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油脂价格区间预测
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 07:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term international oil and fat supply pattern is disrupted by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean oil, and the strong uncertainty of US energy policy. The oil and fat market is mainly in shock adjustment. However, the policy is only valid until the end of October. With signs of production reduction in Malaysian palm oil and uncertain Sino - US and Sino - Canadian policies, there is an expectation of tight supply of domestic oils and fats from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a rebound in the far - month market. The short - term disk may maintain a weak shock. Strategies should be based on a shock mindset, not chasing short positions. Opportunities for P1 - 5 and OI1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered, as well as opportunities for the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil to widen [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content **Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies** - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8400, with a current volatility of 11.5% and a historical percentile of 2.4% in 3 years; for rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10300, with a current volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1% in 3 years; for palm oil, it is 8900 - 9500, with a current volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% in 3 years [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders with high oil and fat inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 8300 - 8400 [2]. - **Refineries with low procurement inventory**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) at present, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8000 - 8100 [2]. - **Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices**: They can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their situation, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8200 - 8300 [2]. **Market Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The arrival of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season in China may boost downstream stocking [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - On September 23, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1062.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1092.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars; the import cost was 9314.23 yuan, down 191.26 yuan, hitting a new low in nearly one and a half months. The import profit was - 454.23 yuan/ton, down 208.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, with this week's crushing volume expected to be around 2.4 million tons [7]. - As of September 23, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.227 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from 1.203 million tons in the same period last week [7]. - To suppress the risk of peso depreciation, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on major agricultural products from Monday until October 31 or until sales reach 7 billion US dollars, including 26% for soybeans, 24% for soybean oil and soybean meal, and 9.5% for corn and wheat [7]. **Market Price Data** - **Palm Oil**: - Palm oil 01 contract price is 9054 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; palm oil 05 contract price is 8856 yuan/ton, down 3.26%; palm oil 09 contract price is 8480 yuan/ton, down 3.66%. The BMD palm oil main contract price is 4350 ringgit/ton, up 0.16%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8970 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis is - 194 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan [8][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: - Soybean oil 01 contract price is 8086 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 05 contract price is 7848 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 09 contract price is 7790 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract price is 49.63 cents/pound, down 1.9%. The price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8150 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [15]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Rapeseed oil 01 contract price is 9996 yuan/ton, down 147 yuan; rapeseed oil 05 contract price is 9467 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; rapeseed oil 09 contract price is 9400 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract price is 616.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar. The price of rapeseed oil in East China is 10050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the basis is 54 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [18].
南华金属日报:涨势放缓,轻仓过节-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 03:13
夏莹莹(投资咨询证号:Z0016569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月24日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格整体呈现冲高回落走势,反映为上涨动能的减弱。盘中伦敦金最高上摸3791附近,伦敦银亦 接近44.5。随着国内国庆假期临近,以及前期贵金属涨幅较大,建议前多减仓过节,节中将公布重磅美非农 与ISM PMI数据。周边美指与1Y美债收益率震荡,10Y美债收益率则回落,比特币延续弱势,原油回升一定 程度增加短期通胀压力并抑制近端货币政策降息预期与贵金属价格。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3796.9 美元/盎司,+0.58%;美白银2512合约收报于44.265美元/盎司,+0.12%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约 收 855.44元/克,+1.%;SHFE白银2512合约收10349元/千克,+1.78%。消息面,周三凌晨美联储主席鲍威尔 讲话,指出美股估值偏高,并再次强调当前经济面临通胀上行与就业市场疲软的双重压力,但对10月是否降 息仍未作出明确表态。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示,美联储10月维持利率不变概率7%,降息25个基点的概率为93 ...
