Summary of China Industrials 2026 Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Core Themes**: AI technology diffusion, industrial upgrades, and globalization are central to the industrial sector's recovery in 2026. The government is focused on enhancing productivity through equipment upgrades, particularly in high-end equipment [1][4]. Key Insights - **Industrial Cycle**: The industrial cycle is characterized by strong global demand for capital goods, driven by AI technology applications and supply chain security concerns. China's trend of localizing high-end equipment remains strong, with specific sectors like data centers, electronics, and robotics expected to show growth, while processing markets may experience muted demand [3][10]. - **AI Applications**: 2026 is anticipated to mark the beginning of significant capital expenditure on physical AI, which will benefit automation and robotics companies. The government is supporting this through initiatives aimed at increasing the deployment of AI-powered robotics [4][11][12]. - **Localization and Supply Chain**: The localization rates for automation and industrial robots are projected to rise, with expectations of reaching 60-70% by 2030. This trend is expected to benefit companies involved in automation and precision components [21][22][23]. Market Dynamics - **Overseas Expansion**: Equipment exports from China have grown significantly, outpacing overall export growth. Companies are motivated to expand into international markets to capture larger total addressable markets (TAM) and improve margins [24][25]. - **Margin Expansion**: The overall net margin for China's industrials is expected to increase from approximately 13.0% in 2025 to around 14.6% in 2027, driven by overseas growth and advancements in AI technology [26][27]. Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report highlights several stocks that are expected to benefit from cyclical strength and structural tailwinds, including: - **Geekplus (2590.HK)**: OW - **Sany Heavy (600031.SS)**: OW - **Leaderdrive (688017.SS)**: OW - **Han's Laser (002008.SZ)**: OW - **Inovance (300124.SZ)**: OW - **Hengli (601100.SS)**: OW - **Wuxi Lead (300450.SZ)**: OW - **Envicool (002837.SZ)**: OW - **Underweight Stocks**: Stocks such as **CSCEC (601668.SS)**, **CRRC-H (1766.HK)**, and **Maxwell (300751.SZ)** are rated as underweight due to various market challenges [5][8][46]. Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Factors**: The geopolitical landscape is influencing supply chain security, which is a critical factor for capital goods demand globally [3]. - **Investment in AI**: The anticipated investment in AI infrastructure is expected to redefine smart manufacturing and create new opportunities within the industrial sector [10][11]. - **Sector Performance**: The report indicates that most industrial stocks are trading at or above their historical five-year average P/E ratios, reflecting a positive outlook for continuous upgrades and AI-related demand [26][38]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected recovery and growth opportunities within the China Industrials sector for 2026, highlighting key themes, market dynamics, and stock recommendations.

20 Jan 2026 10:23:14 ET │ 12 pages Flash | China Humanoid Robot Read-Across from Veichi Electric CITI'S TAKE We talked to mgmt. of Veichi Electric (688698.SS, not rated) today (20 January) to get a sense of key humanoid robots' development status. Veichi is a supplier of inverters, servo motors, and PLCs (Programmable Logic Controllers). Recently, it not only supplies rotary joint modules, coreless motors, frameless motors, as well as dexterous hands to Chinese humanoid robot makers but also penetrates the ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [5][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth potential in the commercial aerospace sector, driven by SpaceX's ambitious goal of producing 10,000 Starships annually and achieving a launch frequency exceeding once per hour within three years [2][19]. - OpenAI is actively seeking domestic hardware suppliers in the U.S. for its expansion into consumer devices, robotics, and cloud data centers, emphasizing the critical role of hardware in software development [3][19]. Summary by Relevant Sections Commercial Aerospace - The report emphasizes the long-term investment opportunities in commercial aerospace, particularly focusing on key suppliers and the Blue Arrow Aerospace supply chain. Recommended companies include: 1. Rocket components: Huazhu High-Tech, Yingliu Co., Longxi Co. 2. Satellite assembly and testing: Guangdian Measurement, Sutest, Shanghai Huguang. 3. Other relevant companies: Zhongtai Co., Ice Wheel Environment [2][9]. AI Infrastructure - The report expresses optimism regarding the AI infrastructure sector, particularly in gas turbines and liquid cooling technologies. Key recommendations include: 1. Gas turbine components: Yingliu Co., Wanze Co. 2. Gas turbine generator sets: Jerry Co. 3. Other components: Haomai Technology, Liande Co. 4. Liquid cooling systems: Ice Wheel Environment, Hanzhong Precision Machinery, Liande Co. [3][9]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, all rated "Outperform": 1. Green's Harmony (688017.SH): Target price of 220.50, market cap of 40.4 billion, EPS of 0.33 for 2024A. 2. Mingzhi Electric (603728.SH): Target price of 73.65, market cap of 30.9 billion, EPS of 0.19 for 2024A. 3. Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ): Target price of 80.85, market cap of 218.9 billion, EPS of 1.60 for 2024A [12][25].

