Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SMIC (中芯国际) [7] Core Insights - TSMC's revenue reached a historic high of NT$3.8 trillion (approximately RMB 850 billion), supported by government subsidies totaling NT$151.422 billion from the US, Japan, Germany, and China [3] - The demand for T-glass is exceeding supply, which is becoming a critical factor limiting AI hardware development [4] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant shift, with advanced process capacities becoming scarce resources as major tech companies compete for them [3] Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector saw a weekly increase of 2.19% in the Shenwan Semiconductor Index, reaching 8091.38 [13] - The semiconductor materials sector had the highest weekly increase of 7.47%, while the analog chip design sector had the lowest at 1.45% [16] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with significant inflows into electronic chemical products, while other electronic sectors experienced outflows [21] Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Key companies to watch include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Zhongcai Technology, and Honghe Technology [5] - SMIC's earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025E, and 2026E are 0.46, 0.63, and 0.77 respectively, with a PE ratio of 250.00, 182.54, and 148.93 [7] Global Semiconductor Sales - Global semiconductor sales reached USD 78.88 billion in December 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 37.1%, and China's sales accounted for 26.99% of the total [40]

Group 1 - The article discusses the proposed rule by the U.S. Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) Council to amend the Federal Acquisition Regulation to implement a semiconductor procurement ban related to specific Chinese companies [1] - The proposed regulation aims to restrict government agencies from acquiring semiconductor parts, products, or services traceable to certain Chinese firms, including those produced by companies like Zhongxin International and Changxin Storage [1] - The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) expressed opposition to the "Chip Security Act," emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to export controls and cautioning against untested and potentially impractical regulations [2] Group 2 - The SIA warns that hasty legislation imposing complex and costly security features could undermine global trust in U.S. semiconductor technology and hinder the export of American AI technology, ultimately weakening the country's global leadership and competitiveness [2] - The SIA is committed to collaborating with government agencies and stakeholders to prevent illegal transfers and misuse of semiconductor products, indicating readiness to work with Congress on effective risk mitigation strategies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for companies such as 中芯国际 (SMIC) and 通富微电 (Tongfu Microelectronics) [2][3] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a comprehensive "inflation" phase, with multiple segments seeing price increases due to rising costs and supply chain constraints [7][34] - AI demand is driving price hikes in PCB upstream materials, with significant increases in costs for electronic cloth and copper foil, leading to a new round of price increases in the CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) sector [10][17] - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is entering a price increase cycle, driven by high demand from AI servers and supply constraints from leading manufacturers [31][32] Summary by Sections 1. AI Demand Driving Price Increases in PCB Upstream Materials - The CCL industry has initiated a new round of price increases, with Japanese manufacturers announcing price hikes of over 30% for copper foil substrates and adhesive films [10] - The demand for high-end products is squeezing traditional production capacities, leading to tighter supply in electronic cloth [19] - The HVLP (High Voltage Low Profile) copper foil market is experiencing an expanding supply-demand gap, enhancing the industry's pricing power [24] 2. AI Industry Driving Demand Upward, MLCC Enters Price Increase Cycle - The MLCC sector is seeing a surge in prices, with a nearly 20% increase in spot prices and leading manufacturers considering price hikes due to sustained high demand from AI applications [31][32] - The global high-end MLCC market is currently in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with utilization rates of leading manufacturers reaching 90%-95% [32] 3. Upstream Raw Material Price Increases + AI Demand Driving Semiconductor Price Increases - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its price increase trend due to rising raw material costs and tight supply of 8-inch wafers [34] 4. Market Review - The electronic sector saw a weekly increase of 4.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 14.94% [37]

