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南华期货钢材产业周报:利润改善,交易宏观预期,震荡偏强-20251130
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 13:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall steel products are supported by raw material costs, with profits gradually improving. The market may pre - trade policy expectations, and steel prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coils may be between 3200 - 3500 [2][9]. - The supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, but the risk of negative feedback is increasing as the profitability rate of steel enterprises has fallen to 35.06% [2]. - The port inventory of iron ore has resumed its accumulation trend, and its high valuation limits the upside space [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market sentiment**: Overseas macro - sentiment has warmed up, and the probability of interest rate cuts has increased. Domestically, the market anticipates targeted policies in stabilizing the real estate and fiscal areas in December, boosting the bullish sentiment in the steel market [1]. - **Supply - demand situation**: The production of the five major steel products increased slightly week - on - week, while consumption decreased slightly. The inventory is slowly being depleted, and the supply - demand balance is marginally improving. However, hot - rolled coils are in a situation of high inventory and high production, and destocking may rely on production cuts. Plate exports remain high, but domestic demand is weakening [2]. - **Profitability and cost**: The profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, but the profitability rate of steel enterprises has continued to decline. The price of iron ore has been strong recently, but with the increase in arrivals, the port inventory has resumed its accumulation trend, and its valuation is relatively high [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Oscillating and strengthening. - **Range reference**: The operating range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coils is between 3200 - 3500. - **Spread strategies**: The long - spread strategy for steel products has a high profit - loss ratio, and the strategy of narrowing the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is recommended [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The 01 - contract monthly price range for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.95% and a volatility percentile of 9.1%. For hot - rolled coils, the range is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 7.90% and a volatility percentile of 0.70% [12]. - **Risk management strategies**: Enterprises with high finished - product inventories can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits. Those with low procurement inventories can buy futures to lock in procurement costs. Additionally, selling call options or put options can be used to reduce costs [12]. 3.2 Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - **Positive factors**: The price of iron ore is relatively strong, the supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, the price of coking coal has declined, and the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are gradually improving [19]. - **Negative factors**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is gradually weakening, the steel market is under - performing during the peak season, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has declined significantly, the port inventory of iron ore may resume its accumulation trend, and the hot - rolled coil segment is in a situation of high inventory and high production [20]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Important Events to Monitor - Next Monday: Release of the final November ISM manufacturing PMI and November S&P Global manufacturing PMI in the United States. - Next Wednesday: Release of the November ADP employment figures in the United States [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Basis**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows certain seasonal characteristics. - **Coil - rebar spread**: The spot coil - rebar spread continues to narrow, and the driving force for the futures coil - rebar spread to widen is weakening, with a possible narrowing trend [27]. - **Term structure**: The term structure of rebar remains in a deep Contango (C) structure, while the near - end term structure of hot - rolled coils may revert from the C structure to the previous B structure [33]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, and the long - spread strategy has a high profit - loss ratio [11]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, which may weaken the motivation for the five major steel products to cut production [46]. - The profit ratios of different steel products, such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore and the ratio of rebar to coke, show certain seasonal characteristics [54]. 3.4.2 Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of hot - rolled coils shows seasonal fluctuations and is related to export volume. The difference between overseas and Chinese hot - rolled coil prices also affects export orders [64]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The production and consumption of the five major steel products have changed week - on - week. Rebar production decreased by 1.88, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3, and the inventory of various steel products has also changed accordingly [90]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The estimated amount of molten iron and scrap steel shows seasonal characteristics, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises is related to the daily output of molten iron [98]. - The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils is affected by factors such as maintenance and profit, and the planned production of rebar and hot - rolled coils also shows certain trends [101]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The consumption of different steel products, such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and cold - rolled coils, shows seasonal characteristics, and the inventory - to - sales ratios of various steel products also vary [113].
