Core Viewpoint - Zinc futures on the Shanghai market showed a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 25,130.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.20% [1] Market Data Summary - As of January 14, LME zinc inventory stood at 106,725 tons, a decrease of 175 tons, with registered warrants at 97,875 tons and canceled warrants at 8,850 tons, representing 8.29% of the total [2] - On January 14, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total long position of 147,100 contracts and a short position of 141,800 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.04. The net position increased by 477 contracts compared to the previous day, totaling 5,341 contracts [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a zinc warehouse receipt of 33,262 tons on January 14, down 351 tons from the previous trading day. Over the past week, the total decline in warehouse receipts was 7,657 tons, a decrease of 18.71%, and over the past month, the decline was 17,441 tons, a decrease of 34.40% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that macro sentiment impact is weakening, with upstream raw material supply tightening and zinc smelting supply reducing. As the holiday approaches, downstream zinc operating rates are gradually declining, leading to rigid consumption sentiment in the high-priced zinc market. The rebalancing of domestic and international inventories may reopen the import window, potentially supplementing domestic supply. The basic supply-demand reality is weak, suggesting a short-term high-level oscillation, with a reference price range for the main Shanghai zinc contract between 23,000 and 24,500 CNY/ton [4] - Nanhua Futures indicated that the TC in January continues to decline, with the core issue being the tight domestic raw material supply. However, due to rising by-product prices, zinc smelting can maintain production at lower processing fees, keeping January output at a high level. From a long-term perspective, supply is expected to be loose, with the import window likely to open as LME continues to deliver. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream terminal consumption. Domestic inventory reduction supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory has surpassed 100,000 tons. Looking ahead, while the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc have potential for bullish sentiment, there is significant hedging pressure above, maintaining a view of strong oscillation [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lithium carbonate market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and showing weakness in performance [1][2] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened at 163,840.0 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 165,000.0 yuan and a minimum of 156,180.0 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.16% [1] - Market sentiment has diverged recently, influenced by policy benefits and expectations for energy storage demand, but profit-taking and weak fundamentals have led to a market adjustment phase [2] Group 2 - Demand for energy storage batteries has increased by 0.99% month-on-month, but there is a notable decline in the production of power batteries as the market enters a low season [2] - Inventory pressure is becoming evident, with an expected accumulation of over 5,000 tons in January [2] - Despite short-term supply and demand weakening, medium-term support is anticipated from policy tightening, high growth in energy storage demand, and increased processing fees [2] Group 3 - The current high volatility of lithium carbonate futures indicates significant market trading risks, and the sustainability of continued price increases remains uncertain [3] - There is a strong demand for spot purchases of lithium carbonate ahead of the Spring Festival, suggesting that the industry may exhibit "not dull in the off-season" characteristics [3] - Investors are advised to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for market risks to be fully released before considering low-price entry opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices experienced a surge followed by a decline, maintaining a strong performance in the night session, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The release of the U.S. CPI data has led to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts, despite officials indicating that current data does not support such actions [1] Supply Dynamics - There are ongoing concerns regarding the underperformance of tin production in Myanmar and the challenges faced by Indonesia in maintaining high export levels [1] Short-term Outlook - Attention is required on the upcoming export data from Indonesian exchanges, as well as the impact of pre-Spring Festival inventory accumulation and downstream feedback [1] - The expectation is that tin prices may still have upward momentum under a bullish trend, with a focus on buying on dips [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a detailed analysis of the soybean weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, including sowing progress, growth stages, and potential impacts of rainfall on yields [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - Overall sowing progress reached 98.2%, with most crops in the reproductive growth stage, 32.8% in the flowering stage, 41.3% in the filling stage, 23.1% mature, and 0.53% in the harvest stage, leading last year by 0.05% [1][16] - In Mato Grosso state, the harvest has begun with a progress of 1.98%, faster than last year's 0.7% and the five - year average of 1.09%, but less rainfall may affect unharvested yields [1][16] - In Mato Grosso do Sul state, crop physiological development is normal, but effective rainfall is needed in the east and southwest. 85.7% of the farmland is in "good" condition [1][16] - In Goias state, sowing is completed, climate conditions are favorable, and areas sown at the beginning of the sowing window have entered the maturity stage, with harvesting即将开始 [1][16] - In Minas Gerais state, regular rainfall and temperature differences are beneficial for oilseed crop growth, but hail in the northwest damaged some crops [1][17] - In Rio Grande do Sul state, rainfall maintains good soil moisture, but crops sown in low - lying areas show signs of rust, partially affecting yields [1][17] - In Parana state, the western part has started harvesting, and rainfall is beneficial for crop growth [1][17] Argentina - Soybean sowing progress increased 6.3% week - on - week to 88.3%, about 10% behind the previous year [2][37] - Nearly 100% of the crops in the current production area are in excellent or good condition, and 99% have suitable moisture conditions [2][37] - 10% of the first - sown soybean area has entered the flowering stage, and 40% are gradually entering the key reproductive water - demanding period. The second - season soybean sowing area is 84% complete, mostly in the vegetative growth stage [2][37] - Less rainfall in the next two weeks may affect soil moisture in some areas [2] International Soybean Annual Focus Points - Different months have different focus points, such as US soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [56] Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Different growth stages (planting, flowering, growing, harvesting) have different temperature, moisture requirements, and disaster risks [64]

