2025年公司业绩实现显著增长，核心得益于多方面有利因素的协同发力。工业机器人行业迎来回暖态 势，市场需求持续释放，公司凭借深厚的行业积累与产品竞争力，在该领域保持稳步增长，市场份额持 续提升，为业绩增长奠定了坚实基础。在具身智能机器人赛道，行业发展进入关键转折期，头部客户逐 步从研发阶段迈向小批量生产，公司相关产品凭借可靠品质与适配性获得客户高度认可，业务规模同比 实现大幅增长，成为业绩增长的重要引擎。同时，公司积极推进海外市场拓展战略，通过深化与海外合 作伙伴的沟通交流，海外客群布局初见成效，为整体增长注入新的动力。此外，公司在稳步提升产能以 匹配市场需求的同时，持续优化生产工艺与运营流程，生产效率与资源利用效率显著改善，进一步增强 了盈利转化能力，共同推动公司实现高质量增长。 格隆汇1月29日丨绿的谐波(688017.SH)公布，经财务部门初步测算，公司预计2025年度实现归属于母公 司所有者的净利润1.15亿元到1.3亿元，与上年同期(法定披露数据)相比，将增加5883.19万元到7383.19 万元，同比增长104.74%到131.45%。 归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润9000万元到 ...

这种分化不仅体现在出货量上，更关键的是谁能完成从实际部署到迭代改进的闭环——包括模型优化、任务能力提升和成本控制。尽管单位出货量快速增 长，但机器人操作能力的改进速度仍然缓慢，受限于模型、数据和算力。 摩根士丹利警告，中国人形机器人行业已从PPT演示阶段进入真刀真枪的量产竞争期。 据追风交易台信息，摩根士丹利调研团队于1月26-28日密集走访了多家整机厂商（傅利叶、开普勒、MagicBot）和核心零部件供应商（绿的谐波、恒立液 压、双林股份、振宇协能、福莱特、卧龙电驱、思灵科技），分析师观察到一个关键变化：领先者与落后者之间的差距正在迅速扩大，首轮行业洗牌即将到 来。 大摩分析师认为，具备技术实力和量产能力的核心零部件供应商将在这轮产业化浪潮中占据主导地位。随着2026年行业出货量实现数倍增长，具备先发优势 的供应商将获得显著的市场份额和定价权。 2026年出货量将实现数倍跃升 大摩调研显示，所有整机厂商都对2026年出货量持乐观预期。一家领先的国内整机厂商2025年出货量已超过5000台，2026年预计将实现数倍增长。其他厂商 的具体目标包括：傅利叶目标2000台（2025年为400-500台）；Magic ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley warns that the humanoid robot industry in China has transitioned from the PPT presentation stage to a competitive mass production phase [1] - The gap between industry leaders and laggards is rapidly widening, indicating an impending first round of industry reshuffling [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - All surveyed manufacturers are optimistic about shipment volumes for 2026, with one leading domestic manufacturer expecting over 5,000 units in 2025 and several times that in 2026 [2] - Specific targets include: Fourier aiming for 2,000 units (up from 400-500 in 2025), MagicBot over 1,000 units, and Kepler 300 units (up from 70-80 in 2025) [2] - Component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic and Slin Technology are preparing capacity based on North American manufacturers' production plans, aiming for 1,000 units per week by July 2026, increasing to 2,500 units by year-end [2] Group 2: Differentiation in Capabilities - A decisive difference in task capabilities and execution efficiency has emerged among manufacturers, with the industry expected to move beyond video demonstrations by 2025 [3] - The ability to complete the feedback loop from deployment to iterative improvement is critical, including model optimization and cost control [3] - Lagging startups may struggle to catch up during the industry's acceleration phase, with a first round of reshuffling likely to occur soon [3] Group 3: Component Supplier Dynamics - The market for component suppliers shows a clear advantage for leaders with stronger technical capabilities and mass production abilities [4] - Suppliers are shifting from single component competition to module-level product offerings, which helps clients reduce integration complexity and improve quality control [4] - Overseas expansion is becoming a key focus, with leading domestic manufacturers only contributing a single-digit percentage to overseas sales last year [4] Group 4: Application Scenarios - Manufacturers are exploring repeatable and scalable application cases across various sectors, including industrial, retail, medical, and logistics [5] - A gradual development trajectory is anticipated, driven by human-machine collaboration rather than rapid universal breakthroughs [5] - Leading manufacturers expect one-third of 2026 shipments to come from entertainment/commercial services, another third from industrial/data collection, and the remainder from R&D [5]