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 台积电营收创历史新高，T-glass供不 应求 半导体行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2026年03月03日 台积电 2025 年营收突破 3.8 万亿新台币（约合人民币 8500 亿 +），创历史新高；2024-2025 年合计获 各国政府补助 1514.22 亿新台币，成为美、日、德、中四大经济体争相用补贴争取的企业，各国通过资金 投入换取芯片产能与供应链安全，为台积电全球建厂提供了重要资金支撑。此外，台积电在全球范围内加速 建厂进度，面对关税威胁与地缘博弈的双重夹击，台积电通过在在中国台湾、美国、日本、中国大陆以及德 国等地区布局产能，巧妙地开启了去风险化进程。对于台积电而言，3nm、2nm甚至未来的1.6nm制程， 已经不再是试验性的技术指标，而是全球科技巨头争相抢购的稀缺资源。 T-glass供不应求，成为制约人工智能硬件的关键因素 随着人工智能芯片封装和基板尺寸的增大，以适应更高的计算能力（采用更多HBM内存和芯片组），支撑 它们的集成电路基板也必须随之增大，但必须谨慎操作，避免翘曲陷阱，因此需要使用低热膨胀系数（CTE） 的玻璃纤维。英伟达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tightening of U.S. procurement rules regarding semiconductor products from specific Chinese companies, indicating a significant shift in policy that could impact the global semiconductor industry [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Procurement Rule Changes - The U.S. Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) Council proposed amendments to the FAR to implement a procurement ban on semiconductors from certain Chinese companies as per the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2023 [2][4]. - The proposed rule prohibits federal agencies from acquiring semiconductor parts, products, or services traceable to specific Chinese enterprises, with stricter limitations on "critical systems" that extend to products designed or produced using these chips [4]. Group 2: Industry Response - The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) expressed opposition to the "Chip Security Act," emphasizing the need for careful consideration of new regulations that could harm the global trust in U.S. semiconductor technology and hinder AI technology exports [4]. - SIA's CEO John Neuffer highlighted concerns that rushed legislation could impose complex and costly security features that are untested, potentially undermining U.S. competitiveness in the semiconductor sector [4].

Core Insights - The global dedicated foundry market is projected to reach 1,148.5 billion RMB in 2025, marking a 25.46% increase from 2024, and is the first time it surpasses the 1 trillion RMB threshold [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The top 10 dedicated foundries are expected to generate a total revenue of 1,105.6 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a 26.12% growth compared to 2024, with a slight increase in market share by 0.52 percentage points [5]. - The overall revenue for dedicated foundries in 2025 is estimated at 1,148.5 billion RMB, with the top 10 accounting for 96.27% of the market share [5]. Group 2: Company Rankings and Performance - TSMC remains the leader in the dedicated foundry market, with a projected revenue of 852.8 billion RMB in 2025, up 31.69% from 2024, and an increased market share of 74.25% [5][6]. - SMIC ranks second with a revenue of 680 billion RMB, showing a growth of 19.51% and a market share of 6.22% [5][6]. - The third position is held by UMC, with a revenue of 521 billion RMB, reflecting a modest growth of 2.27% [5]. Group 3: Regional Insights - Among the top 10 dedicated foundries, four are based in mainland China, accounting for a combined market share of 10.44%, which is a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from 2024 [6]. - Taiwan's foundries hold a dominant market share of 80.68%, increasing by 2.15 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - The U.S. foundry GlobalFoundries has a market share of 4.21%, down 1.04 percentage points, while Israel's Tower has a market share of 0.95%, decreasing by 0.18 percentage points [6]. Group 4: Growth Drivers - TSMC's revenue growth is attributed to its advanced process technology and the Foundry 2.0 model, which integrates wafer manufacturing, advanced packaging, and testing, enhancing customer loyalty and competitive advantage [7]. - The net profit margin for TSMC is projected to reach 45% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [7]. - The years 2026 and 2027 are expected to be peak years for global foundry capacity expansion, with several companies, including SMIC and TSMC, planning to increase their production capacity [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating based on expected growth exceeding the market by over 15% in the next 3-6 months [63]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported a strong Q4 2025 performance with earnings per share of $1.62, surpassing analyst expectations by 5.81%, and revenue of $68.127 billion, exceeding forecasts by 3.22% [2]. - AMD has made significant strides in AI chip competition, signing a multi-year agreement with Meta to provide up to 6GW of AI computing power, potentially worth over $60 billion [2][60]. - OpenRouter data shows that during the week of February 9-15, 2026, the token usage of Chinese models surpassed that of U.S. models for the first time, indicating a growing demand for domestic AI capabilities [3][52]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - NVIDIA's Q4 2025 revenue was $68.127 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73.21%, with a guidance of $78 billion for Q1 2026, exceeding analyst expectations [2]. - Xuchuang reported a full-year revenue of 38.24 billion yuan for 2025, with a Q4 revenue of 13.235 billion yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 102% [2][10]. Market Trends - The server index increased by 3.65% this week, driven by AMD's agreement with Meta, highlighting the rising global demand for AI computing power [3][7]. - The optical module index rose by 4.84% this week, with NVIDIA's performance and guidance contributing to positive market sentiment despite concerns over competition [3][10]. Industry Developments - The IDC index increased by 2.41% this week, with significant growth in AI model usage in China, indicating a shift in the global AI landscape [3][13]. - The telecommunications sector saw a cumulative revenue of 1.75 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, reflecting steady demand in the industry [4][16]. Future Outlook - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference is expected to unveil the next-generation Feynman chip, which will utilize a groundbreaking 1.6nm process technology, potentially catalyzing advancements in optical communication [2][10]. - The report suggests that 2026 may be a pivotal year for domestic AI capabilities, with local chip manufacturers aiming to significantly increase production using advanced technology [3][50].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating based on expected growth exceeding the market by over 15% in the next 3-6 months [63]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported a strong Q4 2025 performance with earnings per share of $1.62, surpassing analyst expectations by 5.81%, and revenue of $68.127 billion, exceeding forecasts by 3.22% [2]. - The company provided optimistic guidance for Q1 2026, projecting revenue of $78 billion, which is above analyst expectations [2]. - AMD has made significant strides in AI chip competition by signing a multi-year agreement with Meta to provide up to 6GW of AI computing power, indicating a growing global demand for computing power [2][7]. - OpenRouter data shows that during the week of February 9-15, 2026, the token usage of Chinese models surpassed that of U.S. models for the first time, highlighting the rapid growth of AI capabilities in China [3][52]. Summary by Sections Server Sector - The server index increased by 3.65% this week and 3.39% for the month, driven by AMD's agreement with Meta for AI computing power [3][7]. Optical Modules - The optical module index rose by 4.84% this week and 4.14% for the month, with NVIDIA's performance and guidance exceeding expectations, although market reactions were muted due to competitive concerns [3][10]. IDC (Internet Data Center) - The IDC index increased by 2.41% this week and 2.44% for the month, with significant growth in token usage for Chinese AI models, indicating a robust demand for domestic AI infrastructure [3][13]. Telecommunications - Telecommunications revenue reached 1.75 trillion yuan in 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, with a notable increase in capital expenditures from major tech companies [4][16]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as servers and IDC driven by domestic AI development, as well as optical modules benefiting from overseas AI advancements [5].

