Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. (02691) saw its stock price rise over 5%, reaching a new high of HKD 11.6, with a trading volume of HKD 22.89 million [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nanhua Futures shares increased by 5.07%, trading at HKD 11.6 at the time of reporting [1] - The stock's performance marks a new high since its listing [1] Group 2: Inclusion in Stock Connect - According to Huatai Securities, Nanhua Futures will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on January 19, following the end of the price stabilization period [1] - The price stabilization period for Hong Kong IPOs typically lasts 30 days, starting from the day after the public offering application deadline [1] Group 3: Business Performance and Competitiveness - Huaxi Securities highlighted that Nanhua Futures' overseas business is a core competitive advantage, projecting a revenue of CNY 654 million from overseas financial operations in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3% [1] - This overseas revenue is expected to account for 48.3% of total revenue, significantly higher than peers [1] - The company, along with its subsidiaries, holds derivative trading and clearing licenses in major markets such as Hong Kong, the US, the UK, and Singapore, ensuring coverage of all major global futures trading hours [1] - The firm is anticipated to benefit from increased trading activity in dollar-denominated commodities amid heightened foreign exchange volatility [1]

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures (603093) shares rose over 5% to a new high of HKD 11.6, with a trading volume of HKD 22.89 million [1] - According to Huatai Securities, A+H listed stocks can be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect without waiting for regular adjustments after the price stabilization period, which lasts for 30 days [1] - Nanhua Futures will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on January 19 [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities highlighted that Nanhua Futures' overseas business is a core competitive advantage, projecting overseas financial business revenue to reach RMB 654 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, accounting for 48.3% of total revenue [1] - The company holds derivatives trading and clearing licenses in major markets such as Hong Kong, the US, the UK, and Singapore, achieving full coverage of major global futures trading hours [1] - The increase in foreign exchange volatility is expected to enhance trading activity in USD-denominated commodities [1]

1月7日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，沪镍期货主力合约开盘报143500.00元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪镍主力最高触及147720.00元，下方探低142020.00元，涨幅达6.89%附 近。 目前来看，沪镍行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪镍后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）分析称，印尼供给端政策预期扰动，印尼2026年镍矿生产配额削减约34%至2.5亿 吨，市场对供给收缩预期反应迅速，政策面利好支撑镍价上涨，宏观层面情绪回暖，短期偏强运行。 正信期货表示，短期来看，政策预期仍将主导市场情绪，镍价或维持偏强态势，但需警惕产业链需求跟 进不足及政策落地不及预期的回调风险。操作上建议谨慎追高，关注印尼政策执行情况效果及下游不锈 钢、新能源需求复苏情况，注意风险控制。 兴业期货指出，26年印尼削减镍矿供应暂难证伪，固态电池产业化新增利好提振需求预期，叠加宏观环 境向好、镍相较铜价的比值尚处于偏低位置，虽然镍基本面弱现实未改，但当前宜持有多头思路。 ...

