[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究 1.《南美需求启动，关注双草投资机 会》，2025.7.18 2.《秋季备肥启动，关注钾肥、磷肥 投资机会》，2025.7.14 3.《有机硅更新：陶氏将关闭英国工 厂 ， 有 机 硅 产 能 有 力 出 清 》 ， 2025.7.11 4.《深海科技趋势下的化工蓝海！》， 2025.7.7 5.《政策持续发力"反内卷"，产能 过剩行业迎结构性改善契机》， 2025.7.7 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 20 日 涨价主线！关注 TDI、草铵膦、草甘 膦等 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周基础化工板块表现好于大盘。根据 Wind，本周（7/11-7/18）上证综指 ...

证券代码：603379 证券简称：三美股份 公告编号：2025-047 浙江三美化工股份有限公司 关于使用部分闲置募集资金进行现金管理 到期赎回的公告 公司于 2025 年 3 月 24 日召开第六届董事会第十八次会议和第六届监事会第 十六次会议，分别审议通过《关于使用闲置募集资金进行现金管理的议案》，同 意公司在确保募投项目所需资金和保证募集资金安全的前提下，使用闲置募集资 金进行现金管理，授权期限内单日最高余额不超过 1.90 亿元，授权期限自该次 董事会审议通过之日起 12 个月。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 3 月 25 日在上海 证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《公司关于使用闲置募集资金进行现 金管理的公告》(公告编号：2025-017)。 2025 年 1 月 17 日，公司使用闲置募集资金 5,000 万元认购了中国农业银行 股份有限公司武义县支行（以下简称"农行武义支行"）的单位定期存款。公司 于 2025 年 7 月 17 日赎回该笔现金管理产品，合计收回本金 5,000 万元，并获得 利息收益 31.25 万元，产品本金和利息收益均已归还至募集资金账户，具体情况 如 ...

海洋经济方面，2024年全国海洋生产总值首破10万亿元，占GDP7.8%;今年一季度同比增长5.7%。业内 认为深海科技前景广阔，预计2025年海洋生产总值将破13万亿元，深海科技产业占比超25%。多地积极 布局，青岛、海南、厦门分别出台规划，聚焦海洋科技创新、深海装备等领域，天风证券建议关注深海 材料、装备及数智化应用机会，三友化工已将海洋化学资源开发列为培育主业。 中信建投期货分析称，此轮上涨是对前期超跌的修复，因价格已跌破优势企业现金成本，利润修复预期 推动回弹。 中化新网讯 近日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议，聚焦全国统一大市场建设与海洋经济高质量发 展，带动相关板块走强。7月1日至10日的8个交易日内，光伏指数涨3.97%、绿色电力涨4.08%、海洋经 济指数最高涨7.99%，均跑赢同期上证指数和深圳成指。作为国民经济基础产业的化工行业，有望从国 家战略规划中受益。 会议直指"内卷式"竞争治理，强调"推动落后产能有序退出"，新一轮去产能启动。7月2日，多晶硅期货 多个合约涨停，主力合约收于3.505万元/吨，创近期新高;硅料价格同步回升，N型复投料成交均价3.47 万元/吨，环比涨0.87%。 此外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a performance explosion, with several companies forecasting significant profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven primarily by rising prices of fluorinated refrigerants [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Juhua Co. expects a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155% [3]. - Sanmei Co. anticipates a profit of 948 million to 1.042 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 146.97% to 171.67% [3]. - Yonghe Co. and Dongyangguang expect profits of 255 million to 280 million yuan and 583 million to 663 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 126.3% to 148.49% and 157.48% to 192.81% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The core driver of profit growth is the significant increase in fluorinated refrigerant prices, influenced by reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and strong downstream demand for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) [3][4]. - As of July 8, prices for third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 3.92%, 0%, and 2.06% respectively compared to the previous month, with notable year-to-date increases [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The downstream applications of refrigerants are concentrated in air conditioning, automotive air conditioning, and refrigeration, with domestic air conditioning production reaching 135 million units from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.74% [4]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued quotas for hydrofluorocarbons for 2025, further regulating supply and laying a foundation for high industry prosperity [4]. Group 4: Company Strategies - Dongyangguang achieved record high profits in the first half of the year, leveraging its quota advantage in third-generation refrigerants and a complete chlorofluorocarbon industrial chain to convert pricing power into performance growth [4]. - The company is accelerating its layout in fourth-generation refrigerants, establishing a technology hierarchy of "one generation leading, one generation reserving" [4]. - In the electronic components sector, Dongyangguang has built an integrated industrial chain for capacitors, with growing demand from data centers and energy storage, leading to optimized cost structures and new profit growth points [4]. Group 5: Emerging Business Ventures - Dongyangguang is constructing a liquid cooling ecosystem through capital operations, forming joint ventures and partnerships to enhance its competitive advantage across the entire industry chain [5]. - The company has entered the smart robotics field, with initial orders reaching 70 million yuan and plans to achieve an annual production capacity of over 10,000 units within five years [5]. Group 6: Industry Outlook - Industry insiders believe that the fluorochemical sector has entered a high prosperity cycle, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics and policy backing, with leading companies expected to continue expanding market share and enhancing profitability through technological advancements and diversified strategies [6].

