中芯国际（00981.HK） 优于大市 二季度收入超指引上限，产能利用率达 92.5% 证券研究报告 | 2025年08月11日 2Q25 营收超指引上限，预计 3Q25 营收环比增长。公司 2Q25 实现销售收入 22.09 亿美元（YoY +16.2%，QoQ -1.7%），高于指引(QoQ -4%至-6%)上限， 晶圆收入占总收入的 94.6%；毛利率为 20.4%(YoY +6.4pct，QoQ -2.1pct)， 超指引(18%-20%)上限；归母净利润为1.32亿美元(YoY -19.5%，QoQ -29.5%)； 折旧摊销金额为 8.79 亿美元(YoY +10.2%，QoQ +1.5%)。公司预计 3Q25 营 收环比增长 5%-7%，毛利率为 18%-20%。原先公司担心的关税政策是否硬着 陆、市场刺激和急建库存是否透支了未来的需求，以及大宗商品需求是否在 新关税引起的价格上涨后衰退，这些目前并没有发生。 二季度产能利用率环比提高 2.9pct，创 3Q22 以来新高。公司 2Q25 付运折合 8 英寸晶圆 239 万片(YoY +13.2%，QoQ +4.3%)，产能利用率上升至 92.5 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 11 日 中芯国际（688981.SH） 渠道备货补库持续，指引 Q3 营收中值环比+6%，订单至 10 月底仍供不应求 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 45,250 | 57,796 | 65,991 | 76,048 | 86,672 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -8.6 | 27.7 | 14.2 | 15.2 | 14.0 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,823 | 3,699 | 5,235 | 6,026 | 7,033 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -60.3 | -23.3 | 41.5 | 15.1 | 16.7 | | ROE（%） | 2.9 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.60 | 0.46 | 0.66 | 0.75 | 0.88 | | P/E（倍） | 150.0 | 195.6 | 1 ...

