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据港交所文件:南华期货股份有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-02 10:45
据港交所文件:南华期货股份有限公司通过港交所上市聆讯。 本文源自:金融界AI电报 ...
金融期货早评-20251202
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 02:59
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Macro - In the short - term, the profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises will face great pressure and likely maintain a weak and volatile pattern. In the long - term, the profit of industrial enterprises is expected to enter a recovery channel in 2025. The RMB is likely to continue a stable and relatively strong trend in the short - term, with a slower appreciation speed and more obvious two - way fluctuations. In the long - term, it is expected to start a gentle appreciation channel [1][3][4] Stock Index - Overseas market fluctuations may disturb the A - share market, but the impact is limited. In the short - term, it is expected to be mainly volatile [4][5] Treasury Bonds - The central bank's bond - buying scale should be focused on. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be gradually closed for profit [6] Container Shipping to Europe - The supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the short - term price fluctuation is intensified [6][8] Commodities Precious Metals - In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will boost the price of precious metals. In the short - term, silver has set a new high, and platinum and palladium mainly follow the trend of gold and silver [10][14] Copper - If there is no new contradiction in the short - term, the futures price will maintain a high - level shock after the breakthrough [17] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum shows a strong and volatile trend, alumina is in a weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy is strong and volatile [18][19] Zinc - It shows a strong and volatile trend [19] Nickel and Stainless Steel - They are strong in the short - term, but the upward momentum of stainless steel is limited [20][21] Tin - It is not recommended to short in the short - term, and the strategy of entering the market on dips is maintained [22] Lithium Carbonate - There may be a short - term correction, but there are opportunities to go long on dips in the medium - to - long - term [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a volatile state, and polysilicon is expected to have an enlarged fluctuation range [26] Lead - There is support below, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16900 - 17300 [27] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The profit is improving, and they are in a strong and volatile trend [29][30] Iron Ore - The price will maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [33][34] Coking Coal and Coke - The macro - sentiment is improving. Coking coal prices are under short - term pressure, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [35][36] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - They are in a weak and volatile trend [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In the short - term, it is in a volatile pattern, and in the long - term, it is in a downward trend [40] LPG - It is in a volatile state [41][43] PTA - PX - The speculation on blending for oil has cooled down, and it is recommended to go long on dips [44][47] MEG - Bottle Chips - The downward driving force is weakening, and it is recommended to sell call options [49][50] PP - The cost support is strong, and the fundamental situation is expected to improve marginally [52][53] PE - The upward space is limited due to insufficient self - driving force [54][56] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [58] Fuel Oil - The cracking is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is still bearish in the short - term [59] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The cracking is weakening, and it may rebound after the Dar Blend discount stabilizes [60] Asphalt - The bottom space is limited, and the winter storage policy should be focused on [61][62] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The weather speculation sentiment has subsided, and it is recommended to wait and see [63] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: China's November Manufacturing PMI was 49.9, with the new export order growing at the fastest rate in 8 months. The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI shrank at the largest rate in four months. Japan's central bank governor hinted at a December interest - rate hike [1] - **Core Logic**: Domestically, the profit of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased year - on - year in October. In the short - term, the profit growth rate will face pressure, and in the long - term, it is expected to recover. Overseas, the US dollar index is expected to be volatile at a high level [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [2] - **Important Information**: The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI declined, and the Japanese central bank governor signaled a possible interest - rate hike [2] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index closed up, and the trading volume in the two markets increased. The futures index showed different volume changes [4] - **Important Information**: The US November ISM Manufacturing PMI shrank, and the Japanese central bank governor hinted at a December interest - rate hike [4][5] - **Core Logic**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the easing of geopolitical risks strengthen the support for the stock index. The hawkish remarks of the Japanese central bank may affect the A - share market [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The bond futures rebounded on Monday, and the funds were loose [5] - **Important Information**: The Japanese central bank governor said to evaluate the pros and cons of raising interest rates [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The signal of the Japanese central bank's interest - rate hike may affect the A - share market and increase the rebound power of the bond market. Attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying data [6] Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Review**: The futures market of container shipping to Europe strengthened, and the SCFIS declined after the market closed [7][8] - **Information Sorting**: Positive factors include the expectation of China - EU trade cooperation and the warming of the shipping sector. Negative factors include the loose supply - demand pattern, the expectation of Red Sea shipping