1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. It indicates that the current market sentiment and stock market performance are favorable for a bond market rebound. Traders are advised not to chase the rising prices. Those with existing long positions can continue to hold, while those with empty positions should wait for price drops to build positions. [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Friday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with long - term bonds showing larger gains. Spot bond yields declined across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. There were 164.8 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion yuan. [1] 3.2. Intraday News - Over 80 senators in the US Senate are prepared to empower President Trump to impose a maximum 500% tariff on China according to Bessent. The yield of two - year US Treasury bonds dropped to the lowest level since 2022, as credit concerns drove up safe - haven demand. [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The A - share market adjusted more significantly today, with previous hot sectors experiencing sharp declines. Although the broader market has not yet broken out of the range - bound pattern, the ChiNext and STAR markets may enter a medium - term adjustment. Driven by this, treasury bond futures rose across the board, with TL performing the most prominently. [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 17 Price | 2025 - 10 - 16 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 10 - 17 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 10 - 16 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.378 | 102.368 | 0.01 | 75015 | 74561 | 454 | | TF2512 | 105.775 | 105.705 | 0.07 | 161860 | 158704 | 3156 | | T2512 | 108.265 | 108.16 | 0.105 | 266722 | 261675 | 5047 | | TL2512 | 115.73 | 115.02 | 0.71 | 184963 | 182946 | 2017 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0216 | - 0.0216 | 0 | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.013 | - 0.0228 | 0.0098 | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0256 | 0.0489 | - 0.0233 | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1525 | 0.2778 | - 0.1253 | - | - | - | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 23759 | 26753 | - 2994 | - | - | - | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 47873 | 42876 | 4997 | - | - | - | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 75516 | 62951 | 12565 | - | - | - | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 126789 | 110395 | 16394 | - | - | - | [4][5]

Macro News - The main focus is on the recent fluctuations in gold prices, with the Shanghai gold futures reporting a price of 999.80 CNY per gram, reflecting a 3.82% increase. The opening price was 968.56 CNY per gram, with a high of 1001.00 CNY and a low of 968.56 CNY [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed an open attitude towards equal consultations based on mutual respect, while the Foreign Ministry firmly opposed the U.S. linking tariff extensions to China's rare earth export controls [1] - U.S. banks reported issues related to loan fraud and bad debts, leading to a nearly 7% drop in the regional bank index and an 11% decline in Jefferies' stock [1] - There is a divergence in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution while others call for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut. The ongoing government shutdown is complicating data flow and consensus within the Fed [1] - The ongoing government shutdown has led to the Senate's tenth rejection of a temporary funding bill, contributing to market uncertainty [1] Institutional Perspectives - Precious metals are showing strong upward momentum, with significant changes in U.S. market indicators, including a decline in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, alongside a drop in U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and oil prices [1] - The rise in silver leasing rates indicates increasing risk accumulation in the U.S. financial markets, exacerbated by concerns over the potential impacts of the government shutdown and trade tariff uncertainties [1] - The exposure of loan fraud and bad debts by two U.S. banks has triggered panic selling in the market, significantly impacting the regional bank index [1] - For investment strategies in precious metals, the long-term trend may lean towards bullish, while short-term volatility is expected to increase. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach or consider short-term trading strategies [2] - Specific resistance and support levels for gold and silver are identified, with gold facing resistance at 4500 and support at 4300, while silver has resistance at 55 and support at 50 [2]

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. submitted its Hong Kong IPO prospectus on April 17, 2025, which became invalid after six months on October 17, 2025, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor [1] - Nanhua Futures is headquartered in China and focuses on providing financial services related to futures and derivatives, offering comprehensive and customized risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - The company aims to provide diversified wealth management services to both domestic and overseas investors, and it was the first futures company to be listed on the A-share market in China in August 2019, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has seen its Hong Kong IPO application expire after six months, with CITIC Securities serving as the sole sponsor during the application process [1] Company Overview - Nanhua Futures is a financial services provider headquartered in China, focusing on futures and derivatives [2] - The company offers comprehensive and customized derivative and risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - Nanhua Futures aims to provide more diversified wealth management services for both domestic and overseas investors [2] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2019, becoming the first futures company to be listed in A-shares, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has seen its Hong Kong IPO application expire after six months, with CITIC Securities serving as the sole sponsor during the application process [1] Company Overview - Nanhua Futures is a financial services provider based in China, focusing on futures and derivatives [2] - The company offers comprehensive and customized derivative and risk management services to industrial clients, financial institutions, and individual investors [2] - Nanhua Futures aims to provide more diversified wealth management services for both domestic and overseas investors [2] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2019, becoming the first futures company to be listed in A-shares, with a total market capitalization exceeding 12.5 billion RMB since its listing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The event organized by Nanhua Futures and Nanhua Fund on International Blind Day aims to enhance financial literacy and security