东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 2025 年 9 月 30 日星期二 本期编辑 | 分析师：刘嘉玮 | | | --- | --- | | 010-66554043 | liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480519050001 | 东兴证券研究所金股推荐 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | --- | --- | | 002074.SZ | 国轩高科 | | 002850.SZ | 科达利 | | 002991.SZ | 甘源食品 | | 300619.SZ | 金银河 | | 300666.SZ | 江丰电子 | | 600012.SH | 皖通高速 | | 600176.SH | 中国巨石 | | 605123.SH | 派克新材 | | 688103.SH | 国力电子 | | 688111.SH | 金山办公 | | 688627.SH | 精智达 | 数据来源：《十月金股汇》 2025 年 09 月 29 日，东兴证券研究所 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 1. 国家发展改革委 9 月 2 ...

证券代码：688627 证券简称：精智达 公告编号：2025-078 根据参与对象实际认购和最终缴款的审验结果，本次员工持股计划预留份额实际参与 认购的员工总数为 12 人，缴纳认购资金总额为 5,794,740.00 元，对应认购公司回购专用 证券账户库存股 147,000 股。 2025 年 9 月 30 日，公司收到中国证券登记结算有限责任公司下发的《证券过户登记 确认书》，公司回购专用证券账户中所持有的 147,000 股公司股票已于 2025 年 9 月 29 日 非交易过户至"深圳精智达技术股份有限公司—2025 年员工持股计划"专用证券账户， 过户价格为 39.42 元/股。截至本公告披露日，本次员工持股计划证券账户持有公司股份数 量为 1,425,000 股，占公司当前总股本的比例约为 1.52%。 根据公司《员工持股计划》，本持股计划预留授予的股票分 3 期解锁，解锁时点分别 为自公司公告预留授予最后一笔标的股票过户至本持股计划名下之日起满 12 个月、24 个 月、36 个月，每期解锁的标的股票比例分别为 40%、30%、30%。锁定期届满后，本持股 计划所持股票权益将依据对应考核年度公司 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 09 月 30 日 行业及产业 持续看好消费电子升级推动上游设备需 求释放 机械设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《可控核聚变产业数据跟踪（一）：优先布局 磁体系统供应商，把握 CFEDR 中长期机遇》 2025-09-28 《智能制造行业周报：消费电子 AI 化，看好检 测设备景气上行》2025-09-22 《智能制造行业周报：人形机器人加速渗透工 业场景》2025-09-16 《智能制造行业周报：半导体设备国产替代进 程提速》2025-09-08 《智能制造行业周报：持续看好国产半导体设 备公司成长性》2025-09-01 王凯 S0820524120002 021-32229888-25522 wangkai526@ajzq.com ——智能制造行业周报（2025/09/22-2025/09/26） 强于大市 投资要点： 本周（2025/09/22-2025/09/26）沪深 300 指数+1.07%，其中机械设备板块-0.81%， 申万一级行业排名 16/31 位。机械设备子板块中，纺织 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that in the recent 10 trading days (from September 15 to September 26), a total of 421 companies were investigated by institutions, with the majority being from securities companies, followed by fund companies and overseas institutions [1] - Among the companies that received overseas institutional research, ShenNan Circuit was the most focused on, being visited by 29 overseas institutions [1] - The average stock price of companies that received overseas institutional research increased by 3.11% over the past 10 trading days, with notable gainers including DeMingLi, JingZhiDa, and WoDe [1] Group 2 - More than half of the stocks that were investigated by overseas institutions saw an increase in financing, with 10 stocks receiving net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - ZhongChuangZhiLing received the highest net purchase amount of 342 million yuan, followed by KeDaXunFei and JuGuangKeJi [1][2] - The table provided lists specific companies, their overseas institutional research counts, stock price changes, and net financing amounts, indicating significant interest and investment activity in these stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for storage chip stocks has strengthened significantly due to supply tightness and surging demand from cloud enterprises, leading to notable price increases and stock performance in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Yachuang Electronics saw a nearly 11% increase in stock price, while Demingli rose over 8% [1]. - Other companies such as Jingzhida, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Lianyun Technology experienced gains exceeding 6% [1]. - The overall trend indicates a robust performance in the storage chip sector, with several companies achieving substantial year-to-date growth percentages [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Supply Dynamics - Major storage module manufacturer Adata announced a halt on DDR4 pricing starting from the 29th, prioritizing DDR5 and NAND flash supply to key customers [1]. - Samsung Electronics raised its memory product prices by 30%, while NAND flash prices increased by 5% to 10% [1]. - Micron Technology informed customers of a price hike ranging from 20% to 30% [1].

Group 1 - As of September 28, 154 public fund institutions participated in A-share market research activities, covering 28 industries and involving 605 listed companies with a total of 4,275 research instances [1] - From September 1 to 28, 70 listed companies saw stock price increases exceeding 20%, with 19 companies experiencing gains over 40%. The mechanical equipment sector stood out, with World achieving a remarkable increase of 113.77%, attracting attention from 30 public fund institutions [3] - During the same period, 44 listed companies were researched by public fund institutions at least 20 times, with Crystal Machine Electric leading with 81 instances of research [3] Group 2 - The research activities of public fund institutions were primarily concentrated in 18 industries, with the mechanical equipment sector being the most focused, involving 90 listed companies. Key companies included Huichuan Technology, Zoomlion, and Jepter [4] - The electronics sector ranked second, with 83 listed companies and a total of 702 research instances, highlighting companies like Shenzhen South Circuit, Jingchen Co., and Juguang Technology as focal points [4] - Other industries with high research activity included electric power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals [4]

