Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjustment to HKD 49.7 for the Hong Kong stock and RMB 99.4 for the A-share, indicating potential upside of 15.6% and 15.8% respectively [1][4][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing full capacity utilization, with a rebound in automotive demand. Despite a temporary impact on revenue and gross margin due to one-time maintenance in Q1, this effect is expected to dissipate by the second half of Q3. The company is well-positioned to benefit from growth opportunities in automotive products such as BCD, CIS, and MCU [6][8]. - The company reported Q1 revenue of USD 2.25 billion, a 28% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of USD 188 million, reflecting a 162% increase compared to the same period last year [8][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from USD 6.32 billion in 2023 to USD 11.77 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17% [2][7]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 19.3% in 2023 to 25.6% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][10]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from USD 903 million in 2023 to USD 1.50 billion in 2027, with significant growth rates in the coming years [2][10]. Performance Metrics - The company’s Q1 2025 performance showed a gross margin of 22.5%, up from 13.7% in Q1 2024, and a net profit margin of 8.4% [8][9]. - The report indicates that the company’s EV/EBITDA for 2025 is projected at 14.1x, suggesting room for valuation upside [6][11]. Market Context - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a rebound in demand, particularly in the automotive sector, which is expected to drive growth for the company [6][8]. - The company is considered one of the key beneficiaries in the localized demand upcycle for semiconductor foundries in China [6][10].

Market Overview - Southbound funds recorded a net sell of HKD 18.528 billion in Hong Kong stocks on May 12, marking the highest single-day net sell since February 24, 2021, and the second-largest in history [1] - The net sell of Tencent Holdings reached HKD 36.65 billion, while Xiaomi Group saw a net sell of HKD 21.16 billion [2] Company-Specific Insights - BYD Electronics experienced a net buy of HKD 121 million, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation had a net buy of HKD 113 million [2] - Tencent Holdings is expected to report a steady first-quarter performance with a projected revenue growth of 10% year-on-year to HKD 175.3 billion, driven by growth in gaming and advertising sectors [5] - Xiaomi Group faced challenges with its SU7 Ultra model, leading to a wave of returns due to issues with the carbon fiber hood not enhancing performance as claimed [6] - XPeng Motors announced a significant milestone with its flying car division, XPeng Huitian, as it received acceptance for its production license application from the Civil Aviation Administration [6] Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on high-growth and high-dividend companies in the oil sector, particularly the "three barrels of oil," due to favorable market conditions and potential tax reforms in refined oil consumption [5] - The overall sentiment in the consumer electronics sector is improving, with expectations of valuation recovery if tariff policies do not deteriorate further [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for China Resources Microelectronics (CR Micro) with a price target of Rmb40.00 for December 2026, based on a 26x one-year forward P/E ratio [1][12][28]. Core Insights - CR Micro reported 1Q25 sales of Rmb2.4 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, while net profit surged by 151% year-over-year to Rmb83 million. However, gross margin declined due to increased depreciation from capacity release [1][12]. - The company is expected to experience a sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% and an earnings CAGR of 39% from 2025 to 2027, despite near-term profit pressures from joint venture (JV) losses in Shenzhen and Chongqing [1][12][27]. - The product segment is anticipated to outpace the service segment in long-term growth, with a projected 18% sales CAGR for products and 10% for services during 2025-2027 [7][12]. Financial Summary - For FY25, revenue is estimated at Rmb11,331 million, with a projected increase to Rmb12,983 million in FY26 and Rmb14,936 million in FY27 [11][20]. - The adjusted net income for FY25 is forecasted at Rmb858 million, increasing to Rmb1,421 million in FY26 and Rmb2,035 million in FY27 [11][20]. - The report indicates a decline in gross profit margin (GPM) from 27.2% in FY24 to 26.5% in FY25, with expectations of recovery to 28.4% by FY26 [20][31]. Market Position and Performance - CR Micro has underperformed the A-share Semiconductor Index by 5% year-to-date and is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 45x for FY26, which is 30% higher than its peers [7][12]. - The company is recognized as a leading power semiconductor supplier in China, with growth driven by an expanding product portfolio and market share gains [12][27]. Key Changes in Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY25 have been slightly revised down from Rmb11,382 million to Rmb11,331 million, while FY26 estimates have been adjusted from Rmb13,019 million to Rmb12,983 million [2][20]. - Adjusted earnings estimates for FY25 have been reduced by 40% to Rmb858 million, reflecting higher-than-expected investment losses from JV fabs [7][12]. Quarterly Forecasts - The quarterly revenue forecast for 1Q25 is Rmb2,355 million, with expectations of Rmb2,803 million in 2Q25, Rmb3,053 million in 3Q25, and Rmb3,120 million in 4Q25 [3][31]. Valuation - The price target of Rmb40.00 reflects a cautious outlook, considering sector-wide headwinds and is positioned at the trough level of historical valuation [12][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the target price for SMIC has been lowered by 6.25% from HKD 48 to HKD 45 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The company’s stock price performance in the previous quarter met expectations, indicating potential volatility influenced by market sentiment [1] - The report emphasizes SMIC's leading position in the domestic semiconductor industry, suggesting that the stock price may fluctuate around the revised target price as the market returns to fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025 have been revised down to USD 8.95 billion and 20.8% respectively, from previous estimates of USD 9.41 billion and 20.9% [1]

