Summary of Leader Harmonious Drive Systems 3Q25 Earnings Briefing Company Overview - **Company**: Leader Harmonious Drive Systems - **Industry**: Industrial Robotics and Automation - **Date of Briefing**: November 3, 2025 Key Points Market Position and Growth - Leaderdrive is gaining market share despite a decline in industry profitability, with large orders from two of the global big four industrial robot makers [2] - The company claims a significant share in the humanoid robotics market and anticipates continued fast growth into 2026, driven by demand from leading humanoid integrators [2][4] - Humanoid products currently account for 15-20% of production, with expectations for further increases in 2026 [9] Product Development and Innovation - Leaderdrive has developed self-machining tools that allow for P0 precision level screws, with ongoing optimization for miniature harmonic reducers [3] - Management believes harmonic reducers are the best solution for humanoids due to their size, precision, and output, with no significant client demand for alternative solutions [4] - The company is confident in the performance of miniature harmonic reducers for dexterous hands, despite their high cost [4] Financial Performance - The company reported margin expansion in 3Q25, supported by scale, improved product structure, and new applications with higher prices [9] - Revenue projections for the fiscal years ending in 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb387 million, Rmb535 million, Rmb691 million, and Rmb861 million respectively [8] - EBITDA is expected to grow from Rmb113 million in 2024 to Rmb242 million in 2027 [8] Capacity and Production - Harmonic reducer annual capacity is projected to ramp up to 1 million units by the end of 2025 [9] - Traditional applications are expected to grow by 10-20% in 2026, with opportunities for market share gains [9] Valuation and Risks - The base case valuation uses a DCF model for humanoid reducer and planetary roller screw segments, estimating a segment value of Rmb114 per share [10] - Risks to upside include stronger-than-expected robot demand and faster humanoid robot adoption, while risks to downside include slower-than-expected humanoid development [12] Stock Performance - As of November 3, 2025, the stock price was Rmb159.50, with a price target of Rmb153.00, indicating a potential downside of 4% [8] Additional Insights - The company is viewed as a leading producer of harmonic reducers in China, with ongoing development in humanoid hardware solutions [4] - Management expects price and margin to gradually decline and then stabilize as production volumes increase [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the precision reducer industry, indicating a strong outlook for growth and investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The precision reducer is a critical component in humanoid and industrial robots, significantly impacting their performance. The market for precision reducers is expected to see substantial growth, particularly driven by the humanoid robot sector, which could generate hundreds of billions in market space by 2030 [2][5]. - The domestic production of precision reducers is on the rise, supported by government policies and technological advancements, leading to an increase in the localization rate of these components [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Reducers - Reducers are essential components in the transmission field, responsible for reducing speed and increasing torque, with widespread applications across various industries [14]. - The Chinese reducer market is projected to reach 1,447 billion yuan by 2024, maintaining a growth rate of around 5% [15]. 2. Precision Reducers in Robotics - Precision reducers account for 35% of the cost in industrial robots and approximately 16% in humanoid robots, making them a significant cost component [3][26]. - The precision reducer market is expected to grow steadily, with the harmonic reducer market in China projected to reach 33.2 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 15.47% from 2023 to 2025 [4][32]. 3. Demand Growth and Technological Breakthroughs - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to exceed 20 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 56.99% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a substantial increase in demand for precision reducers [5][62]. - Domestic manufacturers are closing the gap with international standards through technological advancements, enhancing their competitiveness in the precision reducer market [5][54]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic leading companies in the harmonic and precision planetary reducer sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growing humanoid robot market and ongoing domestic substitution trends [5][8].

