1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include cost support with receding geopolitical sentiment, improved supply - demand situation of downstream PP but still with pressure, and expected supply contraction due to increased PDH maintenance. The propylene 03 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2][3]. - In the near - term, the propylene futures price increase is influenced by cost and supply - demand factors. Overseas propane remains strong, PDH maintenance increases, and the fundamentals of downstream PP improve marginally. In the long - term, there are expectations of propylene capacity expansion, PP over - supply pressure, and cost pressure from increased supply of crude oil and LPG [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost support: Geopolitical disputes after the festival brought risk premiums to crude oil and supported propane prices. Iran exported an average of 960,000 tons of LPG per month in 2025, with about 80% going to China. Although the geopolitical situation cooled down at the end of the week, the impact still remains [2]. - Supply - demand of downstream PP: The PP operating rate this week was 75.62%, slightly down from the previous high of nearly 80%. Spot trading improved marginally, but overall, supply - demand pressure still exists [2]. - Supply contraction: Nationally, the supply - demand gap was still loose, but in the Shandong market, the gap narrowed due to maintenance at Jinneng and Wanhua, leading to a stronger spot price. With continuous PDH losses, more maintenance is expected, and attention should be paid to potential load - reduction of cracking units due to naphtha consumption tax issues [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The market is expected to fluctuate and rise. The price range for PL03 is 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The unilateral strategy is to buy at low prices, as it is affected by cost and supply - demand. PDH maintenance provides stronger support, but the price may correct with the decline of crude oil risk premiums [15]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis strategy is to expect the spread to widen. The spot price is strengthening due to supply - demand gap contraction, while the futures price may correct with the decline of geopolitical risks. For the PP - PL spread and PL/PG ratio, it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - For inventory management, if the finished product inventory is high, enterprises can short - sell propylene futures at high prices to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, if the inventory is low, enterprises can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Tensions in Iran and low PG shipments from the Middle East supported CP prices. Poor PDH profits led to increased maintenance of PDH units this week [19]. - **Negative information**: The long - term trading theme in the crude oil market may be oversupply, and the suspension of US military action against Iran led to a decline in risk premiums [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - January 19: China's Q4 GDP; January 20: China's LPR; January 22: US PCE index [21]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - The PL03 contract fluctuated and rose this week. The net positions of major profitable seats increased, with no significant changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. Foreign investors slightly reduced their net long positions, and retail investors slightly increased their net long positions. Technically, it shows an upward trend but may face short - term correction pressure [23]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The propylene 03 basis was 95 yuan/ton this week, with the spot price rising steadily and the futures price fluctuating. The 02 - 03 calendar spread was - 97 yuan/ton, compared with - 7 yuan/ton last week. The 03 contract had a larger increase, and the calendar spread showed a reverse arbitrage trend [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits - The gross profit of major refineries this week was 762 yuan/ton (+85), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 280 yuan/ton (-89). The cracking end declined slightly, and Fujian Refining had a short - term shutdown [28]. 3.4.2 Mid - stream Profits - Propane cracking profit fluctuated at a low level, and LPG cracking was less economical than naphtha. The PDH profit based on FEI was 88 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit based on CP was - 218 yuan/ton [30]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profits - The spread between PP raffia and propylene was 305 yuan/ton, and the spread between PP powder and propylene was 285 yuan/ton, both slightly narrowing. Epoxy propane chlorohydrin method profit was 323 yuan/ton. Acrylonitrile had a large loss of - 2,362 yuan/ton. Acrylic acid profit was - 415 yuan/ton, and its profit was weakening. Butanol and octanol had profits, while phenol - acetone had a loss of - 1,026 yuan/ton [33]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Profits - The Sino - Korean propylene spread remained stable recently, with CFR China at 785 US dollars (+35) [46]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Forecast 3.5.1 Shandong Market Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - In the Shandong market this week, supply decreased and demand increased. The supply - demand gap narrowed due to maintenance at Jinneng and Wanhua [50]. 3.5.2 Market Supply and Forecast - Due to maintenance of some units this week, propylene production was 1.2315 million tons (-10,500 tons), and the operating rate was 75.23% (-0.72%). PDH, MTO, and steam cracking units all had maintenance situations [53]. 3.5.3 Demand and Forecast - **PP**: The spread between PP pellets/powder and propylene slightly rebounded, and the pellet operating rate slightly decreased. Some PP units had maintenance or production - switching, and the operating rate continued to decline, but the spread has returned to the normal range [65][70]. - **Epoxy propane**: The overall load of epoxy propane slightly decreased but remained at a high level, with some enterprises having short - term shutdowns or load - reduction [71]. - **Acrylonitrile**: There were no significant changes this week [73]. - **Butanol and octanol**: The butanol operating rate increased by 4% due to increased loads at some enterprises. The 450,000 - ton unit of Bohua Yongli is expected to start trial production in February, and Shandong Jianlan is operating normally with a 70,000 - ton unit at a low load [79][81]. - **Acrylic acid**: The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate decreased but remained at a high level, and there was a divergence between production and profit [82]. - **Phenol - acetone**: Some enterprises increased their loads, while Wanhua decreased its load [84]. - **Shandong regional demand**: Demand in the Shandong region increased this week, mainly due to the resumption and increased loads of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [85].