resumption, and macro - risks [8] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Silver set a new high, and gold and platinum fluctuated after rising [10] - **Interest - Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings**: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is stable, and the holdings of some ETFs have changed [12] - **This Week's Focus**: Pay attention to the US data and the speeches of Fed officials [13] Copper - **Market Review**: The prices of copper futures in different markets showed different trends, and the basis and cross - border ratio changed [15] - **Industry Information**: The copper inventory decreased, and the CSPT planned to reduce the copper ore production capacity in 2026 [15][16][17] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends [17] - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is affected by macro - sentiment and copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of aluminum [18] Zinc - **Market Review**: The price of zinc futures was strong [19] - **Industry Performance**: A zinc - lead mine project in a certain country is expected to start production [19] - **Core Logic**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the smelting end has a willingness to reduce production due to raw material problems. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad [19][20] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The price of nickel futures rose, and that of stainless steel futures fell [20] - **Industry Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel in the spot market changed, and the inventory situation was reported [20] - **Market Analysis**: They are affected by copper, and the prices of nickel ore are stable. Nickel iron has a tendency to reduce production, and the upward momentum of stainless steel is limited [21] Tin - **Market Review**: The price of tin futures was blocked from rising [22] - **Core Logic**: The supply - side raw material problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is not recommended to short in the short - term [22] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the trading volume decreased while the open interest increased [22] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market sentiment of the lithium - battery industry chain was weak, and the prices of some products changed [23] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and there may be a short - term correction [24] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures changed, and the trading volume and open interest showed different trends [25] - **Industry Performance**: The spot market sentiment of the industrial silicon and photovoltaic industries was general, and the prices of some products changed [25][26] - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon will have greater fluctuations [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The price of lead futures fluctuated narrowly [27] - **Industry Performance**: A new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented in 2025 [27] - **Core Logic**: The raw material problem of primary lead has not been solved, and the production willingness of recycled lead has decreased. The import window is open, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16900 - 17300 [27] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Review**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were strong and volatile [29] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, the profit is improving, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing. The price is expected to be strong and volatile [30][31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, and the arrival volume in China changed [32][33] - **Core Logic**: The short - term fundamentals have improved, the demand is supported, the valuation is repaired, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33][34] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: They were in a strong and volatile trend [35] - **Information Sorting**: The purchase price of coke by some steel mills was lowered, and there were environmental protection problems in some regions [35] - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes and is in a slight surplus. The supply of coke is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of steel mills [36] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Review**: They rebounded slightly, driven by coking coal and finished products [37] - **Core Logic**: The demand is expected to decline, the inventory is high, the production profit is declining, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Dynamics**: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil rose. There were attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and Chevron signed an exploration agreement [39] - **Core Logic**: The supply concern has increased, and the price is in a volatile pattern. In the long - term, the supply surplus pressure remains, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ policies and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [40] LPG - **Market Dynamics**: The prices of LPG futures and related benchmarks changed [42] - **Spot Feedback**: The average prices in different regions changed [42] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, the demand changed little, and the inventory decreased [42][43] PTA - PX - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX decreased, and the supply of PTA had some changes. The demand of polyester was expected to be high, and the processing fee of PTA was repaired [44][45][46] - **Core Logic**: The speculation on blending for oil has cooled down, and the PTA - PX supply - demand structure is relatively good. