海外科技巨头业绩不及预期，美股率先调整 开源证券近日发布电子行业周报：本周（2025.12.8-2025.12.12）电子行业指数涨1.36%，其中半导体领 涨3.30%。光学光电子跌1.23%，消费电子跌1.39%；海外科技方面，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦 基金利率目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期。但由于甲骨文以及博通业绩会交流不及预期，海 外科技大幅下跌，费城半导体下跌3.58%、英伟达跌4.05%、博通跌7.77%、特斯拉涨0.87%、Meta跌 4.33%、苹果跌0.18%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 合肥长鑫今年7月已经开始辅导。我们预计明年长鑫长存扩产将会有较高的同比增速，叠加先进逻辑厂 商的持续扩产，建议关注半导体设备的投资机会。 本周（2025.12.8-2025.12.12）电子行业指数涨1.36%，其中半导体领涨3.30%。光学光电子跌1.23%，消 费电子跌1.39%；海外科技方面，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至 3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期。但由于甲骨文以及博通业绩会交流不及预期，海外科技大幅下跌，费城 半导体下跌3.58%、英伟达跌4. ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 开源晨会 1216 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 1.594 | | 商贸零售 | 1.489 | | 农林牧渔 | 1.240 | | 钢铁 | 0.911 | | 建筑材料 | 0.907 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 电子 | -2.423 | | 通信 | -1.891 | | 传媒 | -1.633 | | 机械设备 | -1.363 | | 计算机 | -1.266 | 观点精粹 总量视角 【固定收益】社融新增超市场预期，信贷数据结构分化——2025 年 11 月金融数 据点评-20251215 行业公司 【电子】半导体设备自主可控是当下强确定性和弹性兼备科技主线——行业周报 -20251215 【商贸零售】11 月社零同比+1.3%，整体增速有所承压——行 ...

行 业 研 半导体设备自主可控是当下强确定性和弹性兼备科 技主线 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 72% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 电子 沪深300 相关研究报告 《AI 端侧产品密集出新，国产算力初 创公司资本化加速—行业周报》 -2025.12.7 《Gemini 3.0 强化 TPU 降本逻辑，AI 眼镜有望迈向起量元年—行业周报》 -2025.11.30 《NV 业绩强劲、谷歌发布 Gemini3， 算力景气度持续验证—行业周报》 -2025.11.23 陈蓉芳（分析师） 陈瑜熙（分析师） chenrongfang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524120002 chenyuxi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525020003 海外科技巨头业绩不及预期，美股率先调整 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 3 本周（2025.12.8-2025.12.12）电子行业指数涨 1.36%，其中半导体领涨 3.30%。 光学光电子跌 1.23%，消费电子跌 1.39%；海外 ...

Group 1 - The storage chip sector is experiencing a price surge, with a 50% price increase in memory prices expected by early 2025, and a projected 30% increase in Q4 2024, followed by a potential 20% rise in early 2025 [3] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has seen a net inflow of 211 million yuan over the last five trading days, with a year-to-date share increase of 96.6%, bringing its latest scale to 2.75 billion yuan [1][3] - The semiconductor industry index has risen by 53.42% year-to-date, ranking first among major semiconductor indices, with a maximum increase exceeding 80% [6][7] Group 2 - Nvidia plans to use mobile-grade memory chips in its AI servers, which could lead to a doubling of server memory prices by the end of 2026 [3] - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from a "price cycle" and "product iteration cycle," leading to higher capital expenditures and sustained order growth for upstream equipment companies [3] - Major semiconductor events, such as ICCAD-Expo 2025 and the China International Semiconductor Expo, are set to take place, attracting leading companies from around the world [5] Group 3 - SMIC's 8-inch monthly production capacity has surpassed 1 million wafers for the first time, with a utilization rate of 95.8%, indicating strong demand for analog and storage orders [5] - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a robust recovery, with the China Securities Index reporting a 32.12% year-on-year revenue growth and a 27.12% increase in net profit for Q3 2025 [7][8] - The top ten components of the semiconductor equipment ETF account for over 78% of the index, focusing on key domestic innovations in the semiconductor supply chain [8]

