南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年7月17日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 77980 | 73000-80000 | 10.30% | 15.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2509C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜 ...

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月17日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 35.2% | 0.00% | 96.3% | -0.2% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 45.45% | 2.06% | 85.07% | 3.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 为 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | 导 向 | | | | | | | 库 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来锁定利 润 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. One round of price hikes has started, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rounds. In the short - term, the downstream steel mills are profitable, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke is supported, with the futures market likely to remain strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and high iron - making output may not be sustainable. Once the macro sentiment fades, the speculative demand release will intensify the resonance decline of the black chain. In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, being cautious about chasing high prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 800 - 980, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.17% and a historical percentile of 62.88%. For coke, the price range is 1400 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.09% and a historical percentile of 48.21% [3]. 2. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1550 - 1600 and 50% when the entry range is 1600 - 1650 [3]. 3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 2086 tons, iron ore decreased by 100 lots, and silicon - manganese decreased by 546 contracts. The inventory of other varieties remained unchanged [3]. 4. Analysis of Core Contradictions - In the short - term, the market is likely to remain strong due to warm macro - atmosphere, tight spot liquidity, and good downstream steel mill profits. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and high iron - making output may not be sustainable. It is recommended to focus on spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading [4]. 5. Interpretation of Bullish Factors - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100 yuan, and it is difficult to reduce iron - making output in July. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [5]. 6. Interpretation of Bearish Factors - Coal mines in Shanxi have复产 unexpectedly. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent arrival pressure at ports will increase [7]. 7. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the basis of some coking coal and coke varieties has changed, and the coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc. have also changed slightly [7]. 8. Coking Coal and Coke Spot Price - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the price of some coking coal and coke varieties has changed, and the import profit of some coal varieties has also changed [8][9].

国投安信期货表示，近期氧化铝现货上涨趋势缓和，国内氧化铝运行产能回升至历史高位进入过剩状 态，几内亚矿企存在复产预期，但上期所仓单库存依然仅两万余吨，期货暂难深跌，关注现货成交价格 变化。 7月17日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，氧化铝期货主力合约开盘报3100.0元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，氧化铝主力最高触及3123.0元，下方探低3055.0元，跌幅达2.39%。 目前来看，氧化铝行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于氧化铝后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 南华期货（603093）指出，有消息表示顺达矿业将于8月复产，矿端报价有所下调。基本面方面，随着 氧化铝利润修复，企业持续复产陆续发生，氧化铝运行产能持续增加，预计累库将继续。目前考虑到7 月将有进口氧化铝到港且当前氧化铝仍有生产利润复产与新投产还在继续，同时随着新疆发运问题解决 各地向新疆交仓增加，氧化铝挤仓风险降低。总的来说，氧化铝供应过剩预期暂时还未改变，随着期现 价差拉平，上行动力有所减弱短期或维持高位震荡，推荐逢高沽空远月合约。 铜冠金源期货分析称，暂时氧化铝基于仍较为可控的有限现货流动量和向上惯性，现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures' overseas subsidiary, Henghua International, has become one of the first LME warrant holders in Hong Kong, enhancing the city's role as a major hub for commodity pricing and storage in Asia [3][4]. Group 1: Business Development - Henghua International's status as a first LME warrant holder aligns with Hong Kong's strategic goal of becoming a world-class commodity storage center, providing new opportunities for Nanhua Futures in the Asian metal market [3][4]. - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting the establishment of world-class storage facilities for gold and base metals, which will increase commodity storage capacity and support the LME's operations in the region [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The establishment of LME warehouses in Hong Kong will significantly reduce logistics costs and streamline processes for Asian companies involved in international metal trading, enhancing their participation in global metal pricing [4]. - The proximity of Hong Kong to the Pearl River Delta industrial zone, along with its efficient customs processes, provides a convenient physical delivery platform for the Asian metal industry [4]. Group 3: Service Model Innovation - Nanhua Futures has developed a comprehensive service model that includes shipping, customs clearance, warehousing, warrant generation, hedging, and warrant financing, significantly lowering cross-border transaction costs for Chinese enterprises [6][8]. - As a first LME warrant holder, Nanhua Futures has gained a competitive edge in attracting international metal traders and manufacturers, enhancing customer loyalty and service capabilities [7]. Group 4: Future Growth Strategy - Nanhua Futures plans to leverage its LME Hong Kong delivery business to enhance its service capabilities for real enterprises and expand the tools available for price risk hedging [8]. - The company aims to integrate financial technology into its operations to improve service standardization and digitalization, thereby strengthening its competitiveness in cross-border commodity services [8].

