南华期货苹果产业周报 ——01面临交割上涨行情 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、01合约最终会以什么价格结束？目前的基本面比较明朗，就是今年苹果整体有所减产，质量明显下降，库 存果中也有大量次果、果脯果汁果等。对标盘面的可交割果少是支撑盘面持续上涨的主要原因。从目前的趋 势看，供给的缩量给于的盘面价格只可能越来越高，因此01合约的价格最终还是将要不断创新高，也是有可 能达到12合约的水准，甚至超过。因此01合约会继续走交割逻辑，而不是当下淡季消费逻辑。 2、春节旺季消费好还是差？后续决定苹果价格因素将从供给转为消费。由于近几年都出现过远期合约坍塌的 情况，主要还是因为消费不及预期导致，由于水果类型越来越多，且消费者偏好出现改变，苹果的消费结构 出现较大变化，因此传统的消费旺季有时候也可能会出现旺季不旺的局面。由于大部分的苹果质量下降，市 场还是存在担心劣币驱逐良币的情况在未来会发生。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 当前处于晚富士苹果消费淡季，产 ...

南华期货工业硅产业周报 ——基本面双弱，下方空间有限 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周工业硅市场呈现震荡走弱格局。展望未来，工业硅期货价格走势的核心驱动逻辑将集中于以下因素：产 业"反内卷"背景下落后产能淘汰进度、供给端受环保约束或成本抬升引发的减产情况、需求端因终端出货 疲软导致的减产预期。 产业维度来看，尽管行业对落后产能淘汰存在预期，但工业硅行业以民营企业为主要生产主体，呈现企业数 量多、布局分散的格局，这使得市场对通过行业自律实现有效产能出清的信心相对不足。整体而言，产能优 化进程仍面临现实阻力，后续需持续跟踪相关进展。 基本面，电力成本占工业硅生产成本的30%，而煤价波动直接影响电力成本，进而对工业硅价格形成传导作 用。供给端，12月份工业硅生产企业开工率存在下降预期；需求端，多晶硅行业12月大概率出现减产，下游 有机硅单体厂有检修计划安排，仅铝合金行业开工维持稳定态势。技术面来看， ...

南华期货光伏产业周报 ——交割品牌增加，下行风险增大 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月07日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周多晶硅期货价格整体呈震荡偏弱态势。当前主导多晶硅期货价格走势的核心逻辑，聚焦于以下因素：供 给端检修停产情况、下游需求端排产情况、光伏反内卷政策、新注册交割品牌的仓单注册情况。 从基本面角度看，行业基本面当前呈现"供需双弱"的特征：供给端，多晶硅环节产量已出现下滑趋势，行 业供给扩张节奏显著放缓；需求端，下游硅片、电池片及组件环节产量同步承压，产业链整体呈现收缩态 势。库存端，多晶硅库存仍处于近期高位，未见明显拐点。从终端需求来看，组件招标市场表现持续疲软， 招标数量与成交均价均处于历史相对低位，预计后续基本面弱平衡状态仍在延续。 从时间维度来看，当前光伏收储平台落地进程未出现实质性进展。同时，由于近两周市场炒作可交割品不足 的问题，广期所已于周五新增两个厂家的交割品，预计后续将对多晶硅期货产生较大影响。 从 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing mixed performance, with lithium carbonate futures slightly declining by 1.24% to 92,160.0 CNY/ton [1] - Supply side analysis shows a weekly production increase of 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 120 tons to 13,484 tons, while lithium salt lake production decreased by 145 tons to 3,090 tons [1] - Demand side insights reveal a divergence in expectations for December, with a slight reduction in production for lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries, indicating a need to monitor weekly inventory depletion for demand performance validation [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the lithium carbonate market suggests intensified supply-demand dynamics due to the resumption of production by Ningde, with expectations for increased price volatility [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the current price is facing short-term pressure around the 100,000 CNY/ton mark, with strong profit-taking motivation from bulls, necessitating caution against high-risk chasing [2] - Overall, the market is advised to be cautious of potential short-term price corrections amid active trading and increased capital divergence [2]

保险股集体上涨，中国太保涨超6%。中国平安、中国人保均涨超4%。 12月5日，大金融股盘中拉升，多元金融、保险、证券板块集体走高。 多元金融板块方面，瑞达期货直线拉升封板，南华期货、永安期货、拉卡拉纷纷走高。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅％v | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002961 | 瑞达期货 | +10.01% | 26.71 | | 000935 | 四川双马 | +5.84% | 23.75 | | 603093 | 南华期货 | +4.09% | 19.85 | | 600927 | 永安期货 | +3.82% | 14.94 | | 300773 | 拉卡拉 | +3.67% | 21.77 | | 600318 | 新力金融 | +3.01% | 9.23 | | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅％v | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601601 中国太保 | | +6.16% | 37.37 | | 601318 中国平安 | | +4.94% | 61.44 | | 601319 中国人保 | | +4.20% | 8 ...

