文 | FBIF食品饮料创新 Mote莫特 盒马五谷丰登馒头 最近，盒马有一款叫"五谷丰登"的馒头卖爆了。 它不是那种白白胖胖、安安静静的传统馒头，而是把紫薯、板栗、坚果、芝士紧紧塞进去，最大的亮点是——切半卖，截面像一块彩色地层，层层分 明。"高纤维""低负担""蒸制更健康"，这些词，开始贴在馒头身上。 上线不到半年，月下单人数就突破7000人；截至2026年2月15日，小红书"五谷丰登馒头"话题已经有了5.1万讨论，盒马APP商品评论区积累有7万多条互 动。在盒马和小象超市等平台，它被当成早餐、代餐，甚至健身控卡食品来买。馒头，第一次不再只是低价主食，而成了一种有溢价的功能型碳水。 在FBIF发布文章：盒马、奥乐齐都在推的新式馒头，塞满粗粮切半卖，已经火了半年后，引发了关于"馒头"与面包的讨论。有网友留言："你看，最后抢 走面包生意的，可能根本不是另一家面包店，而是卖馒头的" 我也在想一个问题：中国的馒头和包子，未来在全球范围内，是否会跟面包"终有一战"？ 那要先说说面包是怎么统治世界的。 一、面包凭什么统治世界？ 吐司面包（Mote莫特，Nano Banana生成） 早餐是吐司，午餐是三明治，晚餐配法棍 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Babi Foods Company Overview - **Company**: Babi Foods - **Date**: February 12, 2026 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Babi Foods is benefiting from a rebound in fundamentals, particularly in the East China region, where there is a population return and reduced competition in the breakfast market [2][3] - The company primarily targets the breakfast needs of office workers in high-tier cities, which had been negatively impacted by population shifts and intense market competition in recent years [3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Babi Foods reported its first year-on-year positive same-store sales growth, alongside a net increase in store count, marking a significant recovery post-pandemic [2][6] - The stock price has been on an upward trend since July 2025, driven by improvements in the company's fundamentals rather than broader market factors [3] Expansion Strategy - Babi Foods has adopted an aggressive acquisition strategy, completing significant acquisitions of three brands in 2025, resulting in hundreds of new stores [2][4] - The company plans to open 500 new dine-in Xiao Long Bao (soup dumpling) stores in 2026, with expectations that all will remain operational [4][16] - The total market capacity for Xiao Long Bao is estimated at nearly 20,000 stores nationwide, with Babi Foods aiming to capture a significant share [11] Product Focus and Profitability - The Xiao Long Bao business is viewed as a key growth driver, with a gross margin exceeding 60%, compared to 55-60% for traditional buns [7] - The pricing strategy for Xiao Long Bao is approximately 10 yuan per serving, higher than the 5-6 yuan for traditional buns, which is expected to enhance both revenue and net profit [7] Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 15% for 2026, with profits expected to reach 300 million yuan, and a potential increase to over 20% growth in 2027, with profits nearing 400 million yuan [4][20] - The company anticipates that the expansion of the Xiao Long Bao business will significantly contribute to overall profitability and market presence [19][20] Store Performance and Innovations - New store formats have shown promising results, with some locations achieving daily sales of over 10,000 yuan, significantly outperforming traditional bun stores [14] - The company is enhancing customer experience by upgrading store designs and emphasizing the "smoky atmosphere" concept, which includes visible food preparation [10] Acquisition Strategy - While acquisitions remain a critical part of Babi Foods' strategy, the focus for 2026 may shift towards opening new Xiao Long Bao stores, potentially reducing the number of acquisitions that year [8][9] - The company has identified 100-200 potential brands for future acquisitions, indicating a robust pipeline for growth [8] Market Valuation - If profits reach 400 million yuan, the company could achieve a market valuation of approximately 8 billion yuan based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio [21] - The long-term outlook suggests that if the Xiao Long Bao business scales successfully, the market value could exceed 10 billion yuan, driven by increased revenue and profitability from both new stores and acquisitions [22] Conclusion - Babi Foods is positioned for significant growth through strategic acquisitions, product innovation, and market expansion, particularly in the Xiao Long Bao segment, which is expected to drive future profitability and enhance market valuation [2][4][20]

