证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-067 南华期货股份有限公司 关于香港联交所审议公司发行 H 股的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）正在进行申请发行境外上市股 份（H 股）并在香港联合交易所有限公司（以下简称"香港联交所"）主板上市 （以下简称"本次发行上市"）的相关工作。香港联交所上市委员会于 2025 年 11 月 20 日举行上市聆讯，审议公司本次发行上市的申请。 公司本次发行上市的独家保荐人已于 2025 年 11 月 21 日收到香港联交所向 其发出的信函，其中指出香港联交所上市委员会已审阅公司的上市申请，但该信 函不构成正式的上市批准，香港联交所仍有对公司的上市申请提出进一步意见的 权力。 公司本次发行上市尚需取得香港证券及期货事务监察委员会和香港联交所 等相关监管机构、证券交易所的最终批准，该事项仍存在不确定性。公司将根据 该事项的进展情况依法及时履行信息披露义务，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 南华期货股份有限公司董事会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Calculated based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.76% today. All sector indices declined, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index having the largest decline of -1.77% and the Nanhua Black Index having the smallest decline of -0.24%. Among the theme indices, only the Building Materials Index rose by 0.11%, while the rest declined. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.46%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest decline of -0.24%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Starch Index had the largest increase of 1.58%, and the Lithium Carbonate Index had the largest decline of -8.04% [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Indices - **Composite Index**: The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2502.56 today, down 19.21 points or -0.76% from yesterday. The annualized return was -0.99%, the annualized volatility was 11.59%, and the Sharpe ratio was -0.09 [3] - **Precious Metals Index**: The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 3456.21, down 23.43 points or -0.67% with an annualized return of -8.42% and an annualized volatility of 13.82% [3] - **Industrial Products Index**: The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) showed a decline, but specific data was not fully presented [3] - **Metal Index**: The Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 6404.75, down 41.93 points or -0.65% with an annualized return of 0.68% and an annualized volatility of 12.06% [3] - **Energy and Chemical Index**: The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1733.12, down 19.68 points or -1.12% with an annualized return of 4.37% and an annualized volatility of 12.47% [3] - **Black Index**: The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2482.40, down 5.91 points or -0.24% with an annualized return of -8.33% and an annualized volatility of 16.58% [3] - **Agricultural Products Index**: The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) had an annualized return of 9.76% [3] - **Mini - Composite Index**: The Nanhua Mini - Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1158.20, down 8.90 points or -0.76% with an annualized return of -1.09% [3] - **Energy Index**: The Nanhua Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 992.08, down 14.69 points or -1.46% with an annualized return of -2.22% and an annualized volatility of 20.36% [3] - **Petrochemical Index**: The Nanhua Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 875.55, down 7.83 points or -0.89% with an annualized return of -2.77% and an annualized volatility of 10.07% [3] - **Fine Chemical Index**: The Nanhua Fine Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 904.67, down 0.56% with an annualized return of -4.48% and an annualized volatility of 9.56% [3] - **Black Raw Materials Index**: The Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1045.83, down 5.77 points or -0.55% with an annualized return of -0.54% and an annualized volatility of 15.66% [3] - **Building Materials Index**: The Nanhua Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 687.69, up 0.75 points or 0.11% with an annualized return of -2.58% and an annualized volatility of 11.47% [3] - **Oilseeds and Oils Index**: The Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI) closed at 1233.00, down 2.94 points or -0.24% with an annualized return of -1.39% and an annualized volatility of 11.70% [3] - **Economic Crops Index**: The Nanhua Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 906.22, down 0.44% with an annualized return of 0.62% and an annualized volatility of 7.44% [3] 3.2 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Increase or Decrease to Index Increase or Decrease - **Nanhua Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Soda Ash (3.78%), Rebar (2.08%), etc.; negative contributors included Palm Oil (-11.35%), Cotton (-56.86%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Mini - Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Soda Ash (7.46%); negative contributors included Palm Oil (-0.39%), Natural Rubber (-0.39%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Positive contributors included First - class Company (5.51%); negative contributors included Natural Rubber (-0.39%), PVC (-0.77%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Positive contributors included Rebar (3.80%); negative contributors included Tin (-5.58%), Aluminum (-5.58%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Positive contributors included Pure Alkali (6.37%); negative contributors included Natural Rubber (-1.96%), Fuel Oil (-8.34%), etc [3] - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Positive contributors included Rapeseed Oil (4.23%), Corn (4.76%); negative contributors included Palm Oil (-5.78%), Cotton (-21.32%), etc [3] 3.3 Single - Variety Index Daily Increase or Decrease - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Pure Sand increased by 1.04%, Synthetic Ammonia decreased by 0.20%, etc [3] - **Black Sector**: Coal decreased by 1.15% [4] - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Starch increased by 1.58%, Corn increased by 1.25%, while Live Pigs decreased by 0.79%, etc [6] - **Other**: Orange - like products decreased by -0.64%, Low - magnetic fuel oil decreased by -1.94% [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data and the impact on the real economy. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, and the market may focus on this. Domestically, the economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the strength and effectiveness of policy support are key concerns [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate led to a decline in the US dollar index. The domestic LPR remained unchanged, having a neutral impact on the exchange rate. The RMB may gain some appreciation support later [4]. - The US September non - farm payroll report failed to resolve the Fed's internal differences. The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant [5]. - For bonds, real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. - In the container shipping market, the weak spot market and the expected price increase in December are in a game. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can focus on spread reversal opportunities [9][11]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - For copper, the 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - Zinc is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - Tin is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - For lithium carbonate, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. - For steel products, both rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - For LPG, the domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - For PTA - PX, the PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - For methanol, the 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - For PP, it is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - For PE, the supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September. The domestic LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined. The unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate affected the exchange rate, and the RMB may gain appreciation support later [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant due to the unclear Fed's rate - cut decision and other factors [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: Real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - **Copper**: The 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - **Tin**: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: In the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - **LPG**: The domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - **PP**: It is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - **PE**: The supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. Others - **Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: They are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate more widely in the future, with the futures price likely to "swing widely" between 82,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton this week, and short - term correction risks should be watched out for [3][5] - The lithium ore supply may be alleviated as the expected arrival of lithium concentrate this month is high, and the resumption of "Jianxiaowo" is a key variable affecting supply. The current demand is strong, but there are seasonal fluctuations in downstream production, and whether the production of energy - storage cells can make up for the decline in power cells is the focus [3] - The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November needs attention, as a significant reduction in warehouse receipts may cause market speculation and directly impact the price of lithium carbonate [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 100,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 48.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 84.1% [2] - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract is 98,980 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan (-0.32%) daily and up 11,140 yuan (12.68%) weekly. The trading volume is 1,595,646 lots, down 171,782 lots (-9.72%) daily and up 489,635 lots (44.27%) weekly. The open interest is 479,602 lots, down 23,530 lots (-4.68%) daily and down 56,912 lots (-10.61%) weekly [8] - **Spread Data**: LC2601 - LC2603 is -180 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan (-100.00%) daily and down 660 yuan (-137.50%) weekly; LC2601 - LC2605 is -1,140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (-1.72%) daily and up 900 yuan (375.00%) weekly; LC2603 - LC2605 is -960 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan (-17.24%) daily and up 240 yuan (33.33%) weekly [8] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,916 lots, up 150 lots (0.56%) daily and down 592 lots (-2.15%) weekly [8] 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt Prices**: The prices of various lithium ores and salts have increased. For example, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 88,900 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan (2.77%) daily; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 91,300 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan (2.70%) daily [24] - **Price Difference Data**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan (2.13%) weekly; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 10,720 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (9.16%) daily and up 2,550 yuan (31.21%) weekly [28] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the main lithium carbonate contract and the brand - based basis of different companies are provided. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy is -300 yuan/ton, and that of Tianqi Lithium is 0 yuan/ton [34] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 26,916 lots, an increase of 150 lots from yesterday. The warehouse receipts of Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai increased by 150 lots, while those of Shanghai State Reserve and Xiamen Jianyida (Jianfa Shanghai) decreased [36][37] 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium concentrate and lithium mica is presented, as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, with fluctuations in different time periods [38][40] 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, strategies include buying 10% of far - month futures contracts, selling 10% of LC2601 - P - 80,000, and using an option combination strategy (selling put options + buying call options) with a 20% ratio. For those with product price correlation, 60% of the main futures contracts should be sold according to the procurement progress, and a combination option strategy (buying put options + selling call options) with a 30% ratio is recommended [2] - **Sales Management**: To prevent price drops and profit reduction, enterprises should sell futures contracts when obtaining lithium ore. For example, sell 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 and use a combination option strategy (buying put options + selling call options) with a 30% ratio [2] - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory should short futures contracts according to inventory, such as selling 60% of the main futures contracts and 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. However, in the short - term, the unclear prospects of a December interest rate cut will lead to continued fluctuations and adjustments, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and dips are considered opportunities to buy. Resistance and support levels are provided for London gold and silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated slightly higher. Although NVIDIA's earnings report was slightly higher than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations declined. The VIX of US stocks and the MOVE index of US bonds both rose, and Bitcoin continued to fall, increasing the demand for precious metals and US dollars as a hedge. The market is focused on the US September non - farm payrolls report to be released on Thursday night. The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences, with many thinking it inappropriate to cut rates in December. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4078.3 per ounce (+0.29%), and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2降息预期与基金持仓 - Interest rate cut expectations have declined, with only a 30% probability of a December rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 67.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 32.8%. Long - term fund positions: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.29 tons to 1043.72 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 8.46 tons to 15226.88 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16 tons to 547.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 47.7 tons to 774.7 tons as of the week ending November 14 [2]. 3.3本周关注 - In terms of data, focus on the补发 of US government data after the restart, especially the US September non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, several Fed officials will give speeches on Friday [3]. 3.4贵金属期现价格表 - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [5]. 3.5库存持仓表 - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [13]. 3.6股债商汇总览 - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the RMB, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory as of November 7th was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5), with a daily average outbound volume of 66,300 cubic meters per day (+3,500), maintaining resilience. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased this week. The impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small. The lg2601 contract showed a weekly increase of 1.28% and remained in a low - volatility oscillation state this week, while the lg2603 contract rose 0.38% with a position of only 4,000 lots. There is an opportunity to short the 01 - 03 spread in the long - term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [1]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price declines, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 740 - 750 [1]. Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: lg2601 closed at 775.5 (-11) with a position of 17,000 lots, and lg2603 closed at 791.5 (-5) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price decreased this week. For example, the market price of 5.9 - meter medium A logs in Lanshan area was 770 (-10) [4]. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 811 yuan per cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 803 yuan per cubic meter in Shandong [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7th, the national inventory was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5) [4]. Core Contradictions - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory is increasing, and the daily average outbound volume remains resilient. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased, and the impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small [5]. Strategies - Short at high prices. - Pay attention to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity in the long - term. - Short the lg2601 - C - 800 position at high prices [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The inventory is relatively low [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products; the reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products at non - mainstream delivery warehouses; the decline in spot prices and weak market demand [9].

南华商品指数：所有版块均下跌，贵金属板块领跌 王怡琳 南华商品指数市场数据 | 用于同 的 HD 1日 300 11 200 300 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动率 | 今收盘 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | 日 啊 | Sharpe | 指数名称 | Today Close | Pre. Close | 96 | ARR | An. Vol | Batio | Points | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合指数 NHCl | 2528.48 | 2541.86 | -13.38 | -0.53% | -2.02% | 11.60% | -0.17 | 贵金属指数 NHPMI | 1523. ...

