Core Viewpoint - The industrial mother machine sector in the A-share market is experiencing significant growth, with several stocks showing strong performance due to the formation of a MACD golden cross signal [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Heng'erda has reached a 20% limit up [1] - Jilun Intelligent, Rifa Precision Machinery, and Guojiji Heavy Industry have all achieved a 10% limit up [1] - Green Harmony has increased by over 7% [1] - Haozhi Electromechanical has risen by over 5% [1] - Hanyu Group, Shandong Weida, and Jinming Precision Machinery have all seen increases of over 4% [1]

Core Insights - The automation equipment sector experienced a decline of 1.46% on December 2, with Gokai Technology leading the drop [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.71, down 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13056.7, down 0.68% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the automation equipment sector included: - Haixi Communications: Closed at 28.26, up 4.43% with a trading volume of 54,100 shares and a turnover of 152 million [1] - Ruisheng Intelligent: Closed at 82.60, up 2.99% with a trading volume of 17,400 shares and a turnover of 140 million [1] - Major decliners included: - Gokai Technology: Closed at 34.46, down 6.05% with a trading volume of 225,300 shares and a turnover of 784 million [2] - Tuosida: Closed at 28.69, down 4.05% with a trading volume of 130,900 shares and a turnover of 377 million [2] Capital Flow - The automation equipment sector saw a net outflow of 601 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 118 million [2][3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Haixi Communications: Net inflow of 22.19 million from institutional investors, with a retail net inflow of 400,500 [3] - Ruisheng Intelligent: Net inflow of 15.12 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 14.41 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The robotics sector is experiencing a decline, with significant drops in key stocks and ETFs, despite the potential for a long-term growth cycle driven by humanoid robots as carriers of AI technology [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Key robotics stocks such as Tuosida fell over 4%, Green Harmony over 3%, and others like Shuanghuan Transmission, Top Group, and Mingzhi Electric dropped over 2% [1]. - Robotics-related ETFs also saw a decline, with an average drop of nearly 2% [1]. Group 2: ETF Details - Specific ETF performance includes: - Robot ETF Fuguo: Current price 0.847, down 1.85% - Robot ETF Penghua: Current price 1.006, down 1.85% - Robot 50 ETF: Current price 1.278, down 1.84% - Robot ETF Yifangda: Current price 1.421, down 1.80% [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that the wave of embodied intelligence positions humanoid robots as the best carriers for AI, potentially leading to a 10-year industrial cycle [2]. - By 2025, small-scale production of robots is expected to commence, with rapid iteration and expansion in component manufacturing, leading to an accelerated industry explosion by 2026 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Greentech Harmonic experienced a decline of 2.00% on December 2, with a current price of 146.90 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 26.931 billion CNY. The company has shown a year-to-date stock price increase of 36.07% [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Greentech Harmonic achieved a revenue of 407 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.36%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 93.667 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59.21% [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Greentech Harmonic reached 31,800, an increase of 52.87% compared to the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 28.94% to 5,767 shares [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Greentech Harmonic has distributed a total of 194 million CNY in dividends, with 85.794 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the third-largest shareholder, holding 8.961 million shares, an increase of 4.9535 million shares from the previous period. New institutional investors include E Fund National Robot Industry ETF and Huaxia CSI Robot ETF [3]

