本周一市场全天震荡调整，指数分化明显，商业航天、半导体等热门板块回调，有色、油气、光伏、化工板块领涨。热门半导体设备ETF （561980）单日下跌3.48%，但资金逆势流入，连续8个交易日获得净申购超5.6亿元，最新规模36.20亿元，年内份额增长21.3%。 行业分布上，中证半导高度聚焦本轮半导体上行周期核心受益的"卖铲子"环节，"设备"含量近60%；半导体设备+材料+集成电路设计三大行业 占比超90%，均为国产替代的攻坚领域，或有望持续受到市场、国家基金以及自主可控相关政策的关注。 东海证券指出，受益于AI基建加快，目前存储涨价仍在持续。根据TrendForce数据，包括DRAM和NANDFlash在内的存储器产业产值逐年创 高，预估2026年将同比增长134%达到5516亿美元，2027年则将继续同比增长53%达到8427亿美元。 此外，同样受益于AI热潮，服务器CPU需求增长，头部大厂英特尔、AMD的服务器CPU的供应开始出现紧缺和涨价，考虑将2026Q1服务器 CPU均价调涨10-15%。 国内相关A股标的受益于此，预估2025全年业绩实现大幅增长。半导体设备ETF（561980）第一权重股中微公 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index, which has achieved a cumulative increase of over 161% since its base date, with an annualized return of 17.93%, significantly outperforming similar indices such as the Sci-Tech Innovation Entrepreneur Semiconductor and the National Chip Index [3][12][13]. Performance Metrics - The Sci-Tech Chip Index has a higher annualized Sharpe ratio and lower maximum drawdown compared to its peers, indicating a better risk-reward profile [3][12]. - The maximum drawdown for the Sci-Tech Chip Index is less severe at -56.81%, compared to -60.05% for the Sci-Tech Innovation Entrepreneur Semiconductor Index [4][12]. Industry Composition - The index is heavily weighted towards integrated circuits, which account for 72.77% of its composition, significantly higher than other similar indices [6][14]. - The index includes companies involved in semiconductor materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing, reflecting the overall performance of the representative chip industry on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [14][15]. Financial Growth - The index's net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 94.22% year-on-year, leading among similar indices [17]. - The R&D investment in the chip industry on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board exceeded 119.7 billion yuan, with an R&D intensity of 11.22%, far surpassing the overall A-share market level of 2.16% [7][17]. Top Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include: - Zhongke International (10.36%) - Haiguang Information (10.05%) - Cambricon Technologies (9.45%) - Lattice Semiconductor (7.73%) - Zhongwei Company (6.85%) [14][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Insights - The "hard technology" sector is expected to perform well under the influence of AI, with domestic computing chips, AI-PCB, AIDC supporting facilities, and AI edge SoC chip design/testing showing rapid growth in 2024 and maintaining high growth in Q1-Q3 of 2025 [4] - The valuation system of the technology industry is likely to be restructured due to the ongoing competition between major powers, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing, equipment, and design, which are areas of low domestic production [4] - Computing power remains the most important theme for the year, with a focus on AI-PCB and AI optical modules, suggesting investment in companies like Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and others [4] - Some consumer electronics stocks, particularly those in the "Apple supply chain," are seen as having good value due to recent price corrections, with potential for performance and valuation recovery driven by AIoT and automotive electronics [4] Summary by Sections AI and Computing Power - The demand for AI computing technology is increasing, with PCB manufacturers achieving significant breakthroughs in AI server applications [22] - The market for AI chips is expected to grow, with the Chinese market projected to reach approximately 342.46 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a 10.7% year-on-year growth [44] Semiconductor and PCB Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards more diverse application scenarios, with automotive electronics and IoT driving growth [18] - The PCB equipment market is expected to reach 29.025 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 11.89% year-on-year, and is projected to reach 34.709 billion yuan by 2026 [27] Consumer Electronics - The CIS market is recovering, driven by demand from smartphones, security, and automotive sectors, with a focus on high-end products [46] - AI is providing new growth potential for consumer electronics, with ODM companies gaining competitive advantages [47]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment leader, Zhongwei Company, has achieved a significant turnaround in its operating performance, with multiple key performance indicators expected to break records in 2025, including revenue exceeding 12.385 billion yuan and net profit surpassing 2 billion yuan for the first time [1][4]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2025, Zhongwei Company anticipates revenue of approximately 12.385 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of about 36.62% [1][3]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 2.08 billion and 2.18 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 28.74% to 34.93% [3][4]. - The revenue growth is primarily driven by strong sales of core products, particularly etching equipment, which is expected to generate around 9.832 billion yuan, accounting for 79.39% of total revenue [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The surge in demand for advanced products and the successful mass production of these products are key factors contributing to the revenue growth [2][4]. - Zhongwei Company has also benefited from selling part of its holdings in listed companies, leading to an increase in investment income, with estimated non-recurring gains from equity investments of 611 million yuan in 2025 [4]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, which