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烧碱产业风险管理日报-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:59
寿佳露(投资咨询证号:Z0020569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2500-2900 | 22.00% | 39.1% | 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 source: 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高,担心烧碱价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失,可以根据企业的库存情况,做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润,弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 2800-285 0 | | | | 多 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本,若烧碱上 ...
南华期货假期效应显现
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Near the holiday, there are signs of capital withdrawal, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the two markets today. Technology concepts led the decline, while the dividend index rose. To cope with holiday uncertainties in the short term, risk aversion has increased. Although the stock market fluctuated frequently this week, as previously mentioned, the central point did not change much, showing a pre - holiday stable transition and wide - range shock market. There are only two trading days next week. If there are no unexpected factors, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Domestic PMI data will be released, and attention should be paid to its changes. If capital flow intensifies before the holiday, it may increase the stock market's amplitude. It is recommended to gradually lighten the position and buy the straddle option strategy next week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined overall today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.95%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 224.05 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will launch a RMB business capital arrangement from October 9 this year, replacing the existing RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement, and implementing multiple optimization measures and expanding eligible capital uses. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)". - Trump announced that starting from October 1, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [3]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.04 | -0.47 | -1.47 | -1.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1085 | 4.8226 | 13.6035 | 24.299 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -1.2397 | -0.3587 | 0.637 | 3.0154 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.9924 | 9.5988 | 25.2224 | 36.4864 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.6449 | 0.1041 | 0.3365 | 1.1537 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.76 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.53 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21468.85 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | -2242.05 | [6]
南华原油风险管理日报-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 09:51
南华原油风险管理日报 2025年9月26日 杨歆悦(投资咨询证号:Z0022518) 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 隔夜原油延续反弹态势,不仅突破前期高点,还打破了此前的震荡收敛格局,但整体仍处于横盘震荡大框 架内。此次反弹主要受俄乌地缘风险推动,乌克兰频繁袭击俄罗斯石油设施,包括新罗西斯克港这一俄最 大原油出口港,引发市场对俄石油供应下滑的担忧,叠加多头情绪偏强且小幅增仓,共同支撑油价走高。 值得注意的是,按此前地缘驱动节奏,当前原油反弹的时间与空间已基本到位,需警惕油价重复"反弹后 回落"走势、重回震荡区间。若无重大地缘事件,原油上方空间有限,大趋势仍为弱势,中长期或维持弱 势横盘或呈向下趋势,短期多空天平变化还需盘面及供应数据进一步验证。 美国原油周度出口量季节性 source: 同花顺,南华研究 万桶/天 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 09/01 200 400 美国馏分燃料油当周库存环比/MA4季节性 source: 同花顺,南华研究 千桶 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 ...
为国内期货公司“出海”提供有益借鉴
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-25 23:40
南华期货赴港上市 近日,南华期货获得中国证监会赴港上市备案通知书,拟发行不超过1.24亿H股在香港联交所(下称港 交所)主板上市。作为A股首家上市期货公司,南华期货此次迈向"A+H"双平台上市,不仅是企业自身 发展的里程碑,更是中国期货行业加速国际化布局的缩影。这一举措不仅对南华期货发展产生深远影 响,同时也折射出国内期货公司不断壮大背后的多重驱动力。 提升国际形象: 从"内卷"到"外拓"的必然选择 南华期货赴港上市反映了国内期货行业的发展趋势。目前,境内期货经纪业务同质化竞争激烈,利润空 间收窄,头部期货公司纷纷通过海外布局寻找新增量。中期协数据显示,截至2025年6月,国内期货公 司已在全球设立67家境外子公司,业务覆盖期货、证券、资管等领域。海外业务不仅缓解了国内期货行 业的"内卷式"竞争,还成为期货公司业绩增长的新引擎。 从"本土先行者"到"全球玩家" 南华期货的国际化布局并非一朝一夕之功。公司成立于1996年,根植浙江近30年,得益于浙江深厚的商 业传统和浙商"重视商业、敢于冒险"的精神。早在2006年,作为CEPA3框架下第一批"走出去"的内资期 货公司,南华期货就在香港设立了第一家境外子公司,迈 ...
