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油料产业周报:节前购销放缓,关注USDA报告指引-20260210
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 11:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on the weakening spot market with significant north - south differences. Domestic soybean inventories in oil mills are decreasing, while soybean meal inventories are rising as downstream procurement is completed. The US soybean market is strong in the short - term due to US procurement statements and biodiesel policies. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to rebound in the short - term following US soybean costs but may be constrained by new supplies in the far - month contracts [1]. - Rapeseed meal is weak due to rumors of increased Canadian rapeseed imports and the start of Australian rapeseed crushing. Its independent upward trend is difficult to sustain despite low valuations [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of soybeans is seasonally decreasing, while demand from feed mills is at a high level. In the long - term, the cost of soybeans remains firm, but import profits are slightly falling. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to recover, and South American soybean production is likely to be abundant, which will put pressure on domestic meal prices [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - **Soybean Meal**: Spot prices are weakening with large north - south differences. Domestic oil mill soybean inventories are down, but soybean meal inventories are up as downstream procurement is finished. The US soybean market is strong in the short - term, and the domestic market may follow in the short - term but face supply constraints in the far - month [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rumors of Canadian rapeseed imports and the start of Australian rapeseed crushing have led to a weak market. Independent upward trends are hard to sustain due to limited pre - holiday demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations** - **Base - price Strategy**: Unpriced basis should be priced after the decline in Brazilian premiums in March next year. For priced basis, be cautious of pre - holiday sales. After the Lunar New Year, consider fixed - price purchases [17]. - **Spread Strategy**: Exit the M3 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage [17]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2605 contracts, expecting it to return to a normal range [17]. - **Industry Customer Operation Recommendations** - **Price Range Forecast**: Soybean meal is expected to be in the range of 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 6.0%. Rapeseed meal is expected to be in the range of 2250 - 2750 yuan/ton with a volatility of 13.5% and a historical percentile of 10.8% [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures [19]. - **Basic Data Overview** - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are provided, along with the prices and changes of CBOT soybeans, the offshore RMB, and various spreads [20]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs and pressing profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, as well as Canadian rapeseed, are presented [21][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events - **This Week's Important Information** - **Positive Information**: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is 16% as of February 5. Recent rainfall in Brazil is beneficial for the remaining soybeans. Argentina is expected to have more rainfall, which may improve the situation. The US Treasury issued rules for biofuel tax credits [23][24]. - **Negative Information**: High US soybean prices may attract new - season planting. Brazilian and Argentine harvest progress is ahead of last year. The US reported a sale of 264,000 tons of soybeans to China. Trump said China may increase soybean purchases [24][25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream near - month physical inventories are at a high level, and far - month basis transactions are active, but the near - month basis is uncertain [25]. - **Next Week's Important Events** - USDA export inspection report, domestic weekly inventory data, and Brazilian Secex weekly report on Monday [29] - USDA monthly supply - demand report [29] - USDA export sales report on Thursday [31] - CFTC agricultural positions on Saturday [31] 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation** - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market is oscillating weakly at the valuation bottom, and rapeseed meal's rebound is limited. The capital flow shows a bearish sentiment in the soybean meal options market. The futures spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintain a B - structure, and the 3 - 5 spreads are weakening. The basis of both is also weakening [30][36][40]. - **Foreign Market**: The US soybean market rose sharply due to China's potential purchase but was suppressed by Brazil's high - yield prospects. The CFTC data shows that managed funds are turning bullish, but less so than last time [52][57]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Production Area Profit Tracking**: The crushing profits in the US soybean production area are slightly rising, while those in Brazil are slightly falling due to increased freight. Argentina's crushing profits are rising, and Canada's rapeseed crushing profits are slightly increasing [61]. - **Import - Export and Pressing Profit Tracking**: Simple valuation based on import prices may be ineffective in the first quarter. Chinese procurement of US soybeans is less economical than that of Brazilian soybeans. The import - pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are weakening, and those of Australian rapeseed are negative [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction** - **US**: The upcoming 2 - month USDA report is expected to be bearish, with little adjustment to the supply side and possible reduction in demand or no adjustment to exports and an increase in crushing. The ending stocks are expected to remain around 300 million bushels. However, if China purchases 800,000 tons of US soybeans, the ending stocks may drop significantly. The crushing volume is likely to increase [91][92]. - **South America**: The 2 - month USDA report is expected to slightly reduce Argentina's production due to drought, slightly increase or keep unchanged Brazil's production, and slightly increase Paraguay's production. South America is expected to have a bumper harvest [93]. - **Domestic Supply - Side Deduction**: The arrival of imported soybeans in the second quarter of next year will put pressure on the M05 contract. The supply pressure is expected to return after the second quarter [94]. - **Domestic Demand - Side Deduction**: The domestic soybean supply in the first quarter is relatively abundant, and the crushing volume is expected to remain high. The consumption of soybean meal is unlikely to increase significantly after the previous high - level procurement [98]. - **Domestic Inventory - Side Deduction**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but will decline in the first quarter. The soybean meal inventory will also show a seasonal decline, reaching a minimum of about 500,000 tons at the end of the first quarter next year [100].