is expected to exceed 3.736 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for approximately 30% of its revenue [5][6]. Group 3: R&D Investment and Innovation - Zhongwei Company's R&D investment has seen rapid growth, with expenditures increasing from 1.262 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.452 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 82.09% [5][6]. - The company has developed over ten new types of conductor and dielectric film equipment in the past two years, with several products already entering the market and receiving repeat orders [5][6]. - Zhongwei maintains a leading position in the international GaN-based MOCVD equipment market and is actively developing specialized MOCVD equipment for applications in micro-LED and other display fields [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Insights - The "hard technology" sector is expected to perform well under the influence of AI, with domestic computing chips, AI-PCB, AIDC supporting facilities, and AI edge SoC chip design/testing showing rapid growth in 2024 and maintaining high growth in Q1-Q3 of 2025. This sector is projected to benefit from continued growth in domestic computing capital investment and increasing penetration of edge applications, becoming one of the fastest-growing areas in the electronics and technology industries [4] - The valuation system of the technology industry is likely to be restructured due to the ongoing competition between major powers, particularly in the semiconductor manufacturing and equipment sectors, where the domestic production ratio is currently low. Companies such as Cambricon, SMIC, North Huachuang, Haiguang Information, and Zhongwei Company are recommended for attention [4] - Computing power remains the most important theme for the year, with a focus on AI-PCB (semiconductors) and AI optical modules. Companies like Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and others are highlighted for their potential [4] - Some consumer electronics stocks, particularly those in the "Apple supply chain," have become more cost-effective due to macroeconomic impacts on stock prices. Leading companies in the fruit chain and ODM sectors are expected to leverage demand in AIoT, humanoid robots, and automotive electronics to achieve performance and valuation improvements in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Sections AI and Computing Power - The demand for AI computing technology is increasing, leading to significant breakthroughs for PCB manufacturers in the AI server field. The overall market for AI chips is expected to grow, with China being a major consumer market [18][22] - The AI-driven demand for computing power is pushing the development of various applications, including automotive electronics and IoT, which are expected to drive growth in the chip industry [18] Semiconductor and Equipment - The semiconductor manufacturing sector is projected to see substantial growth, with companies like SMIC and North Huachuang showing promising revenue and profit growth rates [17] - The PCB equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 290.25 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 347.09 billion yuan by 2026 [27] Consumer Electronics - The CIS market is experiencing a recovery, driven by demand from smartphones, security, and automotive applications. Domestic manufacturers are increasing their market presence with high-end products [46] - The SoC market is expected to grow, with AI technology becoming a crucial component for various applications, including smart home devices and automotive electronics [44]

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|电子 2026 年 1 月 26 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] AI 的 Memory 时刻 5 | | | | AI NAND | 供需紧张，涨价仍有弹性 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 王亮 | 分析师： | 耿正 | 分析师： | 焦鼎 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519060001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520090002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120003 | | | SFC CE.no: BFS478 | | | | | | | 021-38003658 | | 021-38003660 | | 021-38003658 | | | gfwangliang@gf.com.cn | | gengzheng@gf.com.cn | | jiaoding@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 张大伟 | | | | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050001 | | | | | | | 02 ...

美国最怕的事情发生了！81岁国产芯片设备巨头中微公司董事长尹志尧，放弃美国籍，恢复中国籍，带 队攻克2纳米刻蚀机！外媒："在刻蚀这个核心环节，中国已经坐上全球牌桌！" 比身份转变更让对手胆寒的，是实打实的技术反杀。 攻克2纳米刻蚀机是什么概念？这难度好比在米粒上雕琢10亿个汉字，容错率极低，误差不得超过头发 丝的百万分之一。 眼看中国半导体设备越做越强，他们祭出的"禁人令"非但没卡住中国脖子，反倒逼出了一个更狠的决 定，81岁的中微公司董事长尹志尧，直接放弃美国籍，恢复中国籍，带队攻克2纳米刻蚀机！ 然而，此间的博弈，其凶险程度远非表面那般云淡风轻。暗潮涌动之下，潜藏着难以想象的危机，远比 肉眼所见的表象要惊心动魄得多。 早在2022年，美方就处心积虑地铺开了大网，明令禁止美籍人员未经授权染指中国先进制程半导体的研 发，妄图用国籍充当"锁链"，困住中国的技术领军者。 尹志尧深耕硅谷数载，名下坐拥86项美国专利，全球半数的刻蚀设备都留有他的技术烙印。这种级别的 掌舵人若被束缚，中微无异于被扼住了咽喉。 岂料，这一招对他根本无效！ 