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant surge, with COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and Shanghai silver futures rising by 14%, driven by concerns over Federal Reserve independence, geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, and de-dollarization trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $4612 per ounce, while COMEX silver hit $84.69 per ounce, with a peak intraday increase of over 6% [2]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures peaked at 1031 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose by 14%, closing at 20945 yuan per kilogram, with all seven distant month contracts hitting the limit [2]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw all six base metal futures contracts close higher, with LME tin and copper rising approximately 5% and 2%, respectively [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including the investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is seen as a long-term threat to the Fed's independence, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions and central banks' continuous gold accumulation [2][6]. - The U.S. labor department reported a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls for December, which, combined with a declining unemployment rate and a weakening dollar, provided new support for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Risk Signals - High volatility risks are evident, with global futures exchanges frequently intervening and increasing trading margins for precious metals [3]. - The recent announcement from the Shanghai Gold Exchange highlighted significant price fluctuations and rising uncertainties, prompting a warning for members to monitor market changes closely [3]. Group 4: ETF Adjustments - To manage high inflows, gold ETFs have begun to limit subscriptions, with E Fund's gold ETF announcing a suspension of subscriptions starting January 16, aimed at protecting holder interests and ensuring stable fund operations [8]. - The adjustment in subscription terms includes raising the minimum subscription unit and streamlining the physical redemption contracts, which is expected to mitigate tracking errors due to premium discrepancies [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing central bank gold purchases, combined with the irreversible trend of global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, will continue to support the upward trajectory of precious metals [7]. - Bloomberg Commodity Index's adjustment of gold and silver weightings is expected to create selling pressure, particularly on silver, which may experience greater volatility due to its smaller market size [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Nanhua Futures indicates an expected surge in lithium battery exports before the end of April, maintaining a positive outlook on lithium carbonate demand [1] Industry Summary - The long-term growth logic for lithium carbonate demand in three key downstream application areas—energy storage, new energy passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles—remains fundamentally unchanged [1] - The industry fundamentals continue to support the long-term value of lithium carbonate [1] Price Dynamics - There is a need to be cautious about the rapid increase in lithium carbonate prices and related non-ferrous metal prices, as this may erode the economic viability in the energy storage and commercial vehicle sectors [1] - Such price increases could potentially suppress the elasticity of downstream demand in the short term [1]

Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 0.18% on January 8, with *ST Panda leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the diversified financial sector included: - Yalian Development (002316) with a closing price of 5.19, up 9.96% and a trading volume of 242,600 shares [1] - *ST Rendo (002647) closed at 8.38, up 5.01% with a trading volume of 175,300 shares [1] - Zhejiang Dongfang (600120) closed at 6.84, up 4.43% with a trading volume of 2,004,800 shares [1] - Other stocks with minor gains included Bohai Leasing (000415), Lakala (300773), and Haide Shares (000567) [1] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 175 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 256 million yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Zhejiang Dongfang had a significant net inflow of 158 million yuan from institutional investors, while Yalian Development experienced a net outflow of 25.39 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The main contract for silicon iron futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 5686.00 yuan, with a current price of 688.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.84% [1] - Institutions have varying views on the future of silicon iron prices, with expectations of price fluctuations around cost valuation levels due to high overall costs and seasonal demand pressures [2] - The overall trend of silicon iron prices is heavily dependent on energy price changes, with current coal prices providing some support to costs [3] Group 2 - The production of silicon iron is currently low, and major steel mills are still showing a willingness to replenish stocks before the winter season [3] - Despite an increase in iron alloy production and inventory accumulation, the downside for iron alloys is limited due to cost support and recent positive trends in bulk commodities [3] - The market outlook suggests a cautious approach to bearish positions, considering the potential for cost support and disruptions in coal production [3]

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as outlined in the "Suggestions" from the 20th Central Committee, emphasizing the importance of modernizing the industrial system and strengthening the real economy [1][3] - The company, Nanhua Futures, is actively promoting the learning and implementation of the 20th Central Committee's spirit among its employees, focusing on serving the real economy and supporting initiatives like rural revitalization and the Belt and Road Initiative [2][3] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures has developed a "three-step" plan to ensure the effective dissemination of the 20th Central Committee's spirit, which includes organized learning sessions, sharing meetings, and online knowledge tests [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of a modern industrial system as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, focusing on enhancing the self-control level of the industrial chain and promoting high-quality development in key manufacturing sectors [3][4] Group 3 - Nanhua Futures has expanded its services from traditional brokerage to include over-the-counter derivatives, basis trading, and market-making, providing comprehensive risk management solutions for clients [4][5] - The company has launched various innovative risk management tools and services, such as the "Futures Stabilization Order" project and "Insurance + Futures" initiatives, to address the needs of the real economy [5][6] Group 4 - The company has established an international business network to support the "Belt and Road" initiative and the development of outward-oriented enterprises, focusing on risk management and value-added services [7][8] - Nanhua Futures has set up branches in key global financial markets, including the US, Singapore, and the UK, providing a range of financial services and facilitating foreign investment in China [8]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 南華期貨股份有限公司 FF301 FF301 呈交日期: 2026年1月7日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02691 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 107,659,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 107,659,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 107,659,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 107,659,000 | | 2 ...