Nanhua Futures of Hengdian Group gains Nodal Exchange membership
Globenewswire· 2026-02-10 07:37
Company Overview - Nanhua USA has gained trading membership on Nodal Exchange, becoming the first and only Chinese futures firm able to trade and clear related products listed on the exchange [1] - Nanhua USA is a subsidiary of Nanhua Futures, which provides comprehensive financial services including brokerage, asset management, and commodity trading [4] Market Position - Nodal Exchange holds a 56% share of the U.S. electricity futures market and offers over 1,000 location-specific contracts in North American power, natural gas, and environmental derivatives [2] - Nanhua Futures has established a full-license framework for multinational operations, covering memberships at 19 major global exchanges and clearing qualifications with 15 core clearinghouses [6] Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, Nanhua Futures' international business revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 68% [4] - As of June 2025, HGNH achieved client equity under overseas brokerage operations of HKD 17.8 billion [4] Service Capabilities - Nanhua Futures provides uninterrupted 24/7 services across key international financial hubs: Hong Kong, London, Chicago, and Singapore [5] - The company offers an integrated "trading plus clearing" solution in U.S. power and energy markets, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [2][3]
险期为翼,南华期货托举广西贵港生猪产业振兴
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-02-10 02:52
展望未来,贵港市生猪"保险+期货"模式仍有较大的升级空间。一方面,南华期货将继续积累价格上行 风险管理、生猪全周期服务等领域的经验,进一步优化产品设计和运作流程,探索"保险+期货+N"的多 元化融合模式;另一方面,将进一步扩大项目覆盖范围,助力贵港生猪产业向规模化、标准化、高质量 方向发展。 从政策引领到市场实践,从风险保障到产业赋能,广西贵港生猪"保险+期货"模式的探索之路,彰显了 金融服务实体经济的初心使命。这一模式的不断完善和推广,必将为贵港市乡村振兴注入更加强劲的动 力,为广西乃至全国生猪产业的稳健发展提供可复制、可推广的"贵港经验"。 相较于传统帮扶模式,贵港市"保险+期货"项目在实践中不断探索,南华期货针对当地生猪产业的实际 需求,精准施策,对症下药。项目坚持以中小养殖户为重点服务对象,鼓励以合作组织形式参与投保, 明确了单个项目不允许以单一企业形式投保的原则,使金融资源向一线养殖群体倾斜。针对中小农户养 殖规模小、抗风险能力弱的特点,项目积极争取了补贴资金,大大降低了农户投保成本压力,使中小农 户能够"买得起、用得上",彰显了金融支农的普惠初心。 该模式在贵港市的持续推进和创新发展,不仅有效化解 ...
金融期货早评-20260210
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 02:43
金融期货早评 宏观:日英变局推升全球市场风险,自身根基是避险关键 【市场资讯】1)沪深北交易所宣布优化再融资一揽子措施。2)英国政坛突发"黑天鹅"。 因英国前驻美国大使曼德尔森涉爱泼斯坦案,英国首相幕僚长摩根·麦克斯威、公关总监蒂 姆·艾伦先后引咎辞职。苏格兰工党领袖公开呼吁英国首相斯塔默辞职,但英国首相府发言 人表示,斯塔默不会辞职。3)美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示,美国就业增长数 据预计将出现放缓,但这并不意味着经济增长势头减弱,而是反映了劳动力市场结构性变 化。1 月非农就业报告将于周三公布,市场预计将新增就业约 7 万人。4)法国央行行长维 勒鲁瓦意外提前至 6 月卸任。5)日本首相高市早苗表示,将推动全国范围内的食品减税 讨论,并明确承诺不会为此发行赤字债券。她强调,将通过非税收入和补贴审查等方式筹 措资金,在确保财政可持续性的前提下迅速实施减税。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】2026 年初全球金融市场波动加剧,日本大选落地后的右翼政治走 向,与英国突发的政坛危机形成共振,进一步推升市场不确定性,两国的乱局本质都是内 部经济矛盾向外传导的结果。日本第 51 届众议院选举中,高市早苗带领自民党拿下 ...
南华期货拟向横华国际增资12.03亿港元
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2026-02-09 22:42
南华期货2月9日晚间发布公告称,拟向境外全资子公司横华国际金融股份有限公司(简称横华国际)增 资12.03亿港元(约合10.72亿元人民币)。 南华期货表示,本次公司使用募集资金对全资子公司横华国际增资,计划加强中国香港、英国、美国及 新加坡的境外附属公司的资本基础,以进一步扩展公司的境外业务、优化公司的境外业务架构,以及提 升公司在全球市场的竞争力及风险应对能力。 (文章来源:期货日报网) ...