Group 1: North Exchange Market Insights - The North Exchange is witnessing its second major asset restructuring, with Chuangyuan Xinke planning to acquire 100% equity of Shanghai Weiyu Tiandao Technology for a total price not exceeding 900 million yuan, at a price of 18.88 yuan per share [2][5][6] - The North Exchange market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with average weekly trading volume dropping to 22.2 billion yuan and the North Exchange 50 index declining by 3.11% [6][7] - Despite the current market challenges, there is optimism for a rebound post the National Day holiday, driven by ongoing mergers and acquisitions and the implementation of new policies [6][7] Group 2: Media Industry Overview - Mango TV has launched a new singing talent show, "Voice Rising 2025," in collaboration with multiple major provincial TV stations and online platforms, marking a unique cooperative production model in the industry [9][10] - The new broadcasting policies are expected to revitalize the long-form drama market, with Mango TV's rich content reserve likely to enhance membership growth and viewer engagement [10][11] - The company anticipates revenue growth driven by advertising and increased viewership from its upcoming shows, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 at 14.22 billion, 15.26 billion, and 16.65 billion yuan respectively [12] Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment Sector - Fuchuang Precision is a leading manufacturer of precision components for semiconductor equipment, focusing on metal materials and expanding production capacity in multiple locations including Shenyang, Nantong, Beijing, and Singapore [13][14][15] - The global semiconductor wafer capacity is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2024 to 2028, with significant demand driven by advanced process expansions [15] - The company aims to strengthen its full-chain advantages through independent research and development, enhancing its position in the domestic semiconductor equipment market [16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the semiconductor equipment parts sector [5][7]. Core Views - The company is a leader in semiconductor equipment precision components, focusing on platform-based construction to create advantages across the entire supply chain [5][9]. - The global semiconductor wafer capacity is expected to grow significantly, driving demand for semiconductor equipment and components, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2024 to 2028 for 12-inch wafer capacity [6][9]. - The company has established a strong technical foundation through independent research and development, enhancing its ability to provide comprehensive precision component solutions [6][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price is 72.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of 22,157.41 million yuan and a circulating market value of 12,823.17 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 2,066 million yuan (2023), 3,040 million yuan (2024), 4,010 million yuan (2025E), 5,286 million yuan (2026E), and 6,951 million yuan (2027E), with growth rates of 33.75%, 47.14%, 31.94%, 31.80%, and 31.51% respectively [5][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 169 million yuan (2023), 203 million yuan (2024), 276 million yuan (2025), 448 million yuan (2026), and 633 million yuan (2027), with growth rates of -31.33%, 20.13%, 36.39%, 62.11%, and 41.27% respectively [5][7]. Company Overview - The company, founded in 2008, specializes in precision manufacturing of semiconductor equipment components, with a focus on metal materials [6][14]. - It has expanded its production capacity in multiple locations, including Shenyang, Nantong, Beijing, and Singapore, to enhance its supply capabilities [6][23]. Product Lines - The company’s main products include precision components for semiconductor equipment, categorized into mechanical and electromechanical components, and gas transmission systems [6][16]. - The mechanical and electromechanical components are expected to see revenue growth rates of 25.50%, 26.20%, and 26.30% from 2025 to 2027 [8]. Competitive Landscape - The semiconductor equipment parts market is projected to benefit from the expansion of wafer capacity, with the global semiconductor equipment sales expected to reach 125.5 billion USD in 2025, a 7.4% increase year-on-year [9][56]. - The company aims to enhance domestic semiconductor equipment independence by achieving mass production of critical components [6][65].