中国晶圆代工产能利用率高于海外，受益于国产替代和关税影响下设计 公司回迁。全球市场复苏碎片化，各国策略各异，如 Global Foundry 受益于中国需求，Vanga 亦从中国大陆获益。 中芯国际业绩发布后股价波动，市场对其存在误读，公司业务发展良好， 财务表现受毛利率和收入增速放缓影响。华虹半导体二季度收入和毛利 超预期，三季度收入预计环比增长 11%，显著高于同行业水平，已走出 业绩谷底。 今年以来，全球半导体行业涨幅显著，高于费城半导体指数和纳斯达克 指数，接近历史新高。海力士、美光等存储企业以及英伟达、博通等 AI 芯片企业表现尤为强劲，多家公司市值超万亿美元。 WSTS 预测显示，AI 相关 IC 芯片增速良好，非集成电路如功率半导体 仍倒退。2026 年逻辑芯片和存储芯片预计将继续快速增长，逻辑芯片 主要受 AI 驱动，存储芯片与 HBM 相关。MCU 和模拟芯片市场规模大， 但近期表现不佳。 Q&A 中芯、华虹业绩解读 20250810 摘要 全球半导体行业目前处于什么阶段？特别是代工行业的现状如何？ 今年以来，全球半导体行业涨幅显著，高于费城半导体指数和纳斯达克指数， 目前接近历史新高。海力 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 08 月 11 日 国内设备/算力/代工等板块业绩增长向好，关注存储/模拟等复苏态势 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 507 | 9.9 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10138.5 | 10.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 8673.4 | 10.0 | 行业指数 半导体行业深度跟踪 TMT 及中小盘/电子 海外 CSP 云厂商纷纷上修资本支出，台积电上修 2025 年收入增速指引，整体 算力景气度有望延续，国内海光等亦持续释放业绩；海外半导体设备公司 25Q2 表现符合预期，国内设备公司签单和业绩表现向好；海外存储原厂受益于 HBM 等需求，国内存储模组和利基存储芯片公司将继续受益于涨价和库存改善等， 整体收入和盈利能力预计均保持边际复苏态势；海外 TI 表示大部分终端市场复 苏，国内模拟公司 25Q2 营收多数同环比改善。建议关注自主可控加速叠加业 绩向好的设备/算力/代工/等板块、景气周期边际复苏的存储/模拟等板块，同时 建议关注各科创指数和半导体指数核心成分股。 2、库存端：手机链 DOI 环比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in consumer electronics and AI applications, while inventory levels are improving and capital expenditures are being adjusted upwards by key players like TSMC and major overseas semiconductor manufacturers [1][2][4]. Demand Side - The consumer electronics sector is witnessing a recovery, with AI and automotive applications driving innovation. Global smartphone shipments in Q2 saw a year-on-year growth slowdown to 1%, while domestic shipments declined by 4%. PC shipments increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q2, but growth is expected to weaken in H2 2025. Wearable devices, particularly AI glasses, are experiencing significant growth, with a 216% year-on-year increase in Q1 shipments [2][3]. - The automotive market in H1 2025 saw a 13.8% year-on-year increase in sales, with new models like Xiaomi's YU7 achieving substantial pre-order numbers [2]. Inventory Side - The Days of Inventory (DOI) for the smartphone supply chain has slightly increased, with terminal customer inventories remaining low. Major chip manufacturers like Intel reported a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a potential for increased shipments as demand rises [3]. Supply Side - TSMC is ramping up its advanced process production lines in the U.S., driven by strong demand from AI data centers. The capacity utilization rates for various foundries, including SMIC and UMC, have shown improvements, with SMIC reaching 92.5% in Q2 2025 [4][12]. - Major memory manufacturers are focusing capital expenditures on high-end memory products like HBM, with companies like Micron and SK Hynix increasing their capital spending forecasts for 2025 [4]. Price Side - Memory prices are showing signs of steady recovery, particularly for DDR4 and NAND Flash products. The analog chip sector is also expected to see potential price increases, which could positively impact the industry [6]. Sales Side - Global semiconductor sales reached $59.9 billion in June 2025, marking a 19.6% year-on-year increase. The Asia-Pacific region, excluding China and Japan, saw a 34.2% year-on-year sales growth, while sales in Japan declined by 2.9% [6]. Industry Chain Tracking - The semiconductor industry is experiencing marginal improvements in various segments, with a focus on companies benefiting from domestic control and recovery in demand. The design and IDM sectors are seeing growth driven by consumer demand and AI applications [6][17]. - The MCU market is recovering, particularly in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, with significant sales increases noted in Q2 2025 [7]. - The storage sector is seeing improved profitability among overseas manufacturers, with domestic companies also expected to recover in H2 2025 [8]. - The analog chip market is experiencing good demand trends, with many domestic companies reporting improved revenue in Q2 2025 [9]. Advanced Manufacturing and Testing - The demand for advanced processes remains strong, with TSMC maintaining a robust growth forecast for AI-related chips. The utilization rates for mature processes are also recovering, although customer inventory demand for Q4 2025 remains uncertain [12][13]. - Major international packaging and testing companies are forecasting significant revenue growth for Q3 2025, with domestic companies increasing investments in advanced packaging capabilities [13]. Equipment, Materials, and Components - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are showing positive trends in orders and revenue growth, while international firms express caution regarding future guidance due to geopolitical uncertainties [14]. - The push for domestic supply chain independence is accelerating, with ongoing efforts to reduce reliance on foreign components [14]. EDA/IP Sector - Chip design companies like Chipone are reporting record-high order backlogs, indicating strong demand in the EDA sector [15].

车载半导体在产品验证方面需要较长时间，因此与其他领域相比升级速度缓慢，但中芯国际 正在努力达成提高行业内市场份额的目标。 4~6月设备开工率为93%，相比上年同期的85%有所改善。 随着国产半导体需求的增加，中芯国际的营收有所增加，但成本也在增加，利润时隔两个季 度下降…… 中国最大的半导体代工企业中芯国际集成电路制造（SMIC）日前公布的2025年4～6月财报 显示，净利润同比减少19%，降至1.3248亿美元。随着国产半导体需求的增加，中芯国际的 营业收入有所增加，但成本也在增加，利润时隔两个季度出现下降。 4~6月营业收入增长16%，达到22.0906亿美元。按地区观察营业收入，中国的比例为 84%，相比上年同期的80%有所上升。美国为13%，较上年的16%有所下降。 有分析认为，受中美对立的影响，中国政府指导汽车和智能手机制造商优先购买国产半导 体，中芯国际获得的订单正在增加。 中芯国际的联合首席执行官（CEO）赵海军在8月8日的财报说明会上表示，汽车和工业用半 导体的订单量正在增加。中国汽车厂商等客户企业的市场份额扩大成为东风。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）若杉朋子 上海 视频号推荐内容： 版 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|信息技术|半导体与半导体生产设备 证券研究报告 半导体与半导体生产设 备行业周报、月报 2025 年 08 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 中芯国际和华虹半导体 25Q2 业绩高于指引， iPhone 17 镜头有望迎来升级 ——行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 本周（2025.8.4-2025.8.10）市场回顾 1）海外 AI 芯片指数本周上涨 4.66%，英伟达和博通股价上涨超 5%， Marvell 股价上涨 3.88%，台积电和 MPS 涨幅在 2%以上，AMD 小幅 涨幅。2）国内 AI 芯片指数本周下跌 0.6%。澜起科技股价上涨 11.19%， 长电科技和寒武纪小幅上涨，其余公司股价出现不同幅度的下跌。3） 英伟达映射指数本周上涨 6.6%，经历上周较大幅度上涨后，本周涨幅 有所下滑，且成分股表现分化较大。工业富联、江海股份和英维克涨 幅超过 10%，景旺电子和沪电股份分别下跌 4.07%和 5.14%。4）服 务器 ODM 指数本周上涨 0.7%，但成分股表现分化较大。超微电脑下 跌 21.26%，鸿海精密涨幅近 8%，Qua ...

