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白糖产业风险管理日报-20251009
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 09:38
白糖产业风险管理日报 2025/10/09 边舒扬(投资咨询证号:Z0012647 ) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 白糖近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5200-5700 | 6.50% | 2.2% | source: 南华研究,wind,同花顺 白糖风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高,担心 糖价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失,可以根据企业的库存情 况,做空郑糖期货来锁定利润,弥补企业的生产 成本 | SR2511 | 卖出 | 50% | 5600-56 50 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本,若糖价上涨 还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | SR601C5700 ...
四大股指均突破前高
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 09:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market rose with increased trading volume today. Among the scale - based indices, the CSI 500 index showed the strongest performance. In the industry, affected by the gold price increase due to the US government shutdown during the holiday and the export control of rare earths, the non - ferrous metals sector led the gain. The technology concept was boosted by chip - related information, with the STAR 50 index rising over 5% during the session and closing up 2.93%. Overseas stock indices performed strongly during the holiday, providing a positive sentiment basis. The stock index gap - opened higher in the morning, and the upward movement during the session was mainly driven by structural positive factors. The upward trend converged after the lunch break. The short - term structural pull is expected to continue. After the stock index continuously broke new highs, the overall sentiment is positive, and the trend is expected to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is advisable to continue holding positions and wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index continued to rise today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.48%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 471.868 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increased volume [2]. Important Information - The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3900 points in the morning, hitting a 10 - year high, and the gold and controllable nuclear fusion concepts exploded. - The Ministry of Commerce announced the decision to implement export control on overseas rare earth items and related technologies. - The US approved NVIDIA to sell chips worth billions of dollars to the UAE [6]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday % change | 1.47 | 1.25 | 1.74 | 0.56 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.5848 | 5.9716 | 15.5474 | 21.3729 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 2.5179 | 1.214 | 2.6918 | - 0.3141 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.7075 | 10.3573 | 26.8356 | 35.3076 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.4919 | 0.4378 | 2.1599 | 0.1437 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite % change | 1.32 | | Shenzhen Component % change | 1.47 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.47 | | Total trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2653.197 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 471.786 | [7]
南华期货早评-20251009
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 02:11
金融期货早评 宏观:国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1)美联储纪要:多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜,少数人本来可能支持 9 月不降息。2)美国政府关门逾一周还无解:参议院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。3)美 国国会预算办公室:上财年美国联邦政府预算赤字 1.8 万亿美元,与 2024 财年近乎持平。 4)普京:必须确保特别军事行动设定的所有目标都无条件实现。俄副外长:俄美元首会晤 推力已基本耗尽,"战斧"导弹可致局势本质变化。5)消息人士称哈马斯已同意加沙停火协 议,特朗普:以色列与哈马斯已签署"20 点计划"第一阶段协议,本周末或去中东。 【核心逻辑】国内方面,国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天,全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次,环比增长 2.4%,同比增长 7%;假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高,水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过,国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看,后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前,供需两端政策正逐步推进, 后续或仍有增量政策出台,以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是,政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑,且政策基调仍以托底为主。而海 ...
