投资要点 ❑ 中国银行 25Q1 营收同比增长 2.6%，表现好于预期，不良表现平稳。 ❑ 数据概览 25Q1 营收同比增长 2.6%，增速较 24A 提升 1.4pc；25Q1 利润同比下降 2.9%，较 24A 由增转减。2025Q1 末不良率 1.25%，较 24A 末持平；2025Q1 末拨备覆盖率 198%，较 24A 末下降 3pc。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 国有大型银行Ⅱ 中国银行(601988) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 04 日 营收好于预期 ——中国银行 2025 年一季报点评 ❑ 营收好于预期 中国银行 25Q1 营收同比增长 2.6%，增速较 24A 提升 1.4pc；25Q1 利润同比下降 2.9%。营收增速逆势回升，表现好于预期。驱动因素来看，息差拖累改善，非息 贡献加大，所得税拖累利润。①息差：25Q1 日均息差 1.29%，环比 24A 下降 11bp，同比 24Q1 下降 15bp，同比降幅较 24A 收敛 4bp，息差拖累小幅改善。② 非息：25Q1 中收较 24A 由减转增，同比增长 2.1%；其他非息同比快增 37%，增 速环比提升 2pc，主要归因汇兑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bank's Q1 2025 financial performance shows stable revenue growth but a decline in net profit growth, driven by various factors including interest margin contraction and rising costs [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q1 2025 operating revenue, PPOP, and net profit growth rates are 2.56%, -1.15%, and -2.22% respectively, with net profit growth declining compared to the previous year [1]. - Loan growth as of Q1 2025 is 8.32% year-on-year, with corporate loans increasing by 11.23% and personal loans remaining low [2][3]. - Total deposits grew by 6.24% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in deposit growth [2]. Group 2: Income Sources - Non-interest income saw a significant increase, with other non-interest income rising by 37.3% year-on-year, supported by foreign exchange gains [3]. - Fee and commission income grew by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a return to positive growth in this segment [3]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Risk - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.25%, with a provision coverage ratio of 197.97% [3]. - The bank's net interest margin contracted to 1.29%, primarily due to pressure on asset yields [4]. Group 4: Cost and Taxation - Management expenses increased by 5.70% year-on-year, contributing to a rise in the cost-to-income ratio and effective tax rate [4]. - The effective tax rate increased by 3.46% year-on-year, further impacting overall performance [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to leverage its global and comprehensive advantages for sustainable growth, with a dynamic dividend yield of 4.22% for A shares and 5.52% for H shares [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a 6-month outlook maintained [7] Core Views - The company's revenue improved due to non-interest income, with Q1 2025 revenue at 164.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. Net interest income was 107.7 billion yuan, down 4.42% year-on-year, while non-interest income rose by 18.91% to 57.2 billion yuan, becoming the main driver of revenue growth [2][3] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% and a provision coverage ratio of 198% [3] - Profitability is expected to marginally improve, with projected net profit growth of 0.03%, 2.37%, and 3.41% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the bank's total interest-earning assets reached 34.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. Loan and financial investment growth was 8.3% and 20.0% respectively [3] - The bank's total liabilities were 31.59 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%. Deposits increased by 6.2% compared to the end of 2024 [3] - The bank's earnings per share for 2025 is projected to be 0.81 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.84 [6][12] Shareholder Information - The top ten shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and E Fund Management, with slight changes in their shareholding percentages [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Bank reported a slight year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, driven primarily by non-interest income, despite a decline in net interest income and net profit [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, China Bank achieved revenue of 164.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56% [1][2]. - Net interest income was 107.7 billion yuan, down 4.42% year-on-year, accounting for 65.32% of total revenue [2]. - Non-interest income reached 57.2 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 18.91%, becoming the main driver for revenue improvement [2][3]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders was 54.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.90% [1][2]. Asset and Liability Management - As of Q1 2025, the total interest-earning assets amounted to 34.92 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [3]. - The loan and financial investment segments were key growth drivers, with year-on-year increases of 8.3% and 20.0%, respectively [3]. - The total interest-bearing liabilities stood at 31.59 trillion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, with deposits growing by 6.2% [4]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.25%, unchanged from 2024 [5]. - The provision coverage ratio was 198%, a decrease of 2.63 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [6]. Shareholder Structure - Changes in the top ten shareholders included a slight increase in the stake of the second-largest shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, and minor decreases for others [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank is expected to see marginal improvements in revenue and profit for 2024, with projected year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.03%, 2.37%, and 3.41% for 2025-2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a 6-month outlook [7] Core Views - The company's revenue improved due to non-interest income, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 164.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. Net interest income was 107.7 billion yuan, down 4.42% year-on-year, while non-interest income grew by 18.91% to 57.2 billion yuan, becoming the main driver of revenue growth [2][3] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% and a provision coverage ratio of 198% [3] - The bank's net interest margin recorded 1.29%, down 11 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 15 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the bank's total interest-earning assets amounted to 34.