Summary of Semiconductor Equipment Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor equipment industry is experiencing accelerated self-sufficiency in China due to geopolitical tensions and licensing restrictions, making it a key area for investment focus [1][2][3] - The global semiconductor equipment market exceeds $100 billion, with key segments including photolithography, thin film deposition, etching, metrology, cleaning, and stripping [4] Key Points and Arguments - **Photolithography**: This is the most critical subfield within semiconductor equipment. China is currently in a breakthrough phase from 0 to 1, but high-end DUV and EUV photolithography machines are blocked from import due to U.S. sanctions, creating urgent domestic replacement demand [1][5][10] - **Thin Film Deposition**: Domestic companies like Tuojing Technology, Huachuang, and Zhongwei have achieved high localization rates in CVD, PVD, and ALD technologies, indicating significant progress in self-sufficiency [1][6] - **Etching Technology**: Companies such as Zhongwei and Huachuang have made notable advancements in CCP and ICP etching technologies, achieving a high level of self-sufficiency [1][7] - **Metrology Equipment**: The domestic localization rate is low (below 15%), with companies like Zhongke Feimeasure and Jingce Electronics making some breakthroughs, but large-scale production will take time [1][8] - **Back-end Testing and Sorting Equipment**: Companies like Changchuan Technology and Jinhai Tong have made significant progress and show strong profitability in this area [1][9] Market Catalysts - The establishment of Changjiang Storage's third phase marks a new stage in capacity expansion, positively impacting future capital expenditures [3] - The revocation of certain licenses for wafer fabs in China by the U.S. has increased the difficulty for foreign companies to produce chips in China, further driving the need for domestic semiconductor equipment and materials [3] Demand Dynamics - **Advanced Logic and Storage Expansion**: Domestic wafer foundries are investing steadily in mature processes, while demand for advanced processes, particularly AI computing chips, is high but supply is insufficient [11][12] - **Storage Sector**: The expansion in NAND and DRAM is robust, with Changxin Storage's third phase expected to generate hundreds of billions of RMB in domestic equipment demand. The urgent need for DRAM, especially HBM, will significantly boost related packaging production [13] Investment Opportunities - Focus on platform companies (e.g., Beifang Huachuang, Zhongwei) and specialized companies (e.g., Zhongke Feimeasure, Jingce Electronics) as well as photolithography-related enterprises [2][15] - The slow progress in the localization of semiconductor equipment components presents potential investment opportunities, especially as AI technology drives industry growth [16] Characteristics of Semiconductor Equipment Components Market - The market for semiconductor equipment components is characterized by small batch sizes, diverse products, customization, and variability. Companies with expansion potential and platform logic are expected to grow into quality enterprises [17] Specific Types of Components to Watch - Recommended focus on components such as pipelines, valves, ceramic parts, machined parts, and spray heads, as well as photolithography-related components, which may present investment opportunities [18]

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the continuous supervision and assessment of Jiangsu Pioneer Precision Technology Co., Ltd. by Huatai United Securities as the sponsor for its initial public offering on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, highlighting the company's operational status and risk factors. Group 1: Risk Factors - The company faces significant technical risks, including the inability to keep pace with technological upgrades in the semiconductor equipment precision components industry, which is technology-intensive [2] - There is a risk of talent loss and core technology leakage due to increasing market demand and competition, which could undermine the company's competitive edge [3] - Management and internal control risks arise from rapid company expansion, which increases operational complexity and management challenges [4] - The increase in accounts receivable and fluctuations in cash flow pose risks to the company's liquidity and operational performance [5][6] - The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry can impact the company's performance, especially during downturns when demand for semiconductor equipment may decline [6] - Intensifying market competition could lead to price reductions and decreased profitability if the company fails to enhance its R&D and product performance [7] - Changes in industrial policies related to the semiconductor sector may adversely affect the company's performance [8] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced revenue growth due to the advancement of domestic production processes and downstream market demand [10] - However, total profit and net profit attributable to shareholders saw slight declines, primarily due to capacity expansion and increased employee costs [10] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company maintains a strong technical advantage through continuous innovation and optimization of manufacturing processes, with capabilities in precision mechanical manufacturing and surface treatment technologies [12] - The product portfolio includes critical components for semiconductor equipment, establishing a significant market position in the industry [13] - A robust customer base has been developed through long-term partnerships with leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers, enhancing trust and collaboration [13] Group 4: R&D Investment - R&D expenditures increased by 7.29% year-on-year to 34.49 million yuan, representing 5.27% of revenue, with a significant rise in R&D personnel [15] - The company completed 21 patent applications during the reporting period, with 7 patents granted, showcasing its commitment to innovation [16] Group 5: Fundraising and Usage - The company raised approximately 571.22 million yuan through its IPO, with net proceeds of about 512.22 million yuan after deducting fees [19] - As of June 30, 2025, the balance of the fundraising account was approximately 374.29 million yuan, indicating effective fund management [20] - The company has adhered to regulations regarding the use of raised funds, ensuring compliance and efficiency in fund allocation [21]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance and market position of North China Huachuang, a leading domestic semiconductor equipment company, which reported a stock price of 329.09 yuan on August 8, down 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.201 billion yuan [1] - North China Huachuang's main business includes semiconductor equipment, vacuum equipment, and new energy lithium battery equipment, with products widely used in high-tech industries such as integrated circuits, advanced packaging, LED, and photovoltaics [1] - Industry data indicates that global semiconductor equipment sales are expected to reach 125.5 billion USD by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [1] Group 2 - The domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are facing development opportunities amid the accelerated localization process, with the domestic localization rate in sectors like etching equipment and thin film deposition exceeding 20%, while there is still significant room for improvement in areas such as lithography equipment [1] - On August 8, the net outflow of main funds was 164 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 389 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating a shrinking market trading activity [1] - The current stock price is positioned between the five-day and sixty-day moving averages, reflecting a trend of reduced market trading volume [1]