Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing structural opportunities characterized by "capacity expansion" and "supply chain security," driven by AI and domestic substitution trends [1][7]. Semiconductor Industry Overview - The A-share market saw fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81% and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 0.29% [1]. - AI and high-performance storage demands are driving rapid capacity expansion in advanced processes, directly increasing global silicon wafer shipments and capital expenditures in wafer fabs [1][9]. - Despite a mixed performance in the semiconductor sector since October, the long-term development logic supporting domestic semiconductor stocks remains unchanged [1][8]. AI and Semiconductor Market Dynamics - AI applications are gaining strength, with companies like Rongji Software and Alibaba's "Qianwen" project making significant market moves [2][4]. - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a rebound, with companies like Longxin and Jingchen seeing substantial stock price increases, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor equipment market [4][5]. Price Trends in Memory Chips - Samsung has raised prices for server DDR5 memory chips by 30-60% due to supply shortages driven by the AI data center boom [5][6]. - NAND flash prices are also increasing, with major manufacturers implementing production cuts, leading to a projected price increase of 20-30% [6]. Capacity Utilization and Expansion - Domestic wafer manufacturers are experiencing high capacity utilization rates, with companies like SMIC reporting 95.8% utilization in Q3 [11]. - The ongoing demand for storage chips is expected to sustain the supply-demand imbalance, leading to continued price increases and capital expenditure growth in the semiconductor sector [6][12]. Investment Opportunities - The semiconductor equipment ETF, E Fund (159558), has seen a year-to-date increase of 45.98%, reflecting strong market interest in domestic substitution and key industry players [12][17]. - Companies like Cambrian Technology have reported significant revenue growth, with a nearly 24-fold increase in revenue year-over-year [14]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor sector is positioned to benefit from the anticipated AI demand and capacity expansion in the coming year, despite recent market fluctuations [16]. - The upcoming financial reports from major tech companies like NVIDIA and Alibaba are expected to provide positive signals for the semiconductor market, potentially catalyzing a rebound in A-share tech stocks [16].

SMIC 0981.HK 981 HK EQUITY: FOUNDRY No material change to near-term demand Memory price a swing factor to 2026E end-demand outlook; maintain Neutral Play safe previewing next year; maintain Neutral and raise TP to HKD75.0 SMIC expects full loadings in a seasonally slower 4Q25E, driven by continued supply chain localization, including its domestic customers' share gains at the expense of overseas counterparts. While management sees rush orders pulling in chips to match memory supply secured for device builds ...

Market Overview - The market opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day, with all three major indices dropping over 1% in the afternoon. The total trading volume reached 1.94 trillion [1] - AI application stocks surged against the trend, with companies like Xuan Ya International and Guangyun Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The semiconductor sector experienced a brief rally before retreating, with Longxun Co. and Dawei Co. also reaching the daily limit. Conversely, the coal sector declined, with Yunmei Energy hitting the daily limit [1] AI Applications - The AI application sector saw a significant rise, with companies such as Inspur Software, Geer Software, and Rongji Software achieving consecutive gains. Xuan Ya International and Guangyun Technology also hit the daily limit [4] - Ant Group launched a general AI assistant called "Lingguang" on November 18, capable of generating applications in 30 seconds using natural language, marking a significant industry milestone [4] - Google's upcoming Gemini 3.0 AI model is generating considerable industry interest, with predictions indicating its release next week [4][6] Semiconductor Industry - Domestic semiconductor stocks experienced a notable increase, with companies like Yaxiang Integrated and Longxun Co. hitting the daily limit [7] - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) reported a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply shortage [7] - SMIC is prioritizing urgent orders for various semiconductor products, which has led to a temporary decrease in mobile phone business share [7][9] Investment Insights - Huatai Securities suggests that Alibaba's increased investment in consumer-facing AI applications will likely lead to sustained growth in data center energy consumption, benefiting its AI infrastructure partners in the long term [4] - Guosheng Securities highlights Google's strategic approach of building a comprehensive "infrastructure-model-scenario" system, leveraging its self-developed chips and extensive data center network [6] - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see positive growth trends, with companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei Technology reporting significant revenue increases in Q3 [9]

该行指，即使先进制程产品需求强劲，加上产能利用率接近饱和，公司的毛利率仍维持在低20%水平， 并预期未来几年毛利率难以显著提升，因折旧成本快速上升。此外，该行留意到先进制程节点的良率仍 然偏低，即使相关产品的占比持续提升，但整体平均售价仍然承压。 摩根大通发布研报称，中芯国际(00981)股价在第三季显著上升，因公司作为内地领先的晶圆代工生产 增长指标，支持AI芯片国产化生产。不过，该行认为需要见到实际盈利数据，才能支持估值持续溢 价，而在未来6至12个月内实现的可能性较低。该行维持谨慎看法，续予"减持"评级，将2026及27年每 股盈利预测分别上调8%及42%，目标价由36港元上调至57港元。 ...

