国泰海通晨报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：我国险资/理财/养老金规模超 70 万亿且持续增长，资产配置呈"固收为基、权 益渐进"特征。险资/社保重仓 A 股以金融为核心，同时逐步提升科技等成长领域配置。 2、【生物医药研究】医药：美国 IRA 谈判第二批价格公布，最高降幅达到 85%，价格将从 2027 年 1 月开始施行。由于谈判产品均接近专利悬崖，整体影响有限。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 方奕(分析师) 021-38031658 fangyi2@gtht.com S0880520120005 郭佼佼(分析师) 021-38031042 guojiaojiao2@gtht.com S0880523070002 策略专题报告：《中国中长期资金的制度、配置与空间》2025- 11-25 政策端：加快推动中长期资金入市。2 ...

南财投研通数据显示，11月27日，券商给予上市公司目标价共13次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排 名居前的公司有爱玛科技、海尔生物、亚翔集成，目标价涨幅分别为57.48%、36.35%、34.58%，分别 属于摩托车及其他、医疗器械、专业工程行业。 | | | 11月27日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 醫壇目标价 (元) | 目标涨幅 (%) | | 603529 | 爰玛科技 | 中信证券 | 置入 | 48.00 | 57.48 | | 688139 | 海尔生物 | 华创证券 | 推荐 | 44.00 | 36.35 | | 603929 | 亚翔集成 | 国泰海通证券 | 增持 | 78.50 | 34.58 | | 688212 | 澳华内镜 | 华创证券 | 推荐 | 63.00 | 34.07 | | 301087 | 可学医疗 | 华创证券 | 推荐 | 56.00 | 33.84 | | 601702 | 类峰铝业 | 东方证券 | ポゾ | 23.63 | ...

Group 1 - Institutional reports today issued 21 buy ratings involving 20 stocks, with Huafeng Aluminum receiving the highest attention with 2 buy ratings [1] - Among the stocks rated, 10 provided future target prices, with 7 stocks showing an upside potential exceeding 20%. China Pacific Insurance has the highest upside potential at 36.86% with a target price of 47.97 yuan [1] - The average increase for stocks with buy ratings today was 0.59%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with notable gainers including Spring Autumn Electronics and Aladdin [1] Group 2 - The power equipment industry is the most favored, with stocks like Putailai and Zhenyu Technology making the buy rating list. The pharmaceutical and electronics sectors also received attention with 4 and 3 stocks respectively [2] - A detailed list of stocks with institutional buy ratings includes China Pacific Insurance, Huafeng Aluminum, and others, with various target prices and latest closing prices provided [2]