南华期货锌产业周报:宏观暖风频吹,矿端紧缺兑现-20251130
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-30 13:18
南华期货锌产业周报 ——宏观暖风频吹,矿端紧缺兑现 傅小燕 (投资咨询证号:Z0002675) 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌价处于筑底阶段,当前锌市正处于"宏观预期托底,产业供需错配"的关键窗口期。宏观层面, 美联储12月降息预期显著升温,美元指数回落,市场风险偏好提升(Risk-on),为有色板块提供了较强的金 融属性支撑。供给端矛盾已激化至临界点:加工费(TC)的持续崩塌是当前最核心的驱动力,SMM国产TC 已跌至2050元/金属吨的极低水平,冶炼厂陷入深度亏损(约-2000元/吨),导致检修减产规模扩大,12月 产量预期下滑,供应收缩逻辑正在从"预期"走向"现实"。需求端则呈现明显的季节性回落特征,镀锌开 工率下滑至56.54%,北方进入淡季,终端除了出口数据尚可外,地产与基建表现平淡,对锌价上方空间形成 压制。库存端出现典型的"内去外累"分化,LME库存虽增至5万吨以上,但国内社库受供给减量影响持续去 化,七地库存降至14.81万吨。综上所述,尽管消费端缺乏亮点,但矿端紧缺引发的供应缩量已成为主导逻 辑, ...
南华期货股份有限公司第五届董事会第四次会议决议公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-11-28 20:06
证券代码:603093 证券简称:南华期货 公告编号:2025-068 南华期货股份有限公司 第五届董事会第四次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")第五届董事会第四次会议于2025年11月28日以现场和通讯相 结合的方式召开,本次会议的通知于2025年11月24日以电话、电子邮件等方式向全体董事发出,由董事 长罗旭峰先生主持。本次会议应出席董事9人,实际出席董事9人。公司董事会秘书出席本次会议。公司 高级管理人员列席会议。 本次会议的召集、召开及表决程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等法律、行政法规和部门规章以及 《公司章程》的规定,会议决议合法有效。 一、审议通过《关于确定H股全球发售(香港公开发售及国际发售)及在香港联合交易所有限公司上市 相关事宜之议案》 董事会同意公司H股全球发售及在香港联合交易所有限公司上市的相关安排,包括但不限于:(1)批 准公司H股全球发售的相关安排;(2)批准刊发、签署符合相关法律法规要求的招股说明书及其他全 ...
南华期货开展暖心行动 寒冬慰问彰显企业担当
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-11-28 14:48
Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures actively engages in social responsibility initiatives, particularly focusing on rural support and community welfare, demonstrating its commitment to societal well-being through various programs and projects [1][2] Group 1: Community Support Initiatives - Nanhua Futures organized a charity event in Yungangkou Village, delivering essential supplies such as rice and cooking oil to 193 elderly residents aged over 70, addressing immediate needs during a cold wave [1] - The company has integrated social responsibility into its corporate DNA, recognizing the high proportion of elderly individuals living alone in the village due to young laborers migrating for work [1] - The charity event not only provided material assistance but also offered emotional support to the elderly, showcasing the company's genuine care [1] Group 2: Long-term Commitment to Rural Development - Nanhua Futures has established the Hangzhou Ganlin Education Foundation to tackle the issue of inadequate educational resources in rural areas, supporting impoverished students and improving teaching facilities [2] - The company initiated the Financial Harbor Charity Fund to align with common prosperity goals, focusing on industrial assistance and improving livelihoods, thereby contributing to high-quality rural economic development [2] - Nanhua Futures has implemented the "Insurance + Futures" model to support agriculture, covering 552 projects across 27 provinces from 2016 to mid-2025, benefiting approximately 459,550 farming households [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The company plans to continue its focus on rural development through various forms of public welfare activities, adhering to the philosophy of "benevolent business practices" while enhancing its service to the real economy [2] - Nanhua Futures aims to foster a respectful and caring social atmosphere for the elderly, contributing further to community welfare initiatives [2]
南华期货能化早报-20251128
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 12:03
