3月10日，香港恒生指数开盘涨1.31%，恒生科技指数涨2%。 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | | 迅策 | 13.99% | 132.000 | | 智谱 | 12.70% | 648.000 | | 第17 | 5.33% | 7.710 | | MINIMAX-WP | 4.91% | 1046.000 | | 讯飞医疗科技 | 4.38% | 81.050 | | 汇量科技 | 3.61% | 12.920 | | 美图公司 | 3.51% | 5.600 | | 万咖壹联 | 2.87% | 1.790 | | 范式智能 | 2.61% | 39.300 | | 趣致集团 | 2.32% | 19.850 | | 微盟集团 | 2.27% | 1.800 | | 金蝶国际 | 2.15% | 10.000 | | 阅文集团 | 1.91% | 30.880 | 宁德时代涨近6%。 编辑丨瑜见 | 名称 | 现价 | | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 25740.29 331.83 1.31% | | 恒生科技 | 5040.80 99.07 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the mobile gaming industry, particularly in the advertising monetization segment, which is expected to grow significantly by 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - By 2025, global mobile game revenue is projected to exceed $500 billion, accounting for 55% of total global game revenue, with advertising monetization reaching $9.8 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase [4]. - The mobile game advertising market is entering a phase of "stock cultivation and structural optimization," with over 70% of advertising budgets directed towards mid-to-heavy games and high DAU casual games [5]. - The integration of generative AI is transforming the advertising material production chain, leading to explosive growth in material output and improved click-through rates for incentivized video ads [6]. - In China, the mobile gaming market is expected to achieve actual sales revenue of approximately ¥257.08 billion, a 7.92% year-on-year increase, driven by the normalization of game license issuance and the rise of high-quality new games [7]. Summary by Sections Global Overview - The global mobile gaming market is experiencing steady revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 1%-2% expected [18]. - The download share on Google Play has decreased from 85% in 2022 to 74% in 2025, while the App Store's share has increased from 15% to 26%, indicating a shift towards higher-value users [18]. Global Mobile Game Advertising Monetization - The eCPM for incentivized video ads in the US and Europe has significantly increased, reaching $27.03 in 2025, doubling from the previous year [43]. - The overall eCPM performance is highest in Europe, followed by Japan and South Korea, with emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America still in the growth phase [43]. China Market Insights - The mobile game advertising revenue in China is projected to reach ¥11.68 billion in 2025, reflecting a 9.1% year-on-year growth [7]. - The competition in the mid-to-heavy mobile game segment is intensifying, leading developers to explore diverse advertising monetization strategies [7]. Technological Innovations - AI is expected to penetrate deeply into the advertising monetization process, enhancing operational capabilities towards precision and intelligence [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of localized operations and continuous iteration of monetization models to foster sustainable development in the industry [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the semiconductor industry is maintained as "Buy" for specific companies such as SMIC and Haiguang Information, while Huahong is not rated [2][7]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a structural increase in prosperity driven by strong demand for AI computing power, leading to significant price increases across the supply chain, ranging from 10% to 80% [3]. - The AI Agent era is redefining the value of CPUs, which are now critical for AI responsiveness and cost efficiency, resulting in a shortage of CPUs in the market [4]. - The report highlights a divergence in recovery within the semiconductor industry, with leading companies like Baiwei Storage seeing substantial profit increases, while many others continue to struggle with losses [3]. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a price surge due to AI infrastructure demands, with the global AI chip market projected to grow from $11 billion in 2019 to $72.6 billion by 2025 [3]. - The utilization rate of SMIC's production capacity is reported at 93.5%, contrasting with the financial struggles of many other chip companies [3]. - The report notes that the semiconductor industry is not experiencing a broad recovery but rather a localized increase in prosperity centered around AI technologies [3]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Key companies to watch include: - SMIC (688981.SH): Price at 106.5, EPS forecast for 2026 at 0.77, with a PE ratio of 137.76, rated as "Buy" [7]. - Huahong (688347.SH): Price at 117.79, EPS forecast for 2026 at 0.64, currently unrated [7]. - Tian Shu Zhi Xin (9903.HK): Price at 259.6, EPS forecast for 2026 at -1.78, rated as "Buy" [7]. - Haiguang Information (688041.SH): Price at 241.9, EPS forecast for 2026 at 2, rated as "Buy" [7]. - Xinyuan (688521.SH): Price at 240.85, EPS forecast for 2026 at 0.33, rated as "Increase" [7]. Market Trends - The semiconductor index showed a decline of 5.57% during the week of March 2-6, 2026, indicating a volatile market environment [13]. - The report indicates that the semiconductor materials sector experienced the largest decline of 8.97% during the same period [16]. - The report also highlights that the demand for NAND and DRAM chips is increasing due to AI applications, with NAND prices rising significantly [52][66].