Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI demand will "never be satisfied" for a certain period, leading to ongoing investment in storage technology and a sustained shortage of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for several years [1] - Future constraints on HBM capacity will not stem from the front-end wafer production but rather from back-end testing and other processes [1] - It is predicted that storage capacity will increase, with manufacturers able to receive equipment in as little as 4 months, while others may take up to 9 months, leading to increased front-end wafer production capacity after 9 months [1] Group 2 - The increased capacity will not be immediately available for AI data centers requiring HBM but will instead be allocated to consumer products [3] - This allocation will result in the release of inventory held by intermediaries, benefiting the smartphone and computer markets, potentially reversing trends in the mid-range smartphone market in the third quarter of this year [3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the market index in the next six months [41]. Core Insights - The SW Electronics sector's fund heavy positions and overweight ratios have increased year-on-year but decreased quarter-on-quarter, indicating a high level of interest despite recent declines [1][11]. - The focus for Q4 2025 is on AI computing power and semiconductor self-sufficiency, with key stocks including Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and SMIC leading the way [2][22]. - The semiconductor and components sectors are currently overweight, while consumer electronics have shifted to an underweight position [3][31]. Summary by Sections Fund Heavy Positions and Overweight Ratios - In Q4 2025, the SW Electronics sector's allocation ratio is 11.90%, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.52 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 3.05 percentage points. The fund heavy position ratio is 20.22%, down 1.92 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but up 3.28 percentage points year-on-year. The overweight ratio stands at 8.32%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.39 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 0.23 percentage points [1][11][13]. Top Heavy Positions - The top ten stocks in the SW Electronics sector for Q4 2025 include Cambricon, Haiguang Information, SMIC, Luxshare Precision, and others, with semiconductor stocks making up 70% of the list. The performance of these stocks has varied, with only 40% showing gains in the quarter [2][16][22]. Focus Areas - The investment focus remains on AI computing and storage, with significant interest in companies like Cambricon and Dongshan Precision, which are leaders in their respective fields. The semiconductor self-sufficiency trend is also highlighted, with companies like Tuojing Technology and Hu Silicon Industry benefiting from domestic equipment adoption [2][22]. Subsector Allocation - The semiconductor sector is still a key focus for institutional investors, with an overweight ratio of 7.74%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.76 percentage points. The components sector has seen a slight increase in its overweight ratio to 1.75%. In contrast, consumer electronics have shifted from overweight to underweight, now at 0.45% [3][31]. Concentration of Fund Heavy Positions - The concentration of the top five fund heavy positions in the SW Electronics sector has decreased, with their market value accounting for 35.52% of the total fund heavy positions, down 0.84 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. This trend indicates a diversification in fund allocations [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing and semiconductor self-sufficiency as key investment opportunities. It recommends monitoring the performance of PCB and storage sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growth in AI computing [4][37].

2月12日，A股市场震荡上行，科创芯片板块午后异军突起！截至14:53，科创芯片ETF汇添富（588750）涨超2%，环比小幅放量！ 科创芯片ETF汇添富（588750）标的指数成分股多数冲高，芯原股份涨近13%，佰维存储涨超7%，寒武纪涨超3%，海光信息涨超2%，中芯国际等涨幅居 前。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权車 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 688041 | 海光信息 | 电子 | 2.89% | 10.20% | | 2 | 688008 | 淘起科技 | 曲子 | -0.86% | 9.96% | | 3 | 688981 | 中心国际 | 电子 | 1.41% | 8.67% | | 4 | 688012 | 中微公司 | 电子 | -0.67% | 7.79% | | 5 | ୧୫୫25୧ | 寒武纪-U | 电子 | 3.17% | 6.71% | | 6 | 688521 | 芯原股份 | 电子 | 12.92% | 4.48% | | 7 | 688498 | 源杰科技 | 电子 | ...

中芯去年第四季的业绩及首季指引均大致符合该行预期。虽然受记忆体短缺所限，但消费类电子产品仍 维持稳健需求，公司预期记忆体短缺状况将在9至12个月内缓解。中芯2026年资本开支将维持于81亿美 元，折旧费用则同比增长30%。 智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，下调中芯国际(00981) 2026及27年盈测14%和11%，但维持H股目 标价93.3港元及"跑赢大市"评级，至于中芯(688981.SH)A股则续予目标价152元人民币及"跑赢大市"评 级。 ...

