Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baolong Technology (603197) [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance met expectations with significant quarter-over-quarter recovery in net profit [1] - Net profit margin rebounded quarter-over-quarter while expense ratio continued to decline [2] - Air suspension and sensor businesses maintained rapid growth [3] - Traditional business market share steadily increased with improving overseas operations [4] Financial Performance Q3 2024 Results - Revenue: 5.026 billion yuan (+21% YoY) [1] - Net profit: 249 million yuan (-26.6% YoY) [1] - Gross margin: 26.2% (-1.7pp YoY) [1] - Net margin: 5.3% (-2.9pp YoY) [1] Q3 2024 Highlights - Revenue: 1.843 billion yuan (+19.8% YoY, +8.3% QoQ) [1] - Net profit: 100 million yuan (-35.2% YoY, +24.9% QoQ) [1] - Gross margin: 24.6% (-3.6pp YoY, -0.5pp QoQ) [2] - Net margin: 5.8% (-3.9pp YoY, +0.6pp QoQ) [2] - Expense ratio: 17.8% (+0.1pp YoY, -1.7pp QoQ) [2] Business Segments Air Suspension - H1 2024 revenue: 420 million yuan (+44.5% YoY) [3] - Low penetration rate with growth potential [3] - Strong R&D experience and first-mover advantage in air spring products [3] Sensors - H1 2024 revenue: 310 million yuan (+51.7% YoY) [3] - Product categories include pressure, optical, position, speed, acceleration, and current sensors [3] Traditional Business - TPMS revenue: 990 million yuan (+19.7% YoY) [4] - Overseas operations: 24.43 million yuan net profit (+390% YoY) [4] - Metal pipe revenue: 750 million yuan (+8.4% YoY) [4] - Valve stem revenue: 380 million yuan (+5.1% YoY) [4] Financial Forecast 2024-2026 Projections - EPS: 1.87/2.65/3.56 yuan [4] - PE: 21/15/11x [4] - Net profit CAGR: 25.9% [4] Key Financial Metrics - Revenue growth: 21.62%/25.32%/22.59% [5] - Net profit growth: 4.76%/41.56%/34.45% [5] - ROE: 11.50%/14.43%/16.86% [5] - PB: 2.79/2.59/2.28/1.96 [5] Valuation - Current price: 38.79 yuan [1] - 52-week price range: 26.86-66.15 yuan [6] - Market cap: 8.226 billion yuan [6] - Total assets: 9.634 billion yuan [6] - Net assets per share: 14.60 yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has a leading global market share in its mature business, with a robust order backlog in emerging sectors. The profit forecast remains unchanged, expecting net profits of 386 million yuan, 496 million yuan, and 647 million yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.82 yuan, 2.34 yuan, and 3.05 yuan, resulting in PE ratios of 21X, 16X, and 13X based on the closing price on October 31, 2024 [5] - The company plans to increase its investment in Shanghai Bobang to strengthen its cooperation in the air compressor sector. The air suspension business has established a strong market position in China, with ongoing expansions into electric control dampers and closed systems, enhancing the self-manufacturing rate of components [5] - The company has secured project approvals from various clients, including a well-known European OEM, marking a significant breakthrough in overseas expansion for its air suspension business [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 100 million yuan, a decrease of 35% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 5.026 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year, with a net profit of 249 million yuan, down 27% year-on-year [10] - The company's main revenue and profit figures for the years 2021 to 2026 are as follows: - Main revenue (million yuan): 3898 (2021), 4778 (2022), 5897 (2023), 7245 (2024E), 9298 (2025E), 11838 (2026E) - Net profit (million yuan): 268 (2021), 214 (2022), 379 (2023), 386 (2024E), 496 (2025E), 647 (2026E) - EPS (yuan): 1.27 (2021), 1.01 (2022), 1.79 (2023), 1.82 (2024E), 2.34 (2025E), 3.05 (2026E) [6][10]

Investment Rating - Buy | Maintain [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue continued to grow significantly, reaching RMB 1.843 billion (yoy +19.75%, qoq +8.34%), driven by the rapid expansion of emerging businesses such as air suspension and sensors, while maintaining its core businesses like TPMS, valve stems, and automotive metal pipes [2] - Despite the revenue growth, profitability was under short-term pressure, with Q3 2024 gross margin at 24.60% (yoy -3.55pcts, qoq -0.48pcts) and net margin at 5.78% (yoy -3.93pcts, qoq +0.54pcts). The decline in profitability was attributed to higher equity incentive expenses and lower investment income compared to the same period last year [2] - The company has secured multiple air suspension projects, including 23 air spring damper assembly projects, 5 suspension controller projects, and 48 air tank projects, indicating strong growth potential in this segment [3] - The company plans to raise up to RMB 1.39 billion to expand its air suspension system manufacturing capacity, which is expected to further accelerate the growth of its air suspension business [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue: RMB 1.843 billion (yoy +19.75%, qoq +8.34%) [2] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 100 million (yoy -35.21%, qoq +24.87%) [2] - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: RMB 5.026 billion (yoy +20.96%) [2] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: RMB 249 million (yoy -26.62%) [2] Future Projections - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: RMB 7.145 billion, RMB 8.636 billion, and RMB 10.635 billion, respectively [4] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: RMB 397 million, RMB 512 million, and RMB 676 million, respectively [4] - Expected EPS for 2024-2026: RMB 1.87, RMB 2.41, and RMB 3.19, respectively [4] - Expected PE ratios for 2024-2026: 21.32x, 16.54x, and 12.52x, respectively [4] Business Highlights - The company has secured 10 OEMs for 23 air spring damper assembly projects, 2 OEMs for 5 suspension controller projects, and 17 OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers for 48 air tank projects, indicating strong market demand for its air suspension products [3] - The company's air suspension business is expected to benefit from the rapid penetration of air suspension systems in new energy vehicles, with capacity expansion plans in place to meet growing demand [3] Financial Ratios and Metrics - Q3 2024 sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios: 3.09%/5.91%/7.92%/0.87% (yoy +1.01/-0.32/+0.45/-1.02pcts, qoq -0.61/-0.61/-0.31/-0.25pcts) [2] - Expected gross margin for 2024-2026: 26.09%, 26.29%, and 26.24%, respectively [10] - Expected net margin for 2024-2026: 5.56%, 5.93%, and 6.36%, respectively [10] - Expected ROE for 2024-2026: 12.22%, 12.91%, and 13.95%, respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.026 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.0%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.6% to 249 million yuan [5][6]. - The third quarter of 2024 showed a significant sequential growth in net profit, with a 71.2% increase in the net profit excluding non-recurring items, indicating an initial sign of a performance turnaround [5][6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 24.6%, slightly down from the previous quarter, influenced by the appreciation of the yuan and changes in business structure [5][6]. - The company has secured multiple new business contracts, enhancing its global presence and growth potential, particularly in the air suspension and sensor segments [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.843 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.7% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. The net profit for the same quarter was 100 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 35.2% but a year-on-year increase of 24.9% [5][6]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 7.074 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.0% [6]. Profitability Metrics - The report forecasts net profits of 408 million yuan for 2024, with a projected growth rate of 7.6% [6]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.0% in 2024 to 18.7% by 2026 [6]. Business Development - The company has made significant strides in expanding its new business lines, including air suspension and sensors, which are expected to replicate the growth trajectory of its traditional business [5][6]. - The establishment of a production facility in Hungary is anticipated to enhance production capacity and support global expansion efforts [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [3]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in performance, with a clear turning point in profitability. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 5.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.96%, while the net profit was 2.49 billion yuan, down 26.62% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights the growth in the air suspension and automotive sensor businesses, which are expected to drive future revenue growth. The air suspension business has received recognition from major clients, and the automotive sensor segment is poised for rapid development [1][2]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 7.05 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20%. The net profit is expected to be 393 million yuan, reflecting a modest growth of 4% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022 was 4.778 billion yuan, increasing to 5.897 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 7.05 billion yuan in 2024 and 8.879 billion yuan in 2025 [1]. - Net profit for 2022 was 214 million yuan, rising to 378 million yuan in 2023, with an expected 393 million yuan in 2024 and 559 million yuan in 2025 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) increased from 1.01 yuan in 2022 to 1.79 yuan in 2023, with projections of 1.85 yuan in 2024 and 2.63 yuan in 2025 [1]. Business Segments - The air suspension business has been a significant contributor, with revenue growth driven by new product development and successful client acquisition [1]. - The automotive sensor segment is expected to experience rapid growth, with various types of sensors being developed and recognized in the market [1]. Market Position - The company has established a strong position in the air suspension industry, with a comprehensive technology system covering multiple product lines [1]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to adapt and grow in response to market demands, particularly in the context of increasing automotive electronic integration [1].

