｜2025年12月15日星期一｜ NO.1 万科20亿元债券展期方案未获有效通过 12月14日，中国银行间市场交易商协会系统披露，"22万科MTN004"首次持有人会议表决结果显示，三 份议案均未获90%以上赞成而失效。据悉，该笔中票本金兑付日为2025年12月15日，债券余额20亿元， 年利率3%。截至债权登记日2025年12月9日，持有人或持有人的代理人共计20家机构，参加会议的持有 人或持有人代理人18家。 点评：此次展期议案未通过引发了市场对房企债务处置难度的再认知。对万科自身而言，若宽限期内无 法达成共识，将面临实质性违约，还可能影响其后续融资能力。 NO.2 保利发展拟发行50亿元可转债用于9个房产项目 日前，保利发展发布2025年度向特定对象发行可转换公司债券预案。预案显示，保利发展计划发行总额 不超过50亿元（含本数），发行数量不超过5000万张，票面利率将通过竞价方式确定。募集资金将用于 杭州保利天奕、石家庄保利裕华天珺、广州保利辰园湖境等9个房地产开发项目，总投资额为222.21亿 元，其中募集资金拟投入金额为50亿元。 点评：此次融资动作，既体现出企业通过市场化融资工具保障项目推进的思路 ...

在融资方面，利好政策更是层出不穷。2025年2月，国家金融监督管理总局明确表示，房地产"白名单"项目的贷款金额已经达到5.6万亿元，并且后续还在持 续扩围，确保符合规定的项目能够"应进尽进"。同年5月，金融监管总局又推出了八项增量政策，其中包括修订并购贷款管理办法、扩大保险资金投资试点 以及将保障性住房再贷款利率下调至1.5%等，这些举措进一步降低了房地产企业的融资成本。到了11月，全国"白名单"项目的贷款审批金额已经超过7万亿 元，为房地产企业的项目建设和债务偿还提供了强有力的资金支持。万科作为一家优质的房地产企业，不仅能够享受到"白名单"的融资便利，其大股东深铁 集团的国有企业背景更是政策鼓励"国资支持优质房企"的直接体现。 然而，万科的"刚兑"之所以被称作"历史性"，也正因为当前房地产行业的整体债务压力依然巨大。数据显示，2025年房地产企业全年到期债务高达5342亿 元，较2024年增加了513亿元，其中第三季度更是迎来了1600亿元的到期高峰。尽管房地产行业的违约情况有所好转——2025年第三季度境内债券的实质性 违约仅有2只，涉及金额38.35亿元，但中小房地产企业资金链紧张、融资困难的问题仍然没 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The central economic work conference's statements regarding real estate provide important clues for understanding next year's industry policies. The policy goals continue to focus on risk prevention and market stabilization, with the potential for policy windows to open as thresholds approach. Inventory reduction may involve traditional demand support measures and tools like old renovation or storage. Supply optimization aims to enhance the quality of new residential buildings. The reform of the housing provident fund system may involve higher-level considerations beyond basic aspects like withdrawal, limits, and interest rates [2][8] - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased. The probability of easing industrial policies is gradually rising, and the pace of implementation is merely a timing issue. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The current stock prices of quality real estate companies are not far from their bottom, providing room for rebound as market valuations rise. Emphasis should be placed on quality real estate firms with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [4][8] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.55%, with an excess return of -2.47% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the real estate index has increased by 3.87%, with an excess return of -12.55% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 27th out of 32 [5][14] - The performance of the real estate sector was poor this week, primarily driven by declines in development-related stocks, while property management and rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference emphasized city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, optimize supply, and deepen the housing provident fund system reform. It aims to stabilize the real estate market and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [6][16] - Local policies include Shenzhen's optimization of housing provident fund withdrawal regulations, allowing full withdrawals for families with one property and 60% for those with two. Shandong has introduced a housing "old-for-new" program, including three models: selling old for new, exchanging old for new, and demolishing old for new [6][16] Sales Data - This week, the sample cities' new housing transaction area saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 45.6%, while second-hand housing transactions dropped by 28.6%. Year-to-date, new housing transaction area has decreased by 15.8%, while second-hand housing has increased by 4.2% [7][17] - As of December 12, the new housing transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 41.7%, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 36.3% [7][17]

