Investment Rating - The investment rating for Linglong Tire (601966.SH) is "Buy" with the rating maintained [1][6]. Core Views - Linglong Tire continues to experience strong growth in tire sales, with a global expansion strategy that includes establishing a new production base in Brazil [5][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 220.58 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, and a net profit of 17.52 billion yuan, up 26.01% year-on-year [5][6]. - The tire market in China is thriving, with production exceeding 1.18 billion units in 2024, a 9.2% increase from 2023, and exports growing by 10.5% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Linglong Tire achieved a revenue of 220.58 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.52 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.06%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The company expects revenues of 240.20 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected at 20.21 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.38 yuan [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Linglong Tire's sales volume reached 85.45 million units in 2024, a growth of 9.57% year-on-year, and continued to grow in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - The company is implementing a "7+5" strategy, focusing on seven domestic bases and five overseas bases, with plans for a new facility in Brazil [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 10.31 in 2025, with a target stock price range of 16.56 to 20.70 yuan based on a 12-15 times P/E valuation [6].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of major Chinese tire companies, including Sailun, Linglong, and Triangle, shows significant divergence in 2024, with Sailun and Linglong experiencing substantial growth in revenue and net profit, while Triangle faced declines in both revenue and profit [2][4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Sailun Tire**: - Revenue reached 31.802 billion yuan, up 22.4% year-on-year - Net profit was 4.063 billion yuan, a 31.4% increase - R&D expenses amounted to 1.013 billion yuan, a 20.8% increase [3][4][6][8] - **Linglong Tire**: - Revenue was 22.058 billion yuan, growing by 9.4% - Net profit reached 1.752 billion yuan, up 26% - R&D expenses totaled 920 million yuan, a 12.97% increase [3][4][7][8] - **Triangle Tire**: - Revenue fell to 10.156 billion yuan, down 2.55% - Net profit decreased to 1.103 billion yuan, a decline of 21.03% - R&D expenses were 150 million yuan, a 6% increase [3][4][8] Market Trends and Challenges - The global tire market is expanding, driven by the recovery of the automotive industry, with a total global tire sales volume of 1.856 billion units in 2024, a 1.86% increase year-on-year [4][12] - The domestic tire market saw a total production of 847 million units, up 7.8% year-on-year [4] - The industry is facing challenges from rising raw material prices, particularly natural rubber and synthetic rubber, which increased by 30% and 19% respectively [7][11] Q1 2025 Performance - **Sailun**: - Revenue for Q1 2025 was 8.411 billion yuan, a 15.28% increase year-on-year - Net profit was 1.039 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.47% [9][10] - **Linglong**: - Q1 revenue reached 5.697 billion yuan, up 12.92% - Net profit fell to 341 million yuan, down 22.78% [9][10] - **Triangle**: - Q1 revenue was 2.244 billion yuan, down 5.92% - Net profit decreased significantly to 166 million yuan, a decline of 43.54% [9][11] Strategic Developments - Sailun is enhancing its digital and intelligent manufacturing capabilities, establishing a comprehensive digital ecosystem to improve production efficiency and reduce costs [6][8] - Linglong is expanding its global footprint with new factories in Brazil and Serbia, aiming to strengthen its international competitiveness [14] - Triangle is also investing in digital transformation to improve operational efficiency despite facing significant challenges [7][11]

Group 1 - Linglong Tire (601966.SH) reported its Q1 2025 results, with 58 institutional investors holding a total of 917 million shares, representing 62.63% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 60.27% of the shares, with a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, 11 funds increased their holdings, while 13 funds decreased their holdings, both with a change of 0.11% [2] - Seven new public funds disclosed their holdings in Linglong Tire, while 350 funds did not disclose their holdings in the current period [2] Group 3 - One pension fund decreased its holdings, while one insurance fund increased its holdings, indicating a slight change in the pension and insurance sectors [3] - One foreign fund reduced its holdings by 0.20% compared to the previous quarter [3]

