消息面上，1月19日，南华期货股份获纳入港股通。分析人士认为，公司获纳入港股通有望显著提升其 交易流动性。此外，目前南华期货H股较A股有明显折价，或将吸引大量内地投资者出手，南华期货的 AH股股价联动将更紧密，其H股或将迎来价值重估。 南华期货（603093）股份(02691)早盘涨超11%，截至发稿，涨8.88%，报11.4港元，成交额3765.33万港 元。 值得注意的是，南华期货近期表示，公司境内外经纪业务涉及黄金、白银等期货品种。招股书显示，南 华期货计划将H股上市的全球发售所得额净额全部分配给开展境外业务的横华国际，以增强中国香港、 英国、美国及新加坡境外附属公司的资本基础，扩大公司的境外业务，优化境外业务结构，并增强南华 期货在全球市场的竞争力和风险承受能力。 ...

值得注意的是，南华期货近期表示，公司境内外经纪业务涉及黄金、白银等期货品种。招股书显示，南 华期货计划将H股上市的全球发售所得额净额全部分配给开展境外业务的横华国际，以增强中国香港、 英国、美国及新加坡境外附属公司的资本基础，扩大公司的境外业务，优化境外业务结构，并增强南华 期货在全球市场的竞争力和风险承受能力。 智通财经APP获悉，南华期货股份(02691)早盘涨超11%，截至发稿，涨8.88%，报11.4港元，成交额 3765.33万港元。 消息面上，1月19日，南华期货股份获纳入港股通。分析人士认为，公司获纳入港股通有望显著提升其 交易流动性。此外，目前南华期货H股较A股有明显折价，或将吸引大量内地投资者出手，南华期货的 AH股股价联动将更紧密，其H股或将迎来价值重估。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. has appointed Lian Sheng as the assistant general manager (executive level), effective from January 19, 2026, marking the completion of the company's executive team adjustments and further enhancing its governance structure and management system [1][10]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Lian Sheng's appointment has been approved by the first meeting of the third board of directors of Nanhua Fund and will be filed with regulatory authorities as required [1][10]. - Lian Sheng has 26 years of experience in the financial industry, holding a fund practitioner qualification and a college degree, which qualifies him for the role [3][12]. Group 2: Professional Background - Lian Sheng began his career in September 2000 at the fund custody department of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, gaining foundational knowledge in fund custody and compliance [4][13]. - He worked at Shenwan Hongyuan Fund Management Co., Ltd. from September 2005 to October 2006, and then at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management from October 2006 to December 2016, accumulating extensive experience in fund management operations and research systems [4][13]. - Lian Sheng joined Nanhua Fund in December 2016 and has a deep understanding of the company's operational system, development strategy, and industry trends, enabling him to adapt quickly to his new role [4][13]. Group 3: Company Background - Nanhua Fund was established on November 17, 2016, with a registered capital of 350 million RMB, making it the first "futures-based" public fund management company in China [5][14]. - As of the end of Q4 2025, Nanhua Fund's asset scale reached 21.74 billion RMB, ranking 110th out of 164 in the industry, indicating a need for accelerated growth in the competitive asset management landscape [5][14][15]. - The company aims to leverage its unique "futures-based" characteristics to innovate product offerings and meet diverse investor needs, despite challenges in brand reputation and research capabilities compared to traditional financial institutions [5][14][15].

Core Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of integrating into national technological innovation and serving the real economy, advocating for a modern governance system based on "thought, thinking, and systems" [2][9] - The company aims for high-end, intelligent, integrated, and deeply internationalized development in its futures business, encouraging employees to face challenges with determination [2][9] Group 1: Strategic Development - The 2025 annual meeting focused on high-quality development, summarizing the company's management and operational achievements [3][7] - The company aims to align with national strategies and enhance core competitiveness while serving the real economy [7][11] Group 2: Compliance and Risk Management - The chairman highlighted the ongoing strict regulatory environment, urging the company to prioritize compliance as a lifeline for development [5][11] - The company is committed to proactive risk management and adjusting its operational model to ensure sustainable growth [5][11] Group 3: Operational Achievements - The general manager reviewed the company's performance amidst market volatility, emphasizing compliance and customer-centric risk management tools [7][11] - The company successfully completed a Hong Kong IPO, establishing an "A+H" dual capital platform to support its professional and international transformation [7][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the meteorological conditions in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, and points out the current growth status, sowing progress, and potential impacts of weather on yields in these regions, also lists the annual key points of international soybeans [1][2][53] Summary According to Related Contents 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas - **Overall Situation**: Brazil's soybeans are generally in the middle growth stage, with some areas entering the final stage. The national emergence rate is 6.2%, the vegetative growth period is 24.6%, the flowering period is 48.7%, the pod - filling period is 19.6%, and the harvesting progress is 1.39%, higher than the same period last year and the historical average [1][14] - **Regional Conditions** - **Mato Grosso**: The harvesting progress is close to 5%, and it is expected to accelerate by the end of January, affected by rainfall and crop maturity [1][14] - **Mato Grosso do Sul**: Soil moisture is good, the pest and disease incidence is low, and over 85.7% of the soybean fields are rated as "good" [1][14] - **Goias**: Some irrigated areas have entered the maturity stage, and the rest benefit from regular rainfall [1][14] - **Minas Gerais**: The crop condition is good, and harvesting will start in the last ten days of January [1][15] - **Parana**: Decreased rainfall and high - temperature weather have accelerated the maturity of plots nearing the end of the cycle, and sporadic harvesting has begun in the western part [1][15] - **Rio Grande do Sul**: State - wide rainfall is beneficial to crop growth, and the first - sown crops have entered the pod - filling stage [1][15] 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas - **Sowing Progress**: The sowing progress increased by 5.6% week - on - week to 93.9%, about 5% behind the previous year [2][35] - **Crop Conditions**: 96% of the sown crops are in good condition or above (a 4% decline from the previous period), and 73% of the water conditions are suitable or above (a 12% decline from the previous period) [2][35] - **Potential Risks**: The northeastern region and the north - central