南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 生猪价格区间预测 | 主力合约价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 11000-13500 | 12.64% | 21.34% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 生猪企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | | 库存管 理 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存有减值风险 | 为防止存栏减值，可以根据存栏情况，做空生猪期货来锁定成品利润 | LH2601 | 卖出 | 10% | | | | 担心库存减值，但期货盘面没有合适价位入场，卖出看涨期权 | LH2601-C-1300 | 卖出 | 10% | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 担心库存减值，又不想放弃后市可能出现猪价大涨的机会，买入虚值 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand on the demand side is strong, with prices of core battery materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate rising. However, there may be a seasonal decline in downstream power cell production near December, and whether energy - storage cell production can offset this decline is a key factor. Overall, the subsequent price volatility of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the lithium carbonate futures price this week is predicted to show a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, with short - term correction risks [3][5]. - On the supply side, the arrival of more lithium concentrate at ports this month can ease the tight supply of lithium ore, and the release of salt - lake production capacity will continuously supplement the lithium salt market. The resumption speed of "Jianxiaowo" is a crucial variable. If its resumption exceeds market expectations, it will expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices [3]. - The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November needs attention. A significant reduction in warehouse receipts may lead to speculation in the market, directly affecting lithium carbonate prices [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Forecast and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 100,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 45.5% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 78.9%. It is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price this week will be in the range of 82,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, showing a "widely fluctuating and weakly downward" trend [2][5]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 93,520 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1,680 yuan (-1.76%) and a weekly increase of 6,980 yuan (8.07%). The trading volume is 1,487,724 lots (an 8.84% daily increase and a 64.85% weekly increase), and the open interest is 484,357 lots (a 13.96% daily decrease and an 8.00% weekly decrease). Other contract spreads and warehouse receipt data also show corresponding changes [8]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices**: Prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone have increased to varying degrees, with daily increases ranging from 0.60% to 6.13%. Lithium salt prices, including industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, have also risen, with daily increases between 1.04% and 1.49% [23]. - **Cell Material Prices**: Prices of core cell materials like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate have increased, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rising by 2.48% daily [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract shows certain fluctuations. The average basis quotes of different brands for the LC2601 contract range from -1,600 to 0 yuan [33][34]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,953 lots, a decrease of 217 lots from the previous day. Warehouse receipts at different warehouses also show corresponding changes [36]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate shows a certain trend, and the import profit of lithium carbonate also has corresponding changes over time [38]. - **Theoretical Delivery Profit**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate fluctuates within a certain range over time [40]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies for Lithium - Battery Enterprises - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, when worried about rising procurement costs, they can buy 10% of far - month futures contracts, sell 10% of LC2601 - P - 80,000, and use an option combination strategy (sell put options + buy call options) at a 20% ratio. For enterprises with correlated product prices, they can sell 60% of the main futures contracts according to the procurement progress and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - **Sales Management**: Enterprises worried about falling sales profits can sell 60% of corresponding futures contracts and use a combination option strategy (buy put options + sell call options) at a 30% ratio [2]. - **Inventory Management**: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory can sell 60% of the main futures contracts and 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 to lock in inventory value [2].

期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 17 日 延续分化 本周主要观点： 商品近期的行情特征，大部分的品种都不具有趋势延续性， 可能会有几个局部品种走出趋势，但是，主流板块（黑色、能 化、农产品等）依然处于震荡格局。面对这种局面，可以考虑用 期权工具或者期货套利策略，避免用单边趋势策略（胜率偏 低）。本身市场波动率就不高，期权可以考虑卖出近月深度虚值 期权，以赚取时间价值。可以关注：一是持续背离结构的品种； 二是下跌增仓放量且抗跌的品种。近期面临移仓，跨月反套策略 要谨慎。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、移仓换月变化； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 延续分化 期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 17 日 周行情观点综述 本周商品市场整体呈现震荡格局，K线基本上是阴线和 ...