南华期货股份有限公司2025年“金融教育宣传周”活动总结
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-25 08:52
Group 1 - The core message of the article emphasizes the importance of financial education and consumer rights protection, as demonstrated by the company's active participation in the 2025 Financial Education Promotion Week [1] - The company has set up a dedicated team to promote financial knowledge through various channels, achieving a reach of over 1.39 million people through online and offline efforts [1][9] - The company has developed innovative educational products, such as the "Future is Promising" crossbody bag and "Accumulating Wealth" pencil case, to make financial concepts more accessible and engaging for investors, particularly students [8][12] Group 2 - The company collaborated with local authorities and media to create a unique educational experience for students, including a special "First Class" event at Zhejiang University of Technology, aimed at enhancing financial safety awareness [15][17] - A series of immersive educational activities were conducted at the company's investor education base, allowing students to experience the futures market and understand its operational processes [18][19] - The company also engaged with multiple universities, including Harbin Financial College and Jilin University, to promote financial literacy and risk management skills among students [23][25][26] Group 3 - The company aims to enhance the effectiveness of its financial education initiatives by continuously improving the appeal and impact of its activities, thereby fostering a fair financial environment [27] - The ongoing commitment to financial knowledge dissemination is seen as a long-term effort to protect investors' rights and contribute to a healthy financial market [27]
南华金属日报:高位震荡,轻仓过节-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 06:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions during the holiday [2][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices were in a high - level volatile adjustment. As the National Day holiday in China approaches and precious metals have risen significantly previously, it is recommended to reduce long positions. During the holiday, important US non - farm and ISM PMI data will be released. The US dollar index and 10Y US Treasury yields rose, Bitcoin rebounded, the US stock market fell, and crude oil continued to rise. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3768.5 per ounce, down 1.24%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $44.115 per ounce, down 1.11%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 860 yuan per gram, up 1.03%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 10397 yuan per kilogram, up 0.83% [2] 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 24.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 74.4%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 14.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 53.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 31.3%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.72 tons to 996.85 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15469.12 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12.8 tons to 1161.8 tons daily; as of the week ending September 19, SGX silver inventory increased by 35.4 tons to 1217 tons weekly [3] 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. Mainly focus on the final value of the US second - quarter GDP on Thursday night and the US August PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, on Thursday at 20:20, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give a speech; at 21:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the 4th annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar. On Friday at 01:00, Fed Governor Barr will speak on bank stress tests; at 22:00, Fed Governor Bowman will give a speech [3] 4. Nanhua's Viewpoint - The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish. In the short - term, the daily gains of London gold and silver have slowed down. London gold closed with a negative candlestick, and London silver closed with a high - level doji, indicating increased short - term adjustment pressure. London gold has support around 3700 and resistance at 3800; London silver has resistance in the 44.5 - 45 area and support at 43.5 and 43. It is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but considering the approaching National Day holiday, investors are advised to hold light positions [4][5] 5. Precious Metal Futures and Spot Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [5] 6. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver positions, and SPDR gold and SLV silver ETF holdings [13][14] 7. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10Y US Treasury yield, 10Y US real interest rate, and 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread [21]
南华期货玉米、淀粉产业链日报-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - New - season supply pressure drives down corn prices. After the new - grain offer opened high, it has been falling, and there is still downward pressure on prices after large - scale listing [1] - Currently, the amount of corn on the market is limited, the decline of spot prices is small. The spot market shows the characteristics of continuous decline of damp grain and firm dry grain, and the near - month contracts of the futures market are resistant to decline [1] - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as new grain is listed in large quantities [1] - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of the expected bumper harvest and waiting for further guidance from the supply side [1] 3. Summaries according to Related Catalogues 3.1 Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 | 2025 - 09 - 24 | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2158 | 2164 | 6 | 0.28% | | Corn 01 | 2134 | 2136 | 2 | 0.09% | | Corn 03 | 2148 | 2146 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 05 | 2204 | 2202 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 07 | 2220 | 2215 | - 5 | - 0.23% | | Corn 09 | 2229 | 2229 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2447 | 2469 | 22 | 0.90% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2452 | 2462 | 10 | 0.41% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2457 | 2464 | 7 | 0.28% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2539 | 2544 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2544 | 2549 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2572 | 2591 | 19 | 0.74% | | Wheat Average Price | 2442 | 2444 | 2 | 0.08% | [2] 3.2利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The market is looking forward to the later purchase and reserve policy of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation, but it takes time and there is uncertainty [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, and the substitution pressure was small [3] - The supply of old - season grain sources is tight, and it takes time for new - season grain to supplement. Shandong deep - processing enterprises generally raised prices to promote purchases [3] 3.3利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary oversupply of supply puts pressure on prices [3] - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have been lowered, transportation is difficult, and local enterprises mainly lower prices [3] 3.4 Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main - continuous Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Today's Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2300 | 0 | Shandong | 2780 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2440 | 0 | Jilin | 2570 | 0 | | Harbin | 2170 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2520 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - continuous Basis | 136 | - 6 | Shandong Main - continuous Basis | 311 | - 22 | [12] 3.5 US Corn Prices and Import Profits | | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - continuous | 424 | - 1.75 | - 0.41% | | | COBT Soybean Main - continuous | 1008.5 | - 4 | - 0.4% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - continuous | 519.5 | - 1.25 | - 0.24% | | | US Gulf Duty - paid Price | 2146.62 | 13.18 | 0.62% | 293.38 | | US West Duty - paid Price | 2004.48 | 13.24 | 0.66% | 435.52 | [24]