Market Performance - The automation equipment sector increased by 2.11% on November 6, with Bojie Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42, up 1.73% [1] Top Gainers in Automation Equipment Sector - Bojie Co., Ltd. (002975) closed at 76.26, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 115,200 shares and a transaction value of 850 million [1] - Haixi Communications (920405) closed at 24.70, up 7.63% with a trading volume of 84,500 shares [1] - Kaidi Co., Ltd. (605288) closed at 91.15, up 7.55% with a trading volume of 24,200 shares [1] - Other notable gainers include Green Harmonics (688017) at 160.90 (+6.91%) and Saiteng Co., Ltd. (603283) at 48.76 (+5.61%) [1] Market Capital Flow - The automation equipment sector saw a net inflow of 600 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 358 million [2][3] - The top net inflow stocks included Huagong Technology (000988) with a net inflow of 16.41 million [3] - Bojie Co., Ltd. (002975) had a net inflow of 54.80 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 40.11 million from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The industrial robot production in China reached 595,000 units in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.8%, surpassing the total production for 2024 [6]. - Domestic brands have regained market share over foreign brands in the industrial robot sector, with exports increasing by 54.9% in the same period [6]. - The growth of the industrial robot industry is driven by multiple factors including supportive policies and increasing demand for automation solutions across various sectors [6]. - Domestic manufacturers have made significant advancements in core component technologies, enhancing supply chain stability and customization capabilities [6]. - The automotive industry remains a traditional market for industrial robots, while sectors like lithium battery production and electronics are also seeing increased automation needs [6]. - The integration of AI into traditional manufacturing is reshaping the industrial robot ecosystem, enhancing operational efficiency and flexibility [6]. - Performance differentiation is observed within the robot sector, with leading companies improving their performance through technological advancements and cost control [6]. - Investment recommendations focus on leading companies in the complete machine segment such as Huichuan Technology and Estun, as well as component manufacturers like Greentech Harmonic Drive [6].

Core Viewpoint - The robotics sector has experienced a significant surge, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and market momentum [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Wuzhou Xinchun, Hanyu Group, and Fangzheng Electric have all hit the daily limit up, showcasing robust performance in the robotics sector [1] - Zhongrun Optical has seen an increase of over 10%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Other companies such as Zhejiang Xiantong, Green Harmonic, Lixing Co., and Hanwei Technology have also shown rapid gains, contributing to the overall bullish trend in the industry [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for Greentown Harmonic Drive Company Overview - **Company**: Greentown Harmonic Drive - **Industry**: Robotics, Automation, Semiconductor, Machine Tools Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Greentown Harmonic Drive reported a revenue increase of 49.92% year-on-year, with net profit reaching 40.25 million yuan, up 81.19% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin improved to over 39%, reflecting effective cost control and increased production efficiency [3] Cost Reduction and Profitability - Cost reductions were achieved through optimized production processes, increased automation, and improved product yield [2][4] - The shift in product structure from traditional harmonic reducers to mechatronic coupling products has enhanced overall gross margins, particularly in high-profit sectors like semiconductors and humanoid robots [2][4] Cash Flow and Payment Policies - Operating cash flow and net profit were synchronized in the first three quarters of 2025, showing significant improvement compared to 2024, driven by changes in product structure and downstream applications [5] - The company did not adjust its payment policies, maintaining stable payment terms for major clients [5] Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - The company’s IPO project capacity is fully operational, with plans to add over 1 million units of transmission device capacity by the end of 2025 [6] - The production capacity for harmonic reducers is expected to approach 1 million units by the end of 2025, laying a foundation for future growth [6] Business Growth in Mechatronics - The mechatronic business saw a 70% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with expectations for continued growth driven by demand in machine tools, semiconductors, and humanoid robots [7] - The humanoid robot joint module sector is particularly strong, with domestic leading companies beginning mass production [7][8] Market Trends and Client Relationships - The humanoid robot market share is approaching double digits, with stable progress in semiconductor wafer handling and medical robotic applications [4][22] - Greentown Harmonic Drive is actively collaborating with North American robot clients and has secured orders, anticipating large-scale demand by the end of 2026 [15][19] Long-term Profitability Outlook - The long-term gross margin for the mechatronic business is expected to remain higher than that of single product reducers, making it an attractive segment [9] - Future gross margin changes will depend on industry and application choices, with potential for high margins in niche markets like medical and semiconductor sectors [10] Technological Developments - The company is exploring new materials and processes for harmonic reducers, although some proposed solutions have not yet been widely adopted due to performance issues [11] - Development of micro harmonic reducers for dexterous hands is underway, with ongoing adjustments based on client feedback [12] Competitive Landscape - Despite general manufacturing sector challenges, Greentown Harmonic Drive's market share has increased, and the competitive environment remains favorable [15][23] - The company is well-positioned to meet the growing demand in the humanoid robot sector, with a focus on maintaining core design and testing internally while potentially outsourcing some manufacturing [8][15] Future Projections - The company anticipates that the humanoid robot segment will account for 15-20% of total production capacity in 2025, with expectations for higher proportions in the following year [24] - Greentown Harmonic Drive is preparing for increased production capacity to meet anticipated demand from core clients [24] Strategic Investments - The investment in Newen Technology is primarily financial, aimed at enhancing capabilities in high-power drives, which are critical for future product development [27][28] - Collaborative product development with Newen Technology is planned to enhance overall solution competitiveness [29] Conclusion - Greentown Harmonic Drive is positioned for significant growth in the robotics and automation sectors, with strong financial performance, strategic expansions, and a focus on high-margin applications. The company is actively adapting to market demands and technological advancements to maintain its competitive edge.