Core Viewpoint - Several fluorochemical companies have announced positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with expected net profit growth exceeding 100% year-on-year for companies like Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigeration Co., Ltd., and Guangdong Dongyangguang Technology Holdings Co., Ltd. [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Juhua Co. expects a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155% [2] - Sanmei Co. anticipates a net profit of 948 million to 1.042 billion yuan, with a growth of 146.97% to 171.67% [2] - Yonghe Co. projects a net profit of 255 million to 280 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 126.3% to 148.49% [2] - Dongyangguang expects a net profit of 583 million to 663 million yuan, with an increase of 157.48% to 192.81% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core business of these companies, fluorinated refrigerants, has seen significant price increases due to reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and the implementation of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) starting in 2024 [2] - The supply-demand structure has improved significantly, leading to price increases and substantial profit growth for companies in the industry [2] Group 3: Market Trends - The fluorochemical industry has a broad coverage, with upstream activities including the mining and processing of raw materials like fluorite, midstream activities involving the synthesis and processing of fluorides, and downstream applications in refrigeration, military, electronics, and new energy sectors [3] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a have increased by 3.92%, 0%, and 2.06% respectively compared to the previous month [3] Group 4: Demand Growth - The demand for refrigerants is primarily driven by the home appliance and automotive air conditioning sectors, with a notable increase in domestic air conditioning production [4] - From January to May 2025, domestic air conditioning production reached approximately 135 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.74% [4] - The rapid development of new energy vehicles and increased export volumes have also contributed to the rising demand for refrigerants [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by rising refrigerant prices and improved industry conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.5-10.4 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 147.0% to 171.7% [1]. - The expected net profit for Q2 2025 is between 5.5-6.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 138.5% to 179.8% [1]. - The average domestic prices for refrigerants R22, R32, R134a, and R125 in Q2 2025 are reported at 3.59, 4.97, 4.76, and 4.53 thousand yuan per ton, showing increases from Q1 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The upward trend in refrigerant prices is expected to continue, with domestic prices for R22, R32, R134a, and R125 as of July 6, 2025, at 3.50, 5.30, 4.90, and 4.55 thousand yuan per ton [2]. - R32 has broken seasonal market patterns, with enterprise quotes rising to 5.4-5.5 thousand yuan per ton, indicating potential for further performance improvement in Q3 [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its integrated industrial chain, focusing on several key projects, including a 90,000-ton AHF technical transformation project and a 500-ton catalyst technical transformation project [3]. - The company aims to benefit from the ongoing growth in the refrigerant industry, with projected earnings of 24.6 billion, 32.1 billion, and 36.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [2][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the closure of Dow's organic silicon production capacity in Barry, UK, which is expected to increase domestic export demand and support the upstream industrial silicon costs, indicating a potential reversal in the organic silicon industry [4][5]. - The demand for high-end AI PCBs is projected to surge due to the continuous growth in computing power requirements, driven by GPU, ASIC, and 800G switch technologies [4]. - The report notes that the recent tariff announcements from the US on imports from Southeast Asia are lower than expected, stabilizing pessimistic market sentiments [4]. Industry Dynamics - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a significant increase in oil supply led by non-OPEC countries, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The report mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors [5]. - Natural gas exports from the US are anticipated to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the organic silicon sector include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, and Xingfa Group [4]. - In the PCB sector, recommended companies include Shengquan Group, Dongcai Technology, Lianrui New Materials, Yake Technology, Tiancheng Technology, and Jiuri New Materials [4]. - For traditional cyclical stocks, the report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Price Trends - The report provides specific price movements for various chemical products, such as PTA prices decreasing by 2.8% to 4715 RMB/ton, while MEG prices increased by 0.7% to 4409 RMB/ton [11]. - Urea prices rose by 2.9% to 1800 RMB/ton, while phosphate prices remained stable [12]. - The report notes that the price of DMC increased by 1.9% to 11000 RMB/ton, indicating a recovery in the organic silicon market [15].

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 12 日 三美股份 (603379) ——"黄金赛道"业绩持续兑现，制冷剂价格和盈利同环 比大增，业绩略超预期 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.25 | | 资产负债率% | 11.84 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 610/610 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 07-11 08-11 09-11 10-11 11-11 12-11 01-11 02-11 03-11 04-11 05-11 06-11 07-11 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 三美股份 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 | | 2024 | 2025Q1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,040 | 1,212 | 6,569 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, estimated between 947.62 million to 1,042.38 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 146.97% to 171.67% [3]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is forecasted to be between 939.02 million to 1,033.78 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 151.01% to 176.34% [3]. - The increase in profits is driven by a constrained supply of refrigerants, a favorable industry landscape, and rising prices, particularly for the second-generation and third-generation fluorinated refrigerants [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 547 million to 641 million yuan for Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 138.70% to 180.08% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 36.31% to 59.95% [3]. - The average prices for key refrigerants in Q2 2025 are reported as follows: R32 at 49,811.48 yuan/ton (+49.63% YoY), R134a at 47,688.52 yuan/ton (+52.41% YoY), R125 at 45,270.49 yuan/ton (+8.35% YoY), and R22 at 35,885.25 yuan/ton (+33.79% YoY) [3]. Market Position - The company has established a comprehensive fluorochemical industry chain, focusing on anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, fluorinated refrigerants, and fluorinated foaming agents, positioning itself as a major supplier in the industry [3]. - The projected basic earnings per share for 2025 is 3.17 yuan, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times [3]. Revenue Forecast - The revenue forecast for the company is as follows: - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 5,810.02 million yuan, with a net profit of 1,935.95 million yuan [5]. - The company expects to see continued growth in revenue and profit through 2027, with net profits projected to reach 2,691.63 million yuan by that year [5].