Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and will enter the de - stocking process. The supply pressure will be released with the implementation of production plans in the southwest during the wet season, while the downstream demand is expected to strengthen. The price will show a wide - range oscillation. Strategies include focusing on SI2509 - SI2511 positive spread opportunities and the chance of going long on near - month industrial silicon and shorting far - month polysilicon [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where fundamental logic and "anti - involution" logic alternate. Fundamentally, lower production costs may lead to increased production capacity, while demand growth is limited, and inventory pressure remains high. If industry integration is effective, it may drive up prices. The recommended strategy is to focus on PS2508 - PS2511 positive spread opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8470 yuan/ton, up 4.05% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,468,586 lots, up 27.32%; the open interest is 381,237 lots, down 4.46% [11]. - The SI09 - 11 spread is 70 yuan/ton, up 27.27% from the previous period; the SI11 - 12 spread is - 265 yuan/ton, up 14.52% [15]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of 553 silicon in different regions range from 8200 - 8750 yuan/ton, with some showing price increases. The price of 421 silicon in different regions ranges from 8950 - 9900 yuan/ton, mostly stable. The spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [17]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total warehouse receipts are 50,544 lots, down 248 lots from the previous period. The inventory in different delivery warehouses shows little change, except for Sichuan and Jiangsu which have slight increases [23][24]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 41,345 yuan/ton, up 5.28% from the previous period; the trading volume is 1,014,567 lots, up 27.70%; the open interest is 98,601 lots, up 1.45% [26]. - The PS08 - 09 spread is 300 yuan/ton, down 25.00% from the previous period; the PS08 - 11 spread is 800 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the PS09 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton, up 21.95%; the PS11 - 12 spread is - 2325 yuan/ton, up 8.90% [28]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of different types of polysilicon show some changes, with N - type polysilicon price index rising 12.00% to 44.8 yuan/kg. The prices of silicon wafers and battery chips also have certain fluctuations [33][35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data** - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 3455 yuan/ton, up 373.29% from the previous period. The warehouse receipts in different regions remain unchanged [40][42]. 4. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of inventory impairment, strategies include shorting futures on the main contract, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include buying long - term futures contracts according to production plans, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of the Shanghai Composite Index, which briefly surpassed 3500 points on July 9, 2024, before closing at 3493.05 points, a decrease of 0.13%. This marks the first time the index has crossed this threshold in approximately eight months [1]. Industry Performance - The multi-financial sector played a significant role in the index's performance, achieving a 2.75% increase on July 9, 2024, and leading the industry in gains over the past three trading days with a total increase of 7.65%. Notable companies in this sector include Yuexiu Capital and Nanhua Futures, both of which reached their daily limit up [1]. - Multi-financial companies typically engage in activities outside of traditional banking and securities, including futures, leasing, and trust services. Key players in this sector include Yong'an Futures, Nanhua Futures, Bohai Leasing, and various financial holding companies [1]. Market Drivers - The recent activity in the multi-financial sector is attributed to a favorable macroeconomic environment and accelerated financial innovations, such as stablecoins. The trend towards the compliance of virtual assets is expected to activate and reshape the entire non-bank financial industry chain, with a collaborative ecosystem for digital asset issuance, circulation, management, and application rapidly taking shape [1].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in demand for hedging has led to a significant increase in trading activity in the futures market, driven by multiple factors including trade policy uncertainty, rising U.S. debt risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Trading Activity - In June, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 740 million contracts and a turnover of 52.79 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 28.91% and 17.25% respectively [1]. - For the first half of the year, the cumulative trading volume reached 4.076 billion contracts with a turnover of 339.73 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 17.82% and 20.68% [1]. Factors Driving Activity - Increased trade friction has disrupted global commodity expectations, particularly in agricultural and energy sectors, leading to heightened hedging and speculative activities [1]. - The rise in U.S. debt risks has spread a risk-averse sentiment, making government bond futures and precious metals futures key asset allocation tools [1]. - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated instability in the energy and chemical sectors, further driving the "hedging + speculation" trading logic [1]. Market Innovations - The deepening reforms and innovations in the futures market have also contributed to active trading, with the introduction of new products and relaxed regulations for international participants [2]. - The trading volume of gold and oil has become a focal point, with gold and gold options seeing increases of 80.35% and 128.36% respectively in the first half of the year [2]. Future Outlook - The overall trading activity in the futures market is expected to remain high in the second half of the year, driven by continuous investor expansion and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4]. - However, the growth rate may slow down, and there will be increased differentiation among trading varieties due to potential easing of geopolitical conflicts [4]. Specific Commodity Insights - Analysts remain optimistic about the gold futures market, expecting continued high trading volumes due to persistent global uncertainties and the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies [5][6]. - The container shipping index futures have recently rebounded, although the overall market remains under pressure from high supply and trade policy risks [6].

