南华期货铜产业周报 ——持仓创新高，多空资金博弈加剧 南华有色金属研究团队 傅小燕 投资咨询证号：Z0002675 联系邮箱：fxiaoyan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/12/28 第一章 核心矛盾与策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周美国初请失业金人数小于预期，降息概率小幅下修。据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个 基点的概率为17.7%，维持利率不变的概率为82.3%。数据还表明，到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为 45.6%，维持利率不变的概率为46.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.7%。但市场并未过多解读。CFTC持仓 显示，Comex铜投机净多头资金继续增仓，价格顺势大涨。 基本面上，上游冶炼企业采购情绪较强，但中游电解铜买卖双方购销情绪偏弱，因为下游加工企业采购畏高 情绪仍在，实际成交量偏少，甚至有企业开始"躺平"，现货价格涨幅受限。LME铜注销仓单仍维持在 50000吨上下，局部供应紧张支撑中国保税区铜溢价回升，目前出口窗口依然打开。 CSPT不对2026年一季度设定现货采购指导价，打破往年惯例，表明当前铜价已超出企业认知，一季 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea is in a stage of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity, and its price center in 2026 will further decline, but the decline will be supported by export policies. In the first half of 2026, corresponding to the peak agricultural demand season, exports are likely to be suspended, and the urea market will fluctuate according to the demand rhythm. In the second half of the year, export policies will be relied on to relieve the domestic supply pressure, and the price trend will be policy - dominated. The urea 05 contract has an expectation of price increase during the domestic demand peak season, probably starting one month before the Spring Festival in 2026, with the top - end range between 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try to buy far - month contracts [3]. - The short - term domestic urea market is in a weak and stalemate state. The current urea market is mainly in a narrow - range rebound and then a stalemate, with an overall oscillating trend, but the bottom - end range may continue to rise [11][17]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The urea market is in a supply - surplus stage due to new capacity release. In 2026, the price center will decline but be supported by export policies. The 05 contract has a price - increase expectation during the domestic demand peak season, likely starting one month before the 2026 Spring Festival, with a top - end range of 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is advisable to try buying far - month contracts [3]. - Although new delivery warehouses have been added for urea, the cheapest deliverable locations are still Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of the export expectation for the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 month spread should be in a reverse - arbitrage position. The 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [6]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to operate in a weak and oscillating manner. The UR2601 is expected to trade in the range of 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and to conduct reverse - arbitrage for the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [13]. - **Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong due to peak - season demand expectations [14]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: The upper pressure on the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, with dynamic fluctuations. It is recommended to short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse - arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread at high prices [14]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: None [15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fourth quarter is the winter - storage period for the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL has issued a new urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons (800,000 tons on the west coast and 700,000 tons on the east coast), with a bid - closing date of January 2, 2026, and a validity period until January 16, and the latest shipping date of February 20 [16]. - **Negative Information**: As of this week, the domestic daily urea production is 208,100 tons. Next week, the maintenance devices of Shandong Union and Jiangsu Linggu will gradually resume, while some gas - based urea plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan are expected to have concentrated maintenance. The domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly after a narrow - range upward fluctuation. If the maintenance expectation is fulfilled, the domestic daily urea production is likely to drop to around 200,000 tons [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's urea production this week is 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,400 tons or 2.93%. Next week, China's weekly urea production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, continuing to increase. There are no plans for plant shutdowns in the next cycle, and 5 - 6 plants may resume production [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic urea market continued to rise firmly over the weekend, with an increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of small and medium - sized granules in the main regions are between 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. Driven by the news of the fourth batch of urea export quotas and the new Indian tender, the market sentiment is strong, but the downstream resistance is emerging. The short - term market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [19]. - The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. The demand from compound fertilizer and industrial sectors is weak, and the price - driving force is limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse - arbitrage pattern [20]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Urea Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is predicted to be 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [26]. - **Urea Hedging Strategy Table** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short urea futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton. They can also buy put options to prevent large price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs, with a 50% and 50% hedging ratio for buying put options and selling call options respectively, and corresponding entry ranges [26]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy urea futures at present to lock in procurement costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 75% hedging ratio and an entry range [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The report provides seasonal data on the production cost and profit of urea production methods such as fixed - bed, water - coal slurry gasification, etc., but specific profit - related analysis is not elaborated [27][28][31]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on the daily production, weekly capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization of urea, reflecting the production - side situation [36][37][38]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi of urea, as well as the total inventory of ports and inland areas [39][40][41]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on the capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, production profit, and market price of downstream products such as compound fertilizer and melamine, reflecting the downstream market situation [45][46][47]. 4.5 Spot Sales and Production Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on the average sales and production of urea in different regions such as Shandong, Henan, etc., reflecting the spot - market sales and production situation [69][70][71].