贵金属2025年四季度展望:再创新高,强势延续
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 11:37
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward cycle of gold is not over, and any adjustment in gold prices should be seen as a buying opportunity on dips. The long - term trend of gold is anchored to its monetary attribute, and with the decline of the US dollar currency system, global central banks will increase their gold allocation and reduce their US dollar allocation. [2][120] - In the fourth quarter, central bank gold purchases will act as a support, and investment demand will be the driving force. Investment demand will shift from uncertain hedging transactions to interest - rate cut transactions on the monetary policy side. The target price of London gold in Q4 2025 will move up to the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce, and the domestic price will be in the range of 820 - 900 yuan/gram. [2][121] - Silver trends generally follow gold, but there are differences in fundamentals and volatility. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce, and the domestic price is 10000 - 12000 yuan/kilogram. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended. [3][121] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Precious Metals Market Review - In 2025, the domestic and foreign precious metals markets continued the bull market in 2024, with strong upward momentum and the relative strength of gold and silver switching. The foreign market outperformed the domestic market, mainly due to the appreciation of the RMB. [9] - In the third quarter, the precious metals market had both synchronization and differentiation. Gold started to break through upwards in late August, silver followed gold's upward movement in late August after a period of adjustment, and platinum's price moved up following gold and silver after a large - scale fluctuation in July. [9] - As of September 19, 2025, all precious metals showed significant price increases compared to the end of 2024, with COMEX silver having the highest increase of 48.05%, and the gold - to - silver ratio decreased by 3.75%. [19] 2. Cross - Market Price Difference Fluctuations Caused by Concerns over US Tariff Policies - From late last year to the first quarter of this year, concerns about the US imposing gold import tariffs led to large - scale arbitrage trading, pushing up the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold. Similar arbitrage transactions have occurred multiple times since November 2024. [23] - In the third quarter of this year, a similar story of cross - market price differences in precious metals repeated. In July, the premium of COMEX futures over London spot in the gold, silver, platinum, and palladium markets widened rapidly due to concerns that the US might extend copper import tariff measures to precious metals. [26] 3. Broad Monetary Expectations Boost Precious Metals Valuation and Investment Demand 3.1 Q3 Real Interest Rate Decline Boosts Gold Valuation - In August, the enhanced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut pushed down the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate, thereby boosting the valuation of gold. Although the non - farm payroll report in early August was far below expectations, the lack of a clear signal from the Fed and the time interval between FOMC meetings limited the increase in precious metals prices. [33] - During the period of increasing interest - rate cut expectations, the US dollar index remained resilient, with a limited depreciation range. Except for the Swedish krona, the other five major currencies depreciated against the US dollar in Q3 2025, with the Japanese yen having the largest depreciation. [35] 3.2 The Fed's Monetary Easing Expectation is the Main Cause of the Decline in Real Interest Rates - The mid - to long - term decline in the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds is mainly driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut and easing expectations. At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Market expectations indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates 1.728 times by the end of this year and 4.317 times by the end of 2026. [41] - The dot - plot of the September FOMC meeting shows that most Fed officials expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year and once each in 2026 and 2027. Compared with June, the expected number of interest - rate cuts has increased due to the Fed's shift towards the employment side in balancing inflation and employment. [45] - The Fed's September economic forecast shows an upward revision of the GDP growth rate forecast for 2025 - 2027, a downward revision of the unemployment rate forecast for 2026 and 2027, and an upward revision of the PCE forecast, reflecting the Fed officials' increased concern about inflation and reduced concern about the economy. [49] 3.3 The Fed's Broad Monetary Policy Still Has Room for Strengthening - In the fourth quarter, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate are expected to decline further, which will continue to boost the valuation of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut and possible suspension of balance - sheet reduction are likely to be further strengthened due to increased economic downward pressure in the US and the expected increase in the number of Fed officials favorable to Trump. [51] - The US economy may face greater downward pressure in the fourth quarter and 2026, as evidenced by the cooling of the employment market and the negative impact of trade tariffs on the economy. The Fed's independence is being challenged through institutional and personnel interventions, and there is also the issue of fiscal coercion. [53][63] - Since 2025, global gold investment demand has increased significantly, but there was a net outflow in May. The uncertainty brought about by Trump's policies has increased the demand for gold investment and allocation, but the "90 - day suspension period" of the "reciprocal tariff" policy and the cooling of uncertainty have led to a partial withdrawal