Group 1: Report Core Information - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 49.88 points, a 1.99% increase, with silver and crude oil being the most influential varieties. Silver had an 8.96% change in the variety index and a 0.54% contribution, while crude oil had a 1.47% change and a 0.24% contribution [1][2] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose 43.04 points, a 1.25% increase, with crude oil and copper being the most influential. Crude oil had a 0.26% contribution, and copper had a 0.17% contribution [1][2] - The Nanhua Metal Index rose 95.33 points, a 1.49% increase, with copper being the most influential, contributing 0.34% [1][2] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose 16.88 points, a 1.1% increase, with crude oil being the most influential, contributing 0.37% [2] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose 11.38 points, a 1.09% increase, with corn being the most influential, contributing 0.23% [2] Group 2: Weekly Data Overview - The weekly closing, last - week closing, change points, change rates, maximum, minimum, and amplitude of various Nanhua commodity indices are presented in Table 1, including the Composite Index, Precious Metals Index, Industrial Products Index, etc [3] Group 3: Arbitrage Data - The Nanhua commodity index comparison data for different plate combinations such as precious metals index/composite index, industrial products index/composite index are provided in Table 2, including present value, previous value, change, and ranking [9] Group 4: Sector Index Weekly Data - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, the top 6 contributing varieties are listed, including crude oil, copper, methanol, etc., along with their closing prices, change rates, and contributions [13] - For the Nanhua Metal Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including copper, iron ore, etc., with relevant closing prices, change rates, and contributions [13] - For the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including crude oil, methanol, and glass, with corresponding closing prices, change rates, and contributions [13] - For the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including corn, cotton, and soybean meal, with relevant closing prices, change rates, and contributions [13] - For the Nanhua Black Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including rebar, iron ore, and stainless steel, with corresponding closing prices, change rates, and contributions [14] - For the Nanhua Non - ferrous Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including copper, etc., with relevant closing prices, change rates, and contributions [16] Group 5: Position and Contribution Data - The table shows the weekly average position, month - on - month increase, position ratio, and contribution of each futures variety to the index change rate, including soybean meal, eggs, silver, etc [18]
南华期货联合香港子公司横华国际就香港火灾捐款100万港元
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-11-28 11:55
11月26日下午,香港大埔宏福苑发生五级火灾,灾情严峻,造成重大人员伤亡及财产损失,牵动了全国 人民的心。对此,南华期货股份有限公司全体人员深感痛心与关切,决定捐款100万港币,支援香港火 灾救援及受灾群众的紧急安置及生活援助。 火灾无情,人间有爱。南华期货作为国内知名的金融机构,始终秉持"取诸社会,用诸社会"的企业精 神,积极履行社会责任。横华国际作为南华期货全资香港子公司,深耕本地市场,与香港社区紧密相 连。此次联合捐款,既是两地金融同仁对受灾同胞的深切牵挂,更是内地与香港守望相助、共克时艰的 生动体现,我们希望以绵薄之力,为受灾家庭撑起 "保护伞",帮助他们渡过当下的艰难时刻。 除资金援助外,南华期货与横华国际将密切关注灾情后续动态,并视需要动员公司志愿者资源,为有需 要的居民提供力所能及的帮助。同时,我们呼吁社会各界爱心人士与机构,能一同伸出援手,汇聚更多 力量,帮助宏福苑的居民们早日重建家园,恢复正常生活。 最后我们谨对不幸遇难者表示深切哀悼,愿逝去的灵魂早日安息,伤痛早日抚平,愿生活重归安宁。 (文章来源:国际金融报) ...
