Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the real estate market, highlighting the significant debut of commercial real estate REITs, with the first batch of applications exceeding 32.1 billion RMB, accounting for 14% of the existing C-REITs market [5] - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy marks a pivotal shift, indicating a return to orderly market development and improved financing channels for real estate companies [16][20] - The report notes a strong year-on-year increase in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with new home transactions in 50 cities up 3.3% week-on-week and 37.2% year-on-year [5][9] Group 1: Central Policies - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy allows for a more market-oriented development of the real estate sector, which had previously constrained financing for weaker firms [16] - The central government is actively managing expectations and stabilizing the policy environment to facilitate a turning point in the real estate cycle [16] Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions saw a week-on-week increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, reflecting a recovery from last year's low base due to the Spring Festival [5][9] - Second-hand home transactions also showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 154.9%, driven by a favorable comparison to last year's figures [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new home supply has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 34.5%, which is unusual before the Spring Festival, suggesting increased developer confidence [5] - The second-hand market remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in visits and transactions, indicating sustained demand [5] Group 4: Land Market Performance - The land market showed weaker performance, with total land sales in 300 cities amounting to 12.7 billion RMB, down 20% week-on-week and 69% year-on-year [5] - The report highlights a supply of 7.93 million square meters, with a land absorption rate of 51%, indicating a dual weakness in supply and demand [5] Group 5: Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with strong investment fundamentals and low valuations, such as China Jinmao and China Overseas, are leading the sector [5] - The property management sector also performed well, with a 2.6% increase, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [5] Group 6: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs composite return index rose by 0.36%, with 41 out of 78 REITs showing gains, particularly in the renewable energy and highway sectors [5]

【内容摘要】 1月30日，资金面整体均衡平稳；债市偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体下跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经 济体10年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》】2月1日出版的第3期《求是》杂志发表国家主席习近平的重要 文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，建设金融强国，必须加快构建中国特色现代金融体系。一是科学稳健的金融调控体系，二 是结构合理的金融市场体系，三是分工协作的金融机构体系，四是完备有效的金融监管体系，五是多样化专业性的金融产品和服务体系，六是自主可控、安 全高效的金融基础设施体系。 【2025年证券交易印花税同比增长57.8%】1月30日，财政部召开2025年度财政收支情况新闻发布会，介绍了全年财政收支情况。数据显示，2025年，全国 一般公共预算收入216045亿元，比2024年（下同）下降1.7%。其中，全国税收收入176363亿元，增长0.8%；非税收入39682亿元，下降11.3%，主要是2024 年一次性安排中央单位上缴专项收益抬高基数。分 ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically the performance of major property developers in January 2026 and expectations for the first quarter of 2026 [1][2]. Key Points Sales Performance - Contracted sales for the 25 major developers tracked fell **32% year-on-year (y-y)** in January 2026, despite a low base due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) calendar effect [1][2]. - The top 50 and top 100 developers experienced declines of **26% and 29% y-y**, respectively, in January, compared to **-22% and -29%** in December [2]. Divergence in Developer Performance - State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) outperformed other developers with milder declines. Notable performers included: - **China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI)**: +20% y-y - **Jinmao**: +14% y-y - **CR Land**: +0.4% y-y - Conversely, developers like **Sunac**, **Shimao**, **CIFI**, **Midea RE**, and **GZ R&F** reported declines exceeding **50% y-y** [3]. Market Outlook - The physical property market is expected to continue its downtrend in 2026-27, with projected declines of **8% and 6% y-y** in secondary home prices [4]. - A meaningful nationwide housing policy is anticipated to remain muted in the coming months, contributing to fragile buyer sentiment and increased inventory [4]. Investment Sentiment - Recent sentiment-driven outperformance in the China property industry is viewed as unsustainable, with expectations of a sector pullback as results season approaches [5]. - The focus remains on quality names with credible self-help stories, such as: - **CR Land (1109.HK)** - **Seazen (601155.SS)** - **C&D International (1908.HK)**, which is seen as a consolidator in the residential market with optimized landbanks [6]. Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that home prices in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities could stabilize in the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [4]. - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations of continued challenges for developers, particularly those with weaker brand recognition and fewer saleable resources [5][6].