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. Loan and financial investment growth was 8.3% and 20.0%, respectively [3] - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities reached 31.59 trillion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, with deposits growing by 6.2% [3] - The bank's forecasted net profit for 2025 is expected to be 245.8 billion yuan, with a slight growth of 0.03% year-on-year, and projected growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are 2.37% and 3.41%, respectively [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 164.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 54.4 billion, a decrease of 2.9% [4] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 9.09%, down 0.77 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Non-interest income accounted for 34.7% of total revenue, an increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rate improved by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year, with non-interest income contributing positively [5] - The year-on-year growth rates for net interest income and non-interest income were -4.4% and 18.9%, respectively [5] - The main contributors to revenue growth were scale expansion and non-interest income, contributing 13.8 and 14.6 percentage points to performance growth [5] Asset and Loan Growth - As of the end of Q1 2025, interest-earning assets and loans grew by 7.3% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The loan-to-interest-earning asset ratio increased by 1.1 percentage points to 65% [6] - The company focused on key areas for credit support, with significant growth in loans for technology finance, small and micro enterprises, and green credit [6] Liability and Deposit Growth - Interest-bearing liabilities and deposits grew by 6.9% and 6.1% year-on-year, respectively [7] - The proportion of deposits in interest-bearing liabilities increased by 1.9 percentage points to 79.9% [7] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.29%, down 11 basis points from 2024, but the decline was less than the previous year [8] - The yield on interest-earning assets decreased to 2.96%, primarily due to LPR adjustments and the rolling repricing of existing loans [8] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income grew by 18.9% year-on-year, with net fee and commission income increasing by 2.1% to 25.65 billion [9] - The significant growth in foreign exchange net income and other business income contributed to the overall increase in non-interest income [9] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.25% as of the end of Q1 2025 [10] - The provision coverage ratio was 198%, indicating a reasonable and sufficient risk buffer [10] Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio decreased to 17.98% as of the end of Q1 2025, with core tier 1 capital ratio at 11.82% [10] - The company is expected to enhance its capital base following a planned 165 billion capital increase [10] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 0.76, 0.79, and 0.81 yuan, respectively [11] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.68, 0.63, and 0.59 for the respective years [11]

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou is actively promoting new industrialization through the "Ten Actions for Suzhou Intelligent Manufacturing," aiming to build a modern industrial system with world-class competitiveness and establish itself as a global leader in intelligent manufacturing [1] Group 1: Financial Support and Innovation - Suzhou Bank is implementing a four-dimensional strategy of "policy guidance, infrastructure development, platform empowerment, and deepened cooperation" to create an innovative ecosystem that channels financial resources into technology innovation and production capacity [2] - The bank has launched various financial service plans, including the "Comprehensive Technology Finance Service Plan" and measures for technology finance development, to support high-quality manufacturing [2] - The establishment of a three-tiered structure for technology finance centers enhances service efficiency and effectiveness for local manufacturing [2] Group 2: Technology Empowerment and Customer Engagement - Utilizing big data and AI, Suzhou Bank has developed a "Radar Platform" to provide a comprehensive profile of technology companies, improving customer engagement and marketing precision [3] - The bank has facilitated nearly 20 matchmaking events with local technology departments, serving over 400 quality technology enterprises, fostering collaboration between government, banks, and businesses [3] Group 3: Product Innovation and Specialized Support - Suzhou Bank is focusing on "specialized, refined, characteristic, and innovative" enterprises, enhancing credit loan efficiency and optimizing credit structures to support manufacturing transformation [4] - The bank has introduced a "Specialized and Innovative Loan" product that meets the needs of enterprises with limited collateral, demonstrating high approval efficiency and streamlined processes [4][5] - Since the launch of financial services for specialized enterprises, the bank has provided over 54.8 billion yuan in credit support to more than 2,600 related enterprises [5] Group 4: Regional Focus and Industry Clusters - Suzhou Bank is tailoring financial services to local industry characteristics, supporting the elevation of local industrial capabilities and the development of high-end manufacturing [6] - The bank has formed a syndicate of over 2 billion yuan for a local integrated circuit company to support the construction of a high-performance integrated circuit packaging and testing project [6][7] - The bank is exploring innovative financial models to address the financing challenges faced by technology enterprises, including a scoring card model for the biopharmaceutical sector [7][8] Group 5: Future Directions - Suzhou Bank is committed to enhancing its service ecosystem, innovating product models, and supporting local development through technology finance, contributing to the advancement of new industrialization in Suzhou [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to serving the real economy, risk prevention, and enhancing global competitiveness while promoting high-quality financial development to contribute to economic modernization. Group 1: Financial Performance and Support Initiatives - As of the end of March, the company's total assets reached 35.99 trillion yuan, a growth of 2.64% from the beginning of the year, with operating income of 164.9 billion yuan, an increase of 2.41% year-on-year [2] - The company has intensified credit support for consumption, launching a special action plan to boost consumer finance, resulting in a 7.62% increase in non-housing consumer loans compared to the beginning of the year [2] - The company has also focused on supporting private enterprises, with new loans to private enterprises increasing by 353.2 billion yuan, a growth of 7.99% [2] - In support of rural revitalization, agricultural loans increased by 262.