Market Overview - The automation equipment sector experienced a decline of 2.05% on January 20, with Hongxun Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the automation equipment sector included: - Zhili Fang (301312) with a closing price of 55.99, up 3.46% [1] - Shuangyuan Technology (688623) at 112.98, up 2.48% [1] - Tianzhun Technology (688003) at 67.22, up 1.60% [1] - Major decliners included: - Hongxun Technology (603015) at 14.71, down 9.20% [2] - Buke Co. (688160) at 148.99, down 6.87% [2] - Jieput (688025) at 135.89, down 6.77% [2] Capital Flow - The automation equipment sector saw a net outflow of 2.591 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 1.757 billion yuan [2][3] - The top stocks by net inflow from institutional investors included: - Tianzhun Technology (688003) with a net inflow of 35.53 million yuan [3] - Tiaohui Co. (688529) with a net inflow of 35.04 million yuan [3] - Lvdihuanbo (688017) with a net inflow of 34.19 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, with a focus on mining equipment, AI devices, and consumables [1]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle driven by monetary and fiscal policies, with significant capital expenditure anticipated in mining due to rising prices of non-ferrous metals [6][8]. - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, leading to increased demand for high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCBs, which are critical for AI applications [6][20]. - The report highlights key companies in various segments, including industrial control, robotics, machine tools, and testing industries, suggesting a broad range of investment opportunities [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical industry comprises 636 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 70,956.73 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 58,998.75 billion yuan [3]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Several companies are highlighted with strong profit forecasts and investment ratings, including: - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ): EPS forecasted at 2.11 yuan for 2025, with a strong buy rating [2]. - Falan Technology (603966.SH): EPS forecasted at 0.60 yuan for 2025, with a strong buy rating [2]. - Xinjie Electric (603416.SH): EPS forecasted at 1.83 yuan for 2025, with a strong buy rating [2]. - Other notable mentions include companies like Anhui Heli (600761.SH) and Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH), both receiving strong buy ratings [2]. Market Performance - The mechanical sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.4% increase in the index, while the overall market performance varied across different indices [10][13]. - The 3C equipment segment experienced the highest growth at 14.4%, indicating strong demand in this area [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the AI wave, such as: - Dingtai High-Tech and Zhongtung High-Tech in the consumables sector [20][21]. - Dazhu CNC and Xinqi Micro-Assembly in the equipment sector [20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-end equipment and consumables in the PCB market, projecting significant growth in this area [20][21]. Key Data Tracking - The report includes macroeconomic indicators and industry-specific data, such as the manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the industry's health [32][36].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The human-shaped robot's ability to run smoothly represents a significant technological leap from mere functionality to human-like capabilities, indicating a potential shift towards practical applications in complex environments [9][20] - The competition in the humanoid robot industry has evolved into a multi-dimensional strategic game, with different focuses across the supply chain, emphasizing the need for companies to integrate technology, establish standards, and meet real industry demands [22][30] - The future of humanoid robots hinges on overcoming five critical conditions: technological maturity, cost control, clear market positioning, infrastructure development, and societal acceptance [30][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: The Impact of Robot Running Demonstrations - The recent running demonstrations by Tesla's Optimus and Figure AI have generated significant global interest, suggesting a potential breakthrough in the commercialization of humanoid robots [5][6] - These demonstrations challenge the notion that advanced robotics can only exist in controlled environments, indicating a shift towards practical, scalable applications [31] Section 2: Technical Breakdown of Running Capabilities - Achieving running capabilities involves overcoming substantial technical challenges, including dynamic balance, rapid response times, and energy efficiency [10][19] - The transition from walking to running signifies a fundamental change in robotic capabilities, moving from static to dynamic balance, which is essential for operating in unpredictable environments [12][20] Section 3: Business Logic Behind the Demonstrations - The timing of these demonstrations reflects a strategic move by industry leaders to signal their technological advancements and readiness for market integration [32] - Both Tesla and Figure AI are pursuing different paths: Tesla aims for a universal platform while Figure AI focuses on specific industrial applications, highlighting the diverse strategies within the industry [26][30] Section 4: Industry Chain Dynamics - The competition among suppliers, manufacturers, and application developers is intensifying, with each segment vying for control over standards and market share [22][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust ecosystem that supports the development and deployment of humanoid robots in real-world applications [30] Section 5: Future Outlook - The next few years are critical for validating the feasibility of humanoid robots, with key indicators including commercial orders, supply chain formation, and cost reduction trends [31] - The industry is at a pivotal moment, transitioning from experimental demonstrations to practical implementations that can deliver economic value [31]

