证券分析师 S (HT14) | 2025 年 10 月 19 日 相关研究 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 太自粉大厂开启全球化? 行业底部修复机遇 --《化工周报 25/10/13-25/10/17》 本期投资后示 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 当前时点的化工宏观判断。原油：供应方面，预期非 OPEC 引领原油产量提升 OPEC+存 ...

行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 19 日 钛白粉大厂开启全球化布局，重视 行业底部修复机遇 看好 ——《化工周报 25/10/13-25/10/17》 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased, leading to a continued downward trend in oil prices. WTI crude futures fell by 1.00% and Brent crude futures by 1.21% during the period from October 10 to October 17, 2025 [6]. - OPEC's latest monthly market report maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, predicting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [6]. - The domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through upstream and downstream integration and diversifying their oil and gas sources [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Geopolitical tensions have decreased, resulting in a downward trend in oil prices. The easing of risks is reflected in the signing of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and calls for further implementation of the ceasefire by the UN [6]. - The U.S. government is facing a budget impasse, which is impacting economic operations and creating uncertainty regarding fiscal policies [6]. - The report suggests that while short-term oil price risks may persist, the long-term outlook remains anchored by fundamental demand growth [7]. Fluorochemicals - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, leading to continued price increases. R32 refrigerant prices remain high, and R134a prices are also on the rise due to supply constraints and increasing domestic demand [6][7]. - The report highlights that the production of second-generation refrigerants is declining, while third-generation refrigerants have limited quota increases, stabilizing market competition [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor sector is experiencing an upward cycle, supported by improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report recommends focusing on companies like Nanda Optoelectronics and Shanghai Xinyang [7].

2025 年 10 月 19 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 化学原料 沪深300 相关研究报告 化学原料 《萤石行情持续复苏、制冷剂继续向 上，印度对我国 HFCs 制冷剂发起反 倾销调查 — 氟 化 工 行 业 周 报 》- 2025.9.28 《制冷剂企业 2025H1 利润继续断层 式上涨，萤石景气有所复苏，制冷剂 价格或将继续上调，行情远未结束— 氟化工行业周报》-2025.8.31 《制冷剂行业深度报告三：蓄势双 击，或迎主升》（2024.12.17） 《制冷剂政策点评：制冷剂 2025 年 配额方案征求意见稿下发，看好制冷 剂景气向上趋势延续》（2024.9.16） 《东阳光首次覆盖报告：原有主业或 迎业绩反转，制冷剂开启长景气周 期》（2024.8.27） 《制冷剂行业深度报告二：拐点已 现，行则将至》（2024.2.6） 《制冷剂行业深度报告：十年轮回， 未来已来》（2021.10.20） 《昊华科技深度报告：围绕国家科技 战略，军工基因铸就央企材料平台》 （2020.9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluorochemical industry is experiencing a significant upturn, with companies like Sanmei Co., Ltd. reporting impressive financial results, driven by factors such as quota reductions for second-generation refrigerants and increased downstream demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - Sanmei Co., Ltd. expects a net profit range of 1.524 billion to 1.646 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 171.73% to 193.46% [2][3]. - The company's core business, fluorinated refrigerants, is projected to account for approximately 80% of its revenue in 2024, highlighting its critical role in overall performance [1][2]. - The average price of fluorinated refrigerants has significantly increased, contributing to improved profitability [2][3]. Industry Dynamics - The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and ongoing management of third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) are optimizing the competitive landscape, alongside growing downstream demand [2][3]. - The industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, with past performance showing significant fluctuations due to market demand and pricing changes [4][6]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - Sanmei Co., Ltd. reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 629 million yuan, 484 million yuan, 709 million yuan, and 944 million yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025, indicating healthy cash flow management [6]. - As of mid-2025, the company holds over 3 billion yuan in cash, with a manageable debt structure, including long-term loans of 389 million yuan and current liabilities of 804 million yuan [6]. Market Trends and Challenges - The global shift towards environmental regulations is leading to the gradual phase-out of third-generation refrigerants, while fourth-generation alternatives have not yet been widely adopted, creating supply constraints [7]. - The industry faces volatility due to various factors, including raw material prices, environmental policies, and changes in downstream demand [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index declining by approximately 1%, while only a few stocks such as Luxi Chemical, Xin Feng Ming, Blue Sky Technology, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Yangnong Chemical saw gains [1] - In the fluorochemical sector, the third-generation refrigerant quotas are mainly concentrated among leading companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology, indicating a high industry concentration [1] - The refrigerant industry has maintained a high level of prosperity this year, leading to significant positive performance forecasts for major refrigerant companies in the first three quarters [1] Group 2 - According to Baichuan Yinfeng data, as of October 15, 2023, the domestic average prices for mainstream third-generation refrigerants are as follows: R32 at 62,500 yuan/ton (up 45.35% year-to-date and 64.47% year-on-year), R125 at 45,500 yuan/ton (up 8.33% year-to-date and 30% year-on-year), R134a at 52,500 yuan/ton (up 23.53% year-to-date and 54.41% year-on-year), and R410a at 53,000 yuan/ton (up 26.19% year-to-date and 45.21% year-on-year) [1] - According to the latest report from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the long-term logic for refrigerants remains intact under international agreements, and the industry outlook is positive, with expectations for price resonance in both domestic and foreign trade [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds closely track the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, which is primarily composed of three major sectors: refining and trading (25.60%), chemical products (23.72%), and agricultural chemical products (19.91%), all of which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated production capacity [2]