南华贵金属日报: 美CPI削弱9月降息预期 贵金属承压调整 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月16日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场呈现调整，美指和10Y美债收益率大幅走高对其形成利空压力，周边美股和比特币下跌， 原油震荡，南华有色金属震荡。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3330.5美元/盎司，-0.85%；美白银2509合 约收报于37.985美元/盎司，-1.95%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约780.4元/克，+1.06%；SHFE白银2510合约 收9225元/千克，+0.52%。近期美国贸易关税交易重回焦点。美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%，为2月以来最高纪 录，预期2.6%，前值2.4%；环比0.3%，符合预期，前值0.1%，涨幅扩大主要受能源价格上涨影响。核心CPI 同比上涨2.9%，符合预期，前值2.8%；环比涨幅0.2%，高于前值0.1%，但低于预期0.3%，为连续第五个月 低于预期。数据整体反映关税对美通胀影响仍处于初步阶段。数据后贵金属承压调整，降息预期整体略有降 温。美联储26年票委洛根表示，基准预期是货币政策需 ...

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7100-7400 | 12.32% | 21.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | 析 | 口 | | | 向 | | 区间 | | | 产成品 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空塑料 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7250-73 | | | 库存偏 | | 期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | 00 | | 库存管 | 高，担 | 多 | | | | | | | 理 | 心 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity and entering the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The downstream demand support is expected to strengthen, but inventory remains at a historical high. Overall, the price will show a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of placing long orders for industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, the expected reduction in electricity prices and increased profits may boost production capacity. However, demand growth is limited, and high inventory pressure persists. If effective industry integration or coordinated production reduction measures are implemented, it may reverse the current situation. It is recommended to focus on the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 - PS2511 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon **Futures Data** - The industrial silicon futures main contract shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.5%, a daily decline of 0.19%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 96.3%. The main contract's closing price was 8785 yuan/ton, with a 1.04% increase; trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, down 3.87%; and open interest was 396,653 lots, down 1.55% [2][12]. - The SI09 - 11 spread was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SI11 - 12 spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [14]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions have increased, such as the East China 553 at 9150 yuan/ton, up 1.67%, and the East China 421 at 9500 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The East China 553 basis was 365 yuan/ton, up 19.67%, and the East China 421 basis was 715 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The East China 421 - 553 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 16.67% [16]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts were 50,258 lots, up 29.69%. Warehouse receipts in various delivery warehouses showed different changes, such as a 6.59% increase in the Tianjin delivery warehouse to 10.1 million tons [22][23]. Polysilicon **Futures Data** - The polysilicon futures main contract also shows a wide - range oscillation, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 44.05%, a daily decline of 0.94%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility of 82.57%. The main contract's closing price was 42,470 yuan/ton, with a 1.69% increase; trading volume was 565,746 lots, up 20.29%; and open interest was 69,821 lots, down 10.86% [2][25]. - The PS08 - 09 spread was 350 yuan/ton, up 9.38%; the PS08 - 11 spread was 1530 yuan/ton, down 5.56%; the PS09 - 11 spread was 1180 yuan/ton, down 9.23%; the PS11 - 12 spread was - 2270 yuan/ton, down 5.34% [27]. **Spot Data** - Spot prices of polysilicon showed little change. For example, the N - type polysilicon price index remained at 43.45 yuan/kg, and the particle silicon price decreased by 1.15% to 43 yuan/kg [32]. **Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data** - The polysilicon main contract basis was 980 yuan/ton, down 41.84%; the PS2509 contract basis was 1330 yuan/ton, down 33.7%; the PS2511 contract basis was 2510 yuan/ton, down 24.05%. Warehouse receipts in various regions remained unchanged [39][41].

张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素套保策略表 尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/07/15 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 【利空解读】 受国内政策压制，协会要求工厂低价销售尿素，给现货情绪带来负面影响。 . 免責声明 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | ...

周一贵金属市场剧烈波动，特别是白银冲高回落，铂金跌幅较大，钯金波幅较宽。周边美指和美债收益率 走高，美股震荡，比特币冲高后回落，原油下跌，南华有色金属震荡。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报 3352.1美元/盎司，-0.35%；美白银2509合约收报于38.41美元/盎司，-1.4%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约 781.4/克，+1.06%；SHFE白银2510合约收9207元/千克，+2.11%。近期美国贸易关税交易重回焦点。 南华贵金属日报: 聚焦美CPI 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月15日 【行情回顾】 【降息预期与基金持仓】 降息预期略有降温。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为94.8%，降息25 个基点的概率为5.2%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为36.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为60%，累计降 息50个基点的概率为3.2%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率14.8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.1%，累 计降息50个基点的概率为37.2%，累计降息75个基点的概率为1.9%。长线 ...