Report Information - Report Name: Oil Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Chen [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Certificate Number: Z0022868 [1] - Transaction Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Current domestic oil market has limited positive factors, mainly driven by uncertainties in origin supply, US biodiesel policy, and international trade relations [3] - Palm oil in Malaysia entered the production - reduction season early due to drought, and inventory pressure is expected to ease; Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth; India's consumption season supports global palm oil consumption [3] - US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing, and the tightened US soybean balance sheet supports soybean prices. Sino - US trade relations may lead to a soybean import gap in Q4 [3] - For rapeseed oil, recent origin weather has little impact, and China - Canada relations are a focus. Importing directly and opening the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for the Canadian gap [3] - Short - term market may fluctuate widely. Strategies should be based on a volatile outlook, not recommended to short. Consider P1 - 5 positive spread opportunities and the possibility of Y01 - P01 spread narrowing [3] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: Monthly price ranges are 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton for soybean oil, 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton for rapeseed oil, and 9200 - 9900 yuan/ton for palm oil. Current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.5%, 10.4%, and 20.2% respectively, with 3 - year historical percentiles of 2.4%, 0.1%, and 24.1% [2] - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high oil inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% ratio at 8900 - 9000 yuan/ton; refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8200 - 8500 yuan/ton; oil mills worried about high - cost inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - **Leveraging Factors**: Floods in Sabah may reduce Malaysian palm oil production; SPPOMA data shows a decline in production; China's Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may boost downstream demand [6] - **Restraining Factors**: USDA's higher - than - expected US soybean yield eases supply pressure; Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy due to opposition from some state senators; High domestic oil inventory restricts price increase [6][7] Price Data - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 9424 yuan/ton (-0.61%), 05 at 9212 yuan/ton (-0.43%), 09 at 8888 yuan/ton (-0.13%); BMD palm oil main contract is at 4427 ringgit/ton (-1.07%); Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9210 yuan/ton (-170) [7][9] - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8366 yuan/ton (0%), 05 at 8098 yuan/ton (0%), 09 at 8048 yuan/ton (0%); CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.82 cents/pound (-2.58%); Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8540 yuan/ton (+30) [15][16] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9999 yuan/ton (0), 05 at 9533 yuan/ton (0), 09 at 9456 yuan/ton (0); ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 624.6 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.5); East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10110 yuan/ton (+50) [18]

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures experienced a decline of 5.01% on September 18, with a stock price of 21.82 CNY per share, a trading volume of 381 million CNY, a turnover rate of 2.81%, and a total market capitalization of 13.312 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on May 28, 1996, and listed on August 30, 2019, is based in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and its main business includes futures brokerage, wealth management, risk management, overseas financial services, and futures investment consulting [1] - The revenue composition of Nanhua Futures is as follows: risk management business 50.19%, overseas financial services 29.70%, futures brokerage 17.32%, wealth management 2.51%, and other businesses 0.28% [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures' major circulating shareholder is a fund under Southern Fund, specifically the Southern CSI 1000 ETF (512100), which increased its holdings by 310,800 shares in the second quarter, totaling 1.6839 million shares, representing 0.28% of circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating loss for the Southern CSI 1000 ETF today is approximately 1.9365 million CNY [2] - The Southern CSI 1000 ETF was established on September 29, 2016, with a current scale of 64.953 billion CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 28.17%, ranking 1822 out of 4222 in its category, and a one-year return of 72.87%, ranking 1263 out of 3804 [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soybeans is currently in a stage of loose supply, causing the spot price to decline [4]. - Mid - and downstream players are waiting for lower prices, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm and a bearish sentiment [4]. - The soybean futures market has broken through key levels, with increased positions and trading volume in active contracts, strengthening the bearish trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is predicted to be between 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. - **Risk Strategies**: - For inventory management of planting subjects, when there is a large demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but significant selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean futures contract at a hedging ratio of 30% in the price range of 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits [3]. - When there is a concentrated listing of soybeans and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is advisable to sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a hedging ratio of 30% in the range of 40 - 50 (holding) to increase the selling price [3]. - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is mainly recommended to wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on forward procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 contracts, waiting for price guidance in autumn [3]. Market Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: - Uncertainty in Sino - US trade. If soybean imports from the US continue to be halted or delayed in Q4, it may create a demand window for domestic soybeans [4]. - The suspension of this week's auctions, with attention on subsequent auction arrangements [4]. - There is an expected recovery in the demand for edible soybeans starting from September [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - The supply of soybeans is in a stage of loose supply, which is the core factor affecting the market [4][6]. - Purchasers are still waiting for lower prices, pushing the market to seek a new balance downwards [4][6]. - The closing prices of soybean No. 1 contracts on September 17, 2025, all declined compared to September 16, with daily declines ranging from 28 - 30 and daily decline rates from 0.70% - 0.76% [5].