证券代码：603197 证券简称：保隆科技 公告编号：2024-113 上海保隆汽车科技股份有限公司 向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券 网上中签率及优先配售结果公告 保荐人（联席主承销商）：长城证券股份有限公司 联席主承销商：信达证券股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 类别 | 中签率/配 售比例 | 有效申购数量 | 实际配售数 | 实际获配金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （%） | （手） | 量（手） | （元） | | 原股东 | 100 | 929,812 | 929,812 | 929,812,000 | | 网上社会公众投 资者 | 0.00558023 | 8,246,749,469 | 460,188 | 460,188,000 | | 网下机构投资者 | - | - | - | - | | 合计 | | 8,247,679,281 | 1,390,000 | 1,390,000,000 | 特别提示 上海保隆汽车科 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7][5]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in Q3, achieving revenue of 1.843 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.34% [1]. - The company is expanding its air suspension business into overseas markets, with recent breakthroughs in securing projects with European clients [2]. - The company has optimized its expense management, leading to improved profitability despite a decrease in net profit year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company reported a net profit of 100 million RMB, down 35.21% year-on-year but up 24.87% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with previous performance expectations [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.026 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.96%, while net profit was 249 million RMB, down 26.62% year-on-year [1]. Business Development - The air suspension segment is entering a high-growth phase, with the company securing five new air suspension projects in September and October, expected to contribute an annual revenue increment of approximately 440 million RMB once in mass production [2]. - The company is enhancing its self-manufacturing capabilities for core components of air suspension products, which is anticipated to reduce costs and strengthen its competitive advantage [2]. Expense Management - The company has optimized its expense management, with a sales expense ratio of 3.08% and a management expense ratio of 5.89% in Q3, showing improvements compared to previous quarters [3]. - The financial expense ratio decreased to 0.87%, indicating potential for reduced interest expenses following the successful issuance of convertible bonds [3]. Growth Prospects - The company is actively developing new business areas such as ADAS and lightweight components, with several projects already secured for production [4]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 406 million RMB, 606 million RMB, and 760 million RMB, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 38.79 yuan on October 30, 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20/14/10 for the years 2024-2026 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 18.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.75%, driven by strong sales from key clients, particularly Ideal Automotive, which delivered 152,800 vehicles, up 45.40% year-on-year [2]. - The company is experiencing robust growth in emerging businesses, particularly in the sensor and air suspension sectors, with significant new orders and project acquisitions [2]. - The approval of a convertible bond issuance of up to 1.39 billion yuan will support the expansion of the air suspension business, which has already seen a revenue increase of 44.48% year-on-year in H1 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 50.26 billion yuan, a 20.96% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.49 billion yuan, down 26.62% year-on-year [2]. - Q3 2024 net profit was 1.00 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.21% year-on-year, but an increase of 24.87% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 5.78% [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 71.1 billion yuan, 91.6 billion yuan, and 115.2 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 4.1 billion yuan, 6.1 billion yuan, and 7.8 billion yuan [2][3]. Business Segments - The sensor business reported revenue of 3.10 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 51.71%, while the air suspension business generated 4.24 billion yuan, a 44.48% increase [2]. - As of October 2024, the company has secured over 65.29 billion yuan in new orders for sensors and over 216.7 billion yuan for air suspension systems [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of AA/AA to the company and its convertible bond issuance [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is one of the largest suppliers of exhaust system components and valve stems globally, with a focus on