南华期货油料产业周报 ——近月通关延迟偏强，远月到港压力偏弱 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前豆粕盘面交易重点在于：对于进口大豆，近月现实压力可能会持续压制盘面，但近期传出港口大豆 通关延迟消息，使得油料整体开启反弹。对于进口大豆，买船成本方面看，巴西升贴水在外盘走弱后保持坚 挺，总体支撑国内买船成本。量级方面看，美豆目前只能通过储备买船进口，商业买船继续以采购巴西船期 为主，但由于榨利表现一般，整体买船情绪较前期有所降低，故目前12月预估到港750万吨，1月600万吨，2 月500万吨左右。仅从到港量来看，在明年一季度同比往年或存在一定供应缺口，但目前国内开启采购美豆窗 口后，国家或将以轮储形式对远月供应添加增量。所以总的来看，近期弱现实依旧是压制盘面反弹高度的主 要因素，但阶段性供应缺口或延迟到港问题将影响国内进口大豆整体供应节奏，使得盘面出现阶段性反弹。 对于国内豆粕，供应方面，全国进口大豆港口与油厂库存维持高位，豆粕延续季节性库 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the development of Hengdian, known as the "Oriental Hollywood," which has become the world's largest film shooting base, generating an annual output value exceeding 35 billion yuan [5][10]. - Hengdian Group, founded 50 years ago, has diversified into various sectors including film and tourism, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, with total assets exceeding 100 billion yuan and six listed companies under its umbrella [5][15][17]. - The founder, Xu Wenrong, and his son, Xu Yong'an, are described as low-profile billionaires, emphasizing that the wealth of Hengdian Group belongs to the collective rather than individuals [6][18]. Group 2 - Hengdian's film industry strategy includes offering free shooting locations to attract film crews, which has led to significant growth in related services such as accommodation and dining, with the film industry generating 15.7 billion yuan in 2020 alone [10][11]. - The Hengdian Film City is projected to receive 15.24 million visitors in 2023, with revenues of 2.638 billion yuan, and 13.93 million visitors in 2024, with revenues of 2.867 billion yuan [11][12]. - Hengdian Film's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1.971 billion yuan, with nearly 90% coming from cinema operations, while film investment and production contribute 10.3% [12]. Group 3 - Hengdian Group's assets include a general airport and a water plant, with a total revenue of 94.2 billion yuan in 2024 and a net profit of 3.124 billion yuan [17][18]. - The group has a unique corporate structure where ownership is held by community organizations, which has drawn interest from economists [19][20]. - The company is facing challenges in its magnetic materials sector, with market share declining to around 30%, and is adapting to the rise of short dramas in the film industry [24][25]. Group 4 - Hengdian Group is actively seeking transformation, with its photovoltaic sector achieving revenue of 11.47 billion yuan in 2025, a 43.6% increase, becoming a key business segment [25]. - The overall development of Hengdian has significantly improved local income levels, with residents' average annual income reaching 70,000 yuan [25].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report focuses on various financial and commodity markets, including macroeconomics, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and commodities [1][2][3] - The overseas market shows strong GDP growth in the US, while the domestic market emphasizes expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies [2] - The end - of - year market is affected by factors such as low liquidity, holiday effects, and policy expectations [4] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - The RMB exchange rate is expected to end the year stably after a temporary halt in its sharp rise. The focus is on the effect of exchange - rate - stabilizing policies [3][4] - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0098 on the previous trading day, down 13 basis points, and the mid - price was 7.0331, up 27 basis points [3] Group 3: Stocks - The stock index faces pressure to break through at high levels and is expected to fluctuate and accumulate momentum in the short term. After the New Year, there is a greater probability of a spring rally [4][5] - The CSI 300 index closed down 0.38 on the previous trading day, and the trading volume of the two markets decreased slightly [4] Group 4: Bonds - The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term. Although the bond futures fell sharply on Monday, the view is to hold mid - term long positions and intervene in short - term long positions on dips [5][6] - The bond futures opened sharply lower on Monday and then fluctuated narrowly. The overnight funds were loose, but the cross - year funds were tight [5] Group 5: Commodities - Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices dropped significantly due to factors such as profit - taking, exchange risk - control measures, and pre - holiday risk aversion. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term risks are high [7][8][9] - Gold and silver prices also experienced a sharp decline. The short - term is weak, and the long - term is still optimistic. It is recommended to reduce positions or clear positions in the short term [10][11][12] Group 6: Commodities - Base Metals - Copper prices fell due to pre - holiday profit - taking. The short - term adjustment does not change the long - term upward trend, and it is recommended to watch more and act less before the holiday [13][15] - Aluminum faces short - term adjustment pressure, while alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up performance [15][16] - Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, and tin are expected to fluctuate widely, and lithium carbonate is recommended to focus on long - term value and avoid short - term risks [17][20][21] Group 7: Commodities - Black Metals - Steel prices such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with support from the cost side and pressure from weak demand [28][29] - Iron ore prices fluctuate with high supply and rigid demand balancing each other [30] - Coking coal and coke are facing a fourth - round price cut, and the future trend depends on supply and demand changes [31][33] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited [34][35] Group 8: Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices fell due to market sentiment, while offset paper prices rose due to cost support. It is recommended to wait and see [37][39][40] - LPG has near - term support but is under pressure in the medium - term [41][42] - PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips face a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. It is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes and cost factors [43][45][48] - Methanol is recommended to buy at low prices, while PP, PE, pure benzene - styrene, and other products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [49][53][60] - Rubber is expected to fluctuate widely, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [61][64][65] - Logs are expected to fluctuate without clear upward or downward drivers, and propylene is recommended to pay attention to marginal changes [68][69][70] Group 9: Agricultural Products - The supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified. The long - term can be bullish, but the short - term is based on fundamentals [72][73][74] - Oilseeds show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to try a long - short spread strategy with a light position [75][76] - Oils are expected to fluctuate, with palm oil being relatively strong in the sector [77][78] - Cotton prices may experience a short - term correction but have long - term upward potential [79][80] - Sugar prices face increasing upward pressure in the short term [81][82] - Eggs are in a situation of over - capacity in the long term, and it is recommended to participate in a long - position rebound with a light position [83] - Apples face short - term upward pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a retracement to go long [84][85] - Red dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to pre - holiday procurement [86][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall soybean planting in Brazil and Argentina is progressing well, but attention should be paid to the rainfall in Argentina in the next two weeks [1][2][15][39] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Brazil's Meteorological Situation - Brazil's national soybean sowing progress has reached 97.6%, and the crops are generally in good growth, gradually recovering from the negative impact of uneven rainfall in December [1][15] - In the central region, it has entered the vegetative growth stage, and the replanted areas in the east and south are at the historical average level [1][15] - In Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, continuous rainfall is conducive to most areas entering the reproductive growth stage and showing good yield potential [1][15] - In Goiás, the planting work is nearing completion, the rainfall has returned to normal, and the problems of soil moisture shortage and uneven growth have been alleviated [1][15] - In Minas Gerais, sowing is basically completed, but excessive rainfall in some areas has delayed the fertilization progress [1][16] - In Paraná, about one - third of the area has entered the grain - filling stage, and most crops are growing well [1][16] - In Rio Grande do Sul, effective precipitation has alleviated the previous soil moisture shortage and created favorable conditions for the germination of areas sown in early December [1][16] 3.2 Argentina's Meteorological Situation - Argentina's sowing progress has increased by 8.2% week - on - week to 75.5%, with a good rate of 99% and a water sufficiency rate of 96% [2][39] - The first - sown soybeans have entered the late growth stage, and the planting in the northern Pampas agricultural area continues. Recent significant rainfall in the northeast is beneficial for soil moisture recovery [2][39] - About 10% of the planted area has entered the vegetative growth stage, mainly in the central and southern regions, with sufficient soil moisture [2][39] - The second - season soybean planting has completed 57.9%, and the central and southern regions are progressing well. However, there may be a decrease in rainfall in the next two weeks, so rainfall needs to be continuously monitored [2][39] 3.3 International Soybean Annual Focus Points - January: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [57] - February: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [57] - March: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [57] - April: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [57] - May: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [57] - June: U.S. yield per unit area and Brazilian exports [57] - July - September: U.S. yield per unit area [57] - October: U.S. yield per unit area, production, and South American planting area [57] - November - December: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [57] 3.4 Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Planting period: The average daily temperature of the 5 - cm soil layer at the beginning of sowing should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the moisture should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Disaster risks include floods and extreme drought [65] - Blooming period: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Disaster risks include floods, droughts, etc. [65] - Growth period: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Disaster risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [65] - Harvest period: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil moisture should be about 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Disaster risks include continuous rainfall and storms [65]