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the container shipping industry by Nanhua Futures, focusing on the European Line (EC) container shipping index futures [1] - It provides insights into market trends, trading strategies, and industry news for the week of September 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report [1] Group 3: Core Views - The core factors affecting the EC price are the spot cabin quotes on the European line and weak off - season demand. The continuous decline of spot cabin quotes in late September led to a weakening of the futures price [1] - In the short - term, the futures price may continue to oscillate slightly downward, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as it has reached a short - term low [4] - In the long - term, if the Red Sea resumes shipping due to geopolitical changes, or if the off - season demand further weakens, the European line freight rates may decline [7] Group 4: Trading Strategies Trading - Type Strategy - The trend is a continuation of the downward momentum. The short - term support for the main contract is in the range of 1050 - 1100, and the pressure level is in the range of 1200 - 1250 [9][10] - For hedging, one can sell at high positions, but also pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of the 12 - contract at 1550 - 1600 points [10] Arbitrage Strategy - For the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [12] Industrial Customer Operation Strategy - For the spot - futures (basis) strategy, traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [12] - For the cabin management of enterprises with full capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. For cost management, when the shipping company's empty - sailing intensity increases or the peak season is approaching, they can buy the container shipping index futures to lock in the booking cost [13] Group 5: Market Information Positive News - In the first eight months of 2025, the EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.88 trillion yuan, a 4.3% increase [27] - The Israeli Prime Minister's statement about the cease - fire in Gaza may potentially ease geopolitical tensions [27] - In the first half of 2025, China's cross - border e - commerce imports and exports showed a prosperous trend, with a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [27] Negative News - Mexico plans to impose up to 50% tariffs on Chinese and some Asian products [31] - The spot cabin quotes on the European line of major shipping companies continued to decline in late September, with Maersk and MSC's small - container quotes falling below $1000 [31] - The SCFI European line declined rapidly [31] Group 6: Market Analysis Single - Side Trend and Capital Flow - The EC futures price continued to oscillate weakly, guided by the spot booking price. Technically, the moving averages are in a short - position arrangement, with a slight downward expectation [30] - The net short - position of the main positions in container shipping decreased slightly, indicating a cautious trading sentiment [32] Basis Structure - The SCFIS European line continued to decline, with the basis narrowing compared to the previous week. Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [34] Inter - Period Structure - The spreads of the EC2510 - 2512 and EC2510 - 2602 contract combinations widened significantly. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [36][37] Group 7: Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, major shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING, Maersk, and CMA CGM had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits [39] - For the second half of the year, shipping companies believe that the uncertainty has increased, and they will focus more on cost control, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [39]

铜产业风险管理日报 2025/09/17 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80880 | 73000-80000 | 8.40% | 6.3% | 利空因素： source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2511C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The domestic soybean market is transitioning from a stage of expected supply loosening to a reality, exerting downward pressure on prices [3]. - Mid - and downstream players are waiting for the large - scale listing of new - season grains, with low acquisition enthusiasm and light current spot trading [3]. - The soybean No. 1 futures maintain a bearish trend under the suppression of supply loosening expectations [3]. - The future import rhythm will affect the demand for domestic soybeans due to the high uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Reducing or suspending the one - way auctions of Sinograin this week is beneficial for alleviating pressure on the spot market, and specific auction arrangements should be monitored [3]. - The consumer market is gradually recovering in September, with an expected rebound in edible demand [3]. - The new - season harvest and listing of domestic soybeans are causing significant pressure on prices, and the passive attitude of the procurement end may lead to price declines [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bean One Risk Strategy - For inventory management of planting subjects with high new - bean sales demand in autumn and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean No. 1 futures with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits [2]. - When there is a large - scale listing and weakening bargaining power of sellers, it is recommended to sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option with a 30% hedging ratio at 40 - 50 (holding) to increase the grain selling price [2]. - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices and aiming to reduce procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on forward procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605, waiting for price guidance in autumn [2]. Bean One Futures Price - On September 16, 2025, compared with September 15, the closing prices of all listed soybean No. 1 futures contracts declined, with the decline ranging from 0.25% to 0.38% [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about potential US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, the peak season has no unexpected performance, but after the crude oil stabilizes, consider a long - position allocation. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be only one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year as the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season after the negative factors of crude oil are digested [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 17.18%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 24.55% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories, to prevent losses from inventory price drops, they can short 25% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 call options at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs and lock in the selling price if the price rises [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, they can buy 50% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 put options at 25 - 35 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure is improving, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The crack spread remains high due to geopolitical concerns. In the short - term, the peak season is affected by weather, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, demand is expected to improve, and there may be one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region is the price trough due to restrictions on crude oil quotas and consumption tax [3]. 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - **Positive Factors**: Low factory inventory pressure, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Increased arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil, short - term demand drag from the rainy season in the South, slower social inventory reduction and weakening basis, and potential increase in operating rates due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3520 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3660 yuan/ton, and 3490 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract increased by 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot and the futures main contract against Brent crude oil decreased compared to the previous week [8]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - The report presents the seasonal data of the 09 - contract basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast China, as well as the seasonal data of the 06 - 09 and 09 - 12 futures month - spreads [9][10][11]. 3.8 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Data - The report shows the seasonal data of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates, as well as the total warehouse receipt quantities of asphalt in warehouses and factories [13][14].

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年9月16日 ——是的，原木行情很独立 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 780-830 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， | lg2511 卖出 | | 25% | 820-830 | | 理 | 下跌 | | 弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market is transitioning from a stage of expected supply looseness to an actual one, with prices mainly under pressure [2]. - Mid - and downstream players are waiting for a large supply of new - season grains and are bargaining for lower prices, resulting in low acquisition enthusiasm and light current spot trading [2]. - The soybean No.1 futures reflect the expectation of loose supply and maintain a bearish trend [2]. - Sino - US trade negotiations are ongoing, and future import rhythms will affect the demand for domestic soybeans [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Risk Strategies - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions, such as planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean No.1 futures at a hedging ratio of 30% when the price is between 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits. Also, sellers can sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call options at a hedging ratio of 30% with a holding price range of 40 - 50 to increase the selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those with short spot positions worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, since the probability of price decline is high, they should mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. They can go long on A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for the price guidance in autumn [2]. 3.2. Market Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: The absence of a single - way auction notice from Sinograin this week may reduce or suspend auctions, which is beneficial for alleviating pressure on the spot market. In addition, the consumer market is gradually recovering in September, and there is an expectation of a rebound in edible demand [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The Northeast production area is about to enter the peak harvest period. The current new - season harvest and listing of domestic soybeans have led to a large supply in the short term, putting significant pressure on prices. Moreover, the procurement side is inactive, and prices may seek a lower balance under the mindset of bargaining for low prices [3]. - **Price Changes**: From September 12 to September 15, 2025, the closing prices of all soybean No.1 contracts declined. For example, the closing price of soybean No.1 11 decreased from 3959 to 3939, a drop of 20 or 0.51%; the closing price of soybean No.1 09 decreased from 4081 to 4001, a drop of 80 or 1.96% [3].

锡产业风险管理日报 2025/09/16 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） source： 南华研究 南华观点： 锡价在近期的走强主要得益于美联储降息预期，推升了整个有色金属板块的估值。短期来看，现在投资者对 于美联储9月的利率决议已经基本保持预期一致，对10月也有较为统一的预期，因此货币政策对于锡价的影响 或降低。基本面供给偏紧的短期格局在9月或难以改变，需求的弱势暂时还无法对价格产生太大的影响。锡价 或继续围绕27.4万元每吨震荡。 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 2. 半导体板块仍处于扩张周期。 | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 273960 | 245000-263000 | 13.17% | 23.0% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | ...