证券研究报告 银行业月报 ——行业盈利温和修复，关注优质区域行 银行行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 袁喆奇 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520080003 研究助理 李灵琇 一般证券业务编号：S1060124070021 2026年2月4日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 注：全文所指银行指数均为银行（中信）指数 2 行业核心观点：资金结构深刻变化，顺势而为重配置轻交易。资金流向的变化是推动板块估值修复中不可忽视的力量，一方面被动指数的持续扩容带来了稳定的资 金流入，板块高权重的特征仍将持续推动资金的流入，一方面银行板块低波高红利的特征更易获得险资等中长期资金的青睐，目前板块平均股息率达到4.50%，结 合监管一系列引导中长期资金入市的措施，预计板块的股息配置价值吸引力仍将持续。个股维度，我们结合股息和潜在增量中长期资金流入空间，看好A股股份行 板块以及部分优质区域行（成都、江苏、上海、苏州、长沙），同时关注更具股息优势的港股大行配置机会。 25年度快报综述：营收盈利回暖，资产质量稳中有进。营收盈利回暖，资产质量稳中有进。截至1月末，共10家银行披露2025年度业绩快报，大部分银行营收盈利 同比增速均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 1.13% on February 3, with the Shanghai Agricultural Commercial Bank leading the drop, while the overall Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.29% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - The agricultural commercial bank sector saw various individual stock performances, with notable declines in several banks, including Jiangyin Bank and Zhangjiagang Bank, both down by 0.88% [1] Group 2: Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The total trading volume for the agricultural commercial bank sector was significant, with the highest trading volume recorded for Qingnong Bank at 895,900 shares and a total transaction value of 274 million yuan [1] - The sector experienced a net inflow of 77.82 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 106 million yuan [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Analysis - Yunnan Agricultural Commercial Bank had a net inflow of 32.1 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 18.46 million yuan from retail investors [2] - Changshu Bank also saw a net inflow of 23.19 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors withdrawing 10.73 million yuan [2] - Su Nong Bank had a net inflow of 15.3 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 20.84 million yuan from retail investors [2]

证券之星消息，2月2日农商行板块较上一交易日下跌1.94%，沪农商行领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4015.75，下跌2.48%。深证成指报收于13824.35，下跌2.69%。农商行板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601860 | 紫金银行 | 2.79 | -0.71% | 46.93万 | | 1.32 Z | | 002807 | 江阴银行 | 4.53 | -0.88% | 44.60万 | | 2.04亿 | | 002839 | 张家港行 | 4.53 | -0.88% | 31.55万 | | 1.44亿 | | 601528 | 瑞丰银行 | 5.40 | -0.92% | 19.41万 | | 1.06亿 | | 603323 | 苏农银行 | 4.97 | -1.00% | 29.89万 | | 1.50亿 | | 601128 | 常熟银行 | 7.22 | -1.10% | 46.60万 | | 3.40亿 | | 60 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the banking industry shows a steady improvement in asset scale expansion, profitability, and risk management as ten listed banks report their preliminary performance for 2025 [1] Group 1: Asset Scale Expansion - Ten banks achieved steady growth in total asset scale, with some banks reaching new milestones; for instance, China Merchants Bank's total assets exceeded 13 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 13.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 918.49 billion yuan or 7.56% year-on-year [3][5] - CITIC Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank both surpassed the 10 trillion yuan mark in total assets, indicating a significant expansion in their asset scale [5][4] - By the end of 2025, the total assets of CITIC Bank reached 10.13 trillion yuan, growing by 6.28%, while Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's total assets reached 10.08 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.55% [5][6] Group 2: Profitability Performance - Nine banks reported both revenue and net profit growth, with notable performances from Hangzhou Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Qingdao Bank, which achieved double-digit growth in net profit [8] - In 2025, Hangzhou Bank's operating income was 38.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.09%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 19.03 billion yuan, up 12.05% [8] - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's operating income was 173.96 billion yuan, an increase of 1.88%, while net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 10.52% to 50.02 billion yuan [9][10] Group 3: Risk Management - Half of the banks reported a decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios, indicating effective risk management; for example, CITIC Bank's NPL ratio was 1.15%, down by 0.01 percentage points [12][11] - The overall NPL ratio for the ten banks remained stable, with five banks showing a decrease, while others maintained their ratios, reflecting strong asset quality management [12][11] - The provision coverage ratio for eight banks decreased, but remained at sufficient levels to absorb potential risks, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Qingdao Bank being the exceptions, as their ratios increased [15][14]