金融期货早评-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:13
Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire report were provided. Core Views - The macro - economic situation is complex. In the domestic market, economic growth is slowing, but policy support is in place. The stock market is strong, while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the fluctuation center is around 7.10, and there is no sign of a trend appreciation for now. The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policies, and excessive bets on loose policies may bring risks [4]. - The stock index has support below due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and the current market lacks positive drivers [8][9]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract [11]. - Precious metals may be bullish in the long - term, but the short - term upward momentum is weakening. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday [12][16]. - Copper is expected to remain stable and may fluctuate slightly above 80,000 yuan per ton. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly [17][18]. - Zinc is expected to move downward slowly. Nickel and stainless steel short - positions can be stopped and reduced at low prices, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - guidance [20][21]. - Tin is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities. Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday. Lead is expected to be cautiously bullish [26][29]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore is expected to trade based on fundamentals and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke are anti - falling, and it is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [31][33][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and their downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. - Crude oil is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate in a range. PTA - PX prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to try long positions cautiously. Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [43][46][48]. - PP's downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices. PE is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a weak state, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - Rubber is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - Pulp is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Logs are expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [70][71]. - Propylene investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74]. Summary by Directory Macro - The US manufacturing and service PMI declined in September, and the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The Fed's interest - rate cut path has differences, and the market is concerned about the PCE data [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1133 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1057, up 49 basis points. The RMB is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated yesterday, and the large - cap index was relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6][8]. Bond - The bond market fell yesterday, and it is recommended to use a volatile trading idea and buy long positions at intervals [9]. Shipping - The shipping index (European line) futures price fell back. The spot price of some shipping companies increased, while others decreased. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 12 - contract can be considered for long positions [10][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose and then fell on Tuesday. The upward momentum weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday. The medium - and long - term may be bullish, and the short - term may be adjusted [12][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price remained stable at around 80,000 yuan per ton, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly above this level [17]. - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by macro - policies and fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to be weak [19]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to move downward slowly, and it is recommended to buy put options or sell call options [20][21]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to stop and reduce short positions at low prices [21][22]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24][25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The price is expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday [26][27]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be cautiously bullish [29]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of crude steel has shrunk, and the demand has improved slightly. The inventory is still at a high level, and the price is expected to fluctuate [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has recovered, and the demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is anti - falling. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The cost provides support, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded, but it is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - **LPG**: The price rebounded with emotions and crude oil, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [41][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The price declined due to pessimistic emotions. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously [44][46]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [48]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices [51]. - **PE**: The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The price fell, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - **Rubber**: It is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [70]. - **Logs**: The price is expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [71]. - **Propylene**: Investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74].
南华期货玉米、淀粉产业链日报-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:59
玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/24 戴鸿绪(投资咨询证号:Z002181) 康全贵(从业资格证号:F03148699) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 新季供应压力驱动价格下行,东北多地深加工企业继续下调新粮报价,华北地区深加工(除山东)价格走 弱; 玉米需求端整体稳定,进口压力有限; 当前玉米上量有限,现货价格下跌幅度较小,使得提前收获地区获益,后期价格压力将逐步增加; 当前基差处于偏高水平,随着进入新粮大量上市,基差面临回落风险; 【利多解读】 1、山东深加工企业报价坚挺; 2、8月进口玉米保持地量水平,替代压力较小; 3、近日,国家粮食和物资储备局举行2025年全国秋粮收购暨粮食产业项目推进工作会议。会议指出,抓好粮 食收购和项目建设,对保持粮食市场平稳运行、加快粮食产业高质量发展具有重要意义。做好秋粮收购工 作,需在提升收储能力等五方面下功夫,坚决守住农民"种粮卖得出"的底线,不断提升国家粮食安全保障能 力。 【利空解读】 1、玉米处于新季收获上市期,供应的阶段性宽松对价格造成压力; 2、多地深加工企业下调新粮收购报价,尤其黑龙江地区新粮报价较初期有连续下跌过 ...
南华期货:赴香港上市,获中国证监会备案通知书
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 13:28
根据备案通知书,南华期货拟发行不超过约1.55亿股股境外上市普通股并在香港联合交易所上市。 来源:瑞恩资本 2025年9月19日,中国证监会国际合作司发布关于南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称南华期货)境外发行 上市备案通知书(国合函[2025]1618号)。 南华期货招股书链接: https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107301/documents/sehk25041702069_c.pdf 南华期货(603093.SH),于2019年8月30日在A股上市,为中国首家在A股上市的期货公司,截至周一 (2025年9月22日)收市,总市值约人民币131亿元。 南华期货,于2025年4月17日在港交所递交招股书,中信证券独家保荐。 南华期货,成立于1996年,作为一家综合性的全球金融服务平台,产品服务包括中国境内期货经纪、中 国境内风险管理服务、中国境内财富管理以及境外金融服务,涵盖了期货及衍生品的整个价值链。根据 弗若斯特沙利文报告,在中国:按2023年总收入计,南华期货在所有期货公司中排名第8,在所有非金 融机构相关期货公司中排名第1;按2023年期货经纪佣金收入计,其在 ...