【消息面汇总】 截至1月1日，华东港口甲醇库存为75.59万吨，12月25日为72.95万吨，环比增加2.64万吨。 上周内地甲醇市场整体窄幅松动。以内蒙古甲醇为例，截至12月31日，内蒙古甲醇均价1829.17元/吨，环比下降2.76%。 宁波富德装置预计检修至1月中旬，但山东联泓新建装置生产正常，预计烯烃总需求有一定支撑。 1月6日，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约2274.00元/吨，震荡上行2.25%。 机构观点 华闻期货：临近年末、局部环保监查等影响，部分传统下游需求进一步弱化，不利于原料库存消化，故初步预计本期内地企业库存或仍有增量表 现。外轮卸货量环比本周存减量预期，但随着前期港口货源倒流内地的合同执行完毕，预计本期进口表需存走弱可能。整体来看，预计本周港口 甲醇库存或窄幅波动，具体关注外轮卸货速度。内地甲醇市场较昨日略有走弱，企业竞拍成交顺畅。港口甲醇市场上午基差走强，商谈成交尚 可。伊朗甲醇装置集中限气检修，进口减少预期增强，支撑业者心态。海外地缘局势持续动荡，市场情绪随之回暖。叠加市场对未来供应收缩的 预期升温，甲醇有望迎来阶段修复性上涨行情。 南华期货（603093）：05合约再往 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Nanhua Futures has shown a positive stock performance recently, with a 2.03% increase in stock price on January 6, reaching 20.07 yuan per share, and a total market value of 14.405 billion yuan [1] - As of January 6, Nanhua Futures has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 2.98%, a 5-day increase of 5.52%, a 20-day increase of 2.50%, and a 60-day decrease of 4.56% [1] - The company is primarily engaged in futures brokerage, wealth management, risk management, overseas financial services, and futures investment consulting, with risk management accounting for 50.19% of its main business revenue [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures belongs to the non-bank financial sector, specifically in the multi-financial and futures categories, and is associated with concepts such as futures, H-shares, mid-cap, and blockchain [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Nanhua Futures reported an operating income of 941 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78.92%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 351 million yuan, a decrease of 1.92% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 173 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 120 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the biggest contradiction in methanol lies in the improvement of the willingness to hold goods. Despite high port inventories, the negotiable inventory is limited. With the slow unloading speed, the methanol port has become a market of stock - based competition. The concentration of cargo rights has led to an increase in port basis, and the strong inland demand has continuously relieved the pressure on the port. In the medium - term, port contradictions will gradually ease. The slow arrival of goods will stretch the inventory accumulation slope, and the pressure of high supply at the port will gradually decrease. From the perspective of port inventories alone, the 05 contract is in a process of gradual inventory reduction. Inland, after the commissioning of Lianhong, traders' bullish sentiment was strong, especially with the maintenance of Jiutai, bringing a prosperous period. However, with Jiutai's resumption, there are signs of weakness. In the long - run, the inland supply - demand situation is still relatively healthy. As an intermediate product, methanol needs to consider the valuation of its upstream and downstream industries. From the perspective of coal and olefin downstream, the valuation is at a low level, and the upside potential of methanol is limited. In summary, under the expectation of inventory reduction, it is difficult for methanol to reach new lows, but its upward movement is restricted by upstream and downstream industries. Attention should be paid to the demand increment brought by the commissioning of new plants. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Methanol Market Review - **First Quarter**: The market was volatile. The article about the Iranian energy crisis in the New York Times triggered a sharp increase in domestic sentiment, with the futures price and port paper - based basis rising significantly. Then, the shutdown of Xingxing at the MTO end led to an expectation of olefin - end shutdown, causing the methanol price to rise first and then fall. After the Spring Festival, there was a large - scale seasonal inventory accumulation inland, and the market price decreased. After the price of inland methanol was oversold, the procurement by coastal olefin producers provided support. The Spring maintenance plans of major plants such as Xin'ao, Rongxin, Huayu, and Jiutai Dalu in March also contributed to the price rebound. The main contradiction was the recovery time of Iranian plants. With the gradual recovery of inland MTO external procurement and downstream operations, the bottom price of methanol was supported. By the end of the first quarter, Iranian plants returned, and the shipping volume recovered, ending the bullish story. - **Second Quarter**: Methanol prices were greatly affected by macro factors. The change in US tariff policy and the outbreak of the Iran - Israel conflict had an impact on the market. The US tariff increase and China's counter - measures led to a decline in methanol valuation. Later, the smooth progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks and a larger - than - expected tariff reduction improved market sentiment, and methanol prices rose. The Iran - Israel conflict increased geopolitical risks. As China is the world's largest methanol consumer and imports a large amount of methanol from Iran, the conflict led to concerns about supply and an increase in downstream costs, pushing up the methanol valuation. After the conflict, the rapid decline in methanol prices was mainly due to the disappearance of "geopolitical premium" rather than a weakening of fundamentals. - **Third Quarter**: The Iran - Israel conflict cooled down, but the shadow of war remained. Iran adopted low - inventory shipping, accelerating the loading of ships. The domestic anti - involution sentiment cooled down, and the cost - end price decreased. The methanol price fluctuated downward with intermittent rebounds. The high - level of overseas imports led to a historical high in port inventories, while the inland market was strong due to continuous external procurement by MTO plants. The theoretical reverse - flow window at the port remained open. In September, there was uncertainty about Iranian shipping. If Iranian plants shut down, it would support the price in the fourth quarter, and the methanol price showed a narrow - range fluctuation. - **Fourth Quarter**: Before the shutdown of Iranian plants, the import volume from Iran exceeded expectations, and the shipping volume reached a historical high. The port basis continued to decline, and the port inventory accumulation accelerated, putting pressure on the port basis. The 1 - 5 month spread first decreased and then rebounded due to the relatively fast shipping in the early stage of the fourth - quarter Iranian shipping. 