财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安12月12日主持召开党组会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，研究财政 部门贯彻落实工作。会议指出，按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效 能。财政部门要准确把握明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支 出总量，提高政策精准性和有效性。用好用足各类政府债券资金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两 重"建设、"两新"工作。 本周末影响市场的重要资讯有：三部门发文更大力度提振消费；摩尔线程回应拿75亿募投资金理财；万 科20亿债券展期三项议案，均未能获得通过；茅台经销渠道年内计划外配额停发，明年非标产品减量； 史上最大IPO来袭，马斯克或成首位万亿美元富翁；特朗普"点名"美联储新主席人选；芯原股份终止购 买芯来智融97%股权；知情人士回应豆包手机被曝被约谈消息不实；英伟达将于下周举办一场闭门峰 会，旨在破解AI时代日益严峻的电力短缺困局等。 【宏观及市场要闻】 三部门发文：更大力度提振消费 党中央、国务院高度重视提振消费，近日召开的中央经济工作会议明确 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Vanke Co., the last major developer in China to avoid default, faces significant challenges as creditors rejected its proposal to delay a bond payment, highlighting the ongoing real estate debt crisis in the country [1][3]. Company Summary - Vanke failed to secure the necessary support for its plan to delay a 2 billion yuan bond payment due on December 15, with all proposals falling short of the required 90% approval [2]. - The company must find funds to pay the bond by the end of Monday or within a five-business-day grace period, or risk default [4]. - Vanke has historically relied on support from its largest shareholder, state-owned Shenzhen Metro Group, which provided over 30 billion yuan in shareholder loans [5][6]. - Recent scrutiny of Shenzhen Metro's borrowing terms has led to a decline in Vanke's securities, raising concerns about its financial stability [6]. Industry Summary - The ongoing real estate debt crisis in China has persisted for five years, resulting in record defaults and restructurings among major property developers like Country Garden and Evergrande [3]. - Policymakers have pledged to stabilize the housing market but have not implemented measures deemed necessary by some economists to revive the sector [3]. - Market analysts suggest that a full-scale debt restructuring for Vanke is likely, as temporary extensions would not resolve the underlying financial issues [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major real estate companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is entering a "quality era," with a recovery in the opening sales rate, which is a key indicator of market sentiment and profitability trends [2][11]. - The opening sales rate in key cities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 56%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, and a 16 percentage point increase from Q3 2024 [2][26]. - The report highlights that the improvement in sales rates is driven by enhanced product quality and design, with average renovation costs in nine cities rising by 7% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Finding the Turning Point in the New Housing Market - The opening sales rate is identified as the most effective indicator for gauging market sentiment and predicting profitability trends [2][11]. - Historical data shows that the opening sales rate can effectively signal the start of a market rally [2][15]. 2. "Good Houses" Driving Sales Rate Improvement - The overall sales rate has shown a stable upward trend, with key cities experiencing a recovery from a low of 41% in Q3 2024 to 56% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the improvement in sales rates reflects genuine sales recovery rather than structural issues [2][26]. 3. City and Sector Analysis - There are significant differences in sales rates across different cities, with top-tier companies showing clear operational advantages [2][26]. - The report categorizes cities into three tiers based on their sales performance, indicating a narrowing range of high sales rate cities over the past decade [2][26]. 4. Performance and Characteristics of Real Estate Companies - Most major real estate companies have improved their sales rates in 2025, with leading firms like Poly, Jinmao, and China Overseas Development showing notable increases [2][26]. - The report suggests that companies with high land acquisition scores and strong sales performance are likely to perform well in 2026 [2][26]. 5. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major companies, including Vanke, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, all rated as "Buy" with projected reasonable values indicating potential upside [3].

这笔债券还有五个工作日的宽限期，若在宽限期内未能与债权人达成共识，万科将构成实质性违约 文｜《财经》研究员 王文彤 编辑｜杨立赟 12月14日，根据中国银行间市场交易商协会存续期服务系统信息，万科的境内债"22万科MTN004"第一 次持有人会议结果已公布，关于这笔债券的三项展期议案皆未通过。 "22万科MTN004"是万科在2022年12月发行的中期票据，主承销商为浦发银行、中国银行，期限为三 年。该笔中票余额为20亿元，票面利率为3%。 该笔中期票据原定兑付日为12月15日。根据募集说明书条款，若万科未能按时偿付，可进入五个工作日 的宽限期，但仍需按票面利率上浮5个基点的标准支付利息；若五天内未能偿付，则视为违约，后续需 要与债权人进一步协商处置。 根据"22万科MTN004"债券募集说明书，议案要通过，需超过总表决权数额90%的持有人同意。 截至债权登记日12月9日，持有人或持有人的代理人共计20家机构，其中参加本次展期会议的持有人或 持有人代理人有18家，参加会议的有效表决权数额为1989万，占总表决权的99.45%。 三份议案中，议案一被视为对万科最有利，但无人投票同意；议案二获得同意票数最多，占总 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 防观/行业 相关研究 证券分析师 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 经济工作会议定调,着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 － 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示: 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 ● 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+4.3pct。其中，一二线同比-32%，三四线同比 -34.4%，分别较 11 月+2.9pct 和+18.9pct。上周 13 城二手房合计成交 111.4 万平米，环比-0.4%； 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's proposals for extending the maturity of its 2 billion yuan bond were not approved, indicating significant challenges in its liquidity management and debt repayment capabilities [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Bondholder Meeting Outcomes - The bond's principal repayment date is set for December 15, 2025, with an outstanding balance of 2 billion yuan and an annual interest rate of 3% [2]. - Proposal 1 to adjust the repayment arrangement received no support, with 16 out of 18 participating holders opposing it, representing 76.70% of the voting rights [2]. - Proposal 2, which included conditional adjustments and additional credit enhancements, was supported by 7 holders (83.40%) but failed to meet the required 90% approval threshold [3]. - Proposal 3, which also aimed to adjust repayment arrangements and add credit enhancements, was supported by only 1 holder (18.95%), leading to its rejection as well [3]. Group 2: Financial and Liquidity Challenges - Vanke has a 5-day grace period to repay the bond's principal or interest, during which negotiations with investors are expected to take place [4]. - Fitch Ratings placed Vanke on a negative watch list, citing liquidity concerns and insufficient cash to meet upcoming obligations [4]. - Vanke's available cash decreased from 69 billion yuan at the end of June 2025 to 60 billion yuan by the end of September 2025, with a significant portion being pre-sale regulatory deposits [4]. - The company faces substantial upcoming debt repayments, including nearly 6 billion yuan due in December 2025 and approximately 12 billion yuan due in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Market and Industry Context - As of November 2025, Vanke needs to repay 18.2 billion yuan in domestic debt within a year, with a shortfall of over 6 billion yuan due to limited lending capacity from its main financial backer [5]. - The company's revenue from development activities has declined by 32.45% year-on-year, raising concerns about the sustainability of positive operating cash flow [5]. - Rating downgrades by agencies like Moody's have increased Vanke's financing costs to 3.58%, further complicating its ability to raise funds in a recovering market [5]. - The ongoing downturn in the real estate market is expected to continue affecting sales and cash flow, necessitating external support to stabilize the company [5].

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 经济工作会议定调，着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 房地产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+ ...