of investment demand. [73][75] 4. Central Bank Gold Purchases as a Support - Central bank gold purchases have shown a slowdown this year. From the perspective of the fourth quarter and 2026, central bank gold purchases will act as a support rather than the core driving force for price increases. Central banks are expected to continue to support the gold market, with a concave - shaped demand curve that is more sensitive to price declines. [81] - Long - term, the relationship between central bank gold purchases and gold prices is asymmetric. Central banks are more likely to increase purchases when prices fall, and the inhibitory effect on price increases is weaker than the boosting effect on price increases when prices fall. [82] - As of July, the Polish central bank was the largest gold purchaser in 2025, but its gold purchases slowed down in the second half of the year. Many central banks, including those of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, and Turkey, maintained a good demand for gold. [89] - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves and reduce their US dollar reserves in the next five years. In the next 12 months, 95% of central banks expect the global central bank's gold reserves to continue to increase. [90][91][98] 5. Precious Metals Market Outlook 5.1 Q4 2025 Outlook: Reaching New Highs and Maintaining Strength - In terms of influencing factors, the decline in the US dollar index and the US Treasury real interest rate has boosted the valuation of precious metals. The rise in the precious metals market in the first half of the year was mainly due to hedging demand and interest - rate cut expectations. Central bank gold purchases provided support, and market supply - demand imbalances in the first quarter also contributed to the rise. Gold entered a consolidation phase from late April to mid - August and broke through after late August. [119] - The demand for silver is weaker than that for gold. Industrial silver demand has stagnated, and the underdeveloped investment channels in the domestic market have limited investment demand. However, the deviation of the gold - to - silver ratio and the small market size of silver have created trading opportunities. [120] - The long - term upward cycle of gold is not over, and any price adjustment should be seen as a buying opportunity. In the fourth quarter, investment demand will shift, and the price of London gold is expected to reach the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce. [2][3][121]
南华期货2025年度焦煤焦炭四季度展望:远端预期改善,持货意愿增强
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 11:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q4, under the constraints of the "Anti-Involution" and "Overproduction Inspection" policies, the domestic mine operating rate faces a theoretical upper limit, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. As the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026, the long-term market expectation has significantly improved, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices ultimately depend on whether the supply-demand balance sheet of the downstream steel sector can achieve a "soft landing." The ideal scenario is for steel mills to proactively ease the steel inventory pressure through early maintenance and production cuts based on the anticipation of profit contraction, creating a favorable upward space for the industrial chain. Conversely, if the production adjustment of steel mills lags, the shrinking terminal demand will exacerbate the finished product inventory contradiction, triggering the negative feedback risk of the black industrial chain and restricting the rebound height of coal prices [1][54]. - The trading range of the coking coal main contract is (1100, 1300), and that of the coke main contract is (1550, 1800). Adopt a range-bound trading strategy for single-sided positions, and focus on the reverse spread between the January and May contracts of coking coal, with an recommended entry range of (-70, -60) [1][54]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first half of the year, due to factors such as the tariff war, the market had a generally pessimistic outlook on the far-month contracts. As a result, all links in the industrial chain continuously reduced speculative inventories, and the terminal replenishment willingness was low, leading to a deteriorating coking coal inventory structure. A large amount of inventory was积压 at the upstream mines, weakening their bargaining power and resulting in frequent price cuts for promotion. Although the supply-demand contradiction of coke itself was not prominent supported by high hot metal production, the coke price remained difficult to stabilize and showed overall weakness due to the collapse of cost support [2]. - Since June, the expected weak export did not occur. Instead, the year-on-year growth rate of steel exports remained high, and the inventory-to-sales ratio of the five major steel products continued to decline, indicating a healthy steel fundamentals. Meanwhile, the low domestic mine operation and insufficient imported arrivals led to a tightened coking coal supply. Domestically, affected by environmental protection restrictions and regional safety accidents, the operating rates of major coal-producing areas were generally lower than the seasonal average. In terms of imports, the shrinking import profit due to the continuous decline of domestic coal prices in the first half of the year suppressed the import enthusiasm, and the net import volume of coking coal decreased month by month. This structural gap laid the fundamental basis for the subsequent rebound of coking coal. From a valuation perspective, the basis of the coking coal main contract fluctuated between -150 and 150 yuan/ton in the past two years, and this value reached the upper limit at the end of May, indicating significant overselling in the futures market. Subsequently, coking coal started a valuation repair rebound. As the basis turned negative, the cash-and-carry funds entered the market, driving the long-dormant speculative