南华期货铅产业周报 ——虚强实弱 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前铅价的强势并非源自铅自身供需的内生驱动，而是宏观"强预期"与白银等副产品溢价在微观库存 低位上的投机性共振。宏观层面，海外市场正处于"圣诞避险"与"交易2026年宽松"的甜蜜期，国内则 在"十五五"规划纲要的政策强心针下，不仅地产止稳预期升温，新基建逻辑更是带动有色板块整体估值上 移，铅作为板块内的低估值品种被动跟涨。然而，剥离宏观滤镜回归产业现实，供需两端正在出现显著 的"剪刀差"背离：供应端随着环保扰动消退及冶炼利润修复，再生铅周度开工率已回升至45.4%，原生铅 检修恢复亦带来边际增量；反观需求端，正值2025年岁末关账节点，下游电池厂处于典型的"去库盘点"垃 圾时间，采购意愿降至冰点。值得注意的是，尽管供需边际走弱，但极低的社会库存（五地仅1.79万吨）成 为了多头最后的堡垒，这种"低库存+强宏观"的组合掩盖了现货成交的寡淡。因此，短期铅价的定价权已暂 时移交至宏观资金与白银情绪手中，基本面供需的实质性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include macro - sentiment and policy disturbances, relatively stable spot supply - demand, significant suppression from the main downstream PP, and PDH profit pressure. The propylene 03 contract may oscillate in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2][3] - In the near - term, the trading logic is influenced by the overall loose fundamentals and the weak PP trend, with high enterprise inventories and continuous pressure from PP supply - demand. In the long - term, there are expectations of supply - side production capacity expansion, PP terminal demand falling short of supply growth leading to inventory accumulation, and cost - side pressure due to increased supply. [6][10] - The market is in an oscillating and weakening state, and may experience small rebounds due to some macro - factors, but is expected to maintain a weakening oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and PDH unit maintenance. [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - sentiment and Policy Disturbances**: The recent futures market has been affected by "anti - involution" news, driving some chemical products to rebound at low levels, which should be regarded as a rebound before the improvement of fundamentals. [2] - **Spot Supply - Demand**: The overall supply - demand difference has changed little this week. On the supply side, Guangzhou Petrochemical increased its load, Jinghai Chemical restarted, and Qinghai Salt Lake shut down, with little change in overall production and start - up rates. On the demand side, it increased slightly this week. PP start - up decreased slightly, while the start - up of other downstream products such as propylene oxide decreased slightly and n - butanol increased slightly. In the Shandong market, supply increased and demand decreased, and prices fell under pressure. [2] - **Main Downstream PP Suppression**: PP supply is sufficient, and the price difference with propylene is at a low level. The spot - end price difference is 265 yuan/ton this week, and the main futures - contract price difference is also at a low level. Although the price difference is at a low level, there has been no large - scale PP maintenance, and the price remains weak overall. [2] - **PDH Profit Pressure**: The price of external propane remains strong. The current PDH cost is about 6200 - 6500 yuan/ton, and the industry is in a continuous loss state. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback caused by profit contraction. Although there are rumors of some PDH unit maintenance, the actual implementation needs to be tracked. [3] 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Oscillating and weakening, with the PL03 price range at 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton. The overall market remains oscillating and weakening, may rebound slightly due to some macro - factors, but is expected to maintain a weakening oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and PDH unit maintenance. [15] - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: Oscillating and narrowing. The spot price weakened slightly this week, and the futures oscillated upwards, causing the basis to narrow. Attention should be paid to unit maintenance. [16] - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Expand the PP - PL spread when it is low and wait; expand the PL/PG ratio and wait. The spot - end price difference between PP pellets and propylene is about 265 yuan/ton, and the main futures - contract price difference is 499 yuan/ton. One can enter the market when the price difference is low and pay attention to PP unit maintenance. There are rumors of PDH unit maintenance, so one can expand the PDH profit when the price is low and consider expanding the PP/PL and PG ratio in the domestic market. [16] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Propylene Price Range Forecast**: The price range is predicted to be 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 0.1254 and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years at 0.5277. [17] - **Propylene Hedging Strategy Table** - To prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to their inventory levels to lock in profits. For