Summary of China Property Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property Sector - **Key Focus**: Market expectations, policy changes, sales performance, and investment opportunities Core Insights 1. **Investor Positioning**: Many investors in Hong Kong, Singapore, and overseas have been underweight in the China property sector, while sectors like metals, mining, tech, and healthcare are well-owned. There is a shift towards increasing exposure in the property sector due to fear of missing out on potential recovery [1][2] 2. **Sales and Investment Trends**: Secondary sales improved in January, with a month-on-month increase compared to December. However, new home sales remain weak, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 30% expected to persist into Q1 2026 due to last year's high base [2][4] 3. **Policy Easing Expectations**: Positive market sentiment in January was driven by expectations of policy easing, including VAT cuts and adjustments to down payment requirements for commercial properties. The easing of the "three red lines" policy indicates that deleveraging targets may have been met [2][15] 4. **Opportunistic Window**: There is a belief that an opportunistic window may exist from January to March before the National People's Congress meeting and FY25 earnings reports, suggesting potential for strategic investments during this period [2] 5. **Stock Picks**: Recommended stocks include China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI), Jinmao, and Greentown, which are expected to benefit from land acquisition growth and ample saleable resources in 2026. CR Land is noted for its strong fundamentals but is already well-owned [3] 6. **Secondary Market Activity**: Secondary transaction volumes improved to approximately 26,038 units in the week ending January 25, 2026, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase. This is seen as a positive sign for market confidence [3][9] 7. **New Home Sales Performance**: New home sales increased by 15% week-on-week but are still down approximately 30% year-on-year. The primary sales trend remains uncertain and is not yet sustainable [4][11] 8. **Land Acquisition Trends**: Significant increases in land acquisition costs were noted for several companies, with Jinmao seeing a 78% increase year-on-year. In contrast, Vanke and Longfor reported substantial declines in land acquisition values [17] Additional Important Points - **Policy Support**: Recent supportive policies include lowering the minimum down payment for commercial property mortgages and extending tax refund policies for home buyers [15][16] - **Market Sentiment**: The market's positive response to policy changes indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards the property sector, despite ongoing challenges in new home sales [2][4] - **Valuation Insights**: The sector's valuations are being closely monitored, with recommendations varying from buy to neutral based on individual company fundamentals [20] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the China property sector, highlighting both opportunities and ongoing challenges.

| 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 东的净利润 | 亏损:约 8,200,000 万元 | 亏损:4,947,842.92 万元 | | 扣除非经常性损益 后的净利润 | 亏损:约 8.000.000 万元 | 亏损:4,539,371.93 万元 | | 基本每股收益 | 亏损:约6.89元/股 | 亏损:4.17 元/股 | 公告披露了亏损原因如下： 文/梧桐小编 1月31日，万科企业股份有限公司发布《2025年度业绩预告》：2025年归母净利润亏损约820亿元。而2024年亏损494.78亿 元，两年合计亏损1314.78亿元。 （三）部分经营性业务扣除折旧摊销后整体亏损，以及部分非主业财务投资亏损。 （四）部分大宗资产交易和股权交易价格低于账面值。 公告披露：报告期内，公司保质交付 11.7 万套房子，经营服务业务营收保持稳健；积极推动开发业务的各项降本增效工作， 如管理费用管控和优化等，实现了开发业务管理费用连续两年下降。但当前公司发展依然面临严峻挑战，经营业绩也将持续 承压。面向未来，公司将全力以赴推进经营改善，通过战略聚焦、规范 ...

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 昨夜今晨 【特朗普称希望与伊朗达成协议】 据央视新闻，当地时间2月1日，美国总统特朗普在海湖庄园回答记者有关伊朗问题时表示，希望能够达成协 议。 当天早些时候，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗对与美国就核问题达成协议仍然有信心。他说，通过地区友好国 家进行的信息沟通正在推动双方接触，并称相关谈判是富有成效的。 阿拉格齐重申，伊朗希望美方解除长期制裁，同时尊重伊朗在和平利用核能框架下继续进行铀浓缩的权利。 【马斯克大动作！SpaceX上市最新消息】 据央视财经援引路透社报道，美国太空探索技术公司也就是SpaceX，于本周五向美国联邦通信委员会提交申 请，计划发射多达100万颗卫星，以打造"轨道数据中心"。与此同时，近期频繁传出消息称SpaceX公司正考虑 IPO。外界猜测，通过此举，SpaceX的在轨数据中心将为xAI输送庞大算力。市场正密切关注企业家马斯克推 进太空算力布局的最新动态。 彭博社也曾披露，SpaceX或将与特斯拉公司合并的消息。这一路径的设想是，特斯拉制造储能系统的能力可 帮助SpaceX在太空利用太阳能运行这些数 ...

房地产行业深度调整的背景下，万科2025年的经营基本面承受着前所未有的压力。 1月30日，万科发布2025年度业绩预告，公司预计归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约820亿元，较上年 494.78亿元的亏损额进一步扩大；预计扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损约800亿元。 万科在公告中披露，此次业绩亏损主要源于四大方面。其一，房地产开发项目结算规模显著下降且毛利 率持续低位。2025年公司开发业务结算利润主要对应2023—2024年销售项目及现房、准现房库存消化， 而这些项目均面临地价获取成本较高的问题，直接导致结算毛利总额大幅缩水，成为拖累业绩的主因。 其二，业务风险敞口上升倒逼公司新增计提信用减值和资产减值，进一步侵蚀利润。其三，部分经营性 业务扣除折旧摊销后陷入整体亏损，同时非主业财务投资也未能实现盈利，多元化布局的短期效益尚未 显现。其四，行业调整周期下，部分大宗资产交易和股权交易价格低于账面值，形成资产处置损失。 尽管业绩大幅亏损，但万科在保交付、降本增效和多元化业务布局上仍取得阶段性成果。2025年公司全 年保质交付房屋11.7万套，其中1.6万套提前30天交付、约5000套实现跨年提前交付，济南、郑州、南昌 等 ...