本报告导读： 2025 单 Q3 归母净利润同增 39.6%，毛利率提升 8.8pct。新签世界先进项目 31.63 亿元，加大海外市场拓展力度，进一步开拓东南亚及其他国际市场。 投资要点： [维持增持 Table_Summary] 。3季报业绩高于预期，上调预测2025–2027年EPS3.14/4.40/5.30 元增 5.2/40.5/20.2%,给予公司 2025 年 25 倍 PE,对应目标价 78.5 元。 股 票 研 究 2025 单 Q3 归母净利润增 40%，Q1~Q3 毛利率提升 9pct 亚翔集成(603929) 亚翔集成三季报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩其成(分析师) | 021-38676162 | hanqicheng@gtht.com | S0880516030004 | | 郭浩然(分析师) | 010-83939793 | guohaoran@gtht.com | S0880524020002 | | 曹有成(分析师) | 021-23185701 | caoyo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the construction industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the logic of overseas engineering expansion is gradually being realized, with high growth areas showing superior growth. Infrastructure and real estate demand continue to face pressure, while railway and water conservancy investments perform well, with the effects of debt reduction expected to gradually manifest [1][8]. - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are experiencing a significant decline in revenue and performance, but there is a long-term trend of improving operational quality. Many SOEs have shown improvements in profitability, cash flow, and expense ratios, indicating a gradual enhancement in operational quality [2][8]. - The overseas new contract signing is rapidly increasing, demonstrating the effectiveness of the overseas expansion strategy. The contract value and revenue from foreign engineering projects have shown significant year-on-year growth, providing support for domestic construction enterprises [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Infrastructure investment growth has been declining, with broad infrastructure investment growth dropping from 11.50% in early 2023 to 1.51% by October 2025. Narrow infrastructure investment growth turned negative, indicating a significant slowdown in traditional infrastructure demand [16][17]. - The investment growth in the railway sector remains positive, while road transport investment has been declining due to funding pressures from local governments and construction enterprises [18][20]. 2. Central SOEs Performance - Central SOEs in the infrastructure sector are facing revenue and performance growth challenges, but operational quality is improving. The implementation of debt reduction measures is expected to show fiscal effects by 2026 [2][8]. 3. Overseas Expansion - The overseas contract signing for Chinese construction enterprises has increased significantly, with major state-owned enterprises showing higher growth rates in new contracts compared to the overall market. This trend is expected to support revenue growth in the coming years [3][8]. 4. Regional Investment Trends - In the western region, particularly Xinjiang, fixed asset investment growth is significantly higher than the national average, with major infrastructure projects expected to drive demand growth [6][8]. - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is projected to see substantial investment, with over 400 key projects planned, totaling an investment of 3.47 trillion yuan [6][8]. 5. Cleanroom Engineering Demand - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to rise due to increased capital expenditure in the AI and semiconductor industries. The cleanroom engineering sector is experiencing rapid growth in orders, particularly from overseas markets [7][8]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valuation central SOEs like China State Construction and China Communications Construction Company are well-positioned for stable returns, with improving operational metrics and increasing dividends [9][8]. - Leading companies in overseas expansion, such as China National Materials and China Steel International, are expected to outperform traditional construction enterprises due to their strong growth in overseas orders [9][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, particularly focusing on international engineering leaders such as China National Materials (中材国际), China Steel International (中钢国际), and others [9][24]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased, which could lead to significant reconstruction investments in Ukraine, estimated at $523.6 billion over the next decade, creating substantial demand for construction projects and building materials [2][18]. - Chinese construction companies are well-positioned to benefit from overseas projects, especially in post-war reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, as they possess competitive advantages in technology, efficiency, and cost [3][20]. - The trend of urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, combined with the relocation of some manufacturing capacities from China, indicates a long-term trend of Chinese construction companies expanding overseas [7][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the potential for large-scale reconstruction in Ukraine if the conflict ends, with significant investment needs in housing (16% of total needs) and infrastructure (32.4% of total needs) [2][18]. - The demand for basic construction materials like cement and steel is expected to rise significantly due to reconstruction efforts [18][19]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include: - China National Materials (中材国际) with a PE of 7.2X and a dividend yield of 5.5% - China Steel International (中钢国际) with a PE of 9.6X and a dividend yield of 5.3% - Northern International (北方国际) with a PE of 11X - China Chemical Engineering (中国化学) with a PE of 6.3X and a PB of 0.70X - Jianghe Group (江河集团) with a PE of 12X and a dividend yield of 6.5% - Precision Steel Structure (精工钢构) with a PE of 10X and a dividend yield of 6.9% [8][24][26]. Market Trends - The report notes that overseas construction demand remains robust, driven by urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and various infrastructure initiatives in Southeast Asia [7][22][23]. - The report cites that 68% of A-share listed companies have disclosed overseas business income, indicating a growing trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally [7][24].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to monitor market trends and identify potential market leaders. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market trends and highlights stocks or indices that are leading the market, aligning with the principles of momentum and trend-following strategies[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother price trajectories are associated with stronger momentum effects[24][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following criteria: - **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: 250-day price change in the top 20% of the market - **Price Stability**: Stocks are ranked based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Ratio of price displacement to the total price path - **Sustainability of New Highs**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected[24][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24][27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative distance of a stock's price from its 250-day high, serving as an indicator of momentum and trend strength[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The formula is: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, making it a reliable indicator for identifying market leaders[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period - Rank stocks based on this ratio and select the top performers[24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor highlights stocks with stable momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4][24] - As of November 21, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 4.83%, Shenzhen Component Index 8.65%, CSI 300 6.20%, CSI 500 9.69%, CSI 1000 7.59%, CSI 2000 7.40%, ChiNext Index 12.16%, and STAR 50 Index 16.45% [5][24] - Among the CITIC primary industry indices, the sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include petroleum and petrochemicals, textiles and apparel, basic chemicals, home appliances, and steel [8][24] Group 2 - A total of 1,127 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number of new highs in the basic chemicals, machinery, and power equipment and new energy sectors [2][13][24] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the textiles and apparel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors, with respective proportions of 41.41%, 38.89%, and 38.71% [13][24] - The cyclical and manufacturing sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 364 and 315 stocks respectively [15][24] Group 3 - The report identifies 15 stocks that have shown stable new highs, including Heertai, Sry New Materials, and Cangge Mining, with the manufacturing and cyclical sectors contributing the most stocks [3][20][25] - The construction industry had the highest number of new highs within the manufacturing sector, while the non-ferrous metals industry led in the cyclical sector [20][25]

