化学原料 2025 年 12 月 28 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 化学原料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2026 年制冷剂配额下发，行情保持 趋势向上；PVDF 头部企业停产，有 望助推反转行情—氟化工行业周报》 -2025.12.14 《HFCs 行业稳健运行，趋势未变， 机会明显 — 氟 化 工 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.11.30 《R134a 价格超预期上调，制冷剂板 块性价比显著，长期布局正当时—氟 化工行业周报》-2025.11.16 《制冷剂行业深度报告三：蓄势双 击，或迎主升》（2024.12.17） 《制冷剂政策点评：制冷剂 2025 年 配额方案征求意见稿下发，看好制冷 剂景气向上趋势延续》（2024.9.16） 《东阳光首次覆盖报告：原有主业或 迎业绩反转，制冷剂开启长景气周 期》（2024.8.27） 《制冷剂行业深度报告二：拐点已 现，行则将至》（2024.2.6） 《制冷剂行业深度报告：十年轮回， 未来已来》（2021.10.20） 《金石资源深度报 ...

FESTING T 2025 年 12 月 28 日 26Q1 制冷剂长协继续上扬， 硅或再迎涨价,关注商业部 张景气 -《化工周报 25/12/22-25/12/26》 相关研究 《氨纶或迎格局重塑，欧盟对华轮胎反倾 销暂不采取措施，不改企业出海优势- 《化工周报 25/12/15-25/12/19》》 2025/12/21 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowg@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 李彦宏 A0230125030002 liyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [28]. Core Insights - As of December 25, the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index increased by 6.2% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.2 percentage points, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 32.8%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 14.9 percentage points, ranking seventh among the 31 industries [2][9]. - All sub-sectors of the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index saw gains in the past two weeks, with the chemical fiber sector up 10.2%, plastics up 8.9%, and chemical products up 5.8% [11]. - Among the 406 listed companies in the Shenwan Basic Chemical Index, 328 saw their stock prices rise, with Yuan Chuang Co., Shen Jian Co., and Dongcai Technology leading with increases of 108.4%, 77.6%, and 47.4% respectively [13]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Basic Chemical Index has shown strong performance, with significant gains across various sub-sectors, indicating robust market conditions [9][11]. Chemical Product Price Trends - Recent price movements include an increase in PTA by 8.32% and a slight rise in urea by 0.35%, while lithium hexafluorophosphate and synthetic ammonia saw declines of -3.43% and -2.46% respectively [16][17]. Key Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Directory (2025 Edition)," which includes new categories such as bio-based chemicals [21][22]. - A significant oil discovery was made in the Bohai Sea, further solidifying China's offshore oil and gas resource reserves [22]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights the importance of the coal chemical industry, especially in light of new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization, which could present investment opportunities [24]. - The refrigerant market is expected to benefit from price increases due to supply constraints, with companies like Sanmei Co. and Juhua Co. showing significant profit growth [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhejiang Provincial Market Supervision Administration has released the results of a quality supervision inspection for 62 types of products, including hot-rolled ribbed steel bars, water-soluble fertilizers, and portable fire extinguishers, revealing that 210 out of 2331 batches tested were found to be non-compliant [1][2]. Group 1: Inspection Results - A total of 2331 batches of products were inspected, with 210 batches identified as non-compliant, indicating a non-compliance rate of approximately 9% [2][3]. - The inspected products span seven categories, including electrical materials, electronic appliances, mechanical and safety products, building materials, daily and textile products, light industrial products, and agricultural production materials [2][3]. Group 2: Non-Compliant Products - Specific products that failed the inspection include various types of stainless steel pipes, fire safety equipment, and agricultural fertilizers, while no non-compliance was found in several categories such as water-soluble fertilizers and children's shoes [3][4]. - The administration has mandated local market supervision departments to take legal actions against the manufacturers of non-compliant products, including confiscation and administrative penalties [3][4]. Group 3: Follow-Up Actions - The Zhejiang Provincial Market Supervision Administration will ensure that responsible parties rectify the issues identified and will conduct follow-up inspections to verify compliance [3][4]. - For products linked to businesses outside the province, the cases have been forwarded to the respective local market supervision departments for further action [3].

| | 龙虎榜 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券简称 | 目涨跌幅 | 机构净买入(万元) | | 浙江世宇 | 9.99% | 12071.24 | | 航天智造 | 16.30% | 9061.83 | | 山子高科 | 9.93% | 5811.53 | | 西部材料 | 10.00% | 4835.26 | | 华人健康 | 5.72% | 4397.94 | | 神剑股份 | 9.96% | 3457.90 | | 创源股份 | 19.98% | 3270.07 | | 华麦线缆 | -0.38% | 2456.00 | | 罗牛山 | 6.01% | 2082.37 | | $$1.4 | 20.01% | 1853.56 | | 三湘印象 | 10.10% | 1746.06 | | 星辰科技 | 0.26% | 1083.27 | | 三美弓 | 5.08% | 855.57 | | 骑士乳业 | 6.42% | 526.53 | | 庄周收场 | 9 990% | 453 97 | 共29只个股出现了机构的身影。 盘后数据显示，12月19日龙虎榜中，共29只个股出 ...