Summary of SMIC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry Key Financial Performance - **Q1 2025 Revenue**: $2.247 billion, a 1.8% increase quarter-over-quarter [2][4][27] - **Wafer Revenue Contribution**: 95.2% of total revenue, with a nearly 5% increase year-over-year [2][4] - **Gross Margin**: 22.5%, stable compared to the previous quarter [2][9][42] - **Production Volume**: 2.29 million wafers (equivalent to 8-inch), a 15% increase quarter-over-quarter [2][4][35] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: 89.6%, up 4.1 percentage points [2][9][42] - **Expected Q2 2025 Revenue Decline**: Anticipated to decrease by 4% to 6% [10][30][43] Revenue Breakdown - **Regional Revenue Distribution**: China (84%), USA (13%), Eurasia (3%) [5][38] - **Application Revenue Distribution**: Smartphones (24%), PCs and tablets (17%), Consumer electronics (41%), Wearable devices (8%) [6][38] - **Industrial and Automotive Revenue Growth**: Over 20% quarter-over-quarter, increasing its share from 8% to 10% [6][39] Market Dynamics - **Impact of International Conditions**: Revenue growth driven by geopolitical changes and domestic policies promoting consumer demand [2][4][5] - **Automotive Electronics Growth**: Steady increase in automotive product shipments due to major client advancements and prior investments [2][39] - **Technology Platform Development**: Continuous upgrades in process technology and product performance to meet market demands [7][40][41] Challenges and Outlook - **Q2 Challenges**: Anticipated decline in average selling price (ASP) due to production fluctuations and maintenance issues [10][17][43] - **Market Stability**: Despite new factors, the overall market conditions remain stable compared to Q1 [11][12][44] - **Tariff Policy Impact**: Minimal direct impact from new tariffs on the semiconductor foundry industry, with expected stability in orders [15][51] Future Strategies - **Focus on Core Business**: Enhancing adaptability and risk resilience while concentrating on core operations and immediate goals [3][50] - **Capacity Expansion Plans**: Continuing to expand capacity at a steady pace, with a focus on mature process nodes (28nm and 40/45nm) [22][57] - **R&D Investment**: Historically allocating 8% to 10% of revenue to R&D, with a temporary decline in Q1 due to production demands [19][54] Additional Insights - **Free Cash Flow**: Currently negative, with a focus on prioritizing investments in capacity and R&D [32][33] - **Customer Collaboration**: Emphasis on working closely with clients to ensure competitive pricing and quality [18][50] - **Market Demand Adjustments**: Anticipated corrections in inventory and demand assessments in Q3 and Q4 [16][52][61] This summary encapsulates the key points from the SMIC conference call, highlighting financial performance, market dynamics, challenges, and future strategies.

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor foundry company SMIC reported strong growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching approximately 16.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 30%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.356 billion yuan, up over 1.6 times [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, SMIC achieved revenue of 16.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.44%, and a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, reflecting a 166.50% increase compared to the previous year [3] - The revenue and net profit for Q4 2024 were 15.917 billion yuan and 0.992 billion yuan, showing year-on-year changes of 30.98% and -13.55% respectively [3] - Despite the strong growth, Q1 performance was below expectations due to unexpected production issues affecting product quality and yield [5][6] Group 2: Operational Insights - The growth in performance was attributed to changes in international circumstances leading to increased customer orders, domestic consumption subsidies, and replenishment in the industrial and automotive sectors [5][10] - A sudden incident during annual maintenance affected product precision and yield, with expected impacts lasting four to five months [5][7] - The overall capacity utilization rate increased by 4.1 percentage points in Q1, with both 12-inch and 8-inch production capacities being utilized more effectively [5] Group 3: Research and Development - R&D expenditure decreased from 217 million USD in Q4 2024 to 149 million USD in Q1 2025, but the company plans to restore R&D investment as production capacity continues to expand [8] - SMIC has consistently invested over 4 billion yuan annually in R&D from 2018 to 2023, with a projected increase to 5.447 billion yuan in 2024, representing 9.4% of revenue [8][9] Group 4: Market Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for the second half of the year and next year, expecting sales to remain unaffected despite external uncertainties [10] - SMIC will not engage in price reductions to secure orders, although there is a noted downward trend in industry pricing [9][10]