南华镍、不锈钢产业风险管理日报-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 11:27
Report Overview - The report is the "South China Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily" dated September 24, 2025, by the South China New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently in a state of internal oscillation, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. Concerns about the stability of ore supply are increasing, while the cobalt price has upward potential, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. Nickel iron prices remain firm, and the stainless steel market shows a wait - and - see attitude before the holiday [3] Key Points by Category Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.88% and a historical percentile of 0.1% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory devaluation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3] Market Situation Analysis Core Contradictions - In the nickel market, the Indonesian energy department's sanctions on mining companies have increased concerns about the stability of ore supply. In the new energy sector, the expected extension of the cobalt export ban in Congo may drive up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. Nickel iron prices are firm, and the stainless steel market shows a wait - and - see attitude [3] Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, and the stainless steel has been destocking for several weeks. Also, the Indonesian forestry working group has taken over part of the nickel mining area [5] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless steel import tariffs, the implementation of South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel plates, weak stainless steel spot transactions [5] Market Data Nickel Disk - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,450 yuan/ton, up 1% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 103.70% to 107,755 lots, and the open interest increased by 125.11% to 85,526 lots [5] Stainless Steel Disk - The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,895 yuan/ton, with little change. The trading volume decreased by 12.00% to 122,330 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.80% to 116,704 lots [5] Inventory Data - Domestic nickel social inventory is 41,484 tons, an increase of 429 tons; LME nickel inventory is 230,586 tons, an increase of 132 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 897,200 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [6] Industry News - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]
铁矿石11合约月度价格预测-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 09:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Before the holiday, the market sentiment was cautious, with the black - series commodities reducing positions on the pre - holiday disk and price fluctuations decreasing. The current contradictions in iron ore are not significant. The supply of iron ore shipments has recovered to a medium - high level, and steel mills are replenishing stocks before the holiday, resulting in a tight balance in overall demand. On the demand side, the marginal profit of steel mills has slightly recovered, the inventory of rebar has marginally eased, and the contradictions have been alleviated, but increased rainfall in the South is unfavorable for demand. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are both strong, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and future attention should be paid to whether the demand can further increase. Currently, overseas orders support the price. After the interest rate cut, trading is expected to be closer to the fundamentals, with prices expected to fluctuate without a strong trend. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **October Price Forecast for Iron Ore 11 Contract**: The price forecast range is 780 - 850, the current at - the - money option IV is 20.94%, and the historical volatility quantile is 11.3% [2] - **October Iron Ore Risk Management Strategy Recommendations** - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), the strategies are to directly short iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2511, short, 25%, entry range 840 - 850) and sell call options to collect premiums (I2511 - C - 850, 30%, sell on rallies) [2] - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases (short risk exposure), the strategies are to directly go long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2511, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and sell out - of - the - money put options. If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions (I2511 - P - 790, 40%, sell on rallies) [2] Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: Before the holiday, the market was cautious, with reduced positions in the black - series commodity market and smaller price fluctuations. Iron ore supply has recovered, and steel mills are restocking, maintaining a tight balance in demand. Steel mill profits have slightly recovered, and rebar inventory has eased, but southern rainfall affects demand. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are strong, but inventory is accumulating. After the interest rate cut, trading will be more fundamental - based, and prices will fluctuate without a clear trend. Position reduction is recommended before the holiday [3] - **Positive Factors** - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and two more cuts are expected this year, with global financial conditions being loose and the manufacturing PMI rising [4] - Hot - rolled coils have regained export profits after price drops [4] - Steel mill profits have slightly recovered [4] - Rebar inventory has decreased, and industrial chain contradictions have not further accumulated, releasing some risks [4] - There are expectations of economic stimulus due to weak domestic economic data [4] - **Negative Factors** - Steel inventory remains high under high hot - metal production, putting pressure on the fundamentals [4] - Iron ore shipments have increased, and non - mainstream shipments are at a seasonal high [4] Iron Ore Price and Index Data - **Contract Closing Prices and Basis**: On September 24, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 803.5, the 05 contract at 783, and the 09 contract at 762. The 01 basis was - 9.5, the 05 basis was 11, and the 09 basis was 32 [5][6] - **Spot Prices**: On September 24, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 794, Rizhao Carajás fines was 929, and Rizhao Super Special fines was 720 [6] - **Platts Index**: On September 23, 2025, the Platts 58% index was 95.3, the Platts 62% index was 106.2, and the Platts 65% index was 120.15 [7] Iron Ore Fundamental Data - **Production and Transportation Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 339.17, the global shipment volume was 3324.8, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2693.3, and the 45 - port arrival volume was 2675 [13] - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08, the 247 - steel mill inventory was 9309.43, and the 247 - steel mill available days were 31.3 [13]
多元金融板块9月24日跌1.56%,拉卡拉领跌,主力资金净流出1.18亿元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-09-24 08:46
Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 1.56% on September 24, with Lakala leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the diversified financial sector included Sichuan Shuangma, which rose by 4.65% to a closing price of 22.05, and Yalian Development, which increased by 4.52% to 5.32 [1] - Lakala, on the other hand, saw a decrease of 2.05%, closing at 23.93, with a trading volume of 483,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.156 billion [2] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 118 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 191 million [2][3] - Among individual stocks, Zhongliang Capital had a net inflow of 60.1 million from institutional investors, while it experienced a net outflow of 34.3 million from retail investors [3]