证券代码： 证券简称：巴比食品 605338 中饮巴比食品股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-0302 R特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 投资者关系 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 活动类别 □现场参观 R其他 线上电话会议 慎知资产、中意资产、国都证券、泓德基金、广发证券、上海牧毅投 资、国信证券、华宝基金、东海证券、中泰证券、招商证券、国金证 券、国泰君安、华创证券、中信建投、兴业证券、中金公司、西部证 券、光大证券、中信证券、山西证券、天风证券、太平洋证券、开源 证券、东兴证券、中邮证券、上海海宸投资、惠通基金、上海元泓投 资、野村证券、同犇投资、天合资产、博泽资产、华福证券、深圳富 海中瑞私募、中国银河证券、兴华基金、上海赫强机电、东吴证券、 参与单位 德邦证券、长江证券、信达证券、上海同犇投资、沈阳恒睿投资、长 名称 城证券、申万宏源、理成资产、广东博众智能科技投资、南京点润投 资、爱建证券、羊角基金、西南证券、上海递归私募、上海泾溪投 资、兴业基金、赞庚投资、上海贵源投资、华泰保兴基金、恒远资 本、瑞银集团、亚太财险、中天国富、华西证券、天治基金、国华兴 益保险、Br ...

华福证券 证 券 研 究 报 告 预加工食品 2024 年 03 月 31 日 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------------| | | | | | | | 基本数据 | | | 总股本/流通股本(百万股 ) | 250.14/248.00 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) | 4,240.80 | | | | | 每股净资产(元 ) | 8.81 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 20.51 | | 一年内最高/最低价(元 ) | 32.05/13.60 | | | | | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 团队成员 | | 分析师： 刘畅 (S0210523050001) lc30103@hfzq.com.cn | | 分析师： 童杰 (S0210523050002) tj30105@hfzq.com.cn | | 相关报告 | | 1 、巴比食品（ 605 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.63 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.04% to 214 million yuan [2] - The company opened 1,319 new stores in 2023, exceeding its target of 1,000 stores, bringing the total number of franchise stores to 5,043 by the end of 2023 [2] - The company is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions, with a strategic partnership established with a local brand, expected to enhance store numbers further [2] - The company is focusing on improving single-store revenue through high-priced product offerings and increasing delivery service penetration [2] - The company anticipates a recovery in group meal services in 2024, with a projected revenue of 1.88 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.7% [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.86 yuan, down 4.44% year-on-year [2] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 1.88 billion yuan, 2.12 billion yuan, and 2.36 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 240 million yuan, 269 million yuan, and 306 million yuan [4] - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.96 yuan, 1.08 yuan, and 1.23 yuan respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.8X, 15.9X, and 14.0X [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 26.6% to 27.6% over the next few years [4]

全国化持续深化，团餐业务仍有潜力 ——巴比食品（605338.SH）2023 年年报点评 要点 2024 年 3 月 31 日 风险提示：下游需求较弱，成本上涨超预期，门店拓展不及预期。 买入（维持） 作者 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------|-------| | | | | | 市场数据 | | | | 总股本(亿股 ) | 2.50 | | | | | | | 总市值(亿元)： | 42.77 | | | 一年最低 /最高( 元)： | 13.60/31.74 | | | 近 3 月换手率： | 44.68% | | -53% -38% -22% -6% 10% 03/23 06/23 09/23 12/23 巴比食品 沪深300 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 -1- 证券研究报告 财务报表与盈利预测 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------- ...