资料显示，浙江三美化工股份有限公司位于浙江省武义县青年路218号，成立日期2001年5月11日，上市 日期2019年4月2日，公司主营业务涉及氟碳化学品和无机氟产品等氟化工产品的研发、生产和销售。主 营业务收入构成为：氟制冷剂85.55%，氟化氢9.77%，发泡剂3.46%，材料销售0.70%，副产品销售 0.27%，其他0.25%。 三美股份所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学制品-氟化工。所属概念板块包括：养老金概念、集成电路、 融资融券、中盘、锂电池等。 12月19日，三美股份盘中上涨2.05%，截至10:42，报58.30元/股，成交1.26亿元，换手率0.36%，总市值 355.91亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入669.37万元，特大单买入1404.97万元，占比11.13%，卖出1001.21万 元，占比7.93%；大单买入2439.73万元，占比19.32%，卖出2174.11万元，占比17.22%。 三美股份今年以来股价涨55.01%，近5个交易日涨1.94%，近20日涨11.01%，近60日涨5.37%。 分红方面，三美股份A股上市后累计派现11.22亿元。近三年，累计派现7.55亿元。 机 ...

开源证券主要观点如下： 各家对10%→30%切换比例的变化非常克制、有序 华谊集团（600623）孙公司万豪公司(主要生产F152a，F142b，FKM和PVDF等)停产。据公司公告，公 司涂料级PVDF国内市场占有率超过65%，并在锂电级PVDF领域成为全球主要生产商之一。据氟务在线 资讯，此次停产对市场影响较为显著的产品主要为PVDF，当前已有多家企业上调报价，最高报价已达 5.6万元/吨，实际成交仍有待验证。 氟化工周行情：萤石价格走势承压；制冷剂延续向上趋势萤石 据百川盈孚，截至12月12日，萤石97湿粉市场均价3,290元/吨，较上周下跌0.87%；12月均价(截至12月 12日)3,312元/吨，同比下跌9.83%；2025年(截至12月12日)均价3,482元/吨，较2024年均价下跌1.78%。 开源证券发布研报称，2026年制冷剂配额下发，氟化工行情延续，R32、R134a、R125、R143a、 R227ea等2026年配额与2025年下发配额变化有限，相比2025年调整后配额有所收缩。另一方面，PVDF 头部企业停产，当前已有多家企业上调报价，最高报价已达5.6万元/吨，实际成交仍有待验 ...

Group 1 - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is set at 797,844 tons, with an internal quota of 394,082 tons, reflecting an increase of 5,962 tons and 4,502 tons respectively compared to 2025 [1] - The increase in production quotas for 2026 is primarily driven by R32 (up 1,171 tons), R134a (up 3,242 tons), and R245fa (up 2,918 tons), while reductions are noted for R143a (down 1,255 tons), R227ea (down 517 tons), and R152a (down 63 tons) [1] - The demand for refrigerants is expected to grow due to the increasing ownership of air conditioning and automotive cooling systems, which will continue to drive the demand for refrigerants [1][3] Group 2 - The prices of mainstream third-generation refrigerants have shown an upward trend, with annual increases of 43.75% for R134a, 19.74% for R125, 56.25% for R32, and 42.11% for R410 [2] - The domestic production of air conditioners from January to October 2025 reached 23,034 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.00%, while automotive production during the same period totaled 27.325 million units, reflecting an 11.00% year-on-year increase [3] - The supply of third-generation refrigerants is expected to remain rigid due to quota constraints, while the demand from downstream sectors is anticipated to grow, indicating a positive outlook for the refrigerant market cycle [3] Group 3 - Key companies in the refrigerant sector include Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379.SH), Haohua Technology (600378.SH), and Yonghe Co., Ltd. (605020.SH) [4]

开源证券近日发布氟化工行业周报：本周氟化工指数上涨0.12%，跑赢上证综指0.47%。本周（12月8 日-12月12日）氟化工指数收于4922.45点，上涨0.12%，跑赢上证综指0.47%，跑赢沪深300指数0.20%， 跑赢基础化工指数2.63%，跑输新材料指数0.54%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周（12月8日-12月12日）行情回顾 本周氟化工指数上涨0.12%，跑赢上证综指0.47%。本周（12月8日-12月12日）氟化工指数收于4922.45 点，上涨0.12%，跑赢上证综指0.47%，跑赢沪深300指数0.20%，跑赢基础化工指数2.63%，跑输新材料 指数0.54%。 行业要闻：2026年制冷剂配额下发，行情延续；PVDF行情有望迎来催化2026年制冷剂配额下发，行情 延续。R32、R134a、R125、R143a、R227ea等2026年配额与2025年下发配额变化有限，相比2025年调 整后配额有所收缩。整体来看，各家对10%→30%切换比例的变化非常克制、有序。据卓创资讯数据， 12月8日，华东大厂R32、R125、R410A、R134a制冷剂内外销价格全面调涨，为新一年行情打下良好基 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2025, with a total production quota of 797,844 tons, an increase of 5,962 tons from 2025. The internal use quota will increase by 4,502 tons [8] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants continue to rise, with significant annual increases observed, such as R134a increasing by 43.75% year-on-year [8] - The supply of refrigerants is expected to remain rigid due to quota constraints, while demand continues to grow, driven by increasing production of air conditioning units and automobiles [8] Summary by Sections Production Quota - The total production quota for third-generation refrigerants in 2026 is 797,844 tons, with internal use quota at 394,082 tons. The main increases are in R134a (3,242 tons) and R245fa (2,918 tons), while R143a, R227ea, and R152a see reductions [8] Price Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the prices for major third-generation refrigerants are as follows: R134a at 57,500 CNY/ton, R125 at 45,500 CNY/ton, R32 at 62,500 CNY/ton, and R410 at 54,000 CNY/ton, with notable monthly and annual growth rates [8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic air conditioning production from January to October 2025 reached 23,034 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.00%. The automotive sector also saw a production increase of 11.00% during the same period, indicating a robust demand for refrigerants [8]