2025 年 05 月 11 日 中芯国际 (688981) ——一季度产能饱满，短期生产波动不改长期自主可控趋 势 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） 市场数据： 2025 年 05 月 09 日 | 收盘价（元） | 85.83 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 109.50/41.00 | | 市净率 | 4.6 | | 息率（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 170,661 | | 3,342.00/10,126.83 上证指数/深证成指 | | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 18.73 | | 资产负债率% | 32.81 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 7,986/1,988 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/5,997 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 05-09 06-09 07-09 08-09 09-09 10-09 11-09 12-09 01-09 02-09 03-09 ...

2025 年 5 月 11 日 公司研究 1Q 突发生产问题，2Q 业绩有望筑底，自主可控趋势不改 ——中芯国际（0981.HK+688981.SH）2025 年一季度业绩点评 要点 事件：生产问题导致25Q1营收和25Q2指引不及预期，25Q1毛利率超预期。 1Q25收入22.47亿美元，同比增长28.4%，环比增长1.8%，低于此前公司环 比增长6%~8%的指引区间，且低于23.57亿美元的市场预期。其中晶圆出货 量环比上升15%，受益于国际形势变化引起的客户拉货、国内政策推动的大 宗类产品需求的上升和产业链再分配；晶圆ASP环比下降9%，系1Q突发生产 问题，出现一次性维修费用，且部分设备量产的晶圆良率不达标、导致晶圆 ASP下滑。1Q25毛利率22.5%，同比增长8.8pct，环比下降0.1pct，超过此 前公司18~20%指引区间的上限，超过20.7%的市场预期。1Q25净利润3.23 亿美元，其中归母净利润1.88亿美元，同比上升161.9%，环比增长74.8%； Q1非控制性权益实现1.35亿美元，环比降低17%。2Q25指引营收和毛利率 环比下滑、低于市场预期。2Q25指引收入环比下降4%~6 ...

2025 年 5 月 11 日 公司研究 1Q 突发生产问题，2Q 业绩有望筑底，自主可控趋势不改 ——中芯国际（0981.HK+688981.SH）2025 年一季度业绩点评 要点 事件：生产问题导致25Q1营收和25Q2指引不及预期，25Q1毛利率超预期。 1Q25收入22.47亿美元，同比增长28.4%，环比增长1.8%，低于此前公司环 比增长6%~8%的指引区间，且低于23.57亿美元的市场预期。其中晶圆出货 量环比上升15%，受益于国际形势变化引起的客户拉货、国内政策推动的大 宗类产品需求的上升和产业链再分配；晶圆ASP环比下降9%，系1Q突发生产 问题，出现一次性维修费用，且部分设备量产的晶圆良率不达标、导致晶圆 ASP下滑。1Q25毛利率22.5%，同比增长8.8pct，环比下降0.1pct，超过此 前公司18~20%指引区间的上限，超过20.7%的市场预期。1Q25净利润3.23 亿美元，其中归母净利润1.88亿美元，同比上升161.9%，环比增长74.8%； Q1非控制性权益实现1.35亿美元，环比降低17%。2Q25指引营收和毛利率 环比下滑、低于市场预期。2Q25指引收入环比下降4%~6 ...

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp's Earnings Are Disappointing! Where Is the Future of "Domestic Chips"? 宝子们，今天来聊聊芯片界的大事 中芯国际发布 2025 年第一季度财报后，直接在投资圈引起了不小的震动！这次财报和下季度指引有点让人 "心塞"，但也 让大家更关注 "国产芯" 的发展啦，快来一起看看～ 财报解读：收入和指引都不太妙 Financial Report Analysis: Both Revenue and Guidance Are Disappointing 中芯国际第一季度收入 22.47 亿美元，虽然环比有一丢丢增长，可没达到之前预计的区间，也比市场预期的少。不过毛利率倒是还不错，比预计的高，这主 要是因为 8 寸晶圆提前备货，出货量增加，成本被摊薄了。但产品均价下降了，主要是 8 寸晶圆出货占比提升，拉低了整体均价。 Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)'s revenue in the f ...