拐点将至，未来可期 [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 1,525 1,630 1,959 2,294 2,586 增长率 yoy% 11% 7% 20% 17% 13% 净利润（百万元） 222 214 248 293 338 增长率 yoy% -29% -4% 16% 18% 15% 每股收益（元） 0.89 0.85 0.99 1.17 1.35 每股现金流量 0.77 0.98 1.28 1.30 1.49 净资产收益率 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% P/E 19.2 20.0 17.3 14.6 12.7 P/B 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 备注：股价选取 2024 年 3 月 29 日收盘。 市场价格：17.10 元 [基本状况 Table_Profit] 总股本(百万股) 250 流通股本(百万股) 248 市价(元) 17.10 市值(百万元) 4,277 流通市值(百万元) 4,241 巴比食品（605338.SH）/食 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.2 CNY based on a current price of 16.79 CNY [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.63 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.0% to 214 million CNY [8]. - The company plans to accelerate store openings, targeting an additional 1,000 stores in 2024, while also focusing on new retail initiatives and enhancing its catering business [8]. - The overall gross margin for 2023 was 26.4%, a decline of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased depreciation from new factory investments and a decrease in catering gross margins [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (million CNY) for 2023 was 1,630, with a projected growth of 13.7% in 2024 [9]. - Net profit (million CNY) for 2023 was 213, with an expected increase of 18.5% in 2024 [9]. - Earnings per share (CNY) for 2023 was 0.85, with projections of 1.01 for 2024 and 1.19 for 2025 [9]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 20 for 2024, decreasing to 12 by 2026 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Babifood (605338) with a target price of 23.90, down from the previous forecast of 30.00 [17][18]. Core Views - The company is accelerating its store openings and improving profitability on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The future growth is expected to be driven by continued rapid expansion [17][18]. - The financial performance for 2023 is in line with previous forecasts, with a reported net profit of 2.14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.04% in revenue [17][18]. - The company has opened 289 new stores in Q4 2023, achieving a total of 5,043 franchise stores, indicating a strong commitment to expansion [17][18]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 1,525 million - 2023A: 1,630 million - 2024E: 1,938 million [10] - **Net Profit**: - 2022A: 223 million - 2023A: 214 million - 2024E: 261 million [10] - **Profitability Ratios**: - EBIT margin: 13.6% in 2022A, expected to be 12.7% in 2024E [10]. - Net profit margin: 14.6% in 2022A, expected to be 13.5% in 2024E [10]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rate: 10.9% in 2022A, 6.9% in 2023A, and projected 18.8% in 2024E [10]. - Net profit growth rate: -29.1% in 2022A, -4.0% in 2023A, and projected 22.1% in 2024E [10]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings, particularly in new regions and through new product launches [17][18]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 26.3% in 2023A to 26.7% in 2024E [10]. Market Position - Babifood operates primarily in the frozen food sector, specializing in Chinese-style pastries, with a diverse product range including buns, steamed bread, and porridge [8][10]. - The company is positioned within the essential consumer goods industry, specifically in the food and beverage sector [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue its store expansion at a steady pace, with a focus on the development of its group meal business, which is anticipated to contribute to new performance growth [21]. - Revenue for 2023 reached 1.63 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-on-year, driven by an increase in store numbers and rapid growth in group meal business outside East China [21]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4 yuan for every 10 shares, increasing the dividend payout ratio to 47% of net profit [21]. Financial Summary - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2023 were 26.35% and 13.21%, respectively, with slight year-on-year changes [21]. - The company reported a net profit of 214 million yuan for 2023, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, primarily due to rising labor costs and depreciation expenses [21]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates expected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.02, 1.17, and 1.30 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 14, and 13 times [21]. Business Expansion and Product Segmentation - The company aims to open 1,000 new stores in 2024 while also expanding its semi-finished product business to cater to small B catering, providing a second growth curve for group meals [21]. - In 2023, revenue from different product categories was 662 million yuan for rice products, 414 million yuan for fillings, and 394 million yuan for purchased food, with year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 18%, and 4%, respectively [21]. - The company had a total of 5,043 franchise stores by the end of 2023, with a net increase of 570 stores, indicating a robust growth in the franchise channel [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.63 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 214 million, a decrease of 4% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024-2026 shows expected net profits of 250 million, 293 million, and 339 million respectively, with growth rates of 17%, 17%, and 16% [6][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout of 4 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend rate of 46.8% [6]. - The company is expected to see gradual recovery in single-store revenue and orderly expansion of its store opening plan, with improved profitability anticipated due to increased capacity utilization [6]. - The company aims to enhance its revenue through a dual-driven approach of store expansion and group meal services, leveraging both internal growth and external partnerships [6]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 1,630 million, with a projected increase to 1,834 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 12.5% [10]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 26.3%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, but showed a quarterly improvement trend [6][10]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2023 was 10.9%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, yet also showed a quarterly improvement [6][10]. - The earnings per share for 2023 was 0.86 yuan, with projections of 1.00 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.36 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.63 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.89%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.04% to 214 million yuan [1]. - The company plans to continue its national expansion and pursue a dual-driven strategy, aiming to open 1,000 new stores in 2024 [2]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 1.91 billion yuan, 2.19 billion yuan, and 2.48 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.4%, 14.4%, and 13.5% [2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross profit margin of 26.35%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year. The gross profit margins for franchising, direct sales, and group meals were 26.97%, 59.93%, and 20.81%, respectively [1]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2023 was 13.11%, down by 1.49 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The company opened a total of 1,319 new franchise stores in 2023, ending the year with 5,043 stores, which is a net increase of 570 stores [1]. Future Outlook - The company is set to complete the acquisition of a 51% stake in the breakfast brand "Zheng Quan Wei" by Q2 2024, which is expected to enhance its product offerings [2]. - The new factory in Dongguan is scheduled to commence operations by the end of March 2024, with another factory in Wuhan expected to start production by the end of 2024 [2].