Stock Performance - Hong Kong semiconductor stocks mostly rose with Pentamaster Corporation surging 16% [1] - HG Semiconductor and SMIC gained 6 90% and 6 88% respectively [1] - Solomon Systech and Hua Hong Semiconductor also performed well increasing by 4 44% and 4 15% respectively [1] - Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics and China Electronics Huada Technology rose 3 82% and 2 44% respectively [1]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中芯國際集成電路製造有限公司 呈交日期： 2024年12月9日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00981 | 說明 港股 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2024年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中芯國際集成電路製造有限公司 呈交日期: 2024年12月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 III.已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動詳情 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00981 | 說明 | 港股 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,986,252,614 | | 0 | | 5,986,252,614 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 856,232 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,987,108 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中芯國際集成電路製造有限公司 呈交日期： 2024年11月27日 第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.3.0 | 2). | 就根據股份計劃授予參與人（發行人的董事除外）的股份獎勵或期權 | 2,000 | 0.00003 % | HKD | 18.096 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 而發行新股或轉讓庫存股份 - 涉及新股 | | | | | | | 2014以認股權計劃(於2013年6月13日獲採納) | | | | | | | 變動日期 2024年11月1日 | | | | | | 3). | 就根據股份計劃授予參與人（發行人的董事除外）的股份獎勵或期權 | 24,400 | 0.00031 % | HKD | 10.512 | | | 而發行新股或轉讓庫存股份 - 涉及新股 | | | | | | | 2014以認股權計劃(於2013年6月13日獲採納) | | | | | | | 變動日期 2 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [2] Core Views - SMIC achieved record-high revenue in Q3 2024 driven by strong domestic demand for wafers, with revenue reaching RMB 15.6 billion, up 14% QoQ and 33% YoY [4] - Q3 gross margin improved significantly to 21%, up 7 percentage points QoQ, due to higher ASPs for 12-inch wafers [4] - Capacity utilization exceeded 90% in Q3, up 5 percentage points QoQ [4] - SMIC expects Q4 revenue to grow 0-2% QoQ with gross margin between 18-20% [4] - The company added 20k 12-inch wafer capacity in Q3 and plans to add another 30k in Q4, reaching total capacity of 950k 8-inch equivalent wafers by year-end [4] - CAPEX in Q3 was RMB 8.4 billion, down 48% QoQ, returning to Q1 2023 levels [4] Financial Performance - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 57.5 billion, up 27.1% YoY [5] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company is estimated at RMB 3.8 billion, down 20.2% YoY [5] - 2024E gross margin is forecast at 19.4%, with net margin of 6.7% [5] - ROE is expected to be 2.6% in 2024, improving to 3.9% by 2026 [5][7] - 2024E EPS is projected at RMB 0.48, with P/E of 193x and P/B of 5.11x [4][7] Industry Outlook - China's 12-inch wafer capacity is expected to account for 25% of global capacity by 2026, becoming the world's largest [4] - SMIC is well-positioned to benefit from the localization trend in wafer manufacturing [4] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a moderate recovery, with consumer markets gradually improving [4] Valuation and Projections - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company is projected at RMB 3.8 billion, RMB 4.9 billion, and RMB 6.1 billion respectively [4] - 2024-2026 EPS is estimated at RMB 0.48, RMB 0.61, and RMB 0.77 respectively [4] - 2024-2026 P/E ratios are projected at 193x, 152x, and 122x respectively [4] - 2024-2026 P/B ratios are estimated at 5x, 4.9x, and 4.7x respectively [4]

Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 123.7 CNY/53.5 HKD [1] Core Views - Revenue in Q3 2024 reached a historical high of 15.609 billion CNY, a YoY/QoQ increase of 32.50%/14.14%, in line with previous guidance [1] - Gross margin improved significantly to 23.92%, up 10.27pct QoQ, exceeding the guidance range of 18%-20% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue is expected to grow 2% QoQ, with gross margin projected to be between 18%-20% [1] - Local demand continues to rise, with capacity utilization increasing to 90.4% and product mix optimization driving margin recovery [2] - The semiconductor industry cycle is recovering, with AI innovation driving demand growth, particularly in the AI sector, which is expected to grow over 10% [2] - Domestic substitution is accelerating, benefiting leading domestic foundries like SMIC, which is expanding capacity in 28nm and above processes [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: 15.609 billion CNY, +32.50% YoY, +14.14% QoQ [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin: 23.92%, -0.13pct YoY, +10.27pct QoQ [1] - 2024E revenue: 57.806 billion CNY, +27.7% YoY [6] - 2024E net profit: 3.826 billion CNY, -20.7% YoY [6] - 2025E net profit: 5.495 billion CNY, +43.6% YoY [6] - 2026E net profit: 6.796 billion CNY, +23.7% YoY [6] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue growing, with AI and HPC sectors driving demand [2] - Domestic substitution is accelerating, with SMIC well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its leading technology and capacity expansion [2] Valuation - 2025E PB multiple: 6.5x, target price: 123.7 CNY [2] - 2025E PB multiple for H-shares: 2.6x, target price: 53.5 HKD [2]

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 12 日 公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元） 104.98 总股本/流通股本（亿股）79.75 / 19.88 总市值/流通市值（亿元）8,372 / 2,087 52 周内最高/最低价 104.98 / 40.33 资产负债率(%) 35.5% 市盈率 172.10 第一大股东HKSCC NOMINEES LIMITED 股票投资评级 中芯国际(688981) 买入|维持 个股表现 -31% -19% -7% 5% 17% 29% 41% 53% 65% 77% 89% 2023-11 2024-01 2024-04 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 中芯国际 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 收入创新高 ⚫ 事件 公司 24Q3 销售收入为 21.71 亿美元, 环比增长 14.2%；毛利率 为 20.5%，环比增长 6.6 个百分点；经营利润为 1.70 亿美元；息税折 旧及摊销前利润为 11.57 亿美元； ...

Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was $2.171 billion, a 14.2% increase quarter-over-quarter [2] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 20.5%, up 6.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2] - Q3 2024 operating profit was $170 million [3] - Q3 2024 EBITDA was $1.157 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 53.3% [3] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the company was $149 million [3] - Total assets at the end of Q1 2024 were $47.2 billion, with $12.6 billion in cash [3] - Total liabilities at the end of Q1 2024 were $15.8 billion, including $10.4 billion in interest-bearing debt [3] - Total equity at the end of Q1 2024 was $31.4 billion [3] - Interest-bearing debt to equity ratio was 33.1%, and net debt to equity ratio was -7.1% [3] - Q1 2024 net cash from operating activities was $1.236 billion [3] Capacity and Production - Q3 2024 8-inch wafer revenue share decreased to 21.5%, while 12-inch wafer revenue share increased to 78.5% [4] - Q4 2024 revenue guidance is flat to a 2% increase quarter-over-quarter, with gross margin between 18% and 20% [4] - Full-year 2024 revenue is expected to be around $8 billion, a 27% year-over-year increase [4] - Full-year 2024 gross margin is expected to be around 17% [4] - By the end of 2024, monthly capacity is expected to reach 950,000 8-inch equivalent wafers [4] - Q4 2024 will see the release of approximately 30,000 12-inch wafer monthly capacity [4] Market and Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry's last peak was in Q3 2022, and the current cycle is longer and more moderate [4] - Industry capacity utilization is expected to reach around 85% when fully recovered [5] - Power device capacity is oversupplied, but new requirements in automotive and industrial sectors create opportunities [5] - The company aims to capture about one-third of the power device market transitioning to China [5] - The company's BCD platform has strong demand, driven by AI-related applications [6][7] Strategic Focus - The company is accelerating power device capacity to support automotive, industrial, and new energy markets [4] - The company is focusing on product mix optimization to maintain average selling prices and stabilize gross margins [4] - The company is committed to deepening wafer manufacturing, accelerating platform verification, and maintaining market share [4] - The company is leveraging its comprehensive process capabilities, including backside processing and bonding, to meet new industry demands [5] - The company is expanding its product platforms and capacity to serve a diverse customer base, including CIS, display drivers, MCUs, and low-power applications [6] Competitive Landscape - New project orders have decreased, and capacity growth is expected to slow in the coming year [5] - The company's 28nm, 40nm, and 45nm nodes are operating at full capacity, with plans for medium- and long-term capacity expansion [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from AI-related demand, particularly in mature process nodes [6] - The company's BCD platform has a strong competitive advantage, with a comprehensive quality system and advanced technology [7]