南华期货董事会审议通过H股全球发售及上市方案 拟推进香港联交所挂牌
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-28 11:25
来源:新浪财经-鹰眼工作室 南华期货股份有限公司(证券代码:603093,下称"公司")于2025年11月28日召开第五届董事会第四次 会议,审议通过H股全球发售及在香港联合交易所有限公司(下称"香港联交所")上市的核心议案,同 时批准修订H股发行上市后适用的《公司章程(草案)》,为登陆港股市场铺平道路。 会议召开概况 本次董事会以现场结合通讯方式召开,会议通知于11月24日通过电话、电子邮件等方式送达全体董事, 由董事长罗旭峰主持。公司9名董事全部出席会议,董事会秘书及高级管理人员列席。会议召集、召开 及表决程序符合《公司法》及《公司章程》规定,决议合法有效。 核心议案审议结果 H股全球发售及上市方案获通过 公司章程修订适配港股上市要求 为满足H股发行上市后合规运营需求,董事会审议通过《关于修订公司于H股发行上市后适用的〈公司 章程(草案)〉的议案》,根据境内外监管机构要求及发行上市实际情况,对公司章程进行适应性修订。 修订内容详见公司同日在上海证券交易所网站披露的《关于修订公司于H股发行上市后适用的<公司章 程(草案)>的公告》(公告编号:2025-069)。 该议案基于2025年第二次临时股东大会授权, ...
第七届新浪财经金麒麟最具荣耀研究机构:第一名申万宏源证券 第二名长江证券(荣誉榜)
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-11-28 10:08
专题:2025分析师大会:资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 11月28日,2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。逾300名权威学 者、公私募掌舵人、上市公司董事长、顶级基金经理、首席分析师齐聚上海,共同探讨中国资本市场的 未来机遇。同时,第七届新浪财经金麒麟优秀研究机构评选结果隆重揭晓。 第一名 申万宏源证券 第二名 长江证券 第三名 国泰海通证券 第四名 天风证券 第五名 广发证券 第六名 国信证券 第七名 兴业证券 第八名 中信建投证券 第九名 浙商证券 第十名 国联民生证券 责任编辑:凌辰 第七届新浪财经金麒麟最具荣耀研究机构荣誉榜如下: ...
南华期货(603093) - 南华期货股份有限公司章程(草案)
2025-11-28 09:46
南华期货股份有限公司 章 程 | | | | 第一章 | 总 则 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 经营宗旨和范围 2 | | | 第三章 | 股份 2 | | | 第一节 | 股份发行 2 | | | 第二节 | 股份增减和回购 | 4 | | 第三节 | 股份转让 5 | | | 第四章 | 股东和股东会 6 | | | 第一节 | 股东的一般规定 | 6 | | 第二节 | 控股股东和实际控制人 | 10 | | 第三节 | 股东会的一般规定 11 | | | 第四节 | 股东会的召集 | 13 | | 第五节 | 股东会的提案与通知 | 14 | | 第六节 | 股东会的召开 | 16 | | 第七节 | 股东会的表决和决议 | 19 | | 第五章 | 董事和董事会 23 | | | 第一节 | 董事的一般规定 | 23 | | 第二节 | 董事会 27 | | | 第三节 | 独立董事 31 | | | 第四节 | 董事会专门委员会 | 33 | | 第六章 | 高级管理人员 35 | | | 第一节 | 一般规定 35 | | | 第二节 | 首席风险官 37 ...
南华期货(603093) - 南华期货股份有限公司关于修订公司于H股发行上市后适用的《公司章程(草案)》的公告
2025-11-28 09:45
本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025 年 7 月 14 日,南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")召开了 2025 年第二次临时股东大会,审议并通过了《关于修订公司于 H 股发行上市后适用的 <公司章程(草案)>及相关议事规则(草案)的议案》。该次股东大会授权董事 会及其授权人士,为本次发行上市之目的,根据境内外有关政府部门和监管机构 的要求与建议以及本次发行上市的实际情况等,对《南华期货股份有限公司章程 (草案)》(以下称"《公司章程(草案)》")进行调整和修改。 2025 年 11 月 28 日,公司召开了第五届董事会第四次会议,根据上述股东 大会的授权,审议通过了根据香港中央结算有限公司的修改意见修订的《公司章 程(草案)》。具体条款修订情况如下: | 修订前 | 修订后 | | --- | --- | | 第二十七条 公司的股份应当依法转让。 | 第二十七条 公司的股份应当依法转让。所 | | | 有 H 股的转让皆应采用一般或普通格式或 | | | 任何其他为董事会接受的格式的书面转让 | | ...