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual situation of blending for oil [46][47] MEG - Bottle Chips - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased [48] - **Device**: Some devices were restarted and some were shut down [48] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the profit of each route was repaired, and the inventory was expected to increase. The demand of polyester was expected to be high [48][49] - **Core Logic**: The downward driving force of ethylene glycol is weakening, and the inventory accumulation expectation in December is revised to a tight balance. In the long - term, the cost support will weaken, and the short - term strategy is to sell call options [49][50] PP - **Market Dynamics**: The price of PP futures decreased slightly [51] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices in different regions were reported [51] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory decreased [52] - **Core Logic**: The cost support is strong, the fundamental situation is expected to improve marginally, and attention should be paid to the PDH device status and the basis change [53] PE - **Market Dynamics**: The price of PE futures increased slightly [54] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices in different regions were reported [54] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory decreased [54][55][56] - **Core Logic**: The self - driving force is insufficient, the supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to continue to be volatile after the rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot and the basis [56] Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Market Review**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased [57] - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene changed [57] - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory of pure benzene increased, and that of styrene in some places decreased and in some places increased [57] - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [58] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The price of fuel oil futures was reported [59] - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of fuel oil in different regions changed in November, and the inventory situation was reported [59] - **Core Logic**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil increased in November, the demand for power generation was weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is still bearish in the short - term [59] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures was reported [60] - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed in November, and the inventory situation was reported [60] - **Core Logic**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by some factors in November, the cracking was compressed, and it may rebound after the Dar Blend discount stabilizes [60] Asphalt - **Market Review**: The price of asphalt futures was reported [61] - **Spot Performance**: The average price of asphalt in the domestic market decreased, and the prices in different regions changed [61] - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [61] - **Core Logic**: The spot and futures prices were stable near the integer mark, and the winter storage may face the problem of insufficient volume. After the winter storage policy is introduced, it may be the valuation anchor for BU01. In the short - term, it is expected to be weakly volatile [62] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Related Information**: China's November PMI data, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the rubber inventory situation were reported [64]
矿端持稳预期下 沪镍盘面暂稳余117000附近
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-01 08:09
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in nickel futures, which have shown a slight increase amid macroeconomic factors and demand challenges [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. government has resumed operations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in December - High-level communications between China and the U.S. have raised market hopes for new domestic stimulus policies to support the economy [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the Philippines is shipping nickel ore according to orders without significant fluctuations - There are indications that Indonesia may reduce its quota for the upcoming year, but no concrete figures have been reported yet, suggesting limited immediate impact [1] - Southwest Futures notes that downstream nickel-iron plants are facing increased losses, leading to some high-cost nickel-iron plants in Indonesia halting production for maintenance - The stainless steel sector is entering a traditional off-peak consumption season, compounded by weak demand in the real estate sector, resulting in a bearish sentiment among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Jinrui Futures anticipates that nickel ore prices in Indonesia are likely to remain stable in December - There are signs of price stabilization for nickel-iron and stainless steel in the short term, with a potential confirmation of a bottom in the off-peak season - Expectations of stability in the mining sector may alleviate short-term pressure on primary nickel prices, with the price center expected to stabilize around 117,000 yuan per ton - Short-term focus will be on the resumption of Indonesian projects, with the core trading range for nickel futures set between 115,000 and 120,000 yuan per ton [1]
化肥股表现亮眼 中国心连心化肥、中海石油化学均涨超4%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 07:28
Core Viewpoint - Fertilizer stocks showed strong performance today, with notable increases in share prices for several companies following the agreement on potash import prices for 2026, which supports domestic supply and price stability [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) rose by 4.55%, reaching HKD 8.74 [1] - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) increased by 4.58%, reaching HKD 1.6 [1] - CNOOC Chemical (03983) gained 4.53%, reaching HKD 2.54 [1] Group 2: Market Developments - On November 23, the Chinese potash import negotiation team reached an agreement with major international potash suppliers, setting the 2026 contract price at USD 348 per ton (CFR), a USD 2 increase from 2025 [1] - This price adjustment continues to maintain a "price lowland" for global potash, ensuring domestic supply and price stability [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Nanhua Futures (603093) indicated that in November, supported by policies for supply assurance and profit recovery, daily urea production is expected to remain high, exerting significant pressure on prices [1] - However, timely and continuous adjustments to export policies have alleviated downward pressure on prices, leading to a more stable short-term domestic urea market [1] - Rising coal prices are also contributing to support for urea prices, as the cash flow cost line for coal-based production increases [1]
南华期货尿素产业周报-20251201
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 03:52
南华期货尿素产业周报 在政策保供与生产利润修复的支撑下,尿素日产预计将维持高位,高供应对价格构成显著压力。然而出口 政策的适时、连续调节,持续为基本面泄压,从而削弱了价格的下行驱动强度。在出口政策调控背景下,短 期现货价格受到明显支撑,业内情绪有提升,短线国内尿素行情稳中偏强。由于目前东北地区已经连续补库 两周,复合肥工厂及贸易商追高意愿逐步减弱,但尿素显性库存连续去库,基本面对价格形成支撑。总体而 言,尿素市场处于基本面与政策的区间内。短期其下行空间受到有力支撑,但上方同样承压,预计将延续震 荡走势。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 2 4 6 | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 23/12 | 24/04 | 24/08 | 24/12 ...