格隆汇12月5日｜瑞达期货涨停，弘业期货、南华期货、永安期货、越秀资本、新力金融等纷纷走高。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国 PCE 通胀数据 【市场资讯】1）中国国家主席和国务院总理分别会见来华进行国事访问的法国总统马克龙。 2）私人数据商称美国 11 月非农就业岗位减少 9000，10 月下修至减 1.55 万；美挑战者报 告：企业 11 月裁员 7.1 万人，同比增速放缓至 24%，但仍为 2022 年以来同期最高水平； 美国就业进入"不裁不招"模式：上周首次申请失业救济人数不增反降创逾三年新低，招聘 计划大幅下降。3）报道：日本央行或于 12 月加息，政府或将容忍此举，日元盘中创逾两 周新高；日债风暴升级，长债收益率集体飙升至数十年新高。4）瞄准 33 万亿欧元居民储 蓄，欧盟拟打破金融服务国家壁垒，推动打造真正的统一资本市场。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，10 月份受上年同期基数抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规 模以上工业企业利润同比下降 5.5%。当前工业企业利润增速受"量价双弱"格局拖累，边际 回落特征显著，营收利润率偏弱的态势未得到明显改善。展望短期，预计年内规模以上工 业企业利润增速将持续面临较大压力，大概率维持弱势震荡格局。中长期来看，随着宏观 托底政策逐步落地见效，叠加"反内卷"相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for the high-quality development of China's futures market, which has achieved significant progress in price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation, contributing positively to rural revitalization, industrial upgrading, and green development [1][2]. Regulatory Framework - The legal and regulatory foundation is essential for the healthy development of the futures market, with the Futures and Derivatives Law implemented on August 1, 2022, enhancing the top-level design of the market's basic systems [2]. - The continuous improvement of the regulatory framework supports the stable and innovative development of the futures market, ensuring its core function of serving the real economy [2]. Market Performance - The futures market has shown steady progress over the past five years, maintaining a stable development trend despite various risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff increases [3]. - As of August 2025, the average daily trading volume, open interest, and total funds in the futures market increased by 46.54%, 97.88%, and 131.69% respectively compared to 2020 [3]. Investor Structure - The investor structure has significantly improved, with institutional clients' holdings increasing, indicating a trend towards institutionalization and professionalism in the market [4][5]. - By mid-2025, the number of institutional clients in the futures market grew by approximately 90% compared to 2020, with the proportion of corporate clients' holdings reaching 65.34%, up by 7.94 percentage points [4]. Product Development - The number of futures and options products has surpassed 160, enhancing the market's ability to discover prices and manage risks, benefiting numerous enterprises and households [6]. - The introduction of new products and tools has provided more refined risk management options for enterprises, contributing to the stability of China's industrial and supply chains [7]. Future Outlook - The futures market is expected to focus on continuous innovation of new products and tools, particularly in alignment with national strategies such as the "dual carbon" goals [8]. - Future developments will also emphasize upgrading business models of futures companies, leveraging financial technology to enhance service efficiency and risk management capabilities [8].

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 从细项得分来看，南华期货E项得分61.0，评级为CC，行业内排名21/22（E项目评分维度包括气候变 化）；S项得分75.11，评级为BB，行业内排名14/22（S项目评分维度包括人力资本、产品责任、供应 商、社会贡献、数据安全与隐私）；G项得分82.93，评级为BBB，行业内排名8/22（G项目评分维度包 括股东权益、治理结构、信披质量、治理风险、外部处分、商业道德）。 上海华证指数信息服务有限公司（简称"华证指数"），是一家专业从事指数与指数化投资综合服务的公 司，拥有上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所和香港交易所的指数编制行情授权。证券之星成立ESG生态 联盟，旨在为上市公司和投资机构、ESG研究与评级机构等搭建沟通与交流平台，推动形成具有中国特 色、国际认同的ESG管理体系。 【ESG小知识】什么是ESG？ESG是Environmental, Social and Governance的缩写，即环境、社会和治 理。ESG 指标分别从环境、社会以及公司治理角度，来衡量企业发展的可持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures has successfully passed the IPO hearing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating that its H-share issuance is entering a substantive advancement phase [2][8]. Company Progress - Nanhua Futures announced its intention to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2023 to enhance its global strategic layout [5]. - The company submitted its application and related materials to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 17, 2023, and received confirmation from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 19, 2023 [6]. - On October 31, 2023, Nanhua Futures updated and resubmitted its application materials, completing an important step in the listing process [6]. - The listing hearing was held by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Committee on November 20, 2023 [7]. Financial Performance - Nanhua Futures reported operating revenues of 954 million yuan, 1.293 billion yuan, and 1.355 billion yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with corresponding profits of 246 million yuan, 403 million yuan, and 458 million yuan [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 593 million yuan and profit of 231 million yuan [8]. Opportunities and Challenges - The move to list in Hong Kong presents opportunities for Nanhua Futures to expand international financing channels and enhance its brand influence [10]. - Listing in Hong Kong could provide a broader financing platform and international perspective, allowing for more collaboration with international peers [11]. - Challenges include high listing costs, potential dilution of shares, stricter regulatory requirements, and the need for effective cross-border business integration [11]. - The differences in market rules and regulatory standards between Hong Kong and mainland China may require significant preparation from the company [11]. Industry Outlook - There is an expectation that more quality futures companies, especially leading firms, will follow the "A+H" model in the future [12]. - The futures industry is entering a new phase of capital dividends and international competition, with the "A+H" model helping companies meet capital needs and enhance global layouts [12]. - Leading firms are likely to consolidate their advantages, while smaller companies may focus on niche markets for differentiated development [12].