该行又指，管理层预期未来数季订单保持稳定，推动交付增长，均价亦处上升趋势，基于12英寸晶圆折扣减少及12英寸晶圆销售贡献高于8英寸晶 圆。纵使第四季终端需求能见度仍低，管理层预期产能使用率将继续稳固，基于客户需求强劲。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，下调对中芯国际(00981)今年至2027年每股盈利预测1%，反映毛利率及经营溢利率假设下调，基于产能增加 导致的折旧与摊销增加持续。 对中芯H股投资评级为"买入"，目标价63.7港元，为2028年目标市盈率36倍。 该行认为中芯国际第二季收入增长放缓属暂时性，并同意公司预计现季度收入按季升5%至7%指引。公司现季度达18%至20%毛利率指引，低于该 行及市场预测分别20.6%及21.1%，基于折旧及摊销增加。但该行见到正面因素，包括产能使用率稳固、客户订单强劲及持续产能扩张支持公司捕 捉需求并提供更完成产品。 该行重申对中芯正面观点，认为将受惠本土化生产的需求增加及组合中12吋晶圆占比增加。 （原标题：高盛：略降对中芯国际(00981)今年至2027年每股盈测 目标价63.7港元） ...

该行又指，管理层预期未来数季订单保持稳定，推动交付增长，均价亦处上升趋势，基于12英寸晶圆折 扣减少及12英寸晶圆销售贡献高于8英寸晶圆。纵使第四季终端需求能见度仍低，管理层预期产能使用 率将继续稳固，基于客户需求强劲。 该行认为中芯国际第二季收入增长放缓属暂时性，并同意公司预计现季度收入按季升5%至7%指引。公 司现季度达18%至20%毛利率指引，低于该行及市场预测分别20.6%及21.1%，基于折旧及摊销增加。但 该行见到正面因素，包括产能使用率稳固、客户订单强劲及持续产能扩张支持公司捕捉需求并提供更完 成产品。 该行重申对中芯正面观点，认为将受惠本土化生产的需求增加及组合中12吋晶圆占比增加。 高盛发布研报称，下调对中芯国际(00981)今年至2027年每股盈利预测1%，反映毛利率及经营溢利率假 设下调，基于产能增加导致的折旧与摊销增加持续。 对中芯H股投资评级为"买入"，目标价63.7港元， 为2028年目标市盈率36倍。 ...

Key Events - Trump announced that the U.S. will impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [7] - WSTS reported that the global semiconductor market size is expected to grow by 18.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching $346 billion [10] - SMIC's Zhao Haijun stated that the capacity shortage will last at least until October this year [7][14] - Samsung is reportedly extending its DDR4 production plan until December 2026 [7][18] - SK Hynix has significantly raised the pricing for HBM4 [7][19] Industry Trends - The Chinese government is pushing for breakthroughs in key brain-machine interface chips, focusing on high-speed, low-power signal processing [9] - Shanghai is accelerating the development of specialized chips for embodied intelligence [9] - The global semiconductor sales in Q2 2025 are projected to reach $179.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% [11] Company Updates - SMIC reported Q2 revenue of $2.21 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.5% [13][14] - Hua Hong Semiconductor achieved a Q2 revenue of $566 million, with a gross margin of 10.9% [13] - Samsung is investing in a new 1c DRAM production line, aiming for a monthly capacity of 150,000 to 200,000 wafers by mid-next year [15] Market Dynamics - The average trading price of PC DRAM products has increased for four consecutive months, with July's price reaching $3.90, a 50% month-on-month increase [19] - The advanced IC substrate market is expected to reach $31 billion by 2030, driven by AI and other emerging applications [11] Technological Advancements - Zhejiang University announced a breakthrough in neuromorphic computing with the launch of a new generation of brain-like computers, supporting over 2 billion neurons [21]