awareness among the visually impaired community, demonstrating corporate social responsibility and humanistic care for special groups [2][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Safeguarding Financial Rights · Supporting a Better Life" included financial education and a health running activity in collaboration with the Hangzhou Blind Association [2]. - A financial education session was held at Nanhua Futures' investor education base prior to the running event [2]. Group 2: Financial Education - Qian Jun, the chairman of the Hangzhou Blind Association, emphasized the vulnerability of the visually impaired to scams due to limited access to information, highlighting the importance of financial knowledge and fraud awareness [4]. - Zhou Yufeng, chief economist of Nanhua Fund, conducted a training session on fund investment, covering types of public funds, asset allocation strategies, and key points for selecting funds, stressing the need for appropriate product matching based on risk tolerance [6]. Group 3: Employee Engagement and Social Responsibility - Nanhua Fund's assistant general manager, Song Changwei, expressed the company's commitment to corporate social responsibility, aiming to deeply disseminate financial knowledge to special groups and help them avoid scams while safeguarding their retirement funds [11]. - Employees of Nanhua participated in the event, experiencing the challenges faced by visually impaired individuals and fostering empathy and understanding through shared activities [8][11]. Group 4: Call to Action - The company encourages everyone to contribute to the inclusion of disabled individuals in society, ensuring they share in the benefits of economic development and financial rights protection [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 11 - contract of logs has returned to a deep - discount state, similar to the 09 - contract, and it is not unexpected for it to enter the delivery month with a deep discount due to the low willingness of long - position holders to take delivery. The 01 - contract has seen a significant increase in trading volume, becoming the main contract. There are marginal bullish factors for the 01 - contract, but the long - term impact is uncertain [6]. - The recommended strategy is to go short on the 11 - contract and try to go long on the 01 - contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, companies with long - position exposure can short log futures (lg2511) at a hedging ratio of 25% in the price range of 820 - 830 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase based on orders, those with short - position exposure can buy log futures (lg2511) at a hedging ratio of 25% in the price range of 780 - 800 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.3 Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The lg2511 contract closed at 797 (+4) with a decrease in open interest of 860. The lg2601 contract closed at 824 (+2.5) with an open interest of 11,000 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price remained unchanged [5]. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 831 yuan/cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 836 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the national inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters (+130,000) [6]. 3.4 Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Updated Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiata pine imports | 2025 - 08 - 31 | 1.3 million | - 0.1 million | - 3.7% | Monthly | 10,000 m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 2.99 million | + 0.13 million | + 17.3% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 1,892,000 | + 118,000 | + 71.4% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 880,900 | + 33,007 | - 11.2% | Weekly | m³ | | Demand | Average daily log outbound volume at ports | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 57,300 | - 8,300 | - 7.9% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 34,400 | 0 | + 5.2% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 10 - 10 | 17,900 | - 8,400 | - 19.0% | Weekly | 10,000 m³ | | Profit | Radiata pine import profit | 2025 - 10 - 17 | - 64 | + 1 | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 10 - 17 | - 118 | + 2 | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | Outer - market Quote | CFR | 2025 - 10 - 17 | 115 | 0 | - 7.3% | Weekly | US dollars/JASm³ | [10][12] 3.5 Basis Analysis The report provides the basis data for different specifications of logs in various regions, including the basis after conversion, which is calculated as the scaled - up spot price (108%) minus the main - contract futures price plus or minus the premium/discount [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Oscillatory and Wait-and-See" [7] Core View - The current pulp market supply-demand structure is loose, with significant pressure on the Russian needle basis, and prices remain suppressed in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and avoid blindly chasing short positions. Strategies include going long on the futures side when prices are low and selling out-of-the-money put options on the far-month options side [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 12.80% and a 3-year historical percentile of 19.7% [2] Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short pulp futures (sp2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [2] - For procurement management, when the inventory of paper-making enterprises is low and they hope to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to long pulp futures (sp2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton [2] Market Quotes - **Futures**: sp2511 closed at 4856 (+0), sp2601 closed at 5152 (-18) [3] - **Spot**: Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5500 yuan/ton (-0), Shandong Russian needle at 5000 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong Jinyu at 4250 yuan/ton (+0) [4] - **Port Inventory**: As of October 10, port inventory was 2.077 million tons (+44,000 tons) [4] - **Month Spread Structure**: Wait-and-see on the 11 - 01 reverse spread [4] Core Contradiction - Market sentiment is weak, with light spot trading. Fundamentally, the decline in the quoted price of foreign coniferous pulp, low acceptance of Russian needle spot, and slow destocking of port inventory restrict price performance. Supply pressure persists, with stable overseas coniferous pulp supply. In late August, the pulp shipped to China reached 1.67 million tons, higher than the seasonal average and a 5.7% month-on-month increase [4] - The continuous strengthening of the Russian needle basis is mainly driven by the sharp decline in futures prices, indicating the pressure on the spot market. Downstream demand is weak, with only white cardboard in the seasonal peak season. Other finished paper products face high enterprise inventory and low production profits, and the overall willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient [4] Pulp Quotation - Provides the latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and