part of Santa Fe are affected by excessive water, delaying sowing. In Buenos Aires, the soil surface is showing water deficiency. If there is no effective rainfall in the next 2 - 3 weeks, the potential yield per unit may be reduced [2][35] 3. International Soybean Annual Key Points - **January**: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [53] - **February**: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [53] - **March**: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [53] - **April**: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [53] - **May**: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [53] - **June**: U.S. yield per unit and Brazilian exports [53] - **July - September**: U.S. yield per unit [53] - **October**: U.S. yield per unit, production, and South American planting area [53] - **November**: U.S. production and South American planting area [53] - **December**: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [53] 4. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - centimeter soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Risks include floods and extreme drought [61] - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Risks include floods, droughts, and continuous rain [61] - **Growth Period**: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [61] - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Risks include continuous rainfall and storms [61]

Group 1 - The company, Nanhua Futures, engages in domestic and international brokerage services, as well as over-the-counter derivatives business related to commodities such as gold and silver futures [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, there have been signs of adjustment in non-ferrous varieties, with selling pressure emerging at higher levels. The strong upward trend in non-ferrous metals and precious metals is essentially driven by the new economic logic, specifically the demand logic of related commodities driven by the new energy and AI economies. However, their valuations are slightly high. The anti-involution logic of low-valuation varieties is gradually advancing. The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to 150,000 tons, approaching the low limit in 2015. The national policy is determined to rectify involution-style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that anti-involution may play a role in the theme market in 2026 [2][5] - The hot spots in the commodity market in the past week still revolved around non-ferrous and precious metal varieties. As prices rose, risks also accumulated, and exchanges at home and abroad introduced corresponding measures to control risks. After the decline of the non-ferrous hot spots, the anti-involution theme may be able to take over [4] Summary by Directory Market Overview - The hot spots in the commodity market in the past week centered on non-ferrous and precious metal varieties. As prices increased, the risks also grew, and exchanges at home and abroad took steps to manage risks. The market's hot money may look for the next theme market [4] Variety Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Gold coins have been falling continuously in recent months, breaking below the 50 mark, and gold has shown continuous stagnant growth, so adjustments need to be watched out for [4] - **Agricultural Products**: It is rumored that the initial agreement on Sino-Canadian trade was reached on Friday, and the tariff on rapeseed may be lowered. The market has already priced in this expectation, causing rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal to open significantly lower on Friday night. The global soybean supply and demand pattern remains weak, but the support around 1000 for US soybeans is still effective [4] - **Chemical Industry**: In 2026, the chemical industry will generally operate within the anti-involution framework. The national policy emphasizes the supply and demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and the valuation of chemical products is at the limit [4] - **Black Sector**: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downward space for coal is also limited, and the supply guarantee market is coming to an end [4] Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital was 8.809 billion. The precious metal sector had 9.738 billion, a decrease of 1.862 billion in the non-ferrous sector, an increase of 1.281 billion in the black sector, a decrease of 189 million in the energy sector, a decrease of 213 million in the chemical industry, an increase of 281 million in the feed breeding sector, an increase of 1.308 billion in the oil and fat sector, and a decrease of 587 million in the soft commodity sector [9] - **Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data**: It includes the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non-ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and gold [9] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various energy and chemical varieties such as fuel oil, low-sulfur oil, and asphalt [11] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12] Graphs - There are graphs showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, oil and fat varieties, energy varieties, agricultural and sideline varieties, and non-ferrous plate varieties [13][15][18]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. (2691.HK) has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect as of January 19, 2026, which is expected to unlock a direct inflow channel for mainland funds, potentially increasing attention and allocation from southbound capital and passive funds like index funds, thereby broadening the investor base and attracting incremental mainland capital [1] Company Overview - Nanhua Futures is a leading comprehensive futures company in China, established in 1996 and headquartered in Hangzhou, with services including domestic futures brokerage, risk management, wealth management, and overseas financial services [1] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2019 and officially debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 22, 2025, achieving a dual listing that marks a significant step in its internationalization strategy and business innovation [1] Market Implications - The inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is anticipated to significantly enhance short-term liquidity and may lead to