近年来，玲珑轮胎积极响应国家《乡村振兴促进法》，凝聚各方力量共同打造天然橡胶产业的绿色未 来。接下来，玲珑轮胎将与GPSNR及本地合作伙伴密切协作，持续跟进项目进展、总结经验，探索更 多可复制、可推广的路径，让绿色成果惠及更多地区。 在该项目中，玲珑轮胎携手Preferred by Nature，协助西双版纳当地小农群体推进FSC认证，帮助他们打 通进入高端市场的绿色通道。这不仅提升了橡胶种植的可持续性，更为小农户在责任化、可追溯供应链 中实现稳定且长期的发展奠定了基础。 在西双版纳热带植物研究院和亚太森林恢复与可持续管理网络(APFNet)等本地伙伴的支持下，玲珑轮胎 通过开展生态意识宣传与社区主导的培训活动，推广农林复合经营与土地修复实践，让退化的生态系统 重获新生，保护这片拥有亚洲象、热带森林及逾5000种植物的珍贵生物多样性地区。 据悉，近年来，随着橡胶种植的快速扩张，西双版纳生态系统承受了不小压力：森林面积减少、生物多 样性锐减，生态失衡问题逐渐凸显。同时，当地农村社区也面临严峻挑战，对单一作物高度依赖、人口 外流严重、基础设施不足，以及经济结构单一等。为此，玲珑轮胎项目着眼于长期可持续的改变与社会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 22.06 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 billion yuan, up 26.01% year-on-year [1] - The tire sales volume for 2024 reached 85.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.57%, primarily driven by the growth in semi-steel tires [2] - The company plans to invest 8.7 billion yuan in Brazil to build a project with an annual production capacity of 14.7 million high-performance tires, further deepening its global presence [4] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 22.06%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 7.94%, up 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 1.97 billion yuan for 2025 and 2.27 billion yuan for 2026, with an expected PE ratio of 10.6 for 2025 [5][7] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.39% from 2024 to 2027 [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 22.06 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 billion yuan, up 26.0% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.70 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7%, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, down 23% year-on-year but up 740% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s tire production reached 89.12 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.65%, while sales were 85.45 million units, up 9.57% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for 2024 was 22.06%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased to 14.92%, down 8.51 percentage points year-on-year and 1.16 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 5.98%, down 2.76 percentage points year-on-year but up 5.32 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Expansion and Investment - The Serbia base commenced production in September 2024, marking the first factory built by a Chinese tire company in Europe, with a capacity of 3 million passenger and light truck tires [2] - The company is collaborating with SUNSET S.A. in Brazil to invest 1.19 billion USD (approximately 8.71 billion yuan) in a project to produce various types of tires, expected to generate annual revenue of 1.063 billion USD and net profit of 166 million USD once operational [2] - The board has approved plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to expand financing channels [2] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.989 billion yuan, 2.375 billion yuan, and 2.852 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 10.9, 9.1, and 7.6 times respectively [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Linglong Tire is advancing its "7+5" global strategy and plans to list H-shares in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance its financing channels and support its international business development [1][9] - Linglong Tire's main products include passenger and light truck tires, truck and bus tires, and off-road tires, with a market presence in 173 countries. The company has shown stable revenue growth, with year-on-year increases of 18.6%, 9.4%, and 12.92% for the years 2022, 2023, and Q1 2025 respectively [2][5] - The company has experienced fluctuations in profit, with net profits of 1.391 billion, 1.752 billion, and 341 million yuan for the same periods, attributed to product and market structure adjustments, leading to a decline in gross margin to 15% [2][4] Group 2 - Linglong Tire is enhancing its product competitiveness through innovation and a diversified brand matrix, with new products launched in 2024 and 2025 achieving high market recognition [4][5] - The company is implementing its "7+5" global strategy, establishing seven production bases in China and five overseas, including a factory in Serbia that is expected to reach a design capacity of 12 million semi-steel tires and 2.4 million all-steel tires by 2025 [4][5] - The company is also investing 1.19 billion USD (approximately 8.71 billion yuan) in a new factory in Brazil, which is projected to further enhance its production capacity and growth expectations for 2026 [5][6] Group 3 - The global tire industry has been steadily growing since 2020, with a market size reaching 1.784 billion units in 2023, primarily driven by replacement market demand [6][7] - Linglong Tire is positioned well within the industry, with 36 Chinese companies, including Linglong, ranking among the top 75 global tire manufacturers, reflecting the increasing competitiveness of domestic brands [7][8] - The company has been actively expanding its presence in the high-end market, securing partnerships with major automotive brands and enhancing its reputation as a quality supplier [8][9] Group 4 - Linglong Tire has a stable dividend policy, distributing a total of 0.367 yuan per share in 2024, with a planned dividend of 0.07 yuan per share in Q1 2025, maintaining a payout ratio of 30% [8][9] - The company's market capitalization has significantly increased, with a premium of over 90% for investors holding shares since the beginning of the year, leading to a total shareholder return exceeding 100% [8][9]

美国普加关税，亚洲地区轮胎成本优势未必下降 目前乘用车轮胎及轻卡轮胎在232关税项下，新增税率为25%，全钢胎当前税率为10%(后续是否加征对 等关税目前仍存在不确定性)。美国轮胎有三个来源，自产、高成本地区进口和低成本地区进口，进口 自低成本地区的轮胎由于价格较低，同样的加税比例，单条轮胎关税增加的绝对值比进口自高成本地区 的更低，这样意味着进口自低成本地区的轮胎相对高成本地区更有优势。 据美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)，2024年美国进口半钢胎均价62美元/条，其中来自泰国、柬埔寨、越南半 钢胎均价在40美元/条，2024年美国进口全钢胎均117美元/条，其中来自柬埔寨、越南全钢胎均价在80- 85美元/条左右。若考虑加征25%关税，我国轮胎与北美、日韩企业轮胎价差或进一步扩大，成本优势 持续巩固。 根据2022年情境预演，大部分关税将向客户传导2022年，海运费暴涨，泰国至美国的海运费单价14美 元/条半钢胎，占轮胎价格的比例高达44%，较2020年上升约30个百分点。同时，泰国半钢胎出口至美 国的反倾销税率初裁税率为17.08%。两项叠加，企业约等于承担了60%的关税损失，2022年森麒麟泰国 工厂净利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has faced pressure on performance due to rising raw material prices, with a notable decline in earnings in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. However, the "7+5" strategic layout is progressing steadily, with the Serbia project successfully commencing production [1][6][7] - The company reported a revenue of 22.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 5.7 billion yuan, a 13% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 23% [5][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company sold 24.11 million tires, a 6.6% increase year-on-year, but faced a 91% drop in net profit compared to the same quarter last year. The average price of tire products increased by 2.5% year-on-year [6] - The company’s raw material costs rose significantly, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase in the cost of key materials [6] Strategic Initiatives - The "7+5" global strategy aims to establish 7 production bases in China and 5 overseas, enhancing the company's competitiveness in international markets. The Serbia plant is the first tire factory built by a Chinese company in Europe and is expected to drive growth in sales and profits [7][9] Market Position and Sales - The company has established a strong marketing presence, supplying tires to over 200 production bases of more than 60 major automotive manufacturers globally. It has maintained a leading position in tire supply for domestic manufacturers and has made significant inroads into the electric vehicle market [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 2.08 billion yuan and 2.41 billion yuan, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.42, 1.64, and 1.90 yuan [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Linglong Tire (601966) with a target price of 20.85 CNY, while the current price is 14.77 CNY [1][3]. Core Insights - Linglong Tire is expanding its global footprint by investing 1.19 billion USD (approximately 8.71 billion CNY) in a new production base in Brazil, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness and market share in the Americas [7][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 22.06 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, and a net profit of 1.75 billion CNY, up 26.01% year-on-year [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in net profit for Q4 2024, which was 0.41 billion CNY, down 90.6% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the latter part of the year [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Linglong Tire produced and sold 89.12 million and 85.45 million tires, respectively, marking increases of 12.65% and 9.57% year-on-year [7]. - The average selling price of tires in 2024 was 255.3 CNY per tire, a slight increase of 0.2% from 2023 [7]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 22.06%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.05 percentage points, although the margin decreased in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to rising raw material costs [7][8]. Future Projections - The report projects revenues of 27.7 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.6%, and a net profit of 2.04 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 16.4% [8]. - For 2026 and 2027, the expected revenues are 31.28 billion CNY and 34.03 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 2.72 billion CNY and 3.39 billion CNY [8].