demand to recover and promoting downstream coking enterprises to conduct concentrated replenishment, forming a spiral strengthening mechanism of "futures market rebound - stimulating downstream replenishment - mine de-stocking and price support" [6]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Coking Coal Supply: Domestic Coal is Constrained by Policies, and the Operating Rate has a Theoretical Upper Limit - Since July, the national level has elevated the political significance of "anti-involution" in the coal industry to curb disorderly competition and stabilize coal prices. Shanxi Province, as the core production area of coking coal in China, accounts for nearly half of the output and is mainly composed of large state-owned mines, playing a strong exemplary and binding role in policy implementation. Shanxi proposed a production strategy of "increasing output to offset price decline" multiple times in the first half of the year, and there were also overproduction phenomena in some other provinces. From January to June, the output of above-scale industrial raw coal was 2.40 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and the cumulative output was the highest in the same period of the past five years, overusing the production quota for the second half of the year to some extent. To achieve the policy goals of controlling production and stabilizing prices for the whole year, it is expected that major production areas (especially Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi) will face strong overproduction inspection pressure before the end of the year, and the mine operating rate has a theoretical upper limit, which is expected to provide phased support for coking coal prices [11]. - The recently issued "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Iron and Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)" by five departments clearly states that it is necessary to "stabilize the supply of raw fuels, increase the supply and price stability of raw fuels such as iron ore and coking coal, support the normal production of compliant mining enterprises, and avoid 'one-size-fits-all' industry rectification measures." This statement sends a clear policy signal that while ensuring safety production and compliant operation, more attention will be paid to the stability and continuity of the supply side to prevent sharp price fluctuations of raw materials caused by excessive supply tightening. Based on this orientation, the possibility of coking coal prices skyrocketing as in 2021 is relatively low. The current policy environment emphasizes "supply stability and price control" and "precise regulation," which is fundamentally different from the background of strong supply constraints and concentrated demand release in 2021. In addition, the strong overseas demand in 2021 provided additional support for prices, while although exports still show resilience this year, there is limited room for further growth on the basis of last year's high base, making it difficult to reproduce the combined effect of domestic and foreign demand [14]. 3.2 Coking Coal Imports: Pay Attention to the Impact of Imported Coal on the Balance Sheet - Currently, China's dependence on imported coking coal is approaching 20%, and the influence of imported coal on the domestic supply structure is continuously increasing. Since July, the price of Mongolian coal has rebounded by more than 300 yuan/ton from the low level, and the import profit has been rapidly repaired, significantly boosting the customs clearance enthusiasm of major ports such as Ganqimaodu. In terms of seaborne coal, as the domestic coking coal price rebounded, the import window was reopened. Recently, the coal shipments of major global coal-exporting countries have significantly increased, and it is expected that the arrivals of seaborne coking coal will remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. Against the background of the constraints on domestic coal mine operation by factors such as overproduction inspection, safety supervision, and environmental protection, the effective supplement of imported coal helps to relieve the supply pressure. On the other hand, the increasing import dependence also brings hidden concerns about the stability of coking coal supply. If domestic production continues to be restricted and there are disturbances in port transportation, policies, or geopolitics for imported coal (especially Mongolian coal with an increasing proportion), the coking coal supply-demand balance may be broken, significantly impacting prices. Therefore, coking coal imports will be one of the key variables affecting the coking coal market balance in the second half of the year [16]. 3.3 Demand: Positive Outlook at the End of the Year, Pay Attention to the Start Time of Winter Storage - During the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as coal mine holidays and logistics disruptions, the coking coal supply is temporarily tightened, and downstream enterprises usually conduct raw material reserves in advance to ensure production continuity, which is the "winter storage" process. The scale of winter storage is not only restricted by the actual supply but also affected by the downstream's expectation of the market in the coming year. When the expectation is optimistic, the replenishment is active; when it is pessimistic, the reserve is cautious. Looking back at the recent years' patterns, downstream coking plants usually start winter storage about 70 days before the Spring Festival, and the start time is strongly correlated with the rebound of the futures market. In most years, the winter storage behavior starts about one week after the rebound of the main contract and lasts until one week before the Spring Festival (except in 2024, when the market was overly pessimistic about the future, and the futures market did not show a seasonal rebound). The Spring Festival in 2025 is relatively late. Based on the historical winter storage rhythm, it is expected that this round of winter storage will start in mid-to-late November. Considering