2024年，尹志尧以决绝之势，果断斩断了与美国之间的国籍羁绊，展现出非凡的抉择勇气 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index fell by 1.14% as of January 26, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, where Chipone Technology led with a 10.01% increase [1] - Samsung Electronics has raised the price of its NAND flash memory by more than 100% in the first quarter of this year, significantly exceeding market expectations, and is currently negotiating a new round of NAND pricing with clients for the second quarter, with expectations of continued price increases [1] - Zhongshan Securities forecasts that the AI-related industry will maintain a favorable outlook in 2026, with accelerated domestic production expected to create opportunities in the domestic semiconductor industry, and predicts over 40% growth in capital expenditure from cloud computing giants [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index as of December 31, 2025, include SMIC, Haiguang Information, Cambricon, and others, accounting for a total of 57.76% of the index [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index, serving as a convenient tool for investing in the chip sector [2] - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities in domestic chips through the Sci-Tech Chip ETF linked fund (017470) [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment (AMEC) [6]. Core Insights - AMEC's preliminary results for 2025 indicate a net profit increase of 29%-35% year-over-year, reaching Rmb2.08 billion to Rmb2.18 billion, with the midpoint aligning with Bloomberg consensus but exceeding CitiE by 12% due to higher investment income [1]. - Despite a contraction in gross profit margin (GPM) by 1.8 percentage points year-over-year, AMEC's gross profit rose by 31% year-over-year to Rmb4.87 billion, driven by a 37% increase in etching machine revenue and a 224% increase in film deposition equipment revenue [1][2]. - The report highlights that AMEC's High Aspect Ratio (HAR) etching machines have entered mass production for advanced logic and memory clients in China, with total etching machine shipments reaching 6,800 units by the end of 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Earnings Summary - For 2025, AMEC's net profit is projected at Rmb1.902 billion, with a diluted EPS of Rmb3.058, reflecting a 17.6% growth [4]. - The expected P/E ratio for 2025 is 120.2, with a P/B ratio of 10.7 and an ROE of 9.2% [4]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The report indicates that AMEC's revenue for 2025 is expected to grow by 37% year-over-year, with net profit growth of 29%-35% [9]. - In 4Q25, net profit growth remained strong at 31% year-over-year, despite a slowdown in top-line growth to 21% year-over-year from 51% in 3Q25 [2]. Market Position and Outlook - AMEC is positioned as a key beneficiary of the ongoing import replacement trend in China and the expansion of its semiconductor equipment product portfolio [8]. - The report suggests a solid outlook for AMEC despite GPM pressures, indicating confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4].

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry in Greater China is experiencing a structural shift towards local equipment driven by strategic localization and domestic AI demand. Memory expansion may moderate temporarily in the first half of 2026, but breakthroughs in critical tools and repatriation of AI demand are expected to support this shift [1][4]. Key Insights Market Growth Projections - The 2026 wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market growth forecast for China has been raised to 4% year-over-year (Y/Y), reaching approximately US$41 billion, driven by robust capital expenditures (capex) for domestic memory and advanced-node capacity [2][9]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 16% Y/Y, primarily due to demand from DRAM and TSMC [2]. Memory Sector Developments - ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) plans to invest approximately Rmb34.5 billion (US$4.9 billion) over three years, aiming for a capacity addition of around 50,000 wafers per month (wpm) [2]. - CXMT is focusing on higher localization for its Gen4B (1z node) to mitigate risks from restricted access to US equipment, with phased procurement expected to accelerate once pilot-line yields stabilize [2][20]. Advanced Node Equipment - Domestic AI chip designers are repatriating supply chains to mainland China, leading to robust demand for high-performance AI computing over the next two years. Advanced-node equipment localization remains below 10%, but local vendors like Naura and AMEC are making significant progress in critical bottleneck tools [3][10]. Mature Node Market Dynamics - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of mature-node foundry capex in China, with some government-backed projects facing utilization pressure amid soft demand. However, domestic players are well-positioned to consolidate market share due to rapid technical progress and aggressive pricing [4]. Stock Implications - Recommendations include maintaining an "Overweight" (OW) rating on Naura, AMEC, and ACMR, with revised price targets reflecting expected growth in the semiconductor equipment sector [4][15][16]. - **Naura**: Price target raised to Rmb550 from Rmb480, with expected EPS growth of 6% and 7% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [15][69]. - **AMEC**: Price target increased to Rmb400 from Rmb320, with anticipated EPS growth of 12% and 18% for 2026 and 2027 [16]. - **ACMR**: Price target raised to US$58 from US$40, with projected revenue growth driven by China's memory capacity ramp [16]. Additional Insights - The localization rate for advanced-node manufacturing in China is expected to remain low, with domestic WFE players expanding their portfolios to cover more wafer processes [11][34]. - The supply chain for leading-edge equipment is adapting, with Japanese and domestic alternatives covering most tool categories, reducing reliance on US-origin equipment [10][34]. - The IPO filings of CXMT and YMTC are anticipated to strengthen their capital positions, supporting long-term capacity expansion [19][20]. Conclusion The Greater China semiconductor industry is poised for growth driven by localization efforts and increasing domestic demand for AI and memory technologies. Key players are expected to benefit from these trends, with stock recommendations reflecting positive outlooks based on anticipated market dynamics and company performance.