该行指，即使先进制程产品需求强劲，加上产能利用率接近饱和，公司的毛利率仍维持在低20%水平， 并预期未来几年毛利率难以显著提升，因折旧成本快速上升。此外，该行留意到先进制程节点的良率仍 然偏低，即使相关产品的占比持续提升，但整体平均售价仍然承压。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，中芯国际(00981)股价在第三季显著上升，因公司作为内地领 先的晶圆代工生产增长指标，支持AI芯片国产化生产。不过，该行认为需要见到实际盈利数据，才能 支持估值持续溢价，而在未来6至12个月内实现的可能性较低。该行维持谨慎看法，续予"减持"评级， 将2026及27年每股盈利预测分别上调8%及42%，目标价由36港元上调至57港元。 ...

以下为研究报告摘要： 全行业：本周上证指数下跌0.18%，深证成指下跌1.40%，沪深300指数下跌1.08%，申万电子版块下降 4.77%，电子行业在全行业中的涨跌幅排名为30/31。板块个股涨幅前五名分别为：神工股份、百邦科 技、胜利精密、联动科技、奥尼科技；跌幅前五名分别为：京泉华、天承科技、康强电子、统联精密、 三环集团。 来源：中国能源网 金元证券近日发布电子行业周度点评报告：电子行业整体呈现震荡分化的格局，板块表现冷热不均。从 申万二级行业数据来看，各板块涨跌互现。其中，其他电子Ⅱ板块本周下跌-2.29%，但在多数板块普跌 的背景下相对抗跌；其下申万三级行业中其他电子Ⅲ同样下跌-2.29%，走势基本一致。 电子行业：电子行业整体呈现震荡分化的格局，板块表现冷热不均。从申万二级行业数据来看，各板块 涨跌互现。其中，其他电子Ⅱ板块本周下跌-2.29%，但在多数板块普跌的背景下相对抗跌；其下申万三 级行业中其他电子Ⅲ同样下跌-2.29%，走势基本一致。元件板块下跌-9.25%，为本周表现最弱的方向， 细分来看，印制电路板下跌-1.97%，被动元件大幅下跌-7.92%，分化明显。半导体板块整体下 跌-3. ...

| 代码 名称 | | 现价 | 张跌 | 张唱↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688727 N 自由 | | 58.28 +43.29+288.79% | | | | 688486 龙迅股份 | | 79.86 +13.31 +20.00% | | | | 688099 晶晨股份 | | 90.30 +10.15 +12.43% | | | | 688110 东芯胶份 | | 107.41 +10.94 +11.34% | | | | 002213 大为股份 | | 30.28 | +2.75 | +9.99% | | 688699 明微电子 | | 45.18 | +4.04 | +9.82% | | 688652 京仪装备 | | 98.22 | +7.02 | +7.70% | | 002371 | 北方华创 | 422.80 +22.12 | | +5.52% | | 688147 微导纳米 | | 62.70 | +3.22 | +5.41% | | 688498 源杰科技 | | 555.50 +28.49 | | +5.27% | | 688401 ...

风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 11月18日，半导体ETF南方（159325）开盘涨0.42%，报1.428元。半导体ETF南方（159325）重仓股方 面，中芯国际开盘跌0.11%，寒武纪涨0.22%，海光信息跌0.35%，北方华创跌0.19%，澜起科技跌 0.33%，兆易创新跌1.07%，中微公司跌0.87%，豪威集团涨0.01%，长电科技跌0.19%，紫光国微跌 0.46%。 半导体ETF南方（159325）业绩比较基准为中证半导体行业精选指数收益率，管理人为南方基金管理股 份有限公司，基金经理为赵卓雄、何典鸿，成立（2024-10-31）以来回报为41.88%，近一个月回报 为-2.43%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

该行维持谨慎看法，续予"减持"评级，将2026及27年每股盈利预测分别上调8%及42%，目标价由36港 元上调至57港元。 该行指，即使先进制程产品需求强劲，加上产能利用率接近饱和，公司的毛利率仍维持在低20%水平， 并预期未来几年毛利率难以显著提升，因折旧成本快速上升。此外，该行留意到先进制程节点的良率仍 然偏低，即使相关产品的占比持续提升，但整体平均售价仍然承压。 摩根大通发表研究报告指，中芯国际股价在第三季显著上升，因公司作为内地领先的晶圆代工生产增长 指标，支持AI芯片国产化生产。不过，该行认为需要见到实际盈利数据，才能支持估值持续溢价，而 在未来6至12个月内实现的可能性较低。 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月18日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251118 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.中芯国际三季度产能利用率与ASP双增，百度公布昆仑芯五年路线图——电子行业周报 2025/11/10-2025/11/16 ➢ 2.关注反内卷成效与科技赋能驱动——资产配置周报（2025/11/10-2025/11/14） ➢ 1.中德高级别财金对话联合声明发布 ➢ 2.财政部发布10月财政收支数据 ➢ 3.日本三季度实际GDP略好于预期 | 1.1. 中芯国际三季度产能利用率与 ASP 双增，百度公布 ...