a medium to long-term revaluation of the company's stock [1] - The company's leading position in the industry and its internationalization potential are expected to attract renewed valuation from the capital markets [1]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced an adjustment to the list of Hong Kong Stock Connect eligible securities due to the end of the price stabilization period for Nanhua Futures (603093) shares in the Hong Kong market [1] - The adjustment will take effect from January 19, 2026, following the relevant regulations of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's implementation measures for the Hong Kong Stock Connect business [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of finished steel products are neutral, lacking driving forces, and are in a range - bound state. The current core contradiction lies in the furnace charge end. In the short term, finished steel products are supported by the cost end, with limited downside space but lacking upward driving forces. Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The price range of the main rebar contract 2605 may be between 3050 - 3200, and that of the main hot - rolled coil contract 2605 may be between 3200 - 3350 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Rebar production recovery has slowed down marginally, apparent consumption has rebounded unexpectedly, and inventory has turned to destocking, but the change is small. In the future, inventory may enter a restocking trend again. Overall, rebar inventory is at a low level and is in a destocking trend compared to the same period seasonally. - The destocking speed of hot - rolled coils has accelerated marginally. Although the inventory base is large compared to the same period, it is in a destocking state seasonally. However, the recent increase in hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is significant, with a 58% week - on - week increase [1]. - For iron ore, steel mills' inventory is low, with restocking expectations supporting prices. But the decline in molten iron production and the continuous restocking of port inventory make it difficult for prices to rise significantly. - For coking coal, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port is at a relatively high level in recent years, and port inventory is increasing. The recovery of mine开工率 and the accumulation of mine coking coal inventory will suppress prices. Although winter storage supports prices, the large inventory base limits the upside space [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The driving force for steel production cuts is weakening, and the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased month - on - month, but demand is weak in the off - season. - The coil and plate segment is still in a high - inventory situation, with the highest inventory level in the past five years, and the destocking pressure is high. - The low inventory of steel mills' iron ore at ports supports iron ore prices, while the restocking of port iron ore inventory may affect the price of finished steel products. - Winter storage supports the price of furnace charge [1][5]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The 05 - contract price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.13% and a volatility percentile of 14.3%; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 9.84% and a volatility percentile of 5.83% [7]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [7]. 3.2 Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - **Positive Information**: Winter storage supports the price of furnace charge; the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have rebounded; the low inventory of steel mills at ports supports iron ore prices; the destocking speed of hot - rolled coils has improved marginally [14]. - **Negative Information**: The driving force for steel production cuts is weakening, and production has increased month - on - month; the restocking of port iron ore inventory may affect the price of finished steel products; the coil and plate segment is still in a high - inventory situation, and there is no driving force on the consumption side; export controls have taken effect [15]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Important Events - Next Monday, China will announce the GDP growth rate for 2025. - Next Thursday, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Basis**: Analyzed the basis seasonality of rebar and hot - rolled coil 05 contracts in Shanghai [16][17]. - **Coil - to - Rebar Spread**: Analyzed the seasonal changes in the spot coil - to - rebar spread in Shanghai and Beijing, as well as the seasonal changes in 01, 05, and 10 coil - to - rebar spreads [18][19][20]. - **Term Structure**: Analyzed the term structure spread diagrams of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore futures, and coking coal [24][25][26]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Structure**: Analyzed the seasonal changes in the month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures (01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01) [27][28][29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have improved marginally, and the motivation for the five major steel products to cut production may gradually weaken [31]. 3.4.2 Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the seasonal changes in hot - rolled coil export profit estimates, the relationship between hot - rolled coil export profit and export volume, and the relationship between the difference between overseas and Chinese hot - rolled coils and steel export orders [46][48][49]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - As of January 16, 2026, the cumulative consumption and production of the five major steel products have decreased year - on - year, and the current inventory has also decreased compared to the beginning of the year [65]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Analyzed the relationship between steel production, profits, and inventory, as well as the impact of blast furnace and electric furnace production and maintenance on supply [66][70][71]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Analyzed the predicted seasonality of the apparent demand for crude steel, the consumption of the five major steel products, and the inventory and sales ratio of various steel products [82][91][101].