Summary of China Industrial Robot & Automation Landscape (4Q25) Industry Overview - The total industrial automation (IA) market experienced a decline of -3% year-over-year (yoy) in 4Q25, with project/OEM markets at -6% and +1% yoy respectively. The full year 2025 showed a modest decline of -1% yoy, contrasting with Goldman Sachs' estimate of 0% growth [25][27]. - Total industrial robot (IR) sales reached 92,000 units in 4Q25, reflecting an increase of +18% yoy and +14% quarter-over-quarter (qoq). The full year 2025 sales growth was +14% yoy, totaling 336,000 units [25][30]. Market Share Insights - Domestic players maintained a majority market share of 54% in the IR market for 4Q25, a slight increase of +1 percentage point (pp) yoy but a decrease of -1 pp qoq. This share remained consistent for the full year 2025 [25][40]. - FANUC and Kuka (Midea) ranked as the top two players in the IR market, with ESTUN dropping to No. 3 with a 10% market share, and Inovance at No. 4 with a 9% share [25][40]. Segment Performance - **Small 6-axis Robots**: Domestic market share fell to 55% (-2 pp qoq/-1 pp yoy). FANUC led with a 13% share, while ESTUN and Inovance held 11% and 5% respectively [25][40]. - **Large 6-axis Robots**: Domestic share decreased to 30% (-3 pp qoq/-3 pp yoy). ESTUN maintained a 15% share, while Inovance improved to 3% [25][40]. - **SCARA Robots**: Domestic players held 58% of the market (-1 pp qoq/+3 pp yoy), with Inovance leading at 28% [25][40]. Component Market Insights - Inovance led the IA components market with a 27% share in servo motors, a decline of -4 pp qoq and yoy. It also held a 19% share in low-voltage inverters, down -3 pp qoq but up +2 pp yoy [26][40]. - The company ranked No. 4 in small PLCs with a 7% share, remaining flat qoq and yoy, and dropped to No. 6 in mid-to-large PLCs [26]. End-Market Growth - The 4Q25 showed significant growth in end-markets such as lithium batteries (+29% yoy), auto parts (+26% yoy), and semiconductor (+21% yoy). However, the solar sector lagged with a decline of -18% yoy [25][34]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape remains intense, with domestic players facing pressure from both local and international competitors. The market dynamics are shifting rapidly, particularly in the SCARA and small 6-axis segments [25][40]. Key Takeaways - The industrial automation market is experiencing a downturn, but specific segments like industrial robots are showing resilience and growth. - Domestic players are maintaining a majority market share, but competition is intensifying, particularly from established international brands. - Growth in key end-markets indicates potential opportunities for recovery and expansion in the industrial automation sector. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the 4Q25 report on the China Industrial Robot and Automation landscape, highlighting market trends, competitive dynamics, and growth opportunities.

投资逻辑 公司基本盘复苏，国产替代打开主业增长空间。谐波减速器是技术 密集型行业，材料、加工工艺、加工设备等方面均存在较高技术壁 垒，以公司为首的国产谐波减速器厂商经过多年发展，打破了国际 品牌在国内机器人谐波减速器领域的垄断、并持续深化国产替代。 公司技术+成本优势领先，中商情报局披露，2024 年公司市占率 达到全球 12%，位居全球第二，国产第一。受公共安全事件结束和新 能源汽车、3C 电子等下游需求拉动影响，2024-2025 年行业持续回 暖，国家统计局披露，2024/2025 年中国工业机器人产量分别同比提 升 14.2%/28.0%，2025 年产量达到 77 万台，创历史新高。 人形机器人风口将至，公司是人形领域谐波减速器的龙头。人形机 器人市场随着 AI 技术的进步和以特斯拉为首的科技巨头加码，有望 迎来快速爆发，人形机器人自由度有持续增长趋势，将带动谐波减 速器行业数倍增长的需求。以特斯拉 Optimus 为例，单台人形机器 人谐波减速器需求量为 14 台，后续有望提升到 20 个以上。国产厂商 具备较强的创新及降本能力，相对优势显著，有望充分受益人形机 器人市场爆发带来的产业机遇。公司在 ...