中芯去年第四季的业绩及首季指引均大致符合该行预期。虽然受记忆体短缺所限，但消费类电子产品仍 维持稳健需求，公司预期记忆体短缺状况将在9至12个月内缓解。中芯2026年资本开支将维持于81亿美 元，折旧费用则同比增长30%。 里昂发布研报称，下调中芯国际(00981) 2026及27年盈测14%和11%，但维持H股目标价93.3港元及"跑赢 大市"评级，至于中芯(688981.SH)A股则续予目标价152元人民币及"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

格隆汇2月12日｜野村研究报告指，中芯国际(0981.HK)2025年第四季晶圆收入及毛利率均符合预期。公 司指引2026年第一季收入按季持平，毛利率介乎18%至20%，同样符合该行预期。管理层预期2026年全 年收入增长将高于可比同业平均水平，该行认为实际增长达中至高十位数。公司预期内地半导体国产化 趋势持续，将继续支持2026年的收入增长，并表示有意变现Analog/BCD及记忆体方面的强劲需求，其 均受AI推动。该行维持中性评级及目标价75港元。 ...

里昂发表研报指，中芯国际去年第四季的业绩及首季指引均大致符合预期。虽然受存储器短缺所限，但 消费类电子产品仍维持稳健需求，公司预期存储器短缺状况将在9至12个月内缓解。中芯2026年资本开 支将维持于81亿美元，折旧费用则按年增长30%。该行下调中芯2026及27年盈测14%和11%，H股目标 价为93.3港元，A股目标价为152元，均维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

摩根大通发表研报指，中芯国际去年第四季毛利率逊预期，主要是由于折旧上升。展望2026年，尽管收 入将录得15%左右增长，但受2025/26年度的巨额资本开支影响，折旧成本攀升30%，导致毛利率料将持 续受压。此外，摩通认为智能电话、个人计算机及消费电子方面的需求压力，会导致均价停滞并难以显 著上升，维持"减持"评级及目标价57港元。 ...

瑞银发布研报称，上调中芯国际(00981) 2026至2029年营收预测4%，以反映更大的国产化机会与更佳的 供需态势；但下调盈利预测8%至18%，以反映更高的折旧负担。予目标价76港元，基于未来12个月预 测3.3倍股价净值比，长期股东权益报酬率11.3%计；维持"中性"评级。 中芯国际去年末季纯利按季增4.5%，较往常季节性好，亦较早前指引按季升介乎0%至2%为佳，亦优于 市场预测按季增1.3%，主要得益于晶圆出货量与混合平均售价两者小幅增长。毛利率19.2%，符合介乎 18%至20%的指引，但低于市场预期的20%。 瑞银表示，随着8吋晶片产能利用率超过100%、12英寸晶片接近满载运转，管理层预测今年资本支出将 与去年的81亿美元持平，今年底产能预计增加40kwpm /12英寸产能，以应对中国无晶圆厂企业持续强 劲的国产化需求，中芯国际亦将目标锁定在BCD晶片、内存及内存相关产品等供应紧张的领域，以进 行扩张。管理层预测今年首季销售持平，毛利率介于18%至20%，今年销售增长将高于业界平均水平。 该行续指，业务持续扩产下，管理层预测今年折旧费用将年增30%，且明年仍将维持高位，对毛利形成 进一步压力。瑞 ...

高盛发布研报称，中芯国际(00981)2025年第四季营运利润胜预期，今年首季收入指引符预期。基于乐 观增长前景，高盛预期中芯国际将持续扩产并推进先进制程技术转移。目标价134港元，评级"买入"。 该行预期公司今年将受惠于国内客户需求增长、持续扩增产能，以及产品组合优化，高毛利产品需求增 速将超越传统产品。该公司于2025年新增4.9万片晶圆/周产能(以12英寸晶圆计)，同时维持强劲的晶圆 良率，反映出AI热潮、供应链产业重组契机及"本土化生产"趋势下的需求增长。 ...