PL2603, the hedging ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton. [19] - Sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the spot price rises, the selling price can be locked. For PL2603C6000, the hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 60 - 80. [19] - To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising propylene prices, enterprises can buy propylene futures at low prices and lock in procurement costs through futures trading. For PL2603, the hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. [19] - Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the propylene price falls, the spot purchase price can be locked. For PL2603P5500, the hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 40 - 60. [19] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information No information provided in the content. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - On December 31, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. - On December 31, China will release the December PMI. [24] 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The PL03 contract oscillated this week. The net positions of the main profitable seats increased, there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list, the net long positions of the profitable seats decreased slightly, the net long positions of foreign capital decreased slightly, and the net long positions of retail investors increased slightly. Technically, it is still a rebound in a downward trend on the daily chart and may turn into an oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton. [22] - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The propylene 03 basis closed at - 58 yuan/ton this week, compared with - 278 yuan/ton last week. The spot price fell this week, and the futures oscillated upwards. The propylene 02 - 03 calendar spread closed at - 24 yuan/ton, compared with - 44 yuan/ton last week. [26] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Upstream Profit**: The gross profit of major refineries this week was 664 yuan/ton (+50), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 428 yuan/ton (-43). The start - up rate at the cracking end changed little this week. The PDH profit with FEI as the cost was - 346 yuan/ton (-73), and the PDH profit with CP as the cost was - 529 yuan/ton (-44). PDH remained in a loss state. Propane cracking profit declined significantly, and the cracking economy of LPG was inferior to that of naphtha. [28][29][30] - **Mid - stream Profit**: No specific profit data was provided, only some seasonal charts were presented. [31] - **Downstream Profit**: The price difference between PP拉丝 and propylene was 265 yuan/ton (+100), and the price difference between PP powder and propylene was 305 yuan/ton (+200). As the propylene price weakened, the price difference repaired slightly at the low level. The profit of the propylene oxide chlorohydrin method was 533 yuan/ton (+346.5), and the profit was still good. The profit of acrylonitrile was - 1333 yuan/ton (+51), and the overall loss was still large. The profit of acrylic acid was - 178 yuan/ton (-22), and the profit weakened. Currently, there is a divergence between profit and start - up rate, and attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up situation. The profit of n - butanol was 72 yuan/ton (+99), and the overall profit of n - butanol was around the break - even point. The profit of octanol was +580 yuan/ton (+180). As the supply decreased, the profit repaired at the low level. However, the 450,000 - ton unit of Bohua Yongli is expected to start in January, and Jiangsu Huachang is increasing its load. The profit of phenol - acetone was - 938 yuan/ton (-7), and the profit was weak. Currently, PO and butyl - octanol have a little profit, while others are basically in a loss state. [33] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has been stable recently, with CFR China at 740 US dollars (0 change). [47] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in the Shandong Market This week, in the Shandong market, supply increased and demand decreased slightly, and the spot price declined. The increase in supply mainly came from the increased load of PDH and the restart of the Jinghai unit. The decrease in demand came from the maintenance of the Jinneng and Yulong units in the PP sector and the maintenance of some units in the PO and acrylonitrile sectors. [49] 3.5.2 Market Supply - side and Deduction This week, there were both start - ups and shutdowns. The propylene output was 1.2271 million tons (+0.03), and the start - up rate was 74.11% (-0.1%), still at a relatively high level. The 210,000 - ton steam cracking unit of Jinghai Chemical was under