中信、浦发资产规模破十万亿，城商行保持两位数高增 具体来看，中信银行、浦发银行资产规模双双迈入十万亿关口；9家银行实现营收净利双增长，城商行 增速表现亮眼；半数银行不良率下行，拨备出现回调但风险缓冲空间依旧充足。 截至目前，10 家上市银行 2025 年业绩快报首批亮相。整体上，行业规模扩张、盈利表现、风险管控三 大核心维度均呈现稳健向好态势。 2025年，10家银行总资产规模均实现了稳步增长，且部分银行资产规模上了新台阶。其中，招商银行资 产总额首次超过13万亿元，截至2025年12月31日，招商银行资产总规模13.07万亿元，较上年末增加 9184.87亿元，增幅7.56%；负债总额11.79万亿元，较上年末增加8710.63亿元，增幅7.98%。 兴业银行总资产也突破11万亿元，截至年末达11.09万亿元，同比增长5.57%。从核心业务来看，其各项 贷款余额5.95万亿元，同比增长3.70%；各项存款余额5.93万亿元，同比增速达7.18%，存款端增长势头 强劲。 值得关注的是，中信银行、浦发银行的资产规模双双迈进10万亿元大关。 而截至2025年末，中信银行、浦发银行双双迈过十万亿门槛，使该俱乐部成员 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The 2025 annual performance reports of 10 listed banks in A-shares show a year-on-year increase in net profit and stable asset growth, with some banks achieving double-digit growth in key sector loan balances [1][2] - The reported banks include four joint-stock banks, five city commercial banks, and one rural commercial bank, all of which have demonstrated revenue and net profit growth [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Among the joint-stock banks, China Merchants Bank leads with a net profit of 150.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.21%, while Shanghai Pudong Development Bank shows a remarkable growth of 10.52% [2][3] - City commercial banks and rural commercial banks also reported revenue and net profit growth, with Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank showing significant increases in revenue [2][3] Group 3: Asset Quality and Risk Management - The asset quality of the 10 listed banks remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios ranging from 0.76% to 1.26%, and several banks have seen a decrease in their non-performing loan ratios compared to the previous year [7] - The overall provision coverage ratio has declined for most banks, indicating a strategic release of provisions to support net profit while maintaining a solid risk buffer [7]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 annual performance reports of A-share listed banks indicate a general increase in net profit and asset scale, with many banks showing significant growth in key sector loans, despite a decline in provision coverage ratios [1][2][3]. Group 1: Net Profit Growth - All 10 disclosed banks reported year-on-year growth in net profit, with notable performances from specific banks: China Merchants Bank led with a net profit of 150.18 billion yuan, up 1.21% year-on-year, while Shanghai Pudong Development Bank showed a remarkable increase of 10.52% [2][3]. - Among the city commercial banks and rural commercial banks, all reported both revenue and net profit growth, with Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank achieving significant revenue figures of 71.97 billion yuan and 55.54 billion yuan, respectively [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Scale and Quality - The total assets of the 10 listed banks showed steady growth, with several joint-stock banks reaching new milestones; for instance, China CITIC Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank both surpassed 1 trillion yuan in total assets [4]. - The asset quality remained robust, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios ranging from 0.76% to 1.26%, and several banks, including Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank, maintaining the lowest NPL ratios at 0.76% [6][7]. Group 3: Loan Growth in Key Sectors - City commercial banks demonstrated strong loan growth, with Ningbo Bank and Xiamen Bank reporting loan growth rates of 17.43% and 18.39%, respectively, surpassing their total asset growth rates [5]. - Specific sectors such as green and technology loans saw significant increases, with Xiamen Bank's green loans growing by 68.55% year-on-year, indicating a focus on strategic lending [5].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of A-share listed banks shows resilience despite challenges such as declining interest rates and narrowing interest margins, with all 10 banks reporting positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of January 29, 2026, 10 A-share listed banks reported their 2025 performance, with 9 banks achieving both revenue and net profit growth [1]. - Qingdao Bank led with a 21.66% increase in net profit, reaching 5.188 billion yuan, while its revenue grew by 7.97% to 1.457 billion yuan [1]. - Hangzhou Bank and Pudong Development Bank also showed strong net profit growth rates of 12.05% and 10.52%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Asset Growth - All 10 banks reported positive growth in total assets for 2025, with four banks reaching new asset scale milestones [2]. - China Merchants Bank's total assets exceeded 13 trillion yuan, making it the largest among the disclosed banks, while Industrial Bank