期货策略周报:底部漫长反复-20251201
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 01:16
期货策略周报 I 2025 年 12 月 01 日 底部漫长反复 本周主要观点: 前一段时间的商品共振下跌,但是化工和黑色等品种的估值 偏低,并不认为它们仍然有较大的下跌空间,追空的价值不大。 尽管焦煤持续下跌,但是,大的框架仍然服从于反内卷,不宜过 度看空。农产品仍然维持震荡的判断,目前不具备持续上涨的基 本面预期。棕榈油阶段性的供应增加,并不能改变油脂板块整体 的供需逻辑,未来仍然是逢低做多的思路去对待油脂板块。在本 轮调整结束后,可以考虑一些基本面尚可的品种博反弹,比如油 脂和聚酯板块。 风险点:宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、移仓换月变化; 重要声明:本报告内容及观点仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议 顾双飞 投资咨询证号:Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号:Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号:Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号:Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1290 号 底部漫长反复 期货策略周报 I 2025 年 12 月 01 日 资料来源:WIND 南华研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 周行情观点综述 ...
南华期货钢材产业周报:利润改善,交易宏观预期,震荡偏强-20251130
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 13:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall steel products are supported by raw material costs, with profits gradually improving. The market may pre - trade policy expectations, and steel prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coils may be between 3200 - 3500 [2][9]. - The supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, but the risk of negative feedback is increasing as the profitability rate of steel enterprises has fallen to 35.06% [2]. - The port inventory of iron ore has resumed its accumulation trend, and its high valuation limits the upside space [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market sentiment**: Overseas macro - sentiment has warmed up, and the probability of interest rate cuts has increased. Domestically, the market anticipates targeted policies in stabilizing the real estate and fiscal areas in December, boosting the bullish sentiment in the steel market [1]. - **Supply - demand situation**: The production of the five major steel products increased slightly week - on - week, while consumption decreased slightly. The inventory is slowly being depleted, and the supply - demand balance is marginally improving. However, hot - rolled coils are in a situation of high inventory and high production, and destocking may rely on production cuts. Plate exports remain high, but domestic demand is weakening [2]. - **Profitability and cost**: The profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, but the profitability rate of steel enterprises has continued to decline. The price of iron ore has been strong recently, but with the increase in arrivals, the port inventory has resumed its accumulation trend, and its valuation is relatively high [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Oscillating and strengthening. - **Range reference**: The operating range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coils is between 3200 - 3500. - **Spread strategies**: The long - spread strategy for steel products has a high profit - loss ratio, and the strategy of narrowing the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is recommended [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The 01 - contract monthly price range for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.95% and a volatility percentile of 9.1%. For hot - rolled coils, the range is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 7.90% and a volatility percentile of 0.70% [12]. - **Risk management strategies**: Enterprises with high finished - product inventories can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits. Those with low procurement inventories can buy futures to lock in procurement costs. Additionally, selling call options or put options can be used to reduce costs [12]. 3.2 Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - **Positive factors**: The price of iron ore is relatively strong, the supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, the price of coking coal has declined, and the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are gradually improving [19]. - **Negative factors**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is gradually weakening, the steel market is under - performing during the peak season, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has declined significantly, the port inventory of iron ore may resume its accumulation trend, and the hot - rolled coil segment is in a situation of high inventory and high production [20]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Important Events to Monitor - Next Monday: Release of the final November ISM manufacturing PMI and November S&P Global manufacturing PMI in the United States. - Next Wednesday: Release of the November ADP employment figures in the United States [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Basis**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows certain seasonal characteristics. - **Coil - rebar spread**: The spot coil - rebar spread continues to narrow, and the driving force for the futures coil - rebar spread to widen is weakening, with a possible narrowing trend [27]. - **Term structure**: The term structure of rebar remains in a deep Contango (C) structure, while the near - end term structure of hot - rolled coils may revert from the C structure to the previous B structure [33]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, and the long - spread strategy has a high profit - loss ratio [11]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, which may weaken the motivation for the five major steel products to cut production [46]. - The profit ratios of different steel products, such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore and the ratio of rebar to coke, show certain seasonal characteristics [54]. 3.4.2 Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of hot - rolled coils shows seasonal fluctuations and is related to export volume. The difference between overseas and Chinese hot - rolled coil prices also affects export orders [64]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The production and consumption of the five major steel products have changed week - on - week. Rebar production decreased by 1.88, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3, and the inventory of various steel products has also changed accordingly [90]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The estimated amount of molten iron and scrap steel shows seasonal characteristics, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises is related to the daily output of molten iron [98]. - The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils is affected by factors such as maintenance and profit, and the planned production of rebar and hot - rolled coils also shows certain trends [101]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The consumption of different steel products, such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and cold - rolled coils, shows seasonal characteristics, and the inventory - to - sales ratios of various steel products also vary [113].