that 2026 is the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the policy expectation is positive, the market sentiment is expected to improve compared with last year. Therefore, although it is the traditional off-season, it is expected that the coking coal price will have strong bottom support and certain rebound potential at the end of this year [28]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply-Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Analysis - When the demand shrinks and causes steel mills to suffer losses, the profit pressure will be transmitted upstream along the industrial chain, usually manifested as steel mills reducing the purchase price of coke, thereby squeezing the coking profit. This feature was显著 in January - February and August - September 2024. In the first half of 2025, benefiting from the continuous decline of coking coal prices, the profits of steel mills and coking plants were generally stable, and there was no large-scale loss, especially the profit performance of steel mills was good. However, since July, as the expectation of the "Anti-Involution" policy has increased, the coking coal price has rebounded strongly, and the downstream profits have begun to be damaged. Coking plants have been the first to fall into losses, and the steel mill profits have also shrunk. Currently, most coking coal mines have turned losses into profits, and most steel products except for rebar can still maintain a profit of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while coking plants have become the weakest link in the industrial chain, and some regions are approaching the break-even point or even suffering losses. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, if the coking coal price strengthens again due to supply contraction or the negative feedback of the black industrial chain occurs driven by weak demand, the downstream profits will be further pressured, ultimately leading to the reduction of blast furnace and coke oven production, which will in turn restrict the rebound space of coking coal prices [34]. 4.2 Supply-Demand Outlook - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of the "Anti-Involution" and "Overproduction Inspection" policies, the operating rate of domestic coking coal mines has a theoretical upper limit, and the monthly average output may be lower than the same period in previous years. Meanwhile, the import profit of coking coal has been significantly repaired compared with the first half of the year, promoting the increase of coking coal imports, and the import proportion is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. Overall, although the imports effectively supplement the domestic supply, the coking coal market is unlikely to experience obvious oversupply under the limited domestic output. In addition, as the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026, the positive policy expectation boosts the market sentiment, and the downstream winter storage enthusiasm has increased. It is expected that this year's winter storage scale will be better than the same period last year, providing certain support for the coal price at the end of the year [37]. - There is a strong positive correlation between the short-term supply of coke and the immediate coking profit. As the post-festival coking coal replenishment demand temporarily declines and a round of coke price increase is implemented, the coking profit is expected to be slightly repaired, driving the short-term coke output to remain stable. Due to the high cost of starting and stopping coke ovens, coking plants usually maintain continuous production during the Spring Festival, so there is no significant seasonal characteristic in coke supply. It is expected that the output at the end of the year will be flexibly adjusted according to the coking profit. From the perspective of the capacity structure, the coke industry has been in a long-term overcapacity situation, resulting in its weak bargaining power in the industrial chain. The price mainly follows the fluctuation of the cost-side coking coal, showing obvious cost-driven characteristics. Although the winter storage demand for coking coal in the fourth quarter will support the coke price to a certain extent, limited by the bargaining power, the strength and sustainability of the coke price rebound are expected to be less than those of coking coal. It is recommended that industrial customers pay attention to the selling hedging opportunities of the near-month main contracts to avoid the risk of adverse price fluctuations [39]. - Recently, the rebound of coal prices has caused the steel mill profits to decline from the high level, and some products such as rebar have suffered losses, indicating that the pressure of profit contraction is being transmitted. However, most steel mills can still maintain a profitable state and have not reached the critical point of the negative feedback of the black industrial chain. It is expected that the hot metal production will remain resilient in the short term. However, as the traditional off-season for the black industry in the fourth quarter, the weakening demand will impact the steel supply-demand balance sheet, and the current relatively high hot metal production of over 2.4 million tons per day is difficult to maintain for a long time. In addition, there is also the pressure to meet the annual crude steel production reduction target in the fourth quarter, which may prompt steel mills to adjust their production plans in advance, helping to ease the steel inventory pressure. However, once the production adjustment of steel mills lags or the actual implementation of the crude steel production reduction policy is less than expected, the steel inventory pressure may further increase. Compared with the first half of the year, the absolute value of steel mill profits has significantly decreased, and the sensitivity of steel mills to losses has increased. If the profits are squeezed again, it is easy to trigger a negative feedback decline in the black industrial chain [50].
