Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical industry index, with a notable increase of approximately 0.55%, driven by stocks such as Tongcheng New Materials reaching the daily limit [1] - The third China Petroleum and Petrochemical Carbon Neutral Technology Exchange Conference released the "White Paper on Low-Carbon Development in the Petroleum and Petrochemical Industry," indicating a clearer low-carbon transformation path under the "dual carbon" goals, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies for low energy consumption and low-cost carbon neutrality [1] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the ongoing focus on "anti-involution" at the policy level is expected to stabilize the profit bottom line in industries previously affected by supply-demand imbalances and low-price competition, leading to an optimized competitive landscape for high-quality development in the long term [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Petrochemical Industry Index, which is primarily composed of three sectors: refining and trading (27.12%), chemical products (23.87%), and agricultural chemical products (19.75%), all of which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continuous rise of A-shares, particularly in the petrochemical sector, with the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index increasing by approximately 0.8% [1] - Key stocks in the petrochemical sector include Tongcheng New Materials, which hit the daily limit, and Blue Sky Technology, which rose over 5%, along with other notable performers such as Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yaqi International [1] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities anticipates an improvement in the chemical upstream sector driven by policy support, particularly for leading companies in midstream industries closely tied to domestic demand, including polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical sectors [1] Group 2 - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its connected funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.65% and the petroleum and petrochemical industry for 32.3% of the index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, Sinopec, Salt Lake Industry, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Juhua Co., Cangge Mining, Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, and Hengli Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 55.63% of the index [1]

根据产业在线数据，2025年9月到2025年11月，我国家用空调排产总量分别为1075.00万台、1088.01万 台、1220.28万台，同比增速分别为-11.98%、-22.60%和-19.70%。根据百川盈孚数据，2024年6月以来， R32出口量较往年有提升趋势。一方面受到海外需求及补库提升，另一方面国内空调企业海外产能提升 带动了制冷剂出口量的上行。 行业要闻 智通财经APP获悉，东海证券发布研报称，2025年二代制冷剂配额削减，三代制冷剂生产配额总量保持 在基线值，二代、三代制冷剂供需关系仍然趋紧。2025年以来制冷剂价格稳步上行，8月、9月制冷剂价 格持续提升，根据百川盈孚数据，截至2025年9月19日，三代制冷剂R32、R134a、R125价格本年度分别 上涨44.19%、22.35%、8.33%。2025年上半年，制冷剂生产企业巨化股份(600160.SH)、三美股份 (603379.SH)、永和股份(605020.SH)归母净利润分别同比增长145.84%、159.22%、140.82%。制冷剂行 业有望维持高景气，相关生产企业盈利能力有望持续提升。 东海证券主要观点如下： 2025年8月 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a rising trend in the prices of third-generation refrigerants as of August 29, 2025, with R32, R125, and R134a priced at 60,000 yuan/ton, 45,500 yuan/ton, and 51,500 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% compared to the end of July [1][2] - The price of R22 has also increased to 35,500 yuan/ton, marking a 1.43% rise from the previous month and an 18.33% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights a decline in domestic air conditioning production from September to November 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 11.98%, 22.60%, and 19.70% respectively [3] Industry Overview - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are set to be reduced in 2025, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants will remain at baseline levels, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [4] - The prices of refrigerants have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant price hikes noted in August and September, where R32, R134a, and R125 saw increases of 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [4] - Major companies in the refrigerant production sector, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., reported substantial year-on-year net profit growths of 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% respectively in the first half of 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on the refrigerant industry, indicating a potential increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 20% or more within the next six months [72]. Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant prices have been steadily increasing since 2025, with significant price hikes noted in August and September. As of September 19, 2025, the prices for R32, R134a, and R125 have risen by 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively [7][66]. - The supply-demand relationship for second and third-generation refrigerants remains tight due to quota reductions and strong downstream demand, suggesting continued high profitability for related production companies [66]. - Major companies in the refrigerant sector, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co., have reported substantial year-on-year profit growth, indicating a robust industry outlook [66]. Summary by Sections Refrigerant Prices and Production - As of August 29, 2025, the prices for R32, R125, and R134a are 60,000 CNY/ton, 