证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-048 南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票于 2025 年 7 月 9 日、7 月 10 日连续两个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到 20%，根据《上海证 券交易所交易规则》的相关规定，属于股票交易异常波动情形。公司特别提醒广 大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 经公司自查并书面问询公司控股股东、实际控制人，截止本公告披露日， 不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。 请广大投资者注意投资风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 一、股票交易异常波动的具体情况 公司股票于 2025 年 7 月 9 日、7 月 10 日连续两个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅 偏离值累计达到 20%，根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的相关规定，属于股票 交易异常波动情形。 二、公司关注并核实的相关情况 南华期货股份有限公司股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： （四）其他股价敏感信息 经公司核实，未发现公司董事、监事、高级管理人员、控股股东 ...

南华期货股份有限公司: 本公司于205 年 7 月 /2 日收到贵司发出的《南华期货股份有限 公司股票交易异常波动问询函》,经认真自查核实,现就相关情况回 复如下: 截至本函发出之时,作为南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"南 华期货")的控股股东,除贵公司已披露事项外,不存在影响南华期 货股票交易异常波动的重大事项,不存在其他涉及南华期货应披露而 未披露的重大信息,不存在股票交易异常波动期间买卖南华期货股票 的情形。 关于对《南华期货股份有限公司股票交易 异常波动问询函》的回复 南华期货股份有限公司: 本会已于2005年 / 月 / 日收到贵司发出的《南华期货股份有限 公司股票交易异常波动问询函》,经认真自查核实,现就相关情况回 复如下: 截至本函发出之时,作为南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"南 华期货")的实际控制人,除贵公司已披露事项外,不存在影响南华 期货股票交易异常波动的重大事项,不存在其他涉及南华期货应披露 而未披露的重大信息,不存在股票交易异常波动期间买卖南华期货股 票的情形。 特此回复 实际控制人:东阳市 /联合会 20V 年 关于对《南华期货股份有限公司股票交易 异常波动问询函》的回复 特此回复 ...

A股大金融板块午后走高，券商、多元金融、银行、保险等概念涨幅扩大；中银证券、南华期货双双涨 停，红塔证券、民生银行、中油资本、翠微股份、哈投股份等个股跟涨。 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.36% as of the morning close, with a trading volume of 783.11 million shares and a transaction amount of 934.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, banking, and oil & petrochemicals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 1.53%, 1.42%, and 1.23% respectively [1] - The automotive, defense, and electronics sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 0.93%, 0.92%, and 0.76% respectively [2] Leading Stocks - In the real estate sector, Yuhua Development led with a gain of 9.94% [1] - In the banking sector, Minsheng Bank rose by 5.12% [1] - In the oil & petrochemicals sector, *ST Xinchao increased by 5.08% [1] - In the steel sector, Jinling Mining surged by 10.02% [1] - In the non-bank financial sector, Nanhua Futures also rose by 10.02% [1] - In the pharmaceutical sector, Qianyuan Pharmaceutical saw a significant increase of 19.98% [1] Sector Summary - The real estate sector had a transaction amount of 117.03 billion yuan, up 26.74% from the previous day [1] - The banking sector recorded a transaction amount of 266.82 billion yuan, up 36.61% [1] - The oil & petrochemicals sector had a transaction amount of 80.95 billion yuan, up 36.47% [1] - The automotive sector had a transaction amount of 389.36 billion yuan, down 16.50% [2] - The defense sector recorded a transaction amount of 316.85 billion yuan, down 23.79% [2] - The electronics sector had a transaction amount of 1,036.63 billion yuan, down 10.88% [2]

南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年7月10日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： 重要新闻： 基本面保持稳定。 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78400 | 73000-80000 | 11.41% | 21.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2509C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上 ...

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年7月10日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 262890 | 245000-263000 | 11.52% | 16.4% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） 重要新闻： 基本面保持稳定。 利多因素： 1. 中美关税政策缓和。 2. 半导体板块仍处于扩张周期。 3. 缅甸复产不及预期。 利空因素： 1. 关税政策反复。 2. 缅甸复产。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | ...

南华贵金属日报: 金震银跌 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月10日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场金震银调，周边资产看，美指震荡偏弱，美债收益率明显下降，美股和比特币上涨，原油 震荡，南华有色金属回落。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3322.5美元/盎司，+0.17%；美白银2509合约收 报于36.605美元/盎司，-0.39%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约收报766.82元/克，-1%；SHFE白银2510合约收 8899元/千克，-0.2%。周四凌晨公布的6月美联储fomc会议纪要凸显官员们针对降息前景的分歧加大，纪要 显示，多数官员认为关税或持续推高通胀，少数官员愿意下次会议考虑降息，分歧原因一方面在关税政策自 身不确定性与对通胀影响不确定，另一方在于政府对美联储降息施压动摇部分官员立场。因此对贵金属而 言，或走关税贸易战升级下的避险逻辑，或走关税担忧缓和下的降息增强逻辑。我们维持对贵金属逢低买入 思路。贸易关税方面，特朗普征税函第二波指向八国，其中对巴西征税50%为迄今最高。 【降息预期与基金持仓 】 降息预期总体略有增强 ...