南华期货煤焦产业周报 ——下游补库临近尾声，焦煤现货续涨存疑 张泫（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月27日 近期焦煤矿山开工率持续抬升，蒙煤积极通关，焦煤供应旺盛。节前补库临近尾声，节后焦煤库存结构有边 际恶化的风险，预计现货挺价难度将逐步提高。焦炭提涨正式开启，预计国庆节中或节后正式落地，届时即 期焦化利润有望小幅改善，短期内焦企大面积减产的概率不高。高炉钢厂积极增产，铁水产量仍在240万吨以 上的高位，用焦需求旺盛，焦炭供需无明显矛盾。展望后市，节前补库逻辑基本交易完毕，后续焦煤坑口挺 价难度较大，短期盘面或面临一定下行压力，焦炭供需矛盾不大，走势跟随焦煤为主。中长期来看，"反内 卷"仍是下半年市场的交易主线，需警惕宏观情绪波动及矿山超产检查对煤焦市场的扰动，市场参与者对后市 预期逐渐改善，持货意愿相比上半年也有所增强。我们维持之前的判断，煤焦不作为黑色系空配，预期焦煤 主力盘面维持宽幅震荡格局，突破前高需要看到实质性利好政策出台或煤矿开工率超预期下滑。后续关注国 庆节后终端需求恢复情况、10月底四中全会及十五五规划纲要的提出。 中国精 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products increased compared to the previous week, and the inventory changed from an increase to a decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased week-on-week, while that for hot-rolled coils decreased. Seasonally, the week-on-week rebound of rebar demand is in line with expectations and is likely the high or second-high point for the second half of the year, but the current demand remains weak, suggesting limited improvement in the future. The inventory shows a pattern of "decreasing rebar and increasing hot-rolled coils," and all products are in a state of super-seasonal inventory accumulation. High supply exerts pressure on the market, but high molten iron production and pre-holiday raw material restocking support costs. However, post-holiday restocking may weaken, and continuous super-seasonal inventory accumulation could lead to negative feedback and production cuts [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly range for the 01 contract of rebar is 3000 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.63% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot-rolled coils, the range is 3200 - 3500, with a volatility of 11.11% and a percentile of 9.72% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory, sell rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2501 at 3150 - 3200 and 30% for HC2501 at 3350 - 3400) to lock in profits. Also, sell call options (20% for RB2601C3400 at 35 - 45) to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, buy rebar or hot-rolled coil futures (30% for RB2601 and HC2601 at 3050 - 3100 and 3250 - 3300) to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (20% for RB2601P3000 at 50 - 60) to collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, rebar futures prices decreased compared to the previous day, with the 01 contract closing at 3114 (-53). Spot prices also declined, e.g., the national average was 3288 (-18). Hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices also fell, with the 01 contract closing at 3313 (-45) and the Shanghai spot price at 3370 (-30) [7]. - **Overseas Data**: Hot-rolled coil FOB export prices in China, Japan, India, etc., decreased slightly week-on-week. CFR import prices in some regions also declined [8]. - **Spreads**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread was -57 (+1), and the hot-rolled coil 10 - 01 month spread was 82 (+20). The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Shanghai was 130 (-30) [8]. - **Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 3.93 (+0.0136), and the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 1.84 (+0.04) [9]. - **Seasonal Data**: Various seasonal charts are provided, including rebar and hot-rolled coil basis, month spreads, and profit margins [10][11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish strategy for cotton investment [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zhengzhou cotton continued its weak performance this week. New cotton listing is delayed, and downstream demand shows signs of weakening. With new cotton about to enter the market, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of September 18, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.8%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points from the four - year average. The national delivery rate was 15.8%, up 6 percentage points year - on - year and 7.1 percentage points from the four - year average [1] - **Import**: In August, China's cotton import volume was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. The棉纱 import volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: In August, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 104.5 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.74% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Textile and clothing export volume was $26.539 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1] - **Inventory**: As of September 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.038 million tons, a decrease of 336,000 tons from the end of August. Commercial inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons, and industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons [1] International Market - **US Supply**: As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind year - on - year and the same as the five - year average. The overall good and excellent rate of cotton plants was 47%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 10 percentage points [1] - **US Demand**: From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 25/26 - year - old upland cotton was 19,527 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 54% and a decrease of 54% compared with the four - week average. The shipment of upland cotton was 31,116 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14% and an increase of 6% compared with the four - week average. The net signing of Pima cotton was 1,928 tons, and the shipment was 1,179 tons. There were no new signings for 26/27 - year - old upland and Pima cotton this week [1] - **Southeast Asian Supply**: As of recently, India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from the same period last year. Some southern states had an increase in planting area, but due to rainfall, there are still differences in the market's prediction of India's new - year cotton output [1] - **Southeast Asian Demand**: In August, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was $3.86 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Bangladesh's clothing export volume was $3.17 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, India's clothing export volume was $1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In August, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was $1.524 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 9.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34% [4] Market Outlook - New cotton in Xinjiang may be concentrated on the market during the National Day. Downstream yarn mills maintain stable load and replenish raw materials as needed, but the overall operating rate of fabric mills has slightly decreased, and the off - take speed of finished products has slowed down. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase, but its market expansion faces challenges. Last week, the weekly export volume of US cotton decreased [3]

