Group 1 - Canada will no longer impose retaliatory tariffs on most U.S. imports starting September 1, affecting approximately $21 billion in U.S. exports, including products like orange juice, peanut butter, and motorcycles [1] - Canada remains firm on tariffs related to the automotive, steel, and aluminum industries, which are critical to the manufacturing employment landscape in Mexico and Canada [1][3] - The Canadian government is under pressure due to domestic inflation and currency impacts from retaliatory tariffs, with GDP declining by 0.4% in Q2 2023 after a 0.5% growth in Q1 [3][4] Group 2 - Canadian exports of passenger cars and light trucks fell by 24.7%, while industrial machinery and equipment exports dropped by 18.5% in Q2 2023, indicating significant economic strain [4] - The Canadian government is discussing five strategic areas for cooperation with the U.S., including steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors, amidst ongoing tariff disputes [5] - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on non-compliant Canadian automotive products and has increased duties on Canadian softwood lumber to 35.19%, affecting construction costs in the U.S. [5][6] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding negotiations has led to a decrease in foreign investment in Canada, with expectations that the U.S. may push for higher localization ratios in the automotive sector and align labor wages with U.S. standards [6] - The upcoming review of the USMCA may introduce changes that could affect trade dynamics, with potential shifts towards more protectionist policies in North America [6]

Core Viewpoint - Canada will begin to lift some retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. starting September 1, while maintaining tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles [1] Group 1: Tariff Changes - Canada will no longer impose tariffs on U.S. goods covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) as a measure of reciprocity [1] - The decision to cancel certain tariffs is seen as a goodwill gesture to restart stalled trade negotiations [1] Group 2: Future Trade Considerations - The Canadian government plans to assess its priorities in the new global trade environment starting in September, in preparation for the review of the USMCA next year [1] - The USMCA, signed in 2018, officially came into effect in July 2020 and is scheduled for renewal discussions in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Multiple pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca and Bayer, announced investments totaling approximately 12 billion Mexican pesos (about 4.6 billion RMB) in Mexico, seen as a strategy to circumvent U.S. tariffs through the USMCA [1][8] - Bayer plans to invest around 3 billion Mexican pesos (approximately 1.16 billion RMB) over the next five years to expand local production facilities [3] - AstraZeneca will invest over 2 billion Mexican pesos (about 770 million RMB) in the next two years to enhance clinical research activities and expand production facilities for diabetes and chronic kidney disease medications [4] Group 2 - Boehringer Ingelheim is investing approximately 3.5 billion Mexican pesos to make its tablet production facility in Mexico City the largest globally [6] - A large domestic pharmaceutical company in Mexico announced plans to invest about 3.5 billion Mexican pesos to build a factory in central Mexico, creating over 5,000 jobs [6] - The Mexican government stated that the pharmaceutical industry will receive investments totaling around 12 billion Mexican pesos (about 4.6 billion RMB) [6] Group 3 - President Trump threatened tariffs on imported drugs that could reach up to 250%, with specific measures expected to be announced soon [8] - Products meeting the USMCA preferential tariff treatment conditions, such as drugs produced in Mexico, will not be affected by the new tariff measures [8]

据新华社，美国白宫7月31日晚间发布公告称，美国总统特朗普当日已经签署行政令，从8月1日起将加 拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。加拿大总理卡尼对此表示失望。卡尼31日午夜发表声明称， 对特朗普签署行政令将加拿大输美商品关税税率提高至35%表示失望。声明说，加拿大木材、钢铁、铝 和汽车等产业受到美国关税政策的严重影响，加政府将采取行动保护加拿大的就业机会并实现出口市场 多元化。白宫公告称，由于加拿大未能就控制芬太尼和其他违禁药物流入美国一事与美国合作，反而对 美国采取报复措施，美方认为有必要对加拿大商品加征关税。根据该行政令，符合"美国－墨西哥－加 拿大协定"（美墨加协定）优惠关税待遇条件的商品将不受最新关税措施影响。 ...

Group 1 - The Canadian government expresses disappointment over U.S. tariffs but remains committed to the USMCA, which is the second-largest timber trade agreement globally by trade volume [1] - Various sectors, including timber, steel, aluminum, and automotive, are significantly impacted by U.S. tariffs and trade barriers [1]

经济学家：加拿大出口商可能因特朗普对美墨加协定的计划而面临风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff measures imposed by the Trump administration on imports from Mexico and Canada are primarily aimed at addressing drug trafficking issues, but their actual impact may be limited due to exemptions for products that comply with the USMCA rules [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff Details - Starting August 1, a 30% tariff will be imposed on goods imported from Mexico, while a 35% tariff will be applied to goods from Canada [1]. - The tariffs are justified by Trump's claims of insufficient action by both countries in controlling fentanyl trafficking [1][6]. - The tariffs are expected to raise prices by approximately 1.2% due to direct and indirect effects on the economy [6]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The US imports over $100 billion annually in industrial goods from Canada and Mexico, which includes machinery, electronics, and agricultural products [5]. - The tariffs may create new negotiation leverage for the US in trade discussions, particularly regarding dairy and aluminum tariffs [4][6]. - The potential for retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico exists, but both countries are currently focused on demonstrating compliance with USMCA to mitigate the impact [7][8]. Group 3: Political Context - Trump's administration has sent letters to 24 countries and the EU regarding tariff adjustments, indicating a broader strategy of using tariffs as a negotiation tool [3]. - The political implications of these tariffs could lead to public dissatisfaction if prices for well-known consumer goods rise significantly [6]. - Both Canada and Mexico have expressed intentions to negotiate rather than retaliate, given their economic dependence on the US market [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump criticizes Canada for being difficult in trade negotiations, particularly regarding high tariffs on U.S. agricultural products [2] - Canada announced the cancellation of the digital services tax, which was set to take effect on June 30, to facilitate trade negotiations with the U.S. [3] - The U.S. has expressed strong opposition to Canada's digital services tax plan, which would impose a 3% tax on revenues from tech companies providing services to Canadian users [3] Group 2 - Trump highlighted that Canada imposes tariffs as high as 400% on certain U.S. agricultural products, indicating a significant trade imbalance [2] - The current tariff policies between the U.S. and Canada are established under the USMCA agreement, which Trump claims could become ineffective if Canada defaults [2] - The Canadian government had initially planned to implement the digital services tax retroactively to 2022, but this plan has now been abandoned to resume negotiations with the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - CIBC Macro believes that Canadian exports have reached a peak of weakness, with a potential for rebound in the coming months, but exports are expected to remain low through the remainder of 2025 unless there is a change in U.S. trade policy [1] Trade Data Summary - In April, nominal export values fell by 10.8%, with a seasonally adjusted decline of 9.1% [1] - Out of 11 industries, 10 experienced record declines in exports, with the automotive and industrial machinery sectors seeing the largest drops [1] Economic Impact - The poor trade data from April poses risks to the expectation of a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Canada [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has established implementation regulations for vehicles covered under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) [1]