Group 1 - The automation equipment sector increased by 1.37% on January 27, with Kaidi Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4139.9, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14329.91, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the automation equipment sector showed significant price increases, with Kaidi Co. rising by 10.00% to a closing price of 131.42 [1] Group 2 - The sector experienced a net outflow of 9.53 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 9.97 billion yuan [2] - Major stocks like Dongjie Intelligent and Robotech also saw notable price increases, with Dongjie Intelligent up 9.90% and Robotech up 4.21% [1][2] - The trading volume for Kaidi Co. reached 1.22 million shares, contributing to a total transaction value of 1.54 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The mechanical sector has shown strong performance, with a 9.68% increase in January, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.02 percentage points, ranking 8th among 30 major industries [3][10]. - Key sub-sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, 3C equipment, laser processing equipment, oil and gas equipment, and semiconductor equipment have experienced significant growth, with increases of 44.52%, 36.32%, 21.48%, 20.92%, and 20.17% respectively [3][10]. - The report suggests focusing on traditional engineering machinery with stable earnings and high dividend yields, as well as leading companies in shipbuilding and mining metallurgy equipment [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Sector Performance - The mechanical sector's performance in January 2026 was robust, with a 9.68% increase, significantly outpacing the CSI 300 index [3][10]. - The sector's valuation is currently at a relatively high level, with the industry P/E ratio at 43.4 times, placing it in the 78.4th percentile of the past decade [15][19]. 2. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a recovery in 2026, driven by equipment replacement cycles and increasing domestic demand [20][41]. - Sales of excavators and loaders showed strong growth in December 2025, with excavator sales up 19.2% and loader sales up 30% year-on-year [20][28]. 3. Robotics - The industrial robotics sector continues to recover, with a 14.7% year-on-year increase in December 2025 production [42]. - The humanoid robot industry is rapidly developing, with over 140 domestic companies and significant production expected in 2025 [42][45]. 4. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is stabilizing, with new ship price indices showing an upward trend and ongoing recovery in profitability for shipbuilding companies [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry, relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [1]. Core Insights - The mechanical sector has shown a strong performance, with a 9.68% increase in January, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 8.02 percentage points [3][10]. - Key sub-sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, 3C equipment, laser processing equipment, oil and gas equipment, and semiconductor equipment have seen significant gains, with increases of 44.52%, 36.32%, 21.48%, 20.92%, and 20.17% respectively [3][10]. - The report suggests focusing on traditional engineering machinery with stable earnings and high dividend yields, as well as on humanoid robots and AIDC supporting equipment [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Sector Performance - The mechanical sector's performance in January 2026 was strong, with a 9.68% increase, ranking 8th among 30 major industries [3][10]. - The report highlights the recent upward trend in sub-sectors, particularly in photovoltaic and semiconductor equipment, which had previously been lagging [4][10]. 2. Engineering Machinery - The report indicates a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector in 2026, driven by a recovery in demand and an ongoing equipment update cycle [20][41]. - Key statistics include a 19.2% year-on-year increase in excavator sales in December 2025, with total sales for the year reaching 235,257 units, a 17% increase [20][27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the engineering machinery sector, such as SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG [41]. 3. Robotics - The industrial robotics sector continues to recover, with a 14.7% year-on-year increase in production in December 2025, totaling 90,116 units [42][49]. - The humanoid robot industry is rapidly developing, with over 140 companies and more than 330 products launched in 2025, marking it as a year of mass production [42][44]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in leading companies and core component suppliers within the robotics sector [49]. 4. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector shows signs of recovery, with new ship price indices stabilizing and ongoing profitability improvements for shipbuilding companies [50]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's shipbuilding output increased by 6.0%, maintaining a leading position globally [50].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **humanoid robot industry**, particularly developments related to **Veichi Electric** and its collaborations with other companies in the sector [1][3]. Company Insights Veichi Electric (688698.SS) - Veichi Electric is a supplier of inverters, servo motors, and PLCs, and has recently expanded its offerings to include rotary joint modules, coreless motors, frameless motors, and dexterous hands for humanoid robots [1]. - The management expressed greater confidence in the production ramp of a leading **US humanoid robot maker** compared to its Chinese clients, citing rigorous product development progress [1]. - The US client's capacity requirement is projected to increase tenfold in 2027, from **1,000 units per week in 2026** to **10,000 units per week** [1]. Collaboration with Rongtai Electric (603119.SS) - Veichi is collaborating with Rongtai Electric to provide dexterous hand solutions for the US humanoid robot maker, establishing a joint venture in Thailand to meet the requirement of producing all components outside of China [3]. - The latest humanoid robot version requires **44 micro motors** for the hands, with a configuration of **22 Degrees of Freedom (DoF)** per hand [3]. Market Projections - The management indicated that the US client has requested Veichi to prepare its capacity by **1H26**, aligning with industry expectations [3]. - The initial capacity requirement is to support **1,000 units** of humanoid robot production per week, with potential growth to **10,000 units per week** by 2027 [3]. Investment Recommendations - Preference is given to component makers like **Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SS)** and **Leader Drive (688017.SS)**, with Hengli Hydraulic being highlighted for its strong market position [1]. Risks - Key risks identified for the humanoid robot industry include: - Weaker demand for excavator and non-excavator components [7]. - Profitability challenges in production plants due to economies of scale [7]. - Lower-than-expected gross profit margins due to product mix changes [7]. - For Leader Drive, risks include slower growth in the automation market, increased competition, higher raw material costs, and lower contributions from humanoid robots [9]. Valuation Insights - Target price for **Hengli Hydraulic** is set at **Rmb135.0**, based on a **52x 2026E P/E** [6]. - Target price for **Leader Drive** is set at **Rmb233**, reflecting a **233x 2026E P/E** due to stronger-than-expected earnings recovery [8]. Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry is poised for significant growth, particularly in the US market, with key players like Veichi Electric and its partners strategically positioned to capitalize on this trend. However, potential risks must be monitored closely to ensure investment stability and growth.

Group 1 - The humanoid robot concept has shown initial strength in the market, with companies like Baida Precision and Tianqi Co., Ltd. both hitting the daily limit up [1] - Zhongkong Technology has increased by over 10%, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1] - Other companies such as Zhaofeng Co., Lushan New Materials, Hanwei Technology, Green Harmonics, and Fuda Co., Ltd. have also seen significant gains, contributing to the overall positive trend in the humanoid robot industry [1]