3.2 2026 Methanol Supply - Demand Pattern Outlook 3.2.1 Supply - Side Device Commissioning - **Domestic**: In 2025, the domestic methanol new - project volume was considerable, and most projects were equipped with downstream facilities. The production process of new projects in 2025 involved coal - based, coke - oven gas - based, and carbon dioxide hydrogenation - based methods. Three new plants were commissioned in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total upstream production capacity of 6.7 million tons, and most of them were配套 with downstream facilities. In 2026, the planned commissioning production capacity was 5.55 million tons, including large - scale projects such as China Coal Yulin and Inner Mongolia Zhuozheng, but they were all配套 with downstream facilities, so the actual external sales volume was limited. - **Overseas**: In 2025, the overseas new commissioning production capacity was 3.4 million tons, including Sarawak in Malaysia (1.75 million tons/year) and Apadana in Iran (1.65 million tons/year). In 2026, attention should be paid to the 1.65 - million - ton/year Denapetro (DPC) plant in Iran. - **Iranian Shipping**: In the fourth quarter of 2024, the early arrival of overseas cold snaps led to the shutdown of some Iranian plants and a strengthening of the port basis. In the first quarter of 2025, the monthly average shipping volume from Iran was about 210,000 tons, and the import volume decreased by 40% compared with the first quarter of 2024 due to the delayed restart of Iranian plants. In the second quarter, the Iran - Israel conflict affected Iranian methanol production areas, and the shipping volume in June decreased sharply. In the third quarter, the conflict cooled down, and Iran adopted low - inventory shipping, with a monthly average shipping volume of 960,000 tons, putting pressure on the port. 3.2.2 Demand - Side Device Commissioning - **MTO Demand in 2026**: In 2025, one new MTO plant (Inner Mongolia Baofeng) was commissioned in the first quarter. Shandong Lianhong was postponed until December 2025. In 2026, a Guangxi Huayi MTO plant is expected to be commissioned in May. - **Traditional Demand in 2025**: In the first quarter, the downstream weighted operating rate was relatively high compared with the historical average, driven by the inland MTO demand. The MTBE demand increased significantly, with more export orders and new plant commissioning. In the second quarter, the downstream situation was affected by summer maintenance, but the operating rate was still acceptable. In the third quarter, the traditional downstream operating rate weakened, but the demand was resilient, with the demand increment mainly in acetic acid and MTBE. - **New Downstream Commissioning in 2026**: In 2025, the new downstream demand pattern was acceptable, with a slower growth rate compared with 2024. The new downstream industries mainly included BDO, acetic acid, silicone, formaldehyde, MTBE, and DMF, with BDO and acetic acid having the largest new production capacity. In 2026, there are many new downstream commissioning plans, including MTO, acetic acid, MTBE, BDO, and ethanol projects, which will support the methanol demand. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Views - **Balance Sheet**: The 05 contract is in a process of continuous inventory reduction. In the short - term, the port is a stock - based competition market due to the improvement of the willingness to hold goods, slow unloading speed, and concentrated cargo rights, which has led to an increase in port basis. The strong inland demand has relieved the port pressure. In the long - run, the port contradictions will ease, and the pressure of high supply will decrease. Inland, the supply - demand situation is relatively healthy in the long - run, although there are short - term fluctuations. - **Strategy Views**: The future game points of methanol may include the inventory accumulation expectation after Iran's return (continued high - volume shipping), the huge demand increment brought by the commissioning of Huayi, and the limited upside potential of methanol due to the pressure on upstream and downstream industries.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the polysilicon futures price showed a wide - range oscillation, and it was difficult to judge the trend. The core logic of the price trend focused on factors such as supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [2]. - The industry's fundamentals presented a "weak supply and demand" characteristic. The polysilicon production was on a downward trend, and the expansion of industry supply slowed down significantly. The production of downstream silicon wafers, cells, and components was also under pressure, and the overall industrial chain was contracting. The polysilicon inventory remained at a recent high without an obvious inflection point. The component tendering market was weak this week, with a decline in both the tendering quantity and the average transaction price [2]. - The subsequent trading logic was recommended to be based on the technical analysis supported by price trends and volume - energy changes, as the fundamentals were temporarily ineffective [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price included supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [2]. - The near - term trading logic (before the Spring Festival in 2026) involved warehouse receipt registration, supply - and - demand side reduction and shutdown, and technical - side long - position holdings. The long - term trading logic (after the Spring Festival in 2026) included observing the progress of "anti - involution" policies, photovoltaic policies, and downstream and overseas photovoltaic demand [7]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - The polysilicon futures price was expected to oscillate widely, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% over three years [8]. - For polysilicon sales, to prevent price drops and profit losses, enterprises could sell far - month futures contracts according to production plans (20% recommended hedging ratio) or use a combined option strategy (10% recommended hedging ratio). For polysilicon procurement, different hedging strategies were recommended based on different procurement models, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 20% [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Information - On December 26, the two ministries stated that by 2030, the power grid would accept 900GW of distributed new energy, with an expected increase of 400GW. - On December 30, Zhonglai Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary won the bid for a photovoltaic component project [9]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 58,145 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.53%. The trading volume was 36,300 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 76.92%, and the open interest was 136,500 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 76,300 lots. The month - spread between PS2602 and PS2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 720 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,030 lots, a week - on - week increase of 70 lots [11]. - Technically, the polysilicon futures price ran near the 20 - day line, showing a "long - and - short position reduction and oscillation" feature. It also ran near the middle of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth of the Bollinger Band oscillated and narrowed [12]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of polysilicon was still in a strong - oscillation state, the implied volatility of at - the - money options showed a weak - oscillation trend, and the PCR of option open interest was in a weak - oscillation state, indicating a decreasing bearish sentiment in the market. The net long - position scale showed signs of reduction, and the futures term structure was in a chaotic state [14][16][18]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and components showed different degrees of change this week. For example, the price of N - type re -投料 increased by 1.72% week - on - week, and the price index of silicon wafers increased by 10.00% week - on - week [24]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises was stable. The spot profit of polysilicon showed a stable trend, and the profit of the silane method was higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The gross profit margin of polysilicon futures was about 35.42% [25]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic polysilicon production showed different trends. SMM's weekly production was 24,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14%, while Baichuan's weekly production was 26,580 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%. The total domestic polysilicon inventory was 537,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60% [30][35]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - The weekly production of silicon wafers was 10.18GW, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45%, and the weekly inventory was 23.19GW, a week - on - week increase of 6.92% [38]. 3.5.3 Cell Supply - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells was 8.63GW, a week - on - week decrease of 14.21% [48]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components was 31.2GW, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% [54]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The photovoltaic winning bid capacity was 361.73MW, a week - on - week decrease of 78.55%, and the average winning bid price was 0.74 yuan/watt, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33% [56]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - No specific data analysis was provided in the text, but there were charts related to China's monthly new photovoltaic installation volume and green power generation [59][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory structure of coking coal has improved compared to the previous period, with the end of the year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports and a possible decline in seaborne coal arrivals. The price rebound of coking coal depends on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year. If the resumption is less than expected, winter storage replenishment may drive the price up; otherwise, there will be significant pressure on the price rebound [2]. - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the immediate coking profit has declined marginally. The coking plants lack the enthusiasm to increase production. If the iron - making production recovers quickly, the supply - demand structure of coke is expected to improve, and the fifth round of price cuts may face significant resistance [2]. - The trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The operating range of JM2605 is predicted to be between 1000 - 1150, and that of J2605 is between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal: The end - of - year surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, but the inventory pressure in the port supervision area is still high. The Australian coal price index is stable with a slight increase, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is severely inverted, narrowing the import window for seaborne coal. The subsequent arrivals of coking coal may decline. The key is to focus on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year [2]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the immediate coking profit is under short - term pressure, and coking plants lack the motivation to increase production. Attention should be paid to the recovery elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. 