Core Insights - The retail industry is shifting towards a buyer's market driven by rational consumer behavior, excess capacity, and technological advancements, leading to the rise of high-cost performance retail formats such as hard discount stores [1] - The growth of high-cost performance and essential high-frequency chain formats is notable, with snack wholesale stores experiencing significant market expansion [2] - The decline in rental prices and the slowdown of online growth have opened new opportunities for quality chain formats, particularly community-based essential businesses [3] - Leading companies are adopting a common strategy of expanding store size and product categories to enhance operational efficiency in response to lower rental costs [4] Group 1 - The retail landscape is undergoing a transformation with a focus on community, small-scale, specialized, and discount-oriented formats, with hard discount retail being a prominent global trend [1] - Snack wholesale stores have seen their market size surge from 10.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 129.7 billion yuan by 2024, with leading companies like Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group surpassing 10,000 stores [2] - The rental market is under pressure, particularly in third-tier cities, providing cost advantages for offline chain formats, while online penetration rates are stabilizing between 24%-26% [3] Group 2 - Companies are leveraging the opportunity of declining rents by increasing store sizes and expanding product offerings, which enhances overall operational efficiency [4] - The investment outlook remains positive for snack wholesale industries, with recommendations for companies like Wancheng Group and Mingming Hen Mang due to their high certainty and growth potential [5] - Companies like Guoquan and Babi Food are highlighted for their innovative strategies and potential for expansion, particularly in the small dumpling store format [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - Recent policies have strengthened consumer expectations, leading to marginal improvements in consumption during the Spring Festival peak season. The performance of high-end liquor, particularly Moutai, has rebounded, and the stability in pricing has improved market sentiment [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the food and beverage sector, driven by improved domestic demand and consumption patterns as the Spring Festival approaches [4][7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor stocks with price elasticity, recommending companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. It also identifies potential stocks for gradual clearance, including Yingjia Gongjiu and Gujing Gongjiu [7] - Beverage companies are expected to benefit from favorable travel conditions, with recommendations for Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring. Low valuation and high dividend stocks like China Foods and Master Kong are also highlighted [7] - For snacks and food raw materials, recommended stocks include Bailong Chuangyuan and Weilong [7] - Beer recommendations include Qingdao Beer and Zhujiang Beer, while condiment and catering sectors are expected to recover, with recommendations for Qianhe Flavor Industry and Baoli Food [7] Liquor Sector Insights - The high-end liquor sector is leading market sentiment, with Moutai's sales data boosting confidence. The report notes that Moutai's monthly active users exceeded 15.31 million, with over 2.12 million orders in January [8][9] - The liquor industry is currently at a cyclical bottom, with expectations for recovery in sales and pricing as the Spring Festival approaches. Positive trends in inventory and demand could catalyze stock prices further [9] Consumer Goods Insights - The approval of D-allohexose-3-epimerase as a food additive is expected to expand the market for this product, benefiting leading companies like Bailong Chuangyuan. The report anticipates significant growth potential for this company [10][11] - The catering supply chain is expected to recover, with companies like Baobi Food showing promising growth driven by new store formats. The report notes Baobi's revenue of 1.859 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.22% [11]

东吴证券研报指出，巴比食品25年营收稳健增长，26年有望再提速。营收稳健增长，内生改善+外延并 购+小笼包堂食店新店型多项并进。加盟业务稳健复苏，2025Q2单店收入转正，Q2起外卖平台补贴带 动线上订单高增。进入2025H2，公司开始试点小笼包新店型，经市场验证成效显著，有望成为业绩增 长新引擎。2025Q3起试点小笼包堂食新店型，提升客单价与复购率，有望在2026年规模化复制。公司 传统门店触底向上，通过并购加码，为中期万店目标助力，同时小笼包新店型经市场验证成效显著可展 开招商，三个方向可共享供应链，实现协同发展，释放规模效应。维持"买入"评级。 ...