Summary of Leader Drive (688017.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: Leader Drive (LD) - **Industry**: Robotics and Automation - **Specialization**: Production and sale of precision reducers, including harmonic reducers and mechatronic actuators for various sectors such as industrial robots, service robots, CNC machine tools, aerospace, and medical equipment [doc id='19'][doc id='20']. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Forecasts - **Earnings Forecasts**: 2025/26E earnings forecasts raised by 10%/18% respectively, with a target price (TP) increase of approximately 7% to Rmb187.0 [doc id='1'][doc id='3']. - **Net Profit Growth**: Expected net profit for 4Q25E to increase by 11 times YoY to Rmb26 million from a net loss of Rmb3 million in 4Q24 [doc id='1']. - **Revenue Projections**: Anticipated revenue growth of 49% YoY to Rmb166 million in 4Q25E, driven by increased shipments of humanoid and industrial robots [doc id='1']. Product and Market Insights - **Humanoid Robot Growth**: Humanoid robot product shipments expected to grow exponentially in 2026, potentially accounting for ~40% of total revenue by 2026E [doc id='2']. - **Industrial Robot Shipments**: Projected growth of 20%-30% YoY in industrial robot shipments due to continuous market share gains [doc id='1']. - **Production Capacity Expansion**: Harmonic reducer capacity expanded from 30k/month to 40k/month, with plans to reach 80k/month by the end of 2025 [doc id='2']. Gross Profit Margin (GPM) Insights - **GPM Stability**: GPM expected to remain around 40% with potential upside due to improved economies of scale [doc id='1']. - **GPM Projections**: Gross profit margin forecasted to improve from 37.6% in 2025E to 40.7% in 2026E [doc id='9']. Valuation Metrics - **Valuation**: New TP of Rmb187 based on a P/E ratio of 281x for 2025E, reflecting strong earnings recovery and increased exposure to humanoid robots [doc id='3'][doc id='21']. - **Market Capitalization**: Current market cap stands at Rmb26.64 billion (approximately US$3.77 billion) [doc id='5']. Risks and Challenges - **Market Risks**: Potential risks include slower growth in the automation market, increased competition, higher raw material costs, and lower contributions from humanoid robots [doc id='22']. Comparative Analysis - **Peer Comparison**: Preference for Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS) over LD due to lower valuation, which may offer more room for rerating in the humanoid robot sector [doc id='3']. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy**: A Buy rating is maintained for Leader Drive, with expectations of a stronger-than-expected business recovery and rising contributions from mechatronic and humanoid robot products [doc id='20']. - **Quarterly Performance**: 4Q24 net sales were Rmb111 million, with projections for 4Q25E to reach Rmb166 million, indicating significant growth [doc id='9']. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Leader Drive's financial outlook, product growth, market positioning, and associated risks.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry experienced a bi-weekly decline of 3.36%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.61 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 industries [12]. - Year-to-date, the mechanical equipment sector has increased by 28.67%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 13.92 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [12]. - The report highlights the acceleration of human-shaped robot development driven by continuous policy support and technological advancements, which is expected to enhance application scenarios [4][66]. - The engineering machinery sector is projected to see sustained demand due to the commencement of major national projects and the acceleration of funding and replacement policies [4][67]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 27, 2025, the mechanical equipment sector's bi-weekly performance showed a decline of 3.36%, with a month-to-date decline of 4.73% and a year-to-date increase of 28.67% [12][15]. - Among the five sub-sectors, the engineering machinery sector had the smallest decline of 0.31% bi-weekly, while the rail transit equipment II sector saw the largest decline of 6.46% [20][21]. Valuation - The overall PE TTM for the mechanical equipment sector is 30.48 times, with sub-sectors showing varying valuations: general equipment at 42.01 times, specialized equipment at 30.72 times, and rail transit equipment II at 17.16 times [3][24]. Data Updates - The report includes updates on sales figures for various machinery, such as a 10.20% year-on-year increase in truck crane sales for October 2025, and a 15.90% increase in forklift sales [63]. Company Announcements - The report notes several companies' announcements regarding shareholding changes and patent grants, indicating ongoing innovation and market activity within the sector [66]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huichuan Technology, Green Harmonic, Sany Heavy Industry, and Hengli Hydraulic, citing their strong market positions and growth potential driven by infrastructure investments and technological advancements [68].