Group 1 - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. (02691.HK) experienced a significant increase in stock price, rising over 10% in the afternoon session [1] - As of the report, the stock price is up 7.85%, trading at HKD 10.17 [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 17.3672 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, establishing an "A+H" dual capital platform to enhance its global development strategy [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Nanhua Futures shares rose over 10% in the afternoon trading session, with a current price of HKD 10.17 and a trading volume of HKD 17.37 million [1] - The company aims to utilize the net proceeds from its H-share listing to strengthen its capital base in key regions, with specific allocations for various markets [1] Group 2: Fund Allocation - 30% of the raised funds will be allocated to enhance operations in Hong Kong and expand into Malaysia [1] - 30% will be directed towards the UK and European markets [1] - 20% is planned for North American business development [1] - 10% will be used to expand operations in Singapore, with the remaining 10% allocated for general corporate purposes and working capital [1] Group 3: Business Performance - Nanhua Futures' overseas business is identified as a core competitive advantage, with projected overseas financial business revenue of CNY 654 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3% [1] - The overseas revenue is expected to account for 48.3% of total revenue, significantly higher than industry peers [1] - The company and its subsidiaries hold derivatives trading and clearing licenses in major markets such as Hong Kong, the US, the UK, and Singapore, ensuring comprehensive coverage of key global futures trading hours [1]

消息面上，12月22日，南华期货正式在港交所主板挂牌上市，成功构筑"A+H"双资本平台，开启全球化 发展新篇章。公司此次H股上市募资净额将重点投向境外业务，预计募资净额将精准用于强化核心区域 资本基础。其中，30%加码香港业务及扩展马来西亚业务、30%投向英国及欧洲市场、20%布局北美业 务、10%拓展新加坡业务，剩余10%用作一般企业用途及补充营运资金。 南华期货（603093）股份(02691)午后涨超10%，截至发稿，涨7.85%，报10.17港元，成交额1736.72万 港元。 华西证券（002926）指出，南华期货境外业务为核心竞争力，2024年境外金融业务收入达6.54亿元，同 比增长15.3%，占总营收比例达48.3%，显著高于同业。横华国际及其子公司拥有中国香港、美国、英 国、新加坡等主流市场衍生品交易及清算牌照，实现全球主要期货交易时段全覆盖。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Nanhua Futures has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 64.40%, despite recent fluctuations in trading volume and price [1] - As of December 29, Nanhua Futures' stock price reached 19.44 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 13.953 billion yuan [1] - The company has experienced a net inflow of main funds amounting to 338,700 yuan, with large orders accounting for 11.32% of total purchases [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures, established on May 28, 1996, is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and was listed on August 30, 2019 [2] - The company's main business segments include risk management (50.19%), overseas financial services (29.70%), futures brokerage (17.32%), wealth management (2.51%), and other services (0.28%) [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Nanhua Futures reported a revenue of 941 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 351 million yuan, down 1.92% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Nanhua Futures has distributed a total of 173 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 120 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 12.94% to 37,600, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 14.86% to 16,231 shares [2][3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 3.0049 million shares, a decrease of 2.4675 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including expectations of liquidity easing due to the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts and technical balance sheet expansion, a global trend towards de-dollarization exacerbated by trade tariff policies, and a weakening of the dollar's position due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [1] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Strong investor demand has replaced central bank gold purchases as the primary force driving gold prices higher [1] - The macroeconomic backdrop includes a combination of liquidity expectations and geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [1] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is experiencing a more structural supply-demand imbalance, characterized by persistently low global silver inventories [1] - A "structural squeeze" phenomenon is observed in the market, driven by increasing rigid industrial demand in sectors such as solar photovoltaic, electronics, and healthcare, leading to soaring spot premiums [1]

Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm for A-share companies to list in Hong Kong has surged since 2025, with a significant increase in the "A+H" dual listing model, reflecting a growing trend among quality mainland enterprises to leverage global resources for high-quality development [1][3]. Group 1: A+H Dual Listing Growth - As of December 28, 2025, 19 A-share companies successfully listed in Hong Kong, a 533% increase from 3 companies in 2024, accounting for over 50% of the total fundraising in the Hong Kong IPO market [1]. - Over 160 A-share companies have disclosed plans for Hong Kong listings in 2025, covering key sectors such as new energy, healthcare, and smart home technology [2]. - The number of companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market reached 111 in 2025, with total financing amounting to approximately 2786.78 billion HKD, including 1399.93 billion HKD raised by the 19 A-share companies [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Trend - The core drivers for the surge in A-share companies listing in Hong Kong include policy optimization, financing advantages of the Hong Kong market, valuation complementarity between the two markets, and the need for global expansion [3]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has implemented significant reforms in 2025, enhancing its role as a capital hub connecting mainland and global markets, which supports A-share companies in their globalization strategies [4]. Group 3: Benefits of A+H Listing - A+H listings significantly broaden financing channels for companies, allowing them to connect with a wider international capital market [5]. - The dual regulatory standards of A-shares and H-shares compel companies to improve governance structures and information disclosure, enhancing operational transparency [6]. - Successfully listing in Hong Kong serves as a strong international brand endorsement, increasing global recognition and market credibility for companies [6].