Group 1 - The automation equipment sector increased by 2.21% on January 16, with Saiteng Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4101.91, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14281.08, down 0.18% [1] - Key stocks in the automation equipment sector showed significant price increases, with Saiteng Co., Ltd. rising by 10.01% to a closing price of 49.13 [1] Group 2 - The sector experienced a net inflow of 2.137 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 1.308 billion yuan [2] - The top gainers included Saiteng Co., Ltd. with a net inflow of 251 million yuan, and Dazhu Laser with a net inflow of 225 million yuan [3] - Conversely, stocks like Machida Co. and Zhongkong Technology faced declines of 3.77% and 3.71%, respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry is rated as "Standard Allocation" for the next six months, indicating expected performance in line with the market index within ±10% [59] Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is projected to see an installation of 16,000 units in 2025, with a high industry concentration where the top five companies hold over 70% market share [2][55] - The excavator sales are expected to grow by 16.97% year-on-year in 2025, supported by the commencement of major domestic projects and favorable overseas demand [2][55] - The mechanical equipment sector has shown a bi-weekly increase of 6.09%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.47 percentage points, ranking 10th among 31 sectors [3][12] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of January 15, 2026, the mechanical equipment sector has increased by 6.09% bi-weekly, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][12] - The general equipment sub-sector had the highest increase of 8.17%, followed by automation equipment at 8.01% and specialized equipment at 5.40% [19][21] Valuation Situation - The current PE ratio for the mechanical equipment sector is 35.17, with general equipment at 50.88 and automation equipment at 55.29 [23][24] - The current valuation is 20.36% higher than the one-year average for the mechanical equipment sector [23] Data Updates - The report highlights the sales performance of various machinery, including excavators and loaders, with significant year-on-year growth rates [52][53] Industry News - The report discusses the advancements in humanoid robots and the establishment of partnerships for core component testing and quality improvement [52][55] - It also notes the expected increase in excavator sales and the overall positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector [2][55] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Huichuan Technology, Green Harmonic, Sany Heavy Industry, and Hengli Hydraulic due to their strong market positions and growth potential [56]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a surge in robot concept stocks, with several companies hitting the daily limit up, driven by positive sentiment surrounding Tesla's V3 version and endorsements from notable investors [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Companies such as Henghui Anfang, Henggong Precision, and Deen Precision have all reached the daily limit up of 20% [1]. - Other notable performers include Jingzhida with a rise of over 17%, and DeMais, Slinzhidrive, and Kexiang shares increasing by over 14% [1]. - The total market capitalization of Henghui Anfang is 8.603 billion, while Henggong Precision stands at 9.863 billion [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Jason Calacanis, a well-known Silicon Valley investor, praised the V3 version of Tesla's robot, suggesting that future recognition will focus on Optimus rather than Tesla's past vehicle production [1]. - The positive feedback from influential investors is likely to bolster market confidence in robot-related stocks [1]. Group 3: Year-to-Date Performance - Henghui Anfang has a year-to-date increase of 21.97%, while Henggong Precision has risen by 9.40% [3]. - Other companies like Baive Storage and Stai Zhichui have shown significant year-to-date gains of 51.11% and 50.60%, respectively [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in robotics concept stocks, with notable gains in several companies [1] - Green Harmony's stock surged over 12%, reaching a new historical high [1] - Other companies such as Henggong Precision, Henghui Security, Ningbo Huaxiang, and Fangzheng Electric experienced stock price limits, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2 - Companies like Siling Zhichui, Deen Precision, and Zhenyu Technology saw their stock prices increase by over 10%, reflecting a broader trend in the robotics sector [1]