南华镍、不锈钢产业风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:38
南华镍&不锈钢产业风险管理日报 2025/9/23 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号:Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号:F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source: 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 6.91% | 0.1% | source: 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级(满分 5) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润,对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主力合约 | 卖出 | 60 ...
南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:32
南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年09月23日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书:Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号:F03144703 联系邮箱:yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 震荡区间:8000-9000 | 32.0% | 87.9% | source: 南华研究,同花顺 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划,担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 润减少的风险 | 为防止价格下跌 导致销售利润减 少,企业需在采 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | 到原料的同时卖 | | | | | | | | 出期 ...
期货公司出海潮再起!南华期货获H股发行备案,加速构建全球服务网络
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-22 23:41
Group 1 - Nanhua Futures has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its plan to issue up to 124 million shares for overseas listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in its "A+H" listing strategy [1][4] - The company aims to deepen its global strategic layout, expand financing channels, and strengthen its overseas business advantages through this listing [1][4] - Nanhua Futures' overseas business has shown impressive growth, with revenue from international operations increasing from 231 million yuan to 654 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 68.26% [4][5] Group 2 - The expansion of Nanhua Futures into international markets reflects a broader trend among Chinese futures companies, with 22 overseas primary subsidiaries and 39 secondary subsidiaries established as of June 2025 [2] - The internationalization of futures companies is driven by the need to diversify income sources and reduce competition in the domestic market, with many firms establishing overseas subsidiaries to offer a range of financial services [2][6] - The successful completion of Nanhua Futures' Hong Kong listing would make it the second "A+H" listed futures company in China, providing a reference point for the industry's international development [7]
南华期货发行H股并在香港上市计划获得中国证监会备案
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-22 14:41
Group 1 - Nanhua Futures has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for its plan to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking significant progress in its listing process [2][3] - The company plans to issue up to 123,807,500 shares for its overseas listing, indicating that it has met domestic regulatory requirements and is moving to the next stage of the overseas approval process [3] - Nanhua Futures aims to deepen its global strategic layout through this listing, which is a continuation of its growth strategy since its initial public offering on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2019 [3][4] Group 2 - If successful, Nanhua Futures will become the second A+H listed futures company in China, joining Hongye Futures, which is currently the only one [4] - According to Frost & Sullivan data, Nanhua Futures ranks 8th among all futures companies in China by total revenue in 2023 and ranks 1st among non-financial institution-related futures companies [4] - As of June 30, 2025, Nanhua Futures reported total operating revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.27%, while its net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.0699 million yuan, marking a 0.46% year-on-year increase [5]
南华期货赴港上市迎来重要进展!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-09-22 14:37
Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures has made significant progress in its plan to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having received the necessary filing from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [1][2]. Group 1: Listing Progress - The company plans to issue up to 123,807,500 H-shares for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. - The receipt of the CSRC's filing indicates that Nanhua Futures has met domestic regulatory requirements and is moving to the next stage of overseas approval [2]. - The company still needs to obtain approvals from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating that uncertainties remain [2][3]. Group 2: Company Background - Nanhua Futures was established in 1996 and successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2019 [4]. - The company primarily engages in commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures investment consulting, asset management, and securities investment fund distribution, serving as a global financial derivatives service platform [4]. - If successful, Nanhua Futures will become the second "A+H" listed futures company in China, following Hongye Futures [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - According to the latest financial report, Nanhua Futures achieved total operating revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.27% [4]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 231 million yuan, an increase of 1.0699 million yuan compared to the same period last year, marking three consecutive years of growth with a year-on-year increase of 0.46% [4].