maintenance, and the 160,000 - ton MTO unit of Qinghai Salt Lake had a short - term shutdown this week. The estimated decline in Shandong's market output in January mainly includes the expected maintenance of Jinneng. [52][53] 3.5.3 Demand - side and Deduction - **PP**: The price difference between PP pellets and powder and propylene rebounded slightly this week, and the start - up rate of the pellet sector remained stable. The price difference between powder and propylene also rebounded slightly this week but was still at a low level, and maintenance increased. [58][62] - **Propylene Oxide**: This week, Zhonghai Jingxi, Guoen, and Bohua shut down, and Huatai reduced its load. The overall inventory continued to decline, returning to the level of the same period in 2022. [63] - **Acrylonitrile**: This week, Shandong Haijiang started maintenance, with an expected duration of 20 days. [65] - **Butyl - Octanol**: Jilin Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical's units shut down, Zhanjiang BASF and Zhejiang Satellite's units were in normal production, Shandong Luxi's unit maintained a low - load operation, and Jiangsu Shuguang had a 3 - day short - term shutdown. The 450,000 - ton unit of Bohua Yongli is expected to start in January; the 180,000 - ton new unit of Jiangsu Huachang is increasing its load; Shandong Jianlan restarted. [69] - **Acrylic Acid**: Qilu Petrochemical slightly reduced its load this week, and the capacity utilization rate was at a phased high. There is a divergence between start - up and profit. [72] - **Phenol - Acetone**: Moyiwei Chemical reduced its load, and Shandong Fuyu increased its load. [74] - **Shandong Regional Demand**: The regional demand in Shandong increased this week, and the increase mainly came from the restart and increased load of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol. [76]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The tin market is currently under the double pressure of "falsification of supply anxiety" and "negative demand feedback." The previous core logic supporting the tin price to reach 348,000 yuan/ton was the "expectation of raw material shortage," but this logic is weakening. The supply bottleneck is being broken by the recovery of trade flows, while the demand side has a strong rejection reaction due to high prices. The accumulation of social inventory at the end of the peak consumption season falsifies the "shortage" proposition. The decline in photovoltaic module production and weak consumer electronics orders make the downstream demand extremely fragile. As a result, the high - valuation of tin prices has lost its fundamental anchor, and the market logic is switching from "strong expectation" to "weak reality," with a downward trend being the path of least resistance [2]. - In the short - term, with the end of the Christmas holiday and the approaching year - end closing, the willingness of long - position funds to withdraw is stronger than to attack. The spot market is in a "high - price but no - trading" situation. The continuous closure of the import window fails to prevent inventory accumulation, indicating weak domestic demand. Without sudden supply disruptions, the market will be dominated by short - sellers [4]. - Looking forward to Q1 2026, the long - term structural contradiction in the tin market will shift from "mineral shortage" to "mismatch between smelting capacity expansion and demand interruption." Although the current tin ore processing fee in Yunnan is at a historical low, it reflects a stock game. With the expected resumption of production in Myanmar and the supplement of imported ore sources, the supply of refined tin is expected to increase slightly year - on - year in Q1 2026. However, the demand side is weak. If there is no substantial restocking in consumer electronics in Q1 2026, the tin price may face a deep valuation adjustment and return to the cost line [7]. Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures Unilateral**: Short at high prices. The logic is the alleviation of supply anxiety, inventory accumulation, and year - end capital withdrawal. It is recommended to place short orders in the range of 338,000 - 342,000 yuan, with a target price of 325,000 yuan and a stop - loss above the previous high of 348,000 yuan [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Buy put options or use bear spreads. The logic is that volatility may increase as prices fall, and buying out - of - the - money put options can bet on a rapid price correction [12]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Short near - term contracts and long far - term contracts (Contango structure trading). The logic is that domestic inventory is continuously accumulating and the spot is at a discount, so the monthly spread structure may deepen in the direction of Contango [13]. Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 350,000 yuan and sell 25% of SN2602C call options when the volatility is appropriate [14]. - **Raw Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 330,000 yuan and sell 25% of SN2602P put options when the volatility is appropriate [14]. Group 4: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Drivers**: Not provided in the report. - **Negative Information**: Inventory has accumulated, SMM's three - place social inventory has increased to 9,378 tons (weekly increase of 186 tons), and SHFE warehouse receipts have increased to 7,844 tons; demand has declined, with a 12.5% month - on - month decrease in global photovoltaic cell production in December and weak electronic consumption; supply has eased, with a surge in Indonesia's refined tin exports in November and a significant month - on - month increase in China's tin ore imports in November; spot trading is cold, with strong price - aversion sentiment and a "high - price but no - trading" situation [19]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 334,750 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan (- 0.7%); the 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan (150%); the price of 40% tin concentrate is 322,750 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan (- 0.72%); the price of 60% tin concentrate is 326,750 yuan/ton, down 2,350 yuan (- 0.71%); the price of 60A solder bar is 214,250 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan (- 0.46%); the price of 63A solder bar is 223,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan (- 0.67%); the price of lead - free solder is 340,750 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan (- 0.73%) [17]. Next Week's Important Events - **Domestic**: On December 31st, the official manufacturing PMI will be released to verify the changes in the prosperity of the electronics/photovoltaic industry chain. Throughout the week, monitor the change in spot inventory, as whether inventory stops accumulating is the key to a price stop - fall [17]. - **International**: Throughout the week, pay attention to the latest news on the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State (the biggest variable on the supply side) and the change in the proportion of LME inventory cancellation warrants (to check for the outflow of overseas hidden inventory) [20]. Group 5: Disk Interpretation Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Macro Sentiment**: The US has postponed the additional tariffs on Chinese chips for 18 months, and NVIDIA plans to deliver the H200 chip, easing concerns about the technology war [19]. - **Processing Fee at a Low Level**: The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan remains at 12,000 yuan/ton, and that for 60% ore in other regions remains at 8,000 yuan/ton, at a historical low [19]. - **LME Inventory**: LME inventory is 4,895 tons, still at a relatively low level, with only 160 tons in American inventory [19]. Domestic Market - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the weighted tin price contract closed at 338,500 yuan per ton. Currently, profitable positions are mainly long in net positions [22]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread Structure**: This week, the domestic term structure is in a C structure [24]. LME Market - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The LME tin term structure remains in a B structure this week [28]. Internal - External Price Difference Tracking - This week, the internal - external price difference was relatively stable, with narrow fluctuations. The tin import loss is 14,018.67 yuan/ton, down 515.1 yuan (3.81%); the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [30]. Group 6: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The long - term low processing fees have put pressure on smelter profits and suppressed production willingness [32]. Group 7: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection Supply Side and Projection - Although no specific supply projection data is provided, it is mentioned that with the expected resumption of production in Myanmar and the supplement of imported ore sources, the supply of refined tin is expected to increase slightly year - on - year in Q1 2026 [7]. Demand Side and Projection - The demand side is weak. The decline in photovoltaic module production and the continuous weakness of consumer electronics orders make the downstream demand extremely fragile. If there is no substantial restocking in consumer electronics in Q1 2026, the tin price may face a deep valuation adjustment [2][7].