Group 1 - The storage chip sector experienced a significant early morning rally on September 29, with notable gains in several companies [1] - Shannon Microelectronics saw an increase of over 6%, while Zhaoyi Innovation rose by more than 5% [1] - Other companies such as Yachuang Electronics, Dongxin Co., Liyuan Information, and Jingzhida also showed strong performance [1]

近5日机构合计调研196家公司，精智达、信立泰、恩华药业等被多家机构扎堆调研。 市场表现上，机构扎堆调研股中，近5日上涨的有12只，涨幅居前的有神工股份、精智达、信立泰等， 涨幅为31.80%、17.68%、15.81%；下跌的有17只，跌幅居前的有汉钟精机、科兴制药、高伟达等，跌 幅为13.31%、9.84%、9.25%。（数据宝） 近5日机构调研股一览 证券时报·数据宝统计，近5个交易日（9月22日至9月26日）约196家公司被机构调研，调研机构类型显 示，证券公司共对171家公司进行调研，即87.24%的上市公司调研活动有证券公司参与；基金公司调研 118家，位列其后；阳光私募机构调研57家，排名第三。 机构调研榜单中，共有29家公司获20家以上机构扎堆调研。精智达最受关注，参与调研的机构达到138 家；信立泰被78家机构调研，榜单中排名第二；恩华药业、德赛西威等分别被77家、67家机构调研。 机构调研次数来看，冰轮环境机构调研最为密集，共获机构4次调研。沪电股份、福莱新材等机构调研 也较为密集，分别被机构调研3次、2次。 数据宝统计，20家以上机构扎堆调研股中，近5日资金净流入的有8只，当升科技近5日 ...

Group 1 - A total of 324 listed companies were investigated by institutions from September 22 to September 26 [1] - Jingzhida received the most attention with 138 participating institutions [1] - Enhua Pharmaceutical, Xinlitai, and Desai Xiwai were each investigated by 77, 77, and 67 institutions respectively [1] Group 2 - Ice Wheel Environment was investigated 4 times, while Hu Dian Co. was investigated 3 times [1] - Institutions continue to focus on sectors such as industrial machinery, electronic components, and electrical parts and equipment [1]

- **Quantitative Timing Model: Volume Timing Signal** - **Model Name**: Volume Timing Signal - **Construction Idea**: The model uses volume indicators to assess market sentiment and provide timing signals for broad-based indices[23] - **Construction Process**: The model evaluates the trading volume of major indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, etc.) and assigns a cautious view when volume contracts significantly[23][24] - **Evaluation**: The model provides a cautious perspective on market timing, especially during periods of volume contraction[23] - **Quantitative Sentiment Indicator: HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio** - **Indicator Name**: HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio - **Construction Idea**: The indicator measures the proportion of stocks within the CSI 300 index that have positive returns over a given period to gauge market sentiment[24] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ HS300\ Upward\ Stock\ Count\ Ratio = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ - The indicator is smoothed using two different window periods (N1=50, N2=35) to capture short-term and long-term trends[24][28] - **Evaluation**: The indicator effectively captures upward opportunities but struggles to predict downward risks. It is prone to missing gains during sustained market exuberance[25] - **Quantitative Sentiment Indicator: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** - **Indicator Name**: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Construction Idea**: The indicator uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the sentiment and trend of the CSI 300 index[31] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) for the CSI 300 index closing price[31] - Assign values based on the number of moving averages above or below the current price: - If the current price exceeds five moving averages, signal a bullish sentiment[32] - Smooth the sentiment indicator using two moving average windows (N1>N2) to generate buy/sell signals[31][32] - **Evaluation**: The indicator provides clear sentiment signals and aligns well with CSI 300 index trends[34] - **Market Alpha Environment Indicator: Cross-Sectional Volatility** - **Indicator Name**: Cross-Sectional Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to evaluate the alpha generation environment[36] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the standard deviation of returns for index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) over different time periods (quarterly, semi-annual, annual)[38] - Compare the volatility levels to historical percentiles to assess the alpha environment[38] - **Evaluation**: The indicator shows improved short-term alpha opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 500, while CSI 1000 remains average[36] - **Market Alpha Environment Indicator: Time-Series Volatility** - **Indicator Name**: Time-Series Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index constituent returns over time to assess alpha generation potential[38] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the weighted time-series volatility for index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) over different time periods (quarterly, semi-annual, annual)[41] - Compare the volatility levels to historical percentiles to evaluate the alpha environment[41] - **Evaluation**: CSI 500 shows favorable alpha conditions, while CSI 300 and CSI 1000 remain average or below average[38] Backtesting Results for Models and Indicators - **Volume Timing Signal**: - Signal: Cautious for all major indices (Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, etc.)[24] - **HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio**: - Recent Value: Approximately 60%[25] - **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator**: - Current Sentiment: CSI 300 index is in a bullish sentiment zone[34] - **Cross-Sectional Volatility**: - CSI 300: Quarterly average volatility = 2.04%, percentile = 73.50% - CSI 500: Quarterly average volatility = 2.19%, percentile = 67.46% - CSI 1000: Quarterly average volatility = 2.40%, percentile = 66.14%[38] - **Time-Series Volatility**: - CSI 300: Quarterly average volatility = 0.63%, percentile = 61.70% - CSI 500: Quarterly average volatility = 0.45%, percentile = 74.60% - CSI 1000: Quarterly average volatility = 0.24%, percentile = 59.76%[41]