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

Core Viewpoint - The disclosure of annual performance forecasts for A-shares in 2025 has concluded, with approximately 3,000 listed companies providing important references for market performance predictions [2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - A total of 2,956 companies in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 705 companies expecting profit increases, 420 companies expecting profit decreases, 987 companies continuing to incur losses, and 374 companies anticipating a turnaround to profitability [2]. - Ningbo Fubang (SH600768) is expected to see a net profit increase of over 30 times, leading the profit growth forecast, while Vanke A (SZ000002) is projected to incur a loss of 82 billion yuan, making it the "loss leader" [2]. - Guangdong Mingzhu (SH600382) and Sainuo Medical (SH688108) also expect significant net profit increases, with growth rates of 2,908.49% to 3,577.04% and 2,767% to 3,233%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Major Profit Increases - Ningbo Fubang's net profit is forecasted to increase by 3,099.59% to 4,379.43%, with an expected net profit of 50 million to 70 million yuan, primarily due to non-recurring gains from the sale of equity [2]. - Guangdong Mingzhu anticipates a net profit of approximately 166 million to 203 million yuan, driven by improved performance from its subsidiary and non-operating gains [3]. - Sainuo Medical expects a net profit of about 43 million to 50 million yuan, attributing the increase to revenue growth and reduced asset impairment losses [3]. Group 3: Major Profit Decreases - Heli Tai (SZ002217) is projected to experience the largest decrease in net profit, with an expected decline of 97.83% to 98.55%, resulting in a net profit of 22 million to 33 million yuan [4]. - The decline is attributed to the absence of non-recurring gains from debt restructuring in the previous year and a strategic shift in focus to general display and electronic paper businesses [4]. - Changhong High-Tech (SH605008) and Yuancheng Co. (SZ002692) also expect significant profit declines of 97.88% to 98.41% and 96.8%, respectively, due to market conditions and production adjustments [6]. Group 4: Significant Losses - Vanke A is expected to report a net loss of 82 billion yuan, an increase from a loss of approximately 49.48 billion yuan in the previous year, primarily due to a significant decrease in project settlement scale and low profit margins [7]. - Other real estate companies, such as Huaxia Happiness (SH600340) and Greenland Holdings (SH600606), are also projected to incur substantial losses of 16 billion to 24 billion yuan and 16 billion to 19 billion yuan, respectively [7]. - Companies outside the real estate sector, like Zhifei Biological (SZ300122), are also expected to report significant losses, with forecasts ranging from -10.698 billion to -13.726 billion yuan due to decreased vaccination demand [8]. Group 5: Performance Against Expectations - Among the 2,956 A-share companies that disclosed forecasts, 147 companies exceeded institutional consensus estimates, including Zijin Mining (SH601899) and Industrial Fulian (SH601138), with net profit forecasts significantly higher than expected [9]. - Conversely, 858 companies' forecasts fell short of institutional expectations, with notable examples including Muyuan Foods (SZ002714) and Shenghong Technology (SZ300476), which both reported lower-than-expected net profit forecasts [12].

每经记者｜蔡鼎 每经编辑｜董兴生 A股2025年年度业绩预告披露正式收官。 Wind金融终端数据显示，截至1月31日，除70多家已披露年报的公司外，A股市场已有约3000家上市公司对外披露了2025年度业绩预告，覆盖范围广泛，为 市场判断全年业绩走势提供了重要参考。 具体来看，沪深北三市共有2956家公司披露了2025年度业绩预告。其中，有705家公司业绩预增、420家公司业绩预减、987家公司续亏，另有374家公司预计 扭亏为盈。 总的来看，剔除扭亏为盈的上市公司后，宁波富邦（SH600768）同比预增超30倍居首，万科A（SZ000002）预计亏损820亿元，成"亏损王"。 剔除扭亏为盈的上市公司后，宁波富邦以3099.59%~4379.43%的归母净利润增幅位居榜首，成为业绩预告中的黑马。公告显示，宁波富邦预计2025年实现归 母净利润5000万元~7000万元。不过，据公司公告，其归母净利润大增系非经常性损益较上年同期大幅增长所致，主要原因为公司将持有的宁波中华纸业有 限公司2.5%股权以3.7亿元的价格转让给金光纸业（中国）投资有限公司，导致公司所持的宁波中华纸业有限公司2.5%股权公允价值变动产生 ...