南华豆一产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 豆一11合约价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3850-4000 | 10.16% | 31.4% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 豆一风险策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 种植主体，秋季收获新豆售粮 需求较大，但阶段性卖压较大 | 多 | 借助期价反弹，适当 锁定种植利润，做空 | A2511 | 空 | 30% | 4000-4050（持有） | | | 使价格承压 | | 豆一期货 | | | | | | 库存管理 | 集中上市，卖方议价权减弱 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权，提高 | A2511- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]

寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2500-2900 | 22.00% | 39.1% | 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 2800-285 0 | | | | 多 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Near the holiday, there are signs of capital withdrawal, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the two markets today. Technology concepts led the decline, while the dividend index rose. To cope with holiday uncertainties in the short term, risk aversion has increased. Although the stock market fluctuated frequently this week, as previously mentioned, the central point did not change much, showing a pre - holiday stable transition and wide - range shock market. There are only two trading days next week. If there are no unexpected factors, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Domestic PMI data will be released, and attention should be paid to its changes. If capital flow intensifies before the holiday, it may increase the stock market's amplitude. It is recommended to gradually lighten the position and buy the straddle option strategy next week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined overall today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.95%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 224.05 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will launch a RMB business capital arrangement from October 9 this year, replacing the existing RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement, and implementing multiple optimization measures and expanding eligible capital uses. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)". - Trump announced that starting from October 1, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [3]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.04 | -0.47 | -1.47 | -1.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1085 | 4.8226 | 13.6035 | 24.299 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -1.2397 | -0.3587 | 0.637 | 3.0154 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.9924 | 9.5988 | 25.2224 | 36.4864 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.6449 | 0.1041 | 0.3365 | 1.1537 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.76 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.53 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21468.85 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | -2242.05 | [6]

南华原油风险管理日报 2025年9月26日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 隔夜原油延续反弹态势，不仅突破前期高点，还打破了此前的震荡收敛格局，但整体仍处于横盘震荡大框 架内。此次反弹主要受俄乌地缘风险推动，乌克兰频繁袭击俄罗斯石油设施，包括新罗西斯克港这一俄最 大原油出口港，引发市场对俄石油供应下滑的担忧，叠加多头情绪偏强且小幅增仓，共同支撑油价走高。 值得注意的是，按此前地缘驱动节奏，当前原油反弹的时间与空间已基本到位，需警惕油价重复"反弹后 回落"走势、重回震荡区间。若无重大地缘事件，原油上方空间有限，大趋势仍为弱势，中长期或维持弱 势横盘或呈向下趋势，短期多空天平变化还需盘面及供应数据进一步验证。 美国原油周度出口量季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 万桶/天 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 09/01 200 400 美国馏分燃料油当周库存环比/MA4季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 千桶 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 ...

南华期货赴港上市 近日，南华期货获得中国证监会赴港上市备案通知书，拟发行不超过1.24亿H股在香港联交所（下称港 交所）主板上市。作为A股首家上市期货公司，南华期货此次迈向"A+H"双平台上市，不仅是企业自身 发展的里程碑，更是中国期货行业加速国际化布局的缩影。这一举措不仅对南华期货发展产生深远影 响，同时也折射出国内期货公司不断壮大背后的多重驱动力。 提升国际形象： 从"内卷"到"外拓"的必然选择 南华期货赴港上市反映了国内期货行业的发展趋势。目前，境内期货经纪业务同质化竞争激烈，利润空 间收窄，头部期货公司纷纷通过海外布局寻找新增量。中期协数据显示，截至2025年6月，国内期货公 司已在全球设立67家境外子公司，业务覆盖期货、证券、资管等领域。海外业务不仅缓解了国内期货行 业的"内卷式"竞争，还成为期货公司业绩增长的新引擎。 从"本土先行者"到"全球玩家" 南华期货的国际化布局并非一朝一夕之功。公司成立于1996年，根植浙江近30年，得益于浙江深厚的商 业传统和浙商"重视商业、敢于冒险"的精神。早在2006年，作为CEPA3框架下第一批"走出去"的内资期 货公司，南华期货就在香港设立了第一家境外子公司，迈 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the article emphasizes the importance of financial education and consumer rights protection, as demonstrated by the company's active participation in the 2025 Financial Education Promotion Week [1] - The company has set up a dedicated team to promote financial knowledge through various channels, achieving a reach of over 1.39 million people through online and offline efforts [1][9] - The company has developed innovative educational products, such as the "Future is Promising" crossbody bag and "Accumulating Wealth" pencil case, to make financial concepts more accessible and engaging for investors, particularly students [8][12] Group 2 - The company collaborated with local authorities and media to create a unique educational experience for students, including a special "First Class" event at Zhejiang University of Technology, aimed at enhancing financial safety awareness [15][17] - A series of immersive educational activities were conducted at the company's investor education base, allowing students to experience the futures market and understand its operational processes [18][19] - The company also engaged with multiple universities, including Harbin Financial College and Jilin University, to promote financial literacy and risk management skills among students [23][25][26] Group 3 - The company aims to enhance the effectiveness of its financial education initiatives by continuously improving the appeal and impact of its activities, thereby fostering a fair financial environment [27] - The ongoing commitment to financial knowledge dissemination is seen as a long-term effort to protect investors' rights and contribute to a healthy financial market [27]