南华期货2025年度有色金属锌四度展望:内外格局分化,破局契机将至
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 10:18
南华期货2025年度有色金属锌四度展望 ——内外格局分化,破局契机将至 傅小燕 (投资咨询证号:Z0002675) 林嘉玮(从业资格证号:F03145451) 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 观点概要 .. 观点:三季度锌外强内弱格局愈发明显。宏观上,初期反内卷等国内叙事对有色金属价格进行提振,国内经 济弱修复。而后美联储降息落地,后续降息预期加强,对金属板块形成上行驱动。 但伦锌沪锌两者走势大相径庭,基本面上的差距使得伦锌重心上移,而沪锌却被压制持续筑底。一方面受海 外冶炼厂减停产,而国内开工率受利润驱动维持强势影响,造成海外库存持续去化。另一方面,内外比价走 弱且仍有趋势化现象,国内出口窗口迟迟难以打开,造成我国精炼锌过剩难以消耗。 预测区间:后续沪锌仍处于空头逻辑,但下行幅度受伦锌支撑从而有限,预计走势属于偏弱震荡,预测四季 度运行区间在21580-22300元/吨。 策略:目前至10月底若海外库存尚未显性化且降息预期不改则内外正套逻辑不变。出口窗口打开或逼近则以 内外反套为主。同时区间内高抛低吸,以及逢高卖出套保或卖出虚值看涨期权。 风险提示:全球宏观环境,中美关税,供给端扰 ...
南华期货苹果四季度展望:优果率问题是否会引发价格的持续上涨?
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 09:01
2025年9月30日 2025年三季度苹果期货上涨,主要受低库存、早熟中熟果高开秤、苹果优果率低的问题引发的优果优价 逻辑推涨。 四季度,随着晚富士的下树,我们不经要问优果率问题是否会引发价格的持续上行呢?从历史经验看, 在年底前,这个逻辑可能会支持价格向上进一步挺进,根据采青富士的开秤价看,今年晚富士的开秤价不会 低,但是后期依旧可能存在高开低走的局面。不过对于AP2511和AP2512合约而言,交割逻辑将支撑价格保 持上涨格局,但是AP2601合约或许是价格的分水岭,前高后低的局面可能难以改变。 AP2601合约四季度价格波动区间预测:8300-9300,整体结构先涨后跌。 风险提示:交割环节依旧存在较大变数,前期价格上涨存在延长涨幅或提前结束的可能性。 第二章:行情回顾 南华期货苹果四季度展望 ——优果率问题是否会引发价格的持续上涨? 边舒扬(投资咨询证号:Z0012647 ) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章:观点概要 第三章:核心关注要点 2025年三季度苹果期货价格震荡上涨,季度涨幅接近14%,上涨超过1000点,核心因素在于对于今年苹 果优果率低将会导致可交割果少的担忧。 ...