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the evolution and diversified business model of Hengdian Group, emphasizing its significant contributions to the film and tourism industry while also noting its substantial revenue from other sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals [4][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hengdian Group has transformed from a local silk factory established in 1975 into a large conglomerate with total assets exceeding 100 billion yuan, spanning industries such as film and tourism, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and modern services [4][9][10]. - The founder, Xu Wenrong, and his son, Xu Yong'an, are described as low-profile billionaires, with the company’s wealth being attributed to collective efforts rather than individual ownership [11][12]. Group 2: Film and Tourism Industry - Hengdian has developed into the world's largest film shooting base, generating over 35 billion yuan annually from its film and tourism sectors, although this only accounts for less than 10% of the group's total revenue [4][5]. - The group offers free filming locations to attract film crews, resulting in a loss of approximately 20 million yuan annually, but this strategy has significantly boosted the local film industry and related services [5][6]. - In 2023 and 2024, Hengdian Film City is projected to receive 15.24 million and 13.93 million visitors, generating revenues of 2.638 billion yuan and 2.867 billion yuan, respectively [7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Hengdian Group reported revenues of 94.2 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, with net profits reaching 3.124 billion yuan [9][10]. - Hengdian Film, the group's only publicly listed company, generated 1.971 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, with nearly 90% coming from cinema operations [7]. Group 4: Challenges and Adaptations - The company faces challenges such as declining market share in the magnetic materials sector and competition from short video formats in the film industry [14][15]. - Hengdian is adapting by investing in new projects, including a 12GW new energy battery project and expanding its airport facilities, with total investments in ongoing projects amounting to 11.678 billion yuan [14][15]. Group 5: Community Impact - The transformation of Hengdian from a small town with low income to a renowned "Oriental Hollywood" has significantly increased local residents' average annual income to 70,000 yuan [16].

证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2026-001 南华期货股份有限公司 关于稳定价格期结束及超额配售权失效的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2026 年 1 月 17 日 本次发行有关全球发售的稳定价格期已于 2026 年 1 月 16 日（星期五）（即 递交香港公开发售申请截止日期后第 30 日）结束。稳定价格操作人中信里昂证 券有限公司、其联属人士或代其行事的任何人士于稳定价格期内未采取任何稳定 价格行动。 二、超额配售权失效 整体协调人（为其本身及代表国际承销商）并未在稳定价格期间行使超额配 售权，故超额配售权已于 2026 年 1 月 16 日（星期五）失效。本次超额配售权失 效前后的公司股份无变动，具体如下： | 股东类别 | 股份数目（股） | 占已发行股份（%） | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股 | 610,065,893 | 85% | | H 股 | 107,659,000 | 15% | | 股份总数 | 717,724,893 | 100% ...

Group 1 - The global offering's stabilization period for Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. (02691.HK) will end on January 16, 2026, which is the 30th day after the submission deadline for the Hong Kong public offering application [1] - The overallotment option will expire on January 16, 2026, meaning the company will not issue H-shares based on the overallotment option [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures Co., Ltd. announced that the global offering's stabilization period will end on January 16, 2026, which is 30 days after the deadline for submitting the application for public offering in Hong Kong [1] Group 1 - There was no over-allotment of H shares in the international offering, leading to the overall coordinator, representing international underwriters, not exercising the over-allotment option during the stabilization period [1] - The stabilization agent and its affiliates did not take any stabilization actions regarding the global offering during the stabilization period [1] - The over-allotment option will expire on January 16, 2026, and the company will not issue H shares based on this option [1]

Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 2.57% on January 15, with Lakala leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable performers in the diversified financial sector included: - Sichuan Shuangma (Code: 000935) with a closing price of 27.97, up 1.75% and a trading volume of 74,200 shares [1] - Bohai Leasing (Code: 000415) closed at 4.05, up 0.75% with a trading volume of 993,700 shares [1] - Jiuding Investment (Code: 600053) closed at 21.00, up 0.67% with a trading volume of 87,000 shares [1] - Conversely, Lakala (Code: 300773) saw a significant drop of 5.92%, closing at 30.18 with a trading volume of 1,582,000 shares and a transaction value of 4.804 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 1.764 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 1.092 billion [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed: - Bohai Leasing had a net inflow of 41.08 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 33.48 million from retail investors [3] - Jiuding Investment had a net inflow of 17.84 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 14.78 million from retail investors [3] - Sichuan Shuangma had a net inflow of 4.18 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 589.49 thousand from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc futures on the Shanghai market showed a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 25,130.