行 业 研 究 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -38% -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 电子 沪深300 相关研究报告 《海内外大模型密集更新，推动 AI 算 力需求持续增长—行业点评报告》 -2026.2.23 《JX 金属指引明确行业景气度，靶材 成为半导体金铲子—行业点评报告》 -2026.2.13 《关注半导体自主可控和涨价连锁反 应—行业点评报告》-2026.2.9 SK 海力士打响存储扩产第一枪，3 月看好设备+耗材 扩产链 ——行业点评报告 陈蓉芳（分析师） 向俊儒（联系人） chenrongfang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524120002 xiangjuru@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070018 事件：SK 海力士 150 亿美金追投，打响全球存储扩产第一枪 2 月 25 日，SK 海力士宣布 2030 年前投资 21.6 万亿韩元（约 150.7 亿美元）， 用于建设首座厂房及洁净室设施，预计洁净室的开放时间将从原定的 2027 年 5 ...

来源：朝阳永续 3)资本开支和营收增长：2025年资本开支为81亿美元，高于预期，2026年预计销售收入增幅高于同业平 均值，资本开支与2025年大致持平。 1. 中芯国际全年业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2026年02月27日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 分业务来说： 1)产业链本土化切换：中芯国际受益于产业链向本土化切换带来的重组效应，特别是在模拟类电路、显 示驱动、摄像头、存储等领域。 2)产能利用率和扩产：公司产能利用率保持在95.7%，8英寸和12英寸产能接近满载，同时在BCD、模 拟、存储、MCU、中高端显示驱动等细分领域加速验证并扩产上量。 预测营业收入751.11~812.80亿元；预测净利润50.53~74.49亿元。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续A股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 2. 中芯国际最新卖方观点 中邮证券认为：中芯国际在25Q4季度表现出淡季不淡的销售趋势，销售收入达到24.89亿美元，环比增 长4.5%。公司产能利用率保持在95.7%，8英寸和12英寸产能接近满载，得益于产业链向本土化切换带 来的重组效应。公司在BCD、模拟、存储、MCU、中高端显示驱动等 ...