Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant surge, with COMEX gold surpassing $4600 per ounce and Shanghai silver futures rising by 14%, driven by concerns over Federal Reserve independence, geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, and de-dollarization trends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 12, COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $4612 per ounce, while COMEX silver hit $84.69 per ounce, with a peak intraday increase of over 6% [2]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures peaked at 1031 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose by 14%, closing at 20945 yuan per kilogram, with all seven distant month contracts hitting the limit [2]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw all six base metal futures contracts close higher, with LME tin and copper rising approximately 5% and 2%, respectively [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including the investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is seen as a long-term threat to the Fed's independence, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions and central banks' continuous gold accumulation [2][6]. - The U.S. labor department reported a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls for December, which, combined with a declining unemployment rate and a weakening dollar, provided new support for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Risk Signals - High volatility risks are evident, with global futures exchanges frequently intervening and increasing trading margins for precious metals [3]. - The recent announcement from the Shanghai Gold Exchange highlighted significant price fluctuations and rising uncertainties, prompting a warning for members to monitor market changes closely [3]. Group 4: ETF Adjustments - To manage high inflows, gold ETFs have begun to limit subscriptions, with E Fund's gold ETF announcing a suspension of subscriptions starting January 16, aimed at protecting holder interests and ensuring stable fund operations [8]. - The adjustment in subscription terms includes raising the minimum subscription unit and streamlining the physical redemption contracts, which is expected to mitigate tracking errors due to premium discrepancies [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the ongoing central bank gold purchases, combined with the irreversible trend of global monetary expansion and de-dollarization, will continue to support the upward trajectory of precious metals [7]. - Bloomberg Commodity Index's adjustment of gold and silver weightings is expected to create selling pressure, particularly on silver, which may experience greater volatility due to its smaller market size [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Nanhua Futures indicates an expected surge in lithium battery exports before the end of April, maintaining a positive outlook on lithium carbonate demand [1] Industry Summary - The long-term growth logic for lithium carbonate demand in three key downstream application areas—energy storage, new energy passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles—remains fundamentally unchanged [1] - The industry fundamentals continue to support the long-term value of lithium carbonate [1] Price Dynamics - There is a need to be cautious about the rapid increase in lithium carbonate prices and related non-ferrous metal prices, as this may erode the economic viability in the energy storage and commercial vehicle sectors [1] - Such price increases could potentially suppress the elasticity of downstream demand in the short term [1]

Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 0.18% on January 8, with *ST Panda leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the diversified financial sector included: - Yalian Development (002316) with a closing price of 5.19, up 9.96% and a trading volume of 242,600 shares [1] - *ST Rendo (002647) closed at 8.38, up 5.01% with a trading volume of 175,300 shares [1] - Zhejiang Dongfang (600120) closed at 6.84, up 4.43% with a trading volume of 2,004,800 shares [1] - Other stocks with minor gains included Bohai Leasing (000415), Lakala (300773), and Haide Shares (000567) [1] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 175 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 256 million yuan [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Zhejiang Dongfang had a significant net inflow of 158 million yuan from institutional investors, while Yalian Development experienced a net outflow of 25.39 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The main contract for silicon iron futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 5686.00 yuan, with a current price of 688.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.84% [1] - Institutions have varying views on the future of silicon iron prices, with expectations of price fluctuations around cost valuation levels due to high overall costs and seasonal demand pressures [2] - The overall trend of silicon iron prices is heavily dependent on energy price changes, with current coal prices providing some support to costs [3] Group 2 - The production of silicon iron is currently low, and major steel mills are still showing a willingness to replenish stocks before the winter season [3] - Despite an increase in iron alloy production and inventory accumulation, the downside for iron alloys is limited due to cost support and recent positive trends in bulk commodities [3] - The market outlook suggests a cautious approach to bearish positions, considering the potential for cost support and disruptions in coal production [3]