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.20% [1] Market Data Summary - As of January 14, LME zinc inventory stood at 106,725 tons, a decrease of 175 tons, with registered warrants at 97,875 tons and canceled warrants at 8,850 tons, representing 8.29% of the total [2] - On January 14, the top 20 futures companies in Shanghai held a total long position of 147,100 contracts and a short position of 141,800 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.04. The net position increased by 477 contracts compared to the previous day, totaling 5,341 contracts [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a zinc warehouse receipt of 33,262 tons on January 14, down 351 tons from the previous trading day. Over the past week, the total decline in warehouse receipts was 7,657 tons, a decrease of 18.71%, and over the past month, the decline was 17,441 tons, a decrease of 34.40% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures noted that macro sentiment impact is weakening, with upstream raw material supply tightening and zinc smelting supply reducing. As the holiday approaches, downstream zinc operating rates are gradually declining, leading to rigid consumption sentiment in the high-priced zinc market. The rebalancing of domestic and international inventories may reopen the import window, potentially supplementing domestic supply. The basic supply-demand reality is weak, suggesting a short-term high-level oscillation, with a reference price range for the main Shanghai zinc contract between 23,000 and 24,500 CNY/ton [4] - Nanhua Futures indicated that the TC in January continues to decline, with the core issue being the tight domestic raw material supply. However, due to rising by-product prices, zinc smelting can maintain production at lower processing fees, keeping January output at a high level. From a long-term perspective, supply is expected to be loose, with the import window likely to open as LME continues to deliver. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream terminal consumption. Domestic inventory reduction supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory has surpassed 100,000 tons. Looking ahead, while the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc have potential for bullish sentiment, there is significant hedging pressure above, maintaining a view of strong oscillation [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the lithium carbonate market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating and showing weakness in performance [1][2] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened at 163,840.0 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 165,000.0 yuan and a minimum of 156,180.0 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4.16% [1] - Market sentiment has diverged recently, influenced by policy benefits and expectations for energy storage demand, but profit-taking and weak fundamentals have led to a market adjustment phase [2] Group 2 - Demand for energy storage batteries has increased by 0.99% month-on-month, but there is a notable decline in the production of power batteries as the market enters a low season [2] - Inventory pressure is becoming evident, with an expected accumulation of over 5,000 tons in January [2] - Despite short-term supply and demand weakening, medium-term support is anticipated from policy tightening, high growth in energy storage demand, and increased processing fees [2] Group 3 - The current high volatility of lithium carbonate futures indicates significant market trading risks, and the sustainability of continued price increases remains uncertain [3] - There is a strong demand for spot purchases of lithium carbonate ahead of the Spring Festival, suggesting that the industry may exhibit "not dull in the off-season" characteristics [3] - Investors are advised to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for market risks to be fully released before considering low-price entry opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices experienced a surge followed by a decline, maintaining a strong performance in the night session, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The release of the U.S. CPI data has led to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts, despite officials indicating that current data does not support such actions [1] Supply Dynamics - There are ongoing concerns regarding the underperformance of tin production in Myanmar and the challenges faced by Indonesia in maintaining high export levels [1] Short-term Outlook - Attention is required on the upcoming export data from Indonesian exchanges, as well as the impact of pre-Spring Festival inventory accumulation and downstream feedback [1] - The expectation is that tin prices may still have upward momentum under a bullish trend, with a focus on buying on dips [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a detailed analysis of the soybean weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, including sowing progress, growth stages, and potential impacts of rainfall on yields [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - Overall sowing progress reached 98.2%, with most crops in the reproductive growth stage, 32.8% in the flowering stage, 41.3% in the filling stage, 23.1% mature, and 0.53% in the harvest stage, leading last year by 0.05% [1][16] - In Mato Grosso state, the harvest has begun with a progress of 1.98%, faster than last year's 0.7% and the five - year average of 1.09%, but less rainfall may affect unharvested yields [1][16] - In Mato Grosso do Sul state, crop physiological development is normal, but effective rainfall is needed in the east and southwest. 85.7% of the farmland is in "good" condition [1][16] - In Goias state, sowing is completed, climate conditions are favorable, and areas sown at the beginning of the sowing window have entered the maturity stage, with harvesting即将开始 [1][16] - In Minas Gerais state, regular rainfall and temperature differences are beneficial for oilseed crop growth, but hail in the northwest damaged some crops [1][17] - In Rio Grande do Sul state, rainfall maintains good soil moisture, but crops sown in low - lying areas show signs of rust, partially affecting yields [1][17] - In Parana state, the western part has started harvesting, and rainfall is beneficial for crop growth [1][17] Argentina - Soybean sowing progress increased 6.3% week - on - week to 88.3%, about 10% behind the previous year [2][37] - Nearly 100% of the crops in the current production area are in excellent or good condition, and 99% have suitable moisture conditions [2][37] - 10% of the first - sown soybean area has entered the flowering stage, and 40% are gradually entering the key reproductive water - demanding period. The second - season soybean sowing area is 84% complete, mostly in the vegetative growth stage [2][37] - Less rainfall in the next two weeks may affect soil moisture in some areas [2] International Soybean Annual Focus Points - Different months have different focus points, such as US soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [56] Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Different growth stages (planting, flowering, growing, harvesting) have different temperature, moisture requirements, and disaster risks [64]