Group 1 - The mechanical equipment industry has shown a strong performance with a 55.20% increase from January to October 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 25.03 percentage points, ranking fifth among Shenwan industries [14][6][29] - Revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 6.11% and 14.52% year-on-year, respectively, indicating improved profitability and operational quality [17][29][30] - The industry is benefiting from factors such as product exports, cost control, and optimization of product structure, leading to enhanced profitability [17][29] Group 2 - The engineering machinery sector has experienced significant growth in exports, with a focus on increasing electrification rates. Domestic excavator sales showed a slowdown in October 2025, attributed to preemptive inventory replenishment [34][44][54] - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to be supported by the commencement of major national projects and accelerated funding [34][49] - The global market for electric engineering machinery is projected to grow significantly, with China's electrification rate expected to reach 7.90% by 2024 [69][74] Group 3 - The humanoid robot sector is seeing advancements in industrial applications, particularly in dexterous hand technology, which is crucial for the deployment of humanoid robots in various settings [75][78] - The integration of AI models is enhancing the capabilities of robots, making them more versatile for industrial applications [77][78] - Tesla's Optimus Gen3 is set to launch in Q1 2026, with significant demand for components, indicating a robust growth trajectory for humanoid robotics [79][80] Group 4 - The automation equipment sector is experiencing a mixed recovery, with industrial robots facing intensified competition and a shift towards high-end markets [80][81] - The demand for industrial automation is expected to recover in specific sub-sectors, while overall manufacturing PMI remains below the growth line [80][81] - The machine tool sector is witnessing a gradual recovery in revenue growth, supported by improved downstream demand and policy support [80][81] Group 5 - Investment recommendations for 2026 focus on technology development, cyclical recovery, and export chain layout, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [6][29][40]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates a positive outlook for the simulation robotics industry, supported by meetings with five related companies, which expect exponential revenue growth in the coming year due to accelerated production in both China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Company Insights - The five companies discussed in the report include UBTECH, Orbbec, Lingyi iTech, Green Harmony, and Zhejiang Rongtai, all of which anticipate at least a doubling of their simulation robotics-related revenues next year [1] - Citigroup maintains a favorable view on UBTECH as a preferred stock in the simulation robotics sector, while showing an increasingly positive outlook on parts manufacturer Green Harmony [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The report highlights that leading U.S. companies in the new energy vehicle and simulation robotics sectors are accelerating supply chain development and increasing production capacity [1] - Citigroup suggests taking advantage of recent stock price weaknesses to accumulate shares in Hengli Hydraulic, Green Harmony, and Shuanghuan Transmission [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive sector view on humanoid robots, with a top pick being UBTECH and recommendations to accumulate stocks of Hengli Hydraulic, Leader Drive, and Shuanghuan Drive due to recent stock weakness [1]. Core Insights - Humanoid robot revenues are expected to grow exponentially in 2026, with all five companies visited during the Citi Industrial Tour anticipating at least a doubling of revenues compared to 2025 [1]. - The production ramp-up by Chinese and leading US humanoid robot makers is driving this growth, supported by accelerated supply chain build-up and increased capacity [1]. - Orbbec's humanoid robot revenue is projected to increase from Rmb10 million in 2025 to Rmb100-200 million in 2026, with key customers including UBTECH and AgiBot [2]. - UBTECH is enhancing its data collection capabilities through partnerships with training centers, which is expected to boost future shipments [3]. - Lingyi iTech anticipates humanoid robot orders to reach Rmb1 billion in 2025, with a target to grow revenue to Rmb10 billion by 2030 [4]. - Leader Drive expects its humanoid robot product shipments to at least double in 2026, driven by aggressive production guidance from key customers [5]. - Rongtai is expanding its micro ball screw capacity to support a leading US humanoid robot maker's production ramp-up to 3,000 units per week by Q1 2026 [5]. Summary by Company Orbbec - Revenue growth from Rmb1 million in 2024 to Rmb10 million in 2025, with a potential increase to Rmb100-200 million in 2026 [2]. UBTECH - Main products include Walker S1/S2 for industrial applications, with a forecast of humanoid robot shipments reaching at least 500 in 2025 and 2,000 in 2026 [9]. Lingyi iTech - Aims for humanoid robot revenue of Rmb10 billion by 2030, with significant orders expected in 2025 [4]. Leader Drive - Approximately 20% of revenue in 9M25 came from humanoid robot products, with expectations for significant growth in 2026 [5]. Rongtai - Preparing to support a production increase to 3,000 humanoid robots per week by Q1 2026, with plans to expand capacity to 5,000 per week by the end of 2026 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Greentech Harmonic has shown a significant increase in revenue and profit, indicating strong business performance and investor interest in the automation equipment sector [2][3]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, Greentech Harmonic reported a revenue of 407 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.36% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 93.67 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 59.21% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 194 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 85.79 million yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 21, Greentech Harmonic's stock price rose by 2.08% to 144.87 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 294 million yuan [1]. - The stock has increased by 34.19% year-to-date, but has seen a decline of 9.17% over the past 20 trading days [1]. - The company has appeared on the stock market's "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the last occurrence on January 14 [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, the number of shareholders increased by 52.87% to 31,800, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 28.94% to 5,767 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 8.96 million shares, an increase of 4.95 million shares from the previous period [3]. - New institutional investors include E Fund National Robot Industry ETF and Huaxia CSI Robot ETF, which have recently acquired shares in the company [3]. Business Overview - Greentech Harmonic, established on January 13, 2011, specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of precision transmission devices [1]. - The company's main revenue sources include harmonic reducers and metal components (78.33%), mechatronic products (16.56%), and intelligent automation equipment (3.24%) [1]. - The company operates within the mechanical equipment sector, specifically in automation equipment and robotics [1].