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.49% [2] Group 2: Capital Market Support - The company supported 73 stock repurchase plans for listed companies in the first quarter, with a total loan intention amount of 25.359 billion yuan [3] - It has initiated equity investment pilot projects in 18 cities, establishing 9 pilot funds with a total subscription scale of 7.9 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Internationalization and Global Strategy - The company is committed to advancing the internationalization of the renminbi, with cross-border renminbi settlement volume increasing by 27.95% year-on-year, maintaining the largest market share [4] - It has the highest number of participating institutions in the CIPS, holding 16 seats among the 34 authorized renminbi clearing institutions globally [4] - The company is enhancing its global layout and service offerings, focusing on supporting initiatives like the Belt and Road [4] Group 4: High-Quality Financial Development - The company's technology finance loan balance increased by 570.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 29.82% [5] - It leads the market in underwriting green bond issuances, with domestic green credit balance exceeding 4 trillion yuan, growing over 10% [5] - Inclusive loans for small and micro enterprises grew by 27.63% in balance and 38.07% in the number of loan accounts, benefiting 1.65 million market entities [5] Group 5: Digital Transformation and Service Innovation - The company is building a multi-level pension financial product service system and has launched a new pension financial section in its mobile banking app [6] - It has completed the promotion of a digital marketing platform in 10 pilot branches, with monthly active users of personal mobile banking reaching 98.56 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.38% [6] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its service to the real economy, supporting major strategies and key areas to inject continuous momentum into China's modernization [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 164.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, which is an improvement of 1.4 percentage points compared to the full-year growth rate of 2024. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, reflecting a decline of 5.5 percentage points from the previous year's growth rate, primarily due to an increase in the effective tax rate [2][4] - The growth in revenue is mainly attributed to a significant increase in non-interest income, which rose by 37.3% year-on-year, while net interest income fell by 4.4% [3][4] - The company's total assets as of March 2025 amounted to 35.98 trillion yuan, with a loan total of 22.61 trillion yuan and deposits of 25.61 trillion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 2.6%, 4.7%, and 5.8% respectively since the beginning of the year [3] Financial Performance Summary - The annualized average return on total assets (ROA) is 0.66%, and the return on equity (ROE) is 9.09% [2] - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.29%, a decrease of 15 basis points year-on-year, but the decline is less severe compared to the previous year's full decline of 19 basis points [4] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.25% as of March 2025, unchanged from the beginning of the year, with a provision coverage ratio of 198%, down by 2.6 percentage points [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 241.6 billion yuan, 249.4 billion yuan, and 267.3 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.6%, 3.2%, and 7.2% [4][5] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.78 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.86 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 6.7x, 6.5x, and 6.1x, and price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.60x, 0.56x, and 0.53x [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Financial Empowerment Layout Global" held in Shenzhen emphasizes the collaboration between government, banks, and enterprises to promote high-quality development of private enterprises and support their international expansion [1][8]. Group 1: Financial Support for Private Enterprises - The China Bank Shenzhen Branch has provided significant financial services to private enterprises, with a loan balance exceeding 390 billion yuan, accounting for over 65% of private sector lending [1]. - The bank has served over 50,000 cross-border clients, facilitating the global reach of products representing "Chinese creation" [4]. Group 2: Success Stories of Private Enterprises - Kangguan Technology achieved over 15.5 billion yuan in sales last year, with over 80% from overseas markets, supported by China Bank's facilitation of foreign exchange settlement [3]. - Xinwanda has optimized costs and upgraded its supply chain by establishing production capacities in Vietnam and India, with financial backing from China Bank for its overseas projects [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - China Bank Shenzhen Branch leads in international trade settlement and cross-border RMB settlement in the Shenzhen market, enhancing its role as a financial supporter for private enterprises going global [6]. - The bank plans to implement policies to support credit for "going out" enterprises, facilitate trade and investment, and manage exchange rate risks, aligning with the "stabilizing foreign trade" initiatives [6].