南华期货锌产业周报:宏观暖风频吹,矿端紧缺兑现-20251130
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 13:18
南华期货锌产业周报 ——宏观暖风频吹,矿端紧缺兑现 傅小燕 (投资咨询证号:Z0002675) 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌价处于筑底阶段,当前锌市正处于"宏观预期托底,产业供需错配"的关键窗口期。宏观层面, 美联储12月降息预期显著升温,美元指数回落,市场风险偏好提升(Risk-on),为有色板块提供了较强的金 融属性支撑。供给端矛盾已激化至临界点:加工费(TC)的持续崩塌是当前最核心的驱动力,SMM国产TC 已跌至2050元/金属吨的极低水平,冶炼厂陷入深度亏损(约-2000元/吨),导致检修减产规模扩大,12月 产量预期下滑,供应收缩逻辑正在从"预期"走向"现实"。需求端则呈现明显的季节性回落特征,镀锌开 工率下滑至56.54%,北方进入淡季,终端除了出口数据尚可外,地产与基建表现平淡,对锌价上方空间形成 压制。库存端出现典型的"内去外累"分化,LME库存虽增至5万吨以上,但国内社库受供给减量影响持续去 化,七地库存降至14.81万吨。综上所述,尽管消费端缺乏亮点,但矿端紧缺引发的供应缩量已成为主导逻 辑, ...
南华期货股份有限公司第五届董事会第四次会议决议公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-28 20:06
证券代码:603093 证券简称:南华期货 公告编号:2025-068 南华期货股份有限公司 第五届董事会第四次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")第五届董事会第四次会议于2025年11月28日以现场和通讯相 结合的方式召开,本次会议的通知于2025年11月24日以电话、电子邮件等方式向全体董事发出,由董事 长罗旭峰先生主持。本次会议应出席董事9人,实际出席董事9人。公司董事会秘书出席本次会议。公司 高级管理人员列席会议。 本次会议的召集、召开及表决程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等法律、行政法规和部门规章以及 《公司章程》的规定,会议决议合法有效。 一、审议通过《关于确定H股全球发售(香港公开发售及国际发售)及在香港联合交易所有限公司上市 相关事宜之议案》 董事会同意公司H股全球发售及在香港联合交易所有限公司上市的相关安排,包括但不限于:(1)批 准公司H股全球发售的相关安排;(2)批准刊发、签署符合相关法律法规要求的招股说明书及其他全 ...
南华期货开展暖心行动 寒冬慰问彰显企业担当
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-11-28 14:48
Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures actively engages in social responsibility initiatives, particularly focusing on rural support and community welfare, demonstrating its commitment to societal well-being through various programs and projects [1][2] Group 1: Community Support Initiatives - Nanhua Futures organized a charity event in Yungangkou Village, delivering essential supplies such as rice and cooking oil to 193 elderly residents aged over 70, addressing immediate needs during a cold wave [1] - The company has integrated social responsibility into its corporate DNA, recognizing the high proportion of elderly individuals living alone in the village due to young laborers migrating for work [1] - The charity event not only provided material assistance but also offered emotional support to the elderly, showcasing the company's genuine care [1] Group 2: Long-term Commitment to Rural Development - Nanhua Futures has established the Hangzhou Ganlin Education Foundation to tackle the issue of inadequate educational resources in rural areas, supporting impoverished students and improving teaching facilities [2] - The company initiated the Financial Harbor Charity Fund to align with common prosperity goals, focusing on industrial assistance and improving livelihoods, thereby contributing to high-quality rural economic development [2] - Nanhua Futures has implemented the "Insurance + Futures" model to support agriculture, covering 552 projects across 27 provinces from 2016 to mid-2025, benefiting approximately 459,550 farming households [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The company plans to continue its focus on rural development through various forms of public welfare activities, adhering to the philosophy of "benevolent business practices" while enhancing its service to the real economy [2] - Nanhua Futures aims to foster a respectful and caring social atmosphere for the elderly, contributing further to community welfare initiatives [2]