Group 1: New Stock Offerings - Tianpu Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 605255) has a tender offer period from November 20, 2025, to December 19, 2025[1] - Hangzhou Steam Turbine Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 200771) has a cash option declaration period from November 19, 2025, to November 25, 2025[1] - Central Plaza (Stock Code: 600280) announced on November 20, 2025[1] Group 2: Stock Performance Alerts - Moen Electric (Stock Code: 002451) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on November 14, 2025[1] - ST Yuancheng (Stock Code: 603388) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on November 11, 2025[1] - ST Keli Da (Stock Code: 603828) reported severe abnormal fluctuations on November 12, 2025[1] Group 3: Recent Announcements - Jiumuwang (Stock Code: 601566) announced on November 20, 2025[1] - Taiping Bird (Stock Code: 603877) announced on November 20, 2025[1] - Huaci Co., Ltd. (Stock Code: 001216) announced on November 20, 2025[1]

Summary of Cleanroom Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cleanroom engineering service market is experiencing significant growth driven by multiple factors, including strong performance from companies like Yaxiang Integration and the increasing demand in the semiconductor and new energy sectors [1][2][3] - The market for semiconductor-related cleanroom capital expenditure has notably increased, reaching approximately 30 billion RMB, with expectations for further growth due to domestic substitution trends [1][8] Key Companies - **Yaxiang Integration**: Recommended as a top stock, benefiting from overseas capital expenditure trends in the semiconductor and new energy sectors. The company achieved its best quarterly gross margin and scale of operations in Q3 [1][2] - **Mei'an Technology**: A leading air purification equipment manufacturer, expected to achieve a profit of at least 300 million RMB by 2026, with a reasonable market valuation of around 6 billion RMB [3][14][16] - **Shenghui**: Engaged in upstream and downstream cleanroom engineering, focusing on projects related to Huawei and PCB [6][7] Financial Performance and Projections - Yaxiang Integration's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a projected net profit of 900-1,000 million RMB by 2026, and a target market capitalization of around 15 billion RMB [3][4][12] - The company is expected to secure over 10 billion RMB in new orders in the Singapore market by 2025, with a gross margin of approximately 27.5% [1][11] - Mei'an Technology's revenue structure is less affected by investment cycle fluctuations due to a significant portion of sales coming from replacement demand [15][16] Market Dynamics - The cleanroom engineering service market is driven by the need for high cleanliness levels in various sectors, including semiconductors, new energy, biomedicine, and food and beverage [5] - The overseas market is benefiting from AI demand and geopolitical factors, with significant orders being awarded to a few service providers, enhancing operational efficiency [9][10] Future Trends - The semiconductor industry is entering a new investment cycle, particularly in Southeast Asia, with major investments announced by companies like Micron and World Advanced [10][11] - The cleanroom capital expenditure is expected to structurally increase as domestic players tackle advanced processes, with a focus on companies with rich experience in the field [8][9] Conclusion - The cleanroom engineering service market is poised for substantial growth, driven by strong demand in the semiconductor sector and supportive macroeconomic factors. Companies like Yaxiang Integration and Mei'an Technology are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with promising financial projections and market opportunities ahead [1][2][3][4][12][16]