45,500 CNY/ton, and 51,500 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 9.09%, 0.00%, and 3.00% respectively compared to the end of July [7][15]. - Domestic production of R32, R134a, and R125 in August 2025 has increased by 63.05%, 66.77%, and 35.64% year-on-year [16]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 has decreased by 6.31%, 5.34%, and 4.66% respectively, indicating a tightening supply [19]. Company Performance - Haohua Technology reported a revenue of 7.76 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.45%, with a net profit of 725 million CNY, up 29.68% [58][59]. - Sanmei Co. achieved a revenue of 2.83 billion CNY, a 38.58% increase, and a net profit of 995 million CNY, reflecting a 159.22% growth year-on-year [60][61]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the refrigerant industry will maintain high prosperity levels, with companies expected to continue improving their profitability due to favorable market conditions [66]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant sector and those with a well-established industrial chain, such as Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. [66].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, with a focus on selecting elastic and advantageous sectors. Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while rising raw material costs and capacity exits in Europe and the U.S. have impacted overseas chemical companies. In the long term, China's chemical industry has a clear competitive advantage, with significant cost benefits and technological advancements, allowing Chinese companies to fill gaps in the international supply chain [6][16] Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Event Commentary - Prices of third-generation refrigerants continue to rise, indicating a high level of industry prosperity. The supply of refrigerants is constrained by quotas, and increased downstream demand has significantly optimized the supply-demand balance. Prices for R32, R134a, and R125 have increased by 44.19%, 22.35%, and 8.33% respectively this year. Major refrigerant producers have seen substantial profit growth, with companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. reporting net profit increases of 145.84%, 159.22%, and 140.82% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [15][8] 2. Chemical Sector Weekly Performance - For the week of September 15-21, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenwan Chemical Index dropped by 1.33%, underperforming the market by 0.89 percentage points. The Shenwan Oil and Petrochemical Index decreased by 1.99%, also underperforming the market [18][21] 3. Key Product Price Trends - The top price increases for the week included butyl acrylate (3.86%), bisphenol A (3.75%), and phenol (3.31%). Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in nitric acid (-3.11%), liquid ammonia (-2.71%), and caustic soda (-2.44%) [29][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine are supporting oil prices, which are expected to remain volatile in the short term. The report notes that WTI crude futures saw a slight increase of 0.03%, while Brent crude futures decreased by 0.33% during the specified period [6]. - OPEC+ is pushing for increased production despite low international oil prices, aiming to regain market share, which may lead to further pressure on global oil supply [6]. - The demand side shows significant crude oil inventory reductions in the U.S., with gasoline also experiencing a drawdown, providing some support for oil prices. However, as the summer travel season ends, refined oil consumption is expected to shift from peak to off-peak [6]. - In the fluorochemical sector, popular refrigerants like R32 and R134a continue to see price increases due to tight supply and steady demand from downstream industries such as automotive and air conditioning [6]. - The report highlights the strong growth in China's automotive production and sales, which increased by 13.0% and 16.4% year-on-year, respectively, in August 2025, boosting demand for refrigerants [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - Geopolitical tensions are providing short-term support for oil prices, with WTI and Brent prices showing mixed trends [6]. - OPEC+ discussions on production capacity are ongoing, with a focus on regaining market share despite low prices [6]. - U.S. crude oil inventory reductions and seasonal shifts in refined oil consumption are influencing market dynamics [6]. Fluorochemical - The market for refrigerants remains tight, with prices for R32 and R134a continuing to rise [6]. - Demand from the automotive and air conditioning sectors is supported by government policies promoting consumption [6]. - The reduction in production quotas for second-generation refrigerants is expected to tighten supply further [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the oil and petrochemical sector, fluorochemical sector, and semiconductor materials. It highlights the resilience of major domestic oil companies in the face of price volatility and recommends monitoring companies like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [7]. - In the fluorochemical sector, companies leading in third-generation refrigerant production and upstream fluorite resources are recommended for investment [7]. - The semiconductor materials sector is also highlighted for its positive trends in inventory reduction and domestic substitution [7].