automotive smart and lightweight products [18]. - The convertible bond issuance is sized at 1.39 billion yuan with a maturity of 6 years, featuring a conversion price of 40.11 yuan and a compensation interest rate of 8%, indicating a high level of return [6][7]. - The company's stock price has decreased by 29.38% year-to-date as of October 29, 2024, underperforming the industry index which declined by 12.12% [6]. - The company has a diluted total share capital rate of 14.05% and a diluted circulating share capital rate of 14.09%, indicating some dilution pressure [6][7]. Summary by Sections Convertible Bond Analysis - The bond's pure debt value is calculated at 95.9 yuan, with a corresponding yield to maturity (YTM) of 2.16%, providing sufficient debt protection [6]. - The expected subscription rate is approximately 0.0067% based on recent market conditions and subscription limits [10]. Company Overview - The company is controlled by Chen Hongling, Zhang Zuqiu, and Song Jin, with a significant portion of shares pledged, indicating potential equity pledge risks [11]. - The company specializes in automotive components, including TPMS, sensors, ADAS products, and air suspension systems, with TPMS and metal components being core products [11][12]. Industry Analysis - The automotive parts industry is closely linked to the automotive supply chain, with a competitive landscape that includes various levels of suppliers [16]. - The company has established a strong market position in TPMS, exhaust system components, and valve stems, with significant global market shares [16][18]. Financial Analysis - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.68%, while net profit decreased by 19.40% due to increased stock incentive costs and R&D investments [34]. - The company has experienced steady growth in its main business revenue, driven by traditional and new business segments [34].

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive investment rating for the convertible bond, suggesting a 15% premium on the first day of listing, with an expected listing price of around 112 RMB [6][34]. Core Insights - The company, Baolong Technology, is positioned as a leading supplier in the automotive parts industry, specifically in exhaust system components and tire pressure monitoring systems (TPMS) [10][31]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 21.68% increase in revenue for the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in the previous year [25][29]. - The convertible bond has a high pure bond value and a substantial debt floor protection, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Convertible Bond Basic Terms and Subscription Value Analysis - The Baolong convertible bond has an issuance scale of 1.39 billion RMB, with a bond and issuer rating of AA/AA [3][4]. - The conversion price is set at 40.11 RMB, with a conversion value of 97.06 RMB as of October 29, 2024 [3][4]. - The dilution pressure on total share capital is 16.34%, indicating a significant impact if fully converted [3][5]. 2. Baolong Technology's Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Industry and Supply Chain Analysis - The company is a major player in the automotive parts sector, focusing on intelligent and lightweight products [10][31]. - It has established a strong market presence in both domestic and international markets, with a notable share in the TPMS segment [10][11]. 2.2 Shareholding Structure Analysis - As of October 28, 2024, the major shareholders include Chen Hongling and Zhang Zuqiu, holding a combined 27.37% of the total shares [23][24]. 2.3 Company Operating Performance - In 2024H1, the company achieved a revenue of 3.184 billion RMB, with a net profit of 148 million RMB, reflecting a decline of 19.40% year-on-year [25][29]. - The gross margin for the same period was 27.12%, showing a slight decrease compared to previous periods [25][29]. 2.4 Peer Comparison and Competitive Advantages - Baolong Technology's revenue growth rate of 21.68% in 2024H1 outperformed the average growth rate of its peers [29][30]. - The company maintains a competitive edge through its established relationships with major automotive manufacturers and its strong R&D capabilities [31][32]. 3. Fundraising Project Analysis - The funds raised from the convertible bond will be allocated to various projects, including the expansion of intelligent manufacturing for air suspension systems [34][35]. - The expected internal rate of return for the air suspension system project is 19.48%, indicating a promising investment opportunity [34][35].