Key Points Industry and Company Involved * **Industry**: Semiconductor industry, specifically focusing on chip manufacturing and related equipment. * **Company**: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) Core Views and Arguments * **US Sanctions Impact**: The US government's sanctions, including tariffs, blacklists, and national security reviews, have significantly impacted Chinese companies' R&D progress, production efficiency, and business operations. The Biden administration further intensified these measures with the Chip Act and Export Control Law, causing major shocks to Chinese chip manufacturing companies like SMIC. * **SMIC's Importance and Growth Potential**: SMIC, as the only Chinese company capable of mass-producing advanced processes, holds unique scarcity and strategic value. Despite valuation disagreements, SMIC still has significant growth potential and its stock price has upward potential. Its third-quarter performance was excellent, with revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time and both capacity utilization and gross margin improving. * **SMIC vs. TSMC Valuation**: There is a significant difference in valuation between SMIC and TSMC. If mature processes are valued at 25x P/E and advanced processes at 50x P/E, SMIC's overall valuation could exceed 1 trillion yuan in the long term. The current stock price still shows room for upside. * **SMIC's Challenges and Opportunities**: SMIC faces challenges and opportunities in the current environment. While there are disagreements about valuation, SMIC still has significant growth potential and its stock price has upward potential. Its third-quarter performance was excellent, with revenue exceeding $2 billion for the first time and both capacity utilization and gross margin improving. SMIC is expected to continue expanding its production capacity, with mature process monthly capacity expected to reach 1.2 million wafers in 2026 and 1.3 million wafers in 2027. * **SMIC's Revenue and Profit Expectations**: SMIC's revenue and profit expectations are positive. In 2026, mature process monthly capacity is expected to reach 1.2 million wafers, with revenue reaching $15.6 billion and net profit reaching $2.3 billion. Advanced process revenue is expected to reach $19 billion in 2026, with net profit reaching $7.6 billion. * **Valuation Differences Between SMIC and TSMC**: The market has disagreements about SMIC's valuation, but overall, it is still lower than TSMC. If mature processes are valued at 25x P/B and advanced processes at 9x P/B, SMIC's overall valuation could exceed 1 trillion yuan in the long term. The current stock price still shows room for upside. * **Key Companies in the Lithography Equipment Field**: Companies such as Stock Holding Technology, Tengjing Technology, and Maolan Optics are worth paying attention to in the lithography equipment field. These companies focus on core components such as light sources, objectives, and workbenches, which are important links in the technology iteration of lithography machines. * **Impact of US-China Technology Conflict**: The US-China technology conflict is likely to intensify, and specific details will be determined by US legal terms. In this context, China's trend of independent and controllable technology development is promising, including SMIC and its related equipment components. This round of independent and controllable stock market sentiment, combined with the bull market, is expected to drive SMIC's market value to exceed 1 trillion yuan. * **Key Points for Investors**: Investors should pay attention to the following aspects: the trend of independent and controllable technology in the semiconductor industry, the development dynamics and financial performance of key companies such as SMIC, the development of key component suppliers in the lithography equipment field such as Stock Holding Technology, Tengjing Technology, and Maolan Optics, the valuation differences between different companies, and the risks and opportunities brought by potential policy changes.

浦银国际 公司研究 中芯国际 （981.HK/688981.CH） 美元百万 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入 7,273 6,322 8,020 9,724 10,411 营收同比增速 34% (13%) 27% 21% 7% 毛利率 38.0% 19.3% 17.1% 20.2% 28.0% 净利润 1,818 903 583 923 1,810 净利润增速 7% (50%) (35%) 58% 96% 基本每股收益（美元） 0.23 0.11 0.07 0.12 0.23 港股 EV/EBITDA 12.5 14.9 14.7 12.8 11.8 A 股 EV/EBITDA 12.5 14.9 14.7 12.8 11.8 E=浦银国际预测 资料来源：公司公告、浦银国际 浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 半导体行业 中芯国际（981.HK/688981.CH）：三季度 毛利率超市场预期 维持中芯国际的"买入"评级，上调港股目标价至 32.6 港元，潜在 升幅 15%，上调 A 股目标价至人民币 117.0 元，潜在升幅 15%。 维持中芯国际"买入"评级：中芯国际处于半导体基本 ...