price ranges of various pulp futures contracts, domestic spot pulp, and domestic finished paper products [8] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the transfer, production cut, and price increase of overseas broadleaf pulp [11] - **Negative Factors**: High overseas shipments, high port inventory with slow destocking, weak peak-season demand downstream, and low willingness to accept Russian needle warehouse receipts [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Today, stock index fluctuated widely with different trends for large - and small - cap stocks. Large - cap index closed up, while small - and medium - cap index continued to decline. High - dividend sectors represented by banks and cyclical industries such as food and beverage and medicine led the rise, driving the large - cap index up [5]. - Trading volume continued to shrink. After two months, the trading volume of the two markets dropped below two trillion yuan, and the margin trading ratio also declined rapidly, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment. With lack of volume support and dull information, short - term volatile market will continue [5]. - Short - term trend trading is difficult to capture due to wide market fluctuations. Index futures cross - variety arbitrage can be tried. Considering market risk aversion suppressing small - cap stocks and the decreasing popularity of high - valued technology leaders, the relative advantage of large - cap index is expected to continue periodically [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Stock index trends were mixed today. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.26%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 141.721 billion yuan. In the index futures market, IF rose with decreasing volume, IH rose with increasing volume, and IC and IM fell with decreasing volume [3]. Important Information - On October 16, 2025, at the Sustainable Global Leaders Conference, Bi Xiaoying of the CSRC said that the CSRC will guide the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges to enrich the compilation guidelines based on the "Guidelines for Information Disclosure of Sustainable Development Reports of Listed Companies" according to enterprise needs, and conduct policy evaluation after mandatory disclosure next year to optimize the disclosure system [4]. - Trump claimed that India promised to stop buying Russian oil, and India responded that it prioritizes consumer interests. The Chinese Foreign Ministry opposed the US using China - related issues in trade negotiations [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the trading opportunity of going long on IF and short on IM [6]. Futures Market Observation | Index |主力日内涨跌幅（%）|成交量（万手）|成交量环比（万手）|持仓量（万手）|持仓量环比（万手）| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.38 | 15.3473 | - 0.2094 | 27.4819 | - 0.228 | | IH | 0.80 | 7.6311 | 0.5009 | 10.3884 | 0.6373 | | IC | - 1.01 | 15.8548 | - 2.4066 | 25.3051 | - 0.8459 | | IM | - 0.95 | 24.9753 | - 4.3401 | 35.5481 | - 1.475 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.10 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.25 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.28 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1931.138 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (billion yuan) | - 141.721 | [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Xia Yingying - Research Assistant: Yu Weihan [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China during the wet season is ending, which will slow down and potentially decrease the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected, showing a slow - down trend. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of inventory accumulation will ease [4]. - **Demand**: The demand from the organic silicon industry has limited changes, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy field remains stable. The polysilicon sector is expected to see a steady increase in demand for industrial silicon in the next two months [4]. - **Market Outlook**: If the supply - side operating rate declines as expected and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - **Core Logic**: The price trend of polysilicon futures depends on factors such as the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform in October, the pressure of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November, the stability and increase of component bid - winning prices, and the increase of photovoltaic grid - connected electricity prices [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term trading focus is on whether the storage platform will be established in October, and then it will shift to the expectation game of concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation in November. High volatility and risks are associated with polysilicon futures [10]. Summary by Catalog Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8605 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan (0.41%) and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan (- 0.41%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 209,588 lots, a daily decrease of 15,480 lots (- 6.88%) and a weekly decrease of 943 lots (- 0.45%) [13]. - The open interest of the main contract is 131,649 lots, a daily decrease of 10,732 lots (- 7.54%) and a weekly decrease of 44,914 lots (- 25.44%) [13]. 2. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8750 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 100 yuan (- 1.13%) [21]. - The price of 553 industrial silicon in Tianjin is 9250 yuan/ton, with a daily and weekly decrease of 50 yuan (- 0.54%) [21]. - The price of 421 industrial silicon in Yunnan is 9950 yuan/ton, with no daily or weekly change [21]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The total warehouse - receipt volume is 50,291 lots, a decrease of 66 lots (0.21%) from the previous period [36]. - The warehouse - receipt volume in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 223 tons (0.84%) week - on - week [36]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1710 yuan (3.36%) and a weekly increase of 1810 yuan (3.57%) [37]. - The trading volume of the main contract is 266,129 lots, a daily decrease of 10,047 lots (- 3.64%) and a weekly increase of 64,818 lots (32.20%) [37]. - The open interest of the main contract is 78,885 lots, a daily decrease of 1229 lots (- 1.53%) and a weekly decrease of 6102 lots (- 7.18%) [37]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material is 52.75 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.2 yuan (0.38%) [45]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers (G10 - 182, 130um) is 1.35 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [45]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 85 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1710 yuan (- 95.26%) and a weekly decrease of 1510 yuan (- 94.67%) [55]. - The total polysilicon warehouse - receipt volume is 7950 lots, a decrease of 100 lots from the previous period [56].