Core Viewpoint - Hengdian Group, known for its film and tourism industry, has diversified into various sectors including electronics and pharmaceuticals, with a total asset exceeding 100 billion yuan and a revenue of 942 billion yuan in 2024 [5][14]. Group 1: Film and Tourism Industry - Hengdian has become the largest film shooting base globally, generating over 35 billion yuan annually from its film and tourism industry [4]. - The company offers free filming locations to attract film crews, resulting in a loss of approximately 20 million yuan annually, but this strategy has significantly boosted the local film service and hospitality industries [8]. - In 2023 and 2024, Hengdian Film City is expected to receive 15.24 million and 13.93 million visitors, with revenues of 2.638 billion yuan and 2.867 billion yuan respectively [9]. Group 2: Business Diversification - Hengdian Group has evolved from a silk factory to a conglomerate with interests in film, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and modern services, holding six publicly listed companies [5][12]. - The electronics sector, particularly magnetic materials, once dominated the market but has seen a decline in market share to around 30% [23]. - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Prolo Pharmaceutical, has been a significant contributor to the group's revenue since its inception [12]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, Hengdian Group reported a revenue of 942 billion yuan, with total assets reaching 1,039.78 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.124 billion yuan [14]. - The group has also ventured into financial services, holding a 4.99% stake in Zheshang Bank and recently listing Nanhua Futures on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [14]. Group 4: Ownership Structure - Hengdian Group operates under a unique corporate structure where ownership is held by community organizations rather than individual shareholders, emphasizing collective wealth creation [21][22]. - The founder, Xu Wenrong, has consistently refused to appear on wealth rankings, asserting that the group's wealth belongs to the collective rather than individuals [16][21]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - The rise of short dramas poses a challenge to traditional film productions, prompting Hengdian to adapt by developing vertical filming spaces [23]. - The group is investing in new projects, including a 12GW battery production facility and the expansion of Hengdian Airport, with total investments in ongoing projects amounting to 11.678 billion yuan [23][24].

南华期货今年以来股价涨60.68%，近5个交易日跌1.35%，近20日跌0.78%，近60日跌7.32%。 今年以来南华期货已经12次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为7月14日，当日龙虎榜净买入-1.18亿 元；买入总计1.47亿元 ，占总成交额比11.65%；卖出总计2.65亿元 ，占总成交额比21.07%。 资料显示，南华期货股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市上城区横店大厦301室、401室、501室、701室、 901室、1001室、1101室、1201室,香港告士打道181-185号中怡商业大厦17楼，成立日期1996年5月28 日，上市日期2019年8月30日，公司主营业务涉及期货经纪业务、财富管理业务、风险管理业务、境外 金融服务业务及期货投资咨询业务等。主营业务收入构成为：风险管理业务50.19%，境外金融服务业 务29.70%，期货经纪业务17.32%，财富管理业务2.51%，其他业务0.28%。 12月26日，南华期货盘中下跌2.01%，截至14:09，报19.00元/股，成交1.11亿元，换手率0.94%，总市值 136.37亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1649.67万元，特大单买入0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The international spot gold price reached a record high of $4,531.284 per ounce on December 26, 2023, following a strong upward trend that began on December 25 [1] - As of the latest update, spot gold has slightly retreated to $4,502.44 per ounce, reflecting a 0.51% increase [2] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: the Federal Reserve's resumption of a loose monetary policy, a decline in the credibility of the US dollar, and escalating global geopolitical risks [4] Group 2: Silver Market Insights - Spot silver prices also saw significant increases, reaching a high of $75.142 per ounce, with the latest price at $74.584 per ounce, marking a 3.86% rise [1][2] - The silver market is characterized by its smaller scale and sensitivity to industrial demand, with current conditions indicating a tight physical market [5] - A critical indicator, the one-year silver swap rate minus US interest rates, has plummeted to -7.18%, suggesting a premium for immediate physical silver delivery over future contracts, indicating a potential "run" on the physical silver market [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of precious metal futures, particularly platinum futures hitting the limit up, and silver prices surging by 8% [1][2] - The report from Nanhua Futures indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing limited supply, shallow inventory, and strong demand from investment and allocation, driven by global competition for pricing and inventory [1][2] - Geopolitical complexities are boosting the demand for precious metals as a safe haven and for inflation hedging [1][2] Group 2 - The silver market is characterized by a smaller scale, rigid industrial demand, and a tight spot market, making prices highly sensitive to increased investment and speculative demand [1][2] - Future attention should be given to the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman and how data may influence monetary policy expectations [1][2] - In the short term, gold remains strong after breaking previous highs, while silver exhibits high volatility, indicating significant price risks [1][2]