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the semiconductor industry is maintained as "Buy" for specific companies such as SMIC and Haiguang Information, while Huahong is not rated [2][7]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a structural increase in prosperity driven by strong demand for AI computing power, leading to significant price increases across the supply chain, with price hikes ranging from 10% to 80% [3]. - The AI Agent era is redefining the value of CPUs, which are now critical for AI responsiveness and cost efficiency, resulting in a shortage of CPUs in the market [4]. - The report highlights a divergence in the industry's recovery, with leading companies like Baiwei Storage seeing substantial profit increases, while many chip companies continue to struggle with losses [3]. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a price surge due to AI infrastructure demands, with the global AI chip market expected to grow from $11 billion in 2019 to $72.6 billion by 2025 [3]. - The semiconductor index showed a decline of 5.57% during the week of March 2-6, 2026, indicating a volatile market environment [13]. - The semiconductor materials sector experienced the largest decline of 8.97%, while the digital chip design sector saw the smallest decline of 4.52% during the same period [16]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Key companies to watch include SMIC, Huahong, Tian Shu Zhi Xin, Haiguang Information, and Xinyuan [5]. - SMIC's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.46 in 2024 to 0.77 in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 231.52 to 137.76 [7]. - Tian Shu Zhi Xin is expected to improve its EPS from -5.89 in 2024 to -1.78 in 2026, with a significant negative PE ratio [7]. Global Semiconductor Sales - Global semiconductor sales reached $82.54 billion in January 2026, marking a 46.1% year-on-year increase, with China contributing $22.82 billion [35]. - The sales of semiconductor equipment in China reached $14.56 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 12.61% year-on-year growth [39]. NAND Flash Market Insights - The NAND Flash market is projected to see a revenue increase of 23.8% in Q4 2025, driven by AI infrastructure demands and a shortage of mechanical hard drives [63]. - Major NAND manufacturers are expected to maintain high prices due to supply-demand imbalances, with price increases projected at 85% to 90% in Q1 2026 [65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is the third-largest foundry globally, benefiting from the rise of domestic enterprises and the trend of localized manufacturing [1][11] - The semiconductor industry has long-term growth potential, characterized by cyclical and growth aspects, with global semiconductor sales expected to reach a record high of $791.6 billion in 2025 [2][34] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from $31 billion in 2017 to $93 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 15% [20] - The company maintains a high capacity utilization rate, expected to reach 95.7% by Q4 2025, driven by the increasing demand from Chinese chip design companies [2][55] Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 are $9.3 billion and $685 million, respectively, with a net profit CAGR of 18% from 2017 to 2025 [4][20] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 21% in 2025, with over 90% of revenue coming from integrated circuit foundry services [23][29] - The company plans to increase its capital expenditure significantly, reaching $8.1 billion by 2025 to support capacity expansion [56][59] Market Dynamics - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing number of Chinese chip design firms, which are expected to grow from 1,380 in 2017 to 3,901 by 2025, with a CAGR of 14% [43] - The demand for 12-inch wafers is rising, with their revenue share expected to increase to 77% by 2025, while the share of 8-inch wafers declines to 23% [29][31] - The global semiconductor sales are projected to continue double-digit growth into 2026, indicating a robust market environment [34]

翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) FF305 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中芯國際集成電路製造有限公司 呈交日期： 2026年3月6日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 第 1 頁 共 7 頁 v 1.3.0 | 2). 就根據股份計劃授予參與人（發行人的董事除外）的股份獎勵或期權 | | 32,561 | 0.00041 % | HKD | 0.031 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 而發行新股或轉讓庫存股份 - 涉及新股 | | | | | | | | 非本公司董事因行使根據2024年股份獎勵計劃(於2023年6月28日獲 | | | | | | | | 採納)所授予的限制性股票单位而發行的普通股股份 | | | | | | ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中芯國際集成電路製造有限公司 呈交日期： 2026年3月6日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00981 | 說明 港股 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | | 已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is the third-largest foundry globally, benefiting from the rise of domestic enterprises and the trend of localized manufacturing [1][11] - The semiconductor industry has long-term growth potential, characterized by cyclical and growth aspects, with global semiconductor sales expected to reach a record high of $791.6 billion in 2025 [2][34] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from $31 billion in 2017 to $93 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 15% [20] - The company’s net profit is expected to recover to $685 million in 2025, following a significant decline in previous years [4][20] Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023: Revenue of $6.32 billion, Net profit of $903 million - 2024: Revenue of $8.03 billion, Net profit of $493 million - 2025: Revenue of $9.33 billion, Net profit of $685 million - 2026: Revenue of $11.01 billion, Net profit of $876 million - 2027: Revenue of $12.53 billion, Net profit of $1.03 billion [4] - The company’s capital expenditure is expected to increase significantly, reaching $8.1 billion by 2025 [56] Market Position and Capacity - The company’s production capacity is expected to reach 1.059 million 8-inch wafers per month by the end of 2025, with an additional 40,000 12-inch wafers expected by the end of 2026 [59] - The company has maintained a high capacity utilization rate, exceeding that of its competitors since Q2 2023 [55] Revenue Composition - Over 90% of the company’s revenue comes from wafer foundry services, with 12-inch wafers accounting for 77% and 8-inch wafers for 23% of the revenue by 2025 [29] - The downstream revenue composition includes consumer electronics (43%), smartphones (23%), computers and tablets (15%), industrial and automotive (11%), and IoT and wearables (8%) [29] Industry Trends - The rise of Chinese chip design companies is driving demand for localized manufacturing, contributing to the company’s growth [43] - The global semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trend, with significant growth in fabless companies, which are projected to increase from 1 in 2008 to 5 by 2024 [2][38]

Summary of SMIC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) - **Stock Codes**: 0981.HK (H-share), 688981.SS (A-share) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Points 1. Positive Outlook on China's Semiconductor Capital Expenditure - Management expresses optimism regarding the ongoing up-cycle in China's semiconductor capacity expansions, expecting elevated capital expenditure (capex) levels to persist through 2030 driven by advanced logic and memory sectors [2][4] - The growth in capex is anticipated to narrow the gap between domestic supply chains and international leaders, supporting local semiconductor equipment (SPE) companies [2] 2. Technology Migration Trends - Domestic fabless customers are reportedly advancing in technology, which is expected to bolster SMIC's growth [3] - Recent years have seen an increase in the presence of Chinese fabless companies in both domestic and global markets, attributed to continuous product development and rapid technology iterations [3] 3. Investment Thesis for SMIC - SMIC is recognized as the largest foundry in China by capacity and revenue, covering a wide range of technology from 0.35um to 14nm for various applications including smartphones and automotive [4] - Long-term growth is supported by increasing demand from local fabless customers, with expectations of a gradual recovery in margins due to improved utilization rates offsetting pricing competition and depreciation pressures [4][8] 4. Valuation and Price Targets - The 12-month target price for SMIC's H-share is set at HK$134.00, reflecting an upside potential of 114.2% based on an 80.3x 2028E P/E ratio [9][11] - The target price for the A-share is Rmb241.60, representing a 196% premium over the H-share, consistent with historical averages [9] 5. Risks to Investment Thesis - Key risks include weaker-than-expected demand in smartphones and consumer electronics, slower product diversification and capacity expansions, and potential restrictions on access to certain equipment/materials due to the company's listing on the US BIS Entity List [10] 6. Financial Projections - Projected revenue growth from $9.33 billion in 2025 to $16.66 billion by 2028, with EBITDA increasing from $4.92 billion to $8.51 billion over the same period [11] 7. Analyst Ratings - SMIC is rated as a "Buy" for both A and H shares, indicating strong confidence in the company's growth potential and market position [8][9] Additional Insights - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing a significant transformation, with local companies increasingly investing in technology and capacity to compete globally [2][3] - The positive sentiment from management reflects a broader trend of recovery and growth within the semiconductor sector, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements [2][3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The optical communication chip is identified as the core engine for optical interconnection, with domestic market share expected to increase significantly due to the low self-sufficiency rate in high-speed optical communication chips in China, currently only 7% in the 25G and above segment [1][2] - The report highlights the transition from module assembly to chip definition in the optical communication industry, emphasizing the importance of TIA and Driver chips in enhancing signal speed and reducing power consumption [1] - The evolution of XPO technology is projected to significantly increase the value of optical communication chips, as it removes the need for high-cost DSP chips, redistributing value to TIA and Driver components [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The optical communication chip market is characterized by a stable global supplier competition landscape, with domestic chip capabilities expected to rise alongside the increasing market share of local optical module companies [2] Technological Advancements - The integration of advanced packaging and system architecture is set to open up new opportunities in optical interconnection, facilitating a shift from mid-range to chip-level interconnection markets [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key companies involved in optical communication chip design and manufacturing, including companies like 优迅股份, 中晟微电子, MACOM, Semtech, MaxLinear, and 玏芯科技 for design, and Tower and 中芯国际 for manufacturing [3]