3.1.2 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Volatile consolidation [10]. - Price range: JM2605 is expected to operate between 1000 - 1150; J2605 between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal - washing plants have declined, and the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal has decreased [10]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory of the coking coal sample has increased, with an increase in the inventory of independent coking plants and port - imported coking coal, and a decrease in the inventory of 247 steel mills [13]. - Coke supply: The operating rates and daily average output of independent coking plants and 247 steel mills have changed slightly [13]. - Coke inventory: The total inventory of the coke sample has increased, with a decrease in the inventory of independent coking plants and an increase in the inventory of 247 steel mills and port coke [13]. - Coal - coke futures prices: The spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke have changed, and the spot prices of coking coal have not stopped falling. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented [14]. - Black warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipt quantities of coking coal and coke have changed [15]. - Warehouse receipt cost and basis: The cost of coking coal and coke warehouse receipts varies, and the basis has also changed [16][20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu plan to raise the benchmark price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and some steel mills have accepted the price increase [21]. - Bearish information: Not provided in the document. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor a series of economic data from the United States, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI in December, the final value of the S&P Global services PMI in December, ADP employment figures in December, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3rd, and non - farm payrolls in December [25]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal is supported around 1000 points. If there is no new driving force, the 05 contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150. The trend of coke still follows that of coking coal, and the 05 contract of coke is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1760 [26]. - Spread structure: The long - short spread of coking coal from January to May has strengthened, and the spread of coke from January to May has fluctuated at a low level. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of coking coal from May to September, with an advisable entry interval of (- 40, - 50) [29]. - Basis structure: The main contract of coking coal has mainly fluctuated, and the spot prices of some coal types in Shanxi have been lowered. The 05 basis has continued to shrink, and the current basis of coking coal is neutral. The 05 basis of coke has shrunk. If the coke disk continues to rebound and is at a premium to the spot warehouse receipt, industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industrial Chain - The theoretical profits of coking coal mines have shrunk, the immediate coking profits are under pressure, and the profitability of downstream steel mills has improved, showing that upstream mines and coking plants are transferring profits to downstream steel mills [46]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import - Export Profits - The year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, and the customs clearance pressure is expected to ease. The long - term contract price at the Mongolian coal pithead has increased by about 7 US dollars in the first quarter, and the estimated minimum cost of the long - term contract warehouse receipt is about 900 yuan/ton [51]. - The FOB quotes of Australian coal are firm, and the CFR prices in China remain unchanged, indicating strong overseas demand for coking coal. The theoretical import profit of domestic port seaborne coal has expanded, and the coal shipping volume has decreased week - on - week [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Coking Coal Supply Side - Considering the "good start" of mines in January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase. It is currently estimated that the average weekly production of domestic coking coal in January will be about 923 - 925 million tons. In terms of imports, the average weekly import volume of coking coal may drop to about 250 million tons in January. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coking coal in January is expected to be 230 - 231 million tons per day [69]. 3.5.2 Deduction of the Coke Supply Side - After the full implementation of the fourth round of price cuts, it is rumored that the fifth round may start on the 10th. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coking plants is average, and the coke output changes little. It is estimated that the average weekly production of coke in January will be 766 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, and it is estimated that the average weekly export volume of coke in January will be 15 million tons. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coke in January is expected to be 231 - 232 million tons per day [72]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Demand Side - According to SMM's maintenance data, the iron - making output is expected to stabilize in the short term, and some steel mills have plans to resume production in January. The demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve marginally. It is estimated that the average daily iron - making output per week in January will be 230 - 231 million tons [76]. 3.5.4 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are presented, including production, net imports, total supply, supply - converted theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, obvious inventory, and inventory changes [79].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea is in a phase of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity in 2026, and its price center will further decline but be supported by export policies. In the first half of the year, the urea market will fluctuate according to the demand rhythm during the agricultural peak season, and exports may be suspended. In the second half of the year, the price trend will be more policy - driven to relieve domestic supply pressure. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation during the domestic demand peak season, likely to start a month before the Spring Festival in 2026, with the top range between 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts [3]. - The short - term domestic urea market is weakly stagnant, with the mainstream price of small and medium - sized particles in the reference range of 1560 - 1710 yuan/ton. The downstream resists high prices, and the upstream prices are mostly stable with some local markets slightly declining [11]. - The trend of urea is expected to be weakly volatile. The operating range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea is in a supply - surplus phase due to new capacity release in 2026. The price is influenced by export policies. The 05 contract has a price - increase expectation during the demand peak season [3]. - Although new delivery warehouses have been added, the cheapest deliverable locations are still Henan and Shandong. The 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse - arbitrage pattern, and the 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [6]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to run weakly with fluctuations. The operating range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. Short at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [13]. - **Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong due to peak - season demand expectations. The upper pressure of the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton. Short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread. There is no hedging arbitrage strategy [14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerned Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fourth quarter is the winter - storage phase of the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL has issued a new urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons [16]. - **Negative Information**: The current domestic daily urea production is 208,100 tons. After the maintenance of some plants in Shandong and Jiangsu is completed and some gas - based plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan are shut down for maintenance, the domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly to around 200,000 tons [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, an increase from this week. There are no planned shutdowns for enterprises next week, and 5 - 6 plants may resume production [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The domestic urea market continued to rise steadily over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of small and medium - sized particles is in the range of 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. The fourth batch of urea export quotas and the new Indian tender have boosted market sentiment, but downstream resistance has emerged. The short - term market will continue to be moderately strong [19]. - **Basis and Month - Spread Structure**: Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. The compound fertilizer and industrial demand are weak, and the price drive is limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse - arbitrage pattern [20]. 3.2 Industrial Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% in three years [25]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, short urea futures to lock in profits, buy put options to prevent price drops, and sell call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs, sell put options to collect premiums, and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [25]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Analyze the seasonal production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural - gas, and water - coal - slurry gasification methods [27][28][30]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - Track the daily and weekly production, capacity utilization, and coal - based and natural - gas - based capacity utilization of urea [36][37]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - Observe the seasonal inventory of Chinese urea enterprises, ports, and in Guangdong and Guangxi regions, as well as the total inventory of ports and the inland [39][40][42]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - Monitor the capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and profit of compound fertilizers, as well as the market prices, capacity utilization, production volume, and profit of melamine in different regions [44][48][55]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - Track the seasonal production and sales of urea in different regions and the market price of 45% S compound fertilizer in Henan [68][69].

Market Overview - As of January 2, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warehouse stocks at 97,925 tons, with cancellations of 8,400 tons, resulting in a net decrease of 750 tons. Total zinc inventory stands at 106,325 tons, down by 1,300 tons [1] - The Shanghai zinc futures inventory recorded 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Production Forecast - Refined zinc production is projected to be 552,100 tons in December 2025, which is below expectations. However, production is expected to increase to 569,400 tons in January 2026 [3] Institutional Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall market sentiment is warming. The treatment charges (TC) have stabilized due to the opening of the import window, but are expected to decline in January. The domestic raw material supply remains tight in the short term, while the supply side is expected to loosen in the long term. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts is providing support for Shanghai zinc prices. The outlook suggests that while low domestic inventory supports prices, there is a lack of upward driving force in the fundamentals, leading to a range-bound market [4] - Guangzhou Futures anticipates that the medium to long-term focus for zinc prices will gradually shift upward. However, due to the traditional off-season in the first quarter, short-term upward potential is limited. Prices are expected to trend upward after the holiday, followed by a transition into a range-bound market [5]