reached 11 trillion yuan [2]. - City commercial banks demonstrated significant asset growth, with Nanjing Bank and Ningbo Bank increasing their total assets by 16.63% and 16.11%, respectively [2]. Group 3: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios of the 10 banks remained low, with several banks reporting stable or slightly declining rates [3]. - Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank had NPL ratios of 0.76%, while Qingdao Bank's NPL ratio decreased to 0.97% [3]. - The provision coverage ratios, although slightly decreased, remained at sufficient levels, with Hangzhou Bank exceeding 500% [3]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Banks are adapting to industry challenges by optimizing their income structure and focusing on middle business income sources [4]. - City commercial banks and joint-stock banks are actively pursuing new growth engines through specialized business development, particularly in technology and green finance [4]. - Despite positive profit growth, many banks face pressure on return on equity (ROE) due to asset scale expansion [4][5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the banking sector's investment logic has shifted from "valuation recovery" to "dividend returns + profit resilience" [6]. - City commercial banks and rural commercial banks are expected to outperform the industry due to their regional advantages and understanding of local financial needs [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The performance indicators of the banking industry in 2025 show significant improvement, with operational trends becoming more favorable and asset quality continuously optimizing [3]. Revenue Performance - As of January 29, 2026, among the 10 listed banks that disclosed their 2025 performance reports, 9 banks reported revenue growth, while only one bank (CITIC Bank) experienced a decline [5]. - Among the four major joint-stock banks, three achieved total revenues exceeding 200 billion yuan, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading in growth at 1.88%, followed by Industrial Bank at 0.24%, and China Merchants Bank at 0.01%. CITIC Bank reported a revenue decline of 0.55% [5][6]. Net Profit Growth - All 10 listed banks reported positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025, with 9 banks achieving both revenue and profit growth, indicating overall stable performance [8]. - China Merchants Bank led with a net profit of 150.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.21%. Industrial Bank followed with a net profit of 77.47 billion yuan, up 0.34%, while CITIC Bank reported a net profit of 70.62 billion yuan, up 2.98%. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's net profit grew significantly by 10.52% to 50.02 billion yuan [8][10]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio among the 10 banks showed a general decline, with five banks reducing their NPL ratios compared to the previous year, while three remained stable and two saw slight increases [12]. - The overall NPL ratio for the banks improved, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank showing the most significant decline of 0.1 percentage points to 1.26%. China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank both decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 0.94% and 1.15%, respectively [12][15]. - The provision coverage ratio saw a general decline, with eight banks reporting lower ratios compared to the previous year, although the overall provision cushion remains adequate [13]. Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to benefit from monetary policy easing, which may alleviate margin pressures and support profit growth through liability optimization and business structure adjustments [18]. - Banks are focusing on quality and efficiency in operations, with an emphasis on risk management and customer base strengthening as they navigate ongoing industry challenges [18].

Group 1 - The agricultural commercial bank sector increased by 2.37% on January 29, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] - Major stocks in the agricultural commercial bank sector showed varying performance, with Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank closing at 6.47, up 4.19% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the agricultural commercial bank sector was 67.54 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 44.49 million yuan [1] - The table of fund flows indicates that the main funds had a negative net flow in several banks, including Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank and Jiangyin Bank [2] - Retail investors showed a positive net flow in several banks, including Jiangyin Bank and Su Nong Bank, despite some negative flows in other banks [2]