对于业绩增长的原因，三美股份在财报中明确指出，2025年，第二代氟制冷剂（HCFCs）生产配额进一 步削减，第三代氟制冷剂（HFCs）继续实行生产配额管理，竞争格局持续优化，下游需求增长，市场 价格稳步上行。2025年前三季度，公司氟制冷剂产品均价同比大幅上涨，盈利能力稳步提升。 公开资料显示，三美股份深耕氟化工领域，主营业务涵盖氟碳化学品、无机氟产品等氟化工产品的研 发、生产与销售，并于2019年4月成功登陆上交所主板，正式进入资本市场。从收入结构来看，氟制冷 剂是公司的核心营收来源，以2024年数据为例，公司全年营业收入为40.40亿元，其中氟制冷剂收入达 32.68亿元，占比约八成，凸显出该业务在公司发展中的支柱地位。 事实上，自2025年开局以来，三美股份的业绩表现便持续向好，季度数据呈现逐季攀升态势。今年第一 季度，公司实现营业收入12.12亿元，环比增长超20%，归母净利润4.01亿元；进入第二季度，业绩增长 势头进一步加快，营业收入增至16.16亿元，归母净利润也提升至5.94亿元，季度间的业绩进阶清晰可 见。 作为深耕氟化工领域的上市公司，三美股份以氟制冷剂为核心支柱业务，2024年该业务收入 ...

制冷剂行业景气度持续上行，带动制冷剂产品量价齐升，行业龙头今年三季度业绩有望再度爆发。 三美股份近日披露的业绩预增公告显示，公司预计今年前三季度实现归母净利润15.24亿元至16.46亿 元，同比增长171.73%至193.46%。其中，第三季度实现归母净利润5.29亿元至6.51亿元，同比增长199% 至268%，环比变动为减少11%至增长10%。 公司表示，今年以来，第二代制冷剂生产配额进一步削减，第三代制冷剂继续实行生产配额管理，竞争 格局持续优化，下游需求增长，市场价格稳步上行。前三季度，公司氟制冷剂产品均价同比大幅上涨， 盈利能力稳步提升。 永和股份预计今年前三季度实现归母净利润4.56亿元至4.76亿元，同比增长211.59%至225.25%；第三季 度实现归母净利润1.85亿元至2.05亿元，同比增长447.64%至506.85%，环比增长6.34%至17.83%。 永和股份认为，业绩大幅增长的原因为制冷剂行业高景气度延续，公司产品结构优化与产业链协同。具 体来看，公司通过优化邵武永和等生产基地的产线运行效率，提升相关氟化工产品的优等品率与产销规 模，推动邵武永和从"产能建设"向"效益释放"阶段 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 三美股份（603379.SH）10月15日在投资者互动平台表示，公司现有主营产品为氟制冷剂、氟发泡剂、 氟化氢。目前，公司在建项目包括六氟磷酸锂、聚全氟乙丙烯、聚偏氟乙烯、烧碱、环氧氯丙烷等产 品。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司在制冷剂之外，有哪些布局？目前形成收入的有 哪些？ ...

三美股份（603379.SH）10月15日在投资者互动平台表示，2025年度，公司HCFC-141b作为发泡剂用途 的生产配额为0.92万吨，占该品种全国生产配额总量的比例达到100%，相关产销量、价格等数据详见 公司披露的定期报告及主要经营数据公告。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问公司供应的HCFC-141b，目前价格是多少？公司是 世界独家生产吗？ ...