华源证券研报指出，巴比食品2025年经营平稳收官，新店型加速开店可期。25年实现归母净利润2.73亿 元，同比-1.3%，其中，2025Q4归母净利润0.72亿元，同比-12.7%。主要系公司注重精细化管理、新品 研发及供应链管理优化，有效控制原材料成本，从而实现成本费用合理下降。内生+并购双轮驱动成 长，26年新店型加速开店可期。公司顺利完成南京"青露"（旗下500多家门店）、浙江"馒乡人"（旗下 约250家门店）等项目并购，进一步完善区域市场布局。鉴于公司内生+外延稳健增长，且新店型带来 开店提速预期，故维持"买入"评级。 ...

证券研究报告 食品饮料 | 食品加工 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 04 日 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | | 2026 | 年 | 02 | 月 | 04 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 28.63 | | | 一 年 内 最 低 | 高 | / | 最 | | | | 34.10/16.68 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 6,858.79 | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 6,858.79 | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | | 239.57 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | | | 19.34 | | | 每股净资产（元/股） | | | | | | | | 9.46 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | | | | 巴比食 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the financial performance of Babi Foods in 2025, showcasing both revenue growth and a decline in net profit, while also detailing the company's strategic initiatives and challenges faced during the year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Babi Foods achieved an operating revenue of 1.859 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately 273 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.30% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was about 245 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.49% [1] Asset and Equity Growth - As of the end of 2025, Babi Foods reported total assets of 2.8967 billion yuan, which is a 1.53% increase compared to the beginning of the reporting period [1] - The equity attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 2.3374 billion yuan, marking a 3.18% increase from the start of the reporting period [1] Strategic Initiatives - During the reporting period, the company actively pursued business expansion and integration, enhancing its national layout with a steady increase in franchise store numbers [1] - Babi Foods successfully completed acquisitions of projects such as "Qinglu" in Nanjing and "Manxiangren" in Zhejiang, further improving its regional market layout [1] - The company focused on lean improvement, new product development, and supply chain management optimization, effectively controlling raw material costs and enhancing overall operational efficiency [1] Investment Impact - The company's indirect holdings in Dongpeng Beverage (Group) Co., Ltd. experienced a decrease in fair value changes and investment income by a total of 93.82 million yuan compared to the same period last year, leading to a decline in operating profit, total profit, and net profit [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth over 25 years, with expectations for acceleration in 2026. Revenue is projected to reach RMB 2,154 million in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.85% [1] - The company is focusing on internal improvements, external acquisitions, and the introduction of a new store model for its dumplings, which are expected to drive growth [8] - Profit margins are in line with expectations, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 13.2% in 2025, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower pork costs and improved capacity utilization [8] - The company is expected to scale its new store model in 2026, which has shown promising results in the market, and further acquisitions will enhance its revenue structure and risk resilience [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be RMB 1,859 million in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, and RMB 2,154 million in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 15.85% [1][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 273.06 million in 2025, a decrease of 1.28% year-on-year, and RMB 327.04 million in 2026, an increase of 19.77% [1][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 1.14 in 2025 and RMB 1.37 in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.29 and 22.78 [1][9]

Core Viewpoint - Baba Foods (605338.SH) experienced performance fluctuations due to stock trading impacts, with a reported revenue of 1.859 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.22%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.3% to 273 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - In 2025, Baba Foods achieved a total asset of 2.897 billion yuan, a growth of 1.53% from the beginning of the year, and equity attributable to shareholders increased by 3.18% to 2.337 billion yuan [1] - The company reported fair value changes from 2022 to 2024, with gains of 35.1152 million yuan, 14.1611 million yuan, and 91.1632 million yuan, primarily from indirect holdings in Dongpeng Beverage stocks [2] - The net profit for Baba Foods from 2022 to 2024 showed fluctuations, with figures of 222.3 million yuan, 214 million yuan, and 277 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -29.06%, -4.04%, and 29.42% respectively [2] Business Development - In 2025, Baba Foods focused on business expansion and integration, achieving steady growth in its core operations, with a significant increase in franchise store numbers and successful acquisitions in Nanjing and Zhejiang [3] - As of September 2025, the total number of franchise stores reached 5,934, with a net increase of 791 stores, and the company added 33 new distributors in the East China region [3] - Sales revenue from franchise, direct stores, and group meal channels accounted for 74.72%, 1.25%, and 22.63% respectively in the first nine months of 2025 [3]