多元金融板块9月30日跌0.95%,中粮资本领跌,主力资金净流出5.7亿元
Core Viewpoint - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 0.95% on September 30, with COFCO Capital leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.35% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The diversified financial sector's stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gainers including Ruida Futures (up 3.06%) and ST Rendong (up 2.89%), while several stocks like ST Xiongmao and ST Rendong faced declines [1][2] - The trading volume for Ruida Futures reached 77,600 lots, with a transaction value of approximately 166 million yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 570 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 464 million yuan [2] - The capital flow data indicates that stocks like Haide Co. and ST Xiongmao experienced significant net inflows from retail investors, despite overall negative trends in major and speculative funds [3]
南华金属日报:贵金属维持强势,但建议轻仓过节-20250930
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 08:39
南华金属日报:贵金属维持强势 但建议轻仓过节 夏莹莹(投资咨询证号:Z0016569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月30日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属板块继续强势上涨,黄金突破3800关口并刷新高,铂和银亦刷阶段新高,钯金接近7月前高附 近。近期贵金属上涨受到中长期ETF投资需求涌入,以及短期期货资金买入共振影响,背后原因可能来自美联 储独立性担忧、降息大周期、以及截止于10月1日的美国临时预算案(暂时替代更难的26财年预算案)难产 引发的政府临时关门风险提振。目前众议院于9月19日通过一项临时预算案,计划将政府资金维持至11月21 日;但参议院同日投票结果为44票赞成、48票反对,未达到60票通过门槛 。随着国内国庆假期临近,以及前 期贵金属涨幅较大,短期期货持仓增仓明显预示短期多头获利回吐下的回调风险亦增加,建议前多减仓过 节,节中将公布重磅美非农与ISM PMI数据。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3862.9美元/盎司,+1.42%; 美白银2512合约收报于47.11美元/盎司,+0.97%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约 收866.52元/克,+1.35%; SH ...
南华期货2025年度烧碱四季度展望:把握阶段性供需错配机会
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 00:47
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and prices may be more affected by phased restocking demand. High开工 and high production are expected to continue, and long - term supply faces pressure. New alumina projects support demand, but alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices cap the upside of caustic soda prices. Export expectations are cautiously optimistic, and costs are supported. Attention should be paid to phased supply - demand mismatches [1]. - The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Third - Quarter Market Review of Caustic Soda - In the third quarter, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with prices mainly in the range of 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton, affected by policy expectations and fundamental changes [1]. - From late June to early July, the market rose strongly, supported by stable spot prices and then driven by policy expectations. From late July to early August, the market corrected due to eased policy statements, cooled market sentiment, and weakened spot supply - demand. In mid - August, the market rebounded due to marginal improvement in fundamentals. From late August to mid - September, the market declined again after the end of phased restocking [2]. Chapter 3: Core Concerns of Caustic Soda - Caustic soda exports: As of now, exports this year are 860,000 tons more than the same period last year. Annual exports are expected to reach about 4.1 million tons, accounting for 10% - 11% of apparent demand. However, August export data was below expectations, and there are rumors of new energy process adjustments affecting demand [16]. - Alumina production and alkali - stocking rhythm: Many alumina capacities are to be put into production from the end of 2025 to early 2026, supporting caustic soda demand. But alumina's surplus fundamentals and low prices may limit caustic soda's upside and affect alumina's production progress [17]. - Supply policies and costs: Chlor - alkali comprehensive profits are high, so the possibility of active supply - side production cuts is small. However, policy expectations may have an unexpected impact on supply and cost - side raw material pricing [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook of Caustic Soda 4.1 High Profits, Continued Supply Pressure of Caustic Soda - From January to September, caustic soda production totaled 31.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. This year's new caustic soda capacity is estimated to be around 2.4 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 4.8% - 4.9%. By the end of the year, the capacity base may rise to 51 - 52 million tons. But actual implementation is less optimistic, with few certain new capacities in the fourth quarter [19]. - High profits limit caustic soda price increases, but there have been periods of high profits in history due to short - term supply - demand mismatches [22]. 4.2 Waiting for Alumina Production to Materialize - From the end of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, there are still many alumina capacities to be put into production, creating caustic soda stocking demand in the fourth quarter. However, alumina's surplus situation and low prices limit caustic soda's upside. Non - aluminum demand is fragmented, and short - term restocking at low prices has some price support but does not change the supply - demand balance [25]. 4.3 Exports are Key - From January to August 2025, caustic soda exports were 2.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.16%, due to increased Southeast Asian demand and domestic price advantages. In the short - to - medium term, export expectations remain high, but there are rumors of overseas process adjustments affecting demand. In October, export orders improved, supporting demand [39][40].