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as outlined in the "Suggestions" from the 20th Central Committee, emphasizing the importance of modernizing the industrial system and strengthening the real economy [1][3] - The company, Nanhua Futures, is actively promoting the learning and implementation of the 20th Central Committee's spirit among its employees, focusing on serving the real economy and supporting initiatives like rural revitalization and the Belt and Road Initiative [2][3] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures has developed a "three-step" plan to ensure the effective dissemination of the 20th Central Committee's spirit, which includes organized learning sessions, sharing meetings, and online knowledge tests [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of a modern industrial system as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, focusing on enhancing the self-control level of the industrial chain and promoting high-quality development in key manufacturing sectors [3][4] Group 3 - Nanhua Futures has expanded its services from traditional brokerage to include over-the-counter derivatives, basis trading, and market-making, providing comprehensive risk management solutions for clients [4][5] - The company has launched various innovative risk management tools and services, such as the "Futures Stabilization Order" project and "Insurance + Futures" initiatives, to address the needs of the real economy [5][6] Group 4 - The company has established an international business network to support the "Belt and Road" initiative and the development of outward-oriented enterprises, focusing on risk management and value-added services [7][8] - Nanhua Futures has set up branches in key global financial markets, including the US, Singapore, and the UK, providing a range of financial services and facilitating foreign investment in China [8]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 南華期貨股份有限公司 FF301 FF301 呈交日期: 2026年1月7日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02691 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 107,659,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 107,659,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 107,659,000 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 107,659,000 | | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. (02691) saw its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a new high of HKD 11.6, with a trading volume of HKD 22.89 million [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nanhua Futures shares increased by 5.07%, trading at HKD 11.6 at the time of reporting [1] - The stock's performance marks a new high since its listing [1] Group 2: Inclusion in Stock Connect - According to Huatai Securities, Nanhua Futures will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on January 19, following the end of the price stabilization period [1] - The price stabilization period for Hong Kong IPOs typically lasts 30 days, starting from the day after the public offering application deadline [1] Group 3: Business Performance and Competitiveness - Huaxi Securities highlighted that Nanhua Futures' overseas business is a core competitive advantage, projecting a revenue of CNY 654 million from overseas financial operations in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3% [1] - This overseas revenue is expected to account for 48.3% of total revenue, significantly higher than peers [1] - The company, along with its subsidiaries, holds derivative trading and clearing licenses in major markets such as Hong Kong, the US, the UK, and Singapore, ensuring coverage of all major global futures trading hours [1] - The firm is anticipated to benefit from increased trading activity in dollar-denominated commodities amid heightened foreign exchange volatility [1]

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures (603093) shares rose over 5% to a new high of HKD 11.6, with a trading volume of HKD 22.89 million [1] - According to Huatai Securities, A+H listed stocks can be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect without waiting for regular adjustments after the price stabilization period, which lasts for 30 days [1] - Nanhua Futures will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on January 19 [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities highlighted that Nanhua Futures' overseas business is a core competitive advantage, projecting overseas financial business revenue to reach RMB 654 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, accounting for 48.3% of total revenue [1] - The company holds derivatives trading and clearing licenses in major markets such as Hong Kong, the US, the UK, and Singapore, achieving full coverage of major global futures trading hours [1] - The increase in foreign exchange volatility is expected to enhance trading activity in USD-denominated commodities [1]

1月7日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，沪镍期货主力合约开盘报143500.00元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪镍主力最高触及147720.00元，下方探低142020.00元，涨幅达6.89%附 近。 目前来看，沪镍行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪镍后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）分析称，印尼供给端政策预期扰动，印尼2026年镍矿生产配额削减约34%至2.5亿 吨，市场对供给收缩预期反应迅速，政策面利好支撑镍价上涨，宏观层面情绪回暖，短期偏强运行。 正信期货表示，短期来看，政策预期仍将主导市场情绪，镍价或维持偏强态势，但需警惕产业链需求跟 进不足及政策落地不及预期的回调风险。操作上建议谨慎追高，关注印尼政策执行情况效果及下游不锈 钢、新能源需求复苏情况，注意风险控制。 兴业期货指出，26年印尼削减镍矿供应暂难证伪，固态电池产业化新增利好提振需求预期，叠加宏观环 境向好、镍相较铜价的比值尚处于偏低位置，虽然镍基本面弱现实未改，但当前宜持有多头思路。 ...

【消息面汇总】 截至1月1日，华东港口甲醇库存为75.59万吨，12月25日为72.95万吨，环比增加2.64万吨。 上周内地甲醇市场整体窄幅松动。以内蒙古甲醇为例，截至12月31日，内蒙古甲醇均价1829.17元/吨，环比下降2.76%。 宁波富德装置预计检修至1月中旬，但山东联泓新建装置生产正常，预计烯烃总需求有一定支撑。 1月6日，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约2274.00元/吨，震荡上行2.25%。 机构观点 华闻期货：临近年末、局部环保监查等影响，部分传统下游需求进一步弱化，不利于原料库存消化，故初步预计本期内地企业库存或仍有增量表 现。外轮卸货量环比本周存减量预期，但随着前期港口货源倒流内地的合同执行完毕，预计本期进口表需存走弱可能。整体来看，预计本周港口 甲醇库存或窄幅波动，具体关注外轮卸货速度。内地甲醇市场较昨日略有走弱，企业竞拍成交顺畅。港口甲醇市场上午基差走强，商谈成交尚 可。伊朗甲醇装置集中限气检修，进口减少预期增强，支撑业者心态。海外地缘局势持续动荡，市场情绪随之回暖。叠加市场对未来供应收缩的 预期升温，甲醇有望迎来阶段修复性上涨行情。 南华期货（603093）：05合约再往 ...