.97 RMB, and 1.07 RMB [1][3]. - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 8.6, 7.9, and 7.2 times, respectively [1][3]. Market Conditions - The international oil transportation market is showing signs of recovery, benefiting the company's oil tanker fleet as freight rates have increased. The average daily earnings for VLCC and Aframax tankers rose by 104% and 1.7% year-on-year, reaching 48,700 USD and 56,900 USD, respectively [2][3].

招商局能源运输股份有限公司（下称"公司"）董事会于2024年3 月27日收到公司高级顾问徐挺惠先生书面辞职报告。徐挺惠先生因退 休原因，申请辞去公司高级顾问职务。 根据《公司法》和《公司章程》的相关规定，徐挺惠先生的辞职 报告自送达公司董事会时生效。 徐挺惠先生在公司任职及公司2016年以来的资产整合期间做出 了宝贵贡献，董事会谨致谢忱。 特此公告。 招商局能源运输股份有限公司董事会 2024 年 3 月 29 日 证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2024[019] 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于高管辞职的公告 本公司董事会及董事保证本公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性负个别及连 带责任。 ...

Financial Performance - The company's net profit for 2023 reached RMB 1,733,498,154.68, with a statutory surplus reserve of RMB 173,349,815.47, accounting for 10% of the net profit[4]. - A cash dividend of RMB 2.38 per 10 shares (including tax) is proposed, totaling RMB 1,938,225,912.01 (including tax), which represents 40.07% of the net profit attributable to shareholders[4]. - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was approximately ¥25.88 billion, a decrease of 12.88% compared to ¥29.71 billion in 2022[16]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was approximately ¥4.84 billion, down 4.92% from ¥5.09 billion in 2022[16]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for 2023 was approximately ¥8.92 billion, an increase of 27.48% compared to ¥6.99 billion in 2022[17]. - The total assets at the end of 2023 were approximately ¥62.39 billion, a decrease of 4.70% from ¥65.47 billion at the end of 2022[17]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders at the end of 2023 were approximately ¥36.89 billion, an increase of 11.62% from ¥33.05 billion at the end of 2022[17]. - The company's operating revenue for the reporting period was approximately ¥25.88 billion, a decrease of 12.88% compared to the previous year[69]. Shareholder Returns - The board has approved a share buyback program worth 100 million CNY to enhance shareholder value[10]. - The cash dividend proposal for 2023 will be submitted for approval at the shareholders' meeting following the board's recommendation[168]. - The cash dividend represents 40.07% of the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company for the 2023 fiscal year, which is RMB 4,836,966,617.91[171]. - The company has established a stable profit distribution policy that prioritizes cash dividends while considering long-term interests and sustainable development[165]. Market and Industry Outlook - The company provided a positive outlook for the next fiscal year, projecting a revenue growth of 10% to 1.32 billion CNY[10]. - The company is expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia, targeting a 25% market share by 2025[10]. - The company expects global crude oil import demand to grow by over 3% in 2024, driven primarily by India and China, while the supply of crude oil tankers is projected to grow only by about 0.2%[112]. - The company anticipates that the tanker market will remain in a favorable state through 2025, with demand expected to grow by 3.1% while supply only increases by 0.3%[112]. Operational Efficiency and Strategy - The company is exploring potential acquisitions to enhance its service offerings and market reach[10]. - A new strategic partnership was announced, aimed at improving operational efficiency and reducing costs by 15%[10]. - The company plans to implement a new digital platform to enhance customer engagement and streamline operations[10]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation through the application of IoT, big data, blockchain, and AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency and management[58]. Research and Development - Research and development investments increased by 30%, focusing on innovative shipping technologies[10]. - The company increased R&D expenses by 209.33% to ¥3.94 million, reflecting a focus on innovation[69]. - The company is investing $200 million in research and development for new technologies aimed at enhancing operational efficiency[143]. Environmental and Sustainability Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing the "carbon peak, carbon neutrality" strategy and has established a comprehensive energy-saving and environmental protection management system[181]. - The company completed the installation of exhaust gas desulfurization devices on 15 vessels during the reporting period, effectively reducing SO2 emissions[180]. - The company achieved an EEXI compliance rate of 98.91% for its fleet, with all main engine power limitation modifications completed[181]. - The company has installed desulfurization scrubbers on 62 ships, including 37 VLOCs, 6 Capesize bulk carriers, and 19 VLCCs, to comply with IMO 2020 sulfur emission regulations[182]. Governance and Compliance - The company has established a strong governance framework with the appointment of external directors to strengthen oversight and strategic direction[146]. - The company has not faced any penalties from securities regulatory agencies in the past three years, indicating compliance with regulations[150]. - The company’s independent directors have expressed their agreement with the revised cash dividend policy, emphasizing the protection of investors' rights[165]. Human Resources and Management - The company has a total of 4,755 employees, with 3,690 in production, 345 in sales, 423 in technology, 191 in finance, and 277 in administration[162]. - The company has established a mid-to-long-term incentive plan to attract and retain core talent[163]. - The total remuneration for directors, supervisors, and senior management in 2023 is determined based on the completion of the annual business plan and individual KPI assessments[148]. Financial Management - Financial expenses surged by 633.095 million RMB, an increase of 152.09%, primarily due to rising interest rates on dollar-denominated loans[1]. - The company experienced a significant cash outflow from investment activities, totaling 28.949 billion RMB, an increase of 158.93% year-on-year, due to new shipbuilding and acquisitions[1]. - The company’s financing activities resulted in a net cash outflow of 51.196 billion RMB, an increase of 97.39% year-on-year, attributed to substantial loan repayments and increased cash dividends[1].

上 市 公 司 交通运输 2024年03月28日 招商轮船 (601872) 公 司 研 究 —— 分红比例提至 40%，关注船价上涨资产重估长逻辑 / 公 司 点 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 评 买入 投资要点： （维持） ⚫ 事件：招商轮船发布2023年年报。归母净利润48.37亿元，同比下降4.9%，扣非净利润 46.40亿元，同比下降3.5%。其中，2023年Q4归母净利润10.79亿元，同比下滑11.6%。 证 市场数据： 2024年03月27日 ⚫ 分红提升导致Q4有效税率增加，业绩略低于我们业绩前瞻中的50.86亿的预期，主要原 券 收盘价（元） 7.74 因为（1） Q4滚装船资产减值0.53亿。（2）分红比例提升至40%，2022年为30.35%。 研 一年内最高/最低（元） 7.98/5.59 人民币分红需要将境外美元利润结汇，境内外税差导致有效税率提升。4 季度所得税率提 究 市净率 1.7 升至19%（前三季度为5.8%）。 报 息率（分红/股价） - 告 流通A股市值（百万元） 63033 ⚫ 油轮板块：公司全年油轮毛利38.37亿，净利润30.83亿，同比增长249.2%，实际T ...