南华期货股份有限公司第五届董事会第五次会议决议公告
证券代码:603093 证券简称:南华期货 公告编号:2026-004 南华期货股份有限公司 第五届董事会第五次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")第五届董事会第五次会议于2026年2月9日以现场和通讯相结 合的方式召开,本次会议的通知于2026年2月5日以电话、电子邮件等方式向全体董事发出,由董事长罗 旭峰先生主持。本次会议应出席董事9人,实际出席董事9人。公司董事会秘书出席本次会议。公司高级 管理人员列席会议。 本次会议的召集、召开及表决程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等法律、行政法规和部门规章以及 《公司章程》的规定,会议决议合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 本次会议审议并通过如下议案: 审议通过《关于对境外全资子公司增资的议案》 具体内容详见同日在上海证券交易所网站(www.sse.com.cn)上披露的《南华期货股份有限公司关于对 境外全资子公司增资的议案》(公告编号:2026-005) 本议案已经公司董事会战略委员会审议通过 ...
H股刚上市,这家期货公司大举“出海”
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2026-02-09 15:31
刚刚完成H股上市的南华期货,要将全部12.03亿港元的IPO募资用于境外子公司横华国际的增资,增资后,南华期货对横华国际的出 资金额将达到20.29亿港元。横华国际是南华期货在境外从事期货、证券等金融服务的平台。 12亿港元全部增资境外子公司 【导读】南华期货(603093)H股12亿港元募资全部增资境外子公司横华国际 期货公司也在积极"出海"。 南华期货表示,本次交易实施尚需履行中国行政机关关于资金出境及对外投资的相关批准、备案手续。 2月9日晚间,南华期货披露,拟对境外全资子公司横华国际金融股份有限公司(以下简称横华国际)进行增资,增资金额为12.03亿 港元,按中国人民银行公布的2026年2月6日人民币汇率中间价换算,约合人民币10.72亿元。 南华期货也提示,横华国际业务受宏观经济环境、国际政治环境、行业环境、企业自身经营管理等多方面影响,公司对横华国际增资 所产生的效益,存在不确定性。公司与横华国际将严格遵循相关监管规定,加强内控管理工作。 南华期货对横华国际的增资资金,来自H股IPO募资。南华期货股份刚于2025年12月在H股上市,募资净额正是12.03亿港元。在南华 期货H股的招股书中,南华期货 ...
南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告:巴西收获进展加速,阿根廷关注降水
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 12:01
南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告 ——— 巴西收获进展加速,阿根廷关注降水 靳晚冬(投资咨询资格证号:Z0022725) 联系邮箱:jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月09日 本周重要气象提示 1、巴西:2025/26年度大豆收割进度完成16.55%,高于去年同期的9.84%。中西部地区来看,马托格罗索州 大豆收割进度已达已播种面积的39.61%,单周收割进度推进14.64%,远高于去年同期的28.58%,干燥天气 有利于中北部,北部和西部地区收割加速推进,已收获单产超过初期预估;戈亚斯州西南部旱作区的收获正 在加速,但由于降雨过多,收获单产表现不一,部分地区出现籽粒较轻,质量下降的现象;南马托格罗索州 南部部分地区的大豆缺水导致生产潜力下降,其他地区长势仍保持优秀,整体来看97.7%的大豆评级在良好 以上;米纳斯吉拉斯州大豆继续维持良好生长,但近期降雨过多延误了灌溉区的收获。南部地区来看,巴拉 那州西部地区的收获工作正在进行,而高温少雨影响了大豆单产潜力,并加速了大豆成熟;在南里奥格兰德 州,种植期已经延长,在头茬玉米收割后的区域播种作业仍在继续。整体来看已 ...
南华期货:2月9日召开董事会会议
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-02-09 10:45
每经AI快讯,南华期货2月9日晚间发布公告称,公司第五届第五次董事会会议于2026年2月9日以现场 和通讯相结合的方式召开。会议审议了《关于对境外全资子公司增资的议案》等文件。 (记者 张明双) 每经头条(nbdtoutiao)——美国名校毕业刚回国,26岁"金少"空降成董事长和总经理,父母隐退!A股 多位"00后"执掌要职,"不负投资者"成重大考验 ...
南华期货股份使用募集资金对全资子公司横华国际增资
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-09 10:11
本次公司使用募集资金对全资子公司横华国际增资,计划加强中国香港、英国、美国及新加坡的境外附 属公司的资本基础,以进一步扩展公司的境外业务、优化公司的境外业务架构,以及提升公司于全球市 场的竞争力及风险应对能力。本次增资行为未改变募集资金用途,不存在与募投项目的实施计划相抵触 的情况,不存在变相改变募集资金投向和损害股东利益的情况。追加内容 本文作者可以追加内容哦 ! 南华期货股份(02691)发布公告,公司于2026年2月9日召开的第五届董事会第五次会议,以9票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权的表决结果审议通过了《关于对境外全资子公司增资的议案》。投资金额为12.03亿港 币(10.72亿元人民币,按中国人民银行公布的2026年2月6日人民币汇率中间价1港币=0.89080元人民币换 算) 。 南华期货股份(02691)发布公告,公司于2026年2月9日召开的第五届董事会第五次会议,以9票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权的表决结果审议通过了《关于对境外全资子公司增资的议案》。投资金额为12.03亿港 币(10.72亿元人民币,按中国人民银行公布的2026年2月6日人民币汇率中间价1港币=0.89080元人民币换 算) ...