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a 47.36% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 407 million yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders also rose by 59.21% year-on-year to 94 million yuan [2] - The gross margin has stabilized and improved, with a gross margin of 36.60% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a net profit margin of 23.35%, indicating strong profitability [3] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and focusing on the humanoid robot sector, with plans to increase production capacity significantly in the coming years [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 407 million yuan, up 47.36% year-on-year, and a net profit of 94 million yuan, up 59.21% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 155 million yuan, a 49.92% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 40 million yuan, an 81.19% increase year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 36.60%, down 2.93 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 1.64 percentage points to 23.35% [3] Production Capacity and Strategic Focus - The company has successfully completed a project to expand its production capacity for precision reducers to 500,000 units annually and plans to further increase capacity in 2025. A new project for intelligent manufacturing of precision transmission devices is also set to start in December 2024, expected to add 1 million harmonic reducers and 200,000 mechatronic products annually [4] - The company is enhancing its product offerings in the humanoid robot sector by focusing on lightweight harmonic reducer technology, achieving over 30% weight reduction while maintaining output, and developing micro harmonic reducers suitable for dexterous hands [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards due to the recovery in demand for industrial robots, with projected net profits of 138 million yuan, 212 million yuan, and 322 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 212, 139, and 91 times for the respective years [4]

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry is rated as "Standard Configuration" [70] Core Insights - Tesla's Optimus Gen3 release has been delayed, with production capacity of one million humanoid robots expected to start by the end of 2026, potentially leading to a technological revolution in the industry [3][66] - The engineering machinery sector has seen a recovery in sales during the first three quarters of 2025, with expectations for continued growth driven by domestic and overseas demand [3][66] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the mechanical equipment industry has increased by 1.22% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.76 percentage points [11] - Year-to-date, the industry has risen by 35.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 15.81 percentage points [11] Valuation Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the overall PE TTM for the mechanical equipment sector is 31.92 times, with specific segments showing varied valuations: General Equipment at 42.95 times, Specialized Equipment at 31.92 times, and Automation Equipment at 51.76 times [2][23] Data Updates - The report highlights significant sales growth in engineering machinery, with major manufacturers reporting strong performance in Q3 2025 [64][66] Industry News - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 35% from 2024 to 2030, with the market size expected to reach $15 billion by 2030 [64] - The report discusses the establishment of a joint fund in Hubei province to promote humanoid robot innovation, indicating strong governmental support for the sector [64] Company Announcements - Companies such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG have reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector [68]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [8][10]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, with a 47.4% year-over-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 410 million RMB. The net profit for the same period increased by 59.2% to 90 million RMB [9][11]. - The growth is attributed to the recovery in the downstream robotics market and the completion of a production expansion project, which has increased the company's capacity [11]. - The company is actively expanding into new fields such as embodied intelligence and machine tools, which are expected to drive future growth [11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the machinery equipment industry, with a current stock price of 159.92 RMB and a market capitalization of 29.318 billion RMB [2]. Recent Ratings - The company has consistently received "Buy" ratings in recent reports, with the latest rating issued on December 4, 2024 [3]. Product Portfolio - The product mix includes 78.3% harmonic reducers and metal components, 16.6% mechatronic products, and 3.2% intelligent automation equipment [4]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 39.6%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit margin of 25.9%, up 4.5 percentage points [11]. - The company expects net profits of 120 million RMB, 150 million RMB, and 203 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting significant growth [11][13]. Market Position - The company is a leader in the harmonic reducer market and is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in industrial robotics production, which increased by 29.8% year-over-year [11].

Group 1 - Green Harmony (688017.SH) reported its Q3 2025 results on October 31, 2025, with 36 institutional investors holding a total of 31.843 million A-shares, representing 17.37% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 16.51% of the shares, with an increase of 2.43 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, 12 funds increased their holdings, with a total increase ratio of 2.41%, including notable funds such as E Fund National Robot Industry ETF and Huaxia CSI Robot ETF [2] - Eight public funds decreased their holdings, with a total decrease ratio of 0.66%, including funds like Wanjiayouxuan and Penghua Carbon Neutral Theme Mixed A [2] - Ten new public funds were disclosed this period, including Penghua National Robot Industry ETF and others, while 232 funds were not disclosed this period, indicating significant changes in the public fund landscape [2]