Core Viewpoint - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a continuous upward trend in prosperity due to supply reductions and steady recovery in demand, leading to significant profit growth for leading companies in the sector [3]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the production quotas for second-generation fluorinated refrigerants will be further reduced, and third-generation refrigerants will implement production quotas, tightening the supply side of the industry [3]. - The steady recovery in downstream demand is optimizing the supply-demand landscape for refrigerants, resulting in continuous price increases for refrigerant products [3]. Group 2: Profit Growth of Leading Companies - In the first half of 2025, leading domestic refrigerant companies reported substantial year-on-year net profit growth: Juhua Co. +146.97%, Sanmei Co. +159.22%, Yonghe Co. +140.80%, and Dongyue Group +153.28% [3]. Group 3: AI Computing Power and Liquid Cooling Demand - The rapid growth in AI computing power demand is driving the need for liquid cooling solutions, prompting fluorochemical companies to accelerate their layout in the liquid cooling industry [4]. - Juhua Co. is advancing the "Juxin Cooling Liquid" project with a planned capacity of 5,000 tons/year, while Sanmei Co. is enhancing its integrated fluorochemical project in Chongqing [4]. Group 4: Liquid Cooling Technology Overview - Liquid cooling technology is an efficient heat dissipation solution using liquid as a cooling medium, offering advantages such as energy savings (PUE 1.1-1.25) and high-density cooling (supporting 30kW/rack) compared to air cooling [5]. - The main forms of liquid cooling technology are cold plate and immersion cooling, which are expected to see rapid growth as computing power continues to increase [6]. Group 5: Market Growth Projections - The global liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with expected market sizes of $2.9 billion in 2023 and $3.6 billion in 2024, reaching $4.5 billion by 2025 and $19.4 billion by 2032, indicating a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2032 [6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the liquid cooling industry as "Overweight," indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The MLCP (Micro-Channel Liquid Cooling Plate) technology is highlighted as an innovative solution to address the cooling challenges posed by ultra-high power chips, with expected power consumption exceeding 2000W [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of micro-channel design, forced convection, and optimized fluid dynamics in achieving high heat exchange efficiency [5]. - Key companies in the industry are recommended for attention, including Jiangshun Technology, Yingweike, and Kangsheng Co., among others, due to their advancements in liquid cooling technology [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The MLCP technology utilizes micro-scale fluid channels to achieve efficient heat exchange, capable of handling extreme thermal loads [5]. - The manufacturing processes for micro-channels include etching, 3D printing, and stamping, each with its advantages and limitations [5]. Key Companies and Valuations - Jiangshun Technology: Market cap of 48.74 billion, projected net profit of 1.55 billion in 2024 [6]. - Yingweike: Market cap of 756.61 billion, projected net profit of 4.53 billion in 2024 [6]. - Kangsheng Co.: Market cap of 54.89 billion, with a projected net profit of -0.98 billion in 2024 [6]. - Other notable companies include Nanfeng Co., Huazhu High-Tech, and Yinhong Co., with varying market caps and profit projections [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the refrigerant industry [5] Core Insights - The refrigerant industry continues to experience high prosperity due to supply reduction and steady demand recovery, leading to significant profit growth for leading companies [1][20] - The rapid growth in AI computing power demand is driving fluorochemical companies to accelerate their layout in the liquid cooling industry, which is expected to create a secondary growth curve [2][4] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for data centers and the computing era, offering energy-saving and high-density cooling solutions [3][31] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of second-generation fluorinated refrigerants will be further reduced by 2025, while the third generation will implement a quota system, tightening supply [1][20] - The domestic production of air conditioners and automobiles has shown steady growth, with production increasing by 5.1% and 10.5% year-on-year respectively as of July 2025, supporting the recovery of refrigerant demand [13] AI Computing and Liquid Cooling - The demand for liquid cooling is surging due to the rapid increase in AI computing power, prompting fluorochemical companies to focus on high-value products like fluorinated liquids [2][26] - Major companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. are expanding their production capacities and enhancing their product lines to meet the growing demand for liquid cooling solutions [27][28][29] Liquid Cooling Technology - Liquid cooling technology is a necessary evolution in the face of increasing computing power, providing superior cooling efficiency compared to traditional air cooling [3][31] - The global liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of reaching $4.5 billion by 2025 and $19.4 billion by 2032, reflecting a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2032 [3][46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant and fluorochemical sectors, including Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, Xinzhou Bang, Bayi Shikong, and Runhe Materials, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply and growing demand [4][55]