[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 26 年 1 月市场总结 市场信心逐步回升，主流标的表现优异 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-26 [相对市场表现 Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn 分析师： 邢莘 SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 021-38003638 xingshen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 谢淼 SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 SFC CE No. BVB342 021-38003637 xiemiao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李怡慧 SAC 执证号：S0260524040001 SFC CE No. BVI219 021-38003636 liyihui@gf.com.cn 分析师： 辛恬 SAC 执证号：S026052 ...

摘要 2025年，中央提出"推动房地产高质量发展"，并将构建房地产发展新模式纳入"十五五"规划重点任务。围绕"推动市场止跌回稳、加快构建房地产发展新 模式"这一核心目标，政策层面形成三大重点发力方向：一是加快库存去化与供给结构优化，推动市场供需平衡；二是强化保交楼融资支持落地，筑牢市 场风险防控底线；三是持续推进需求端政策宽松，释放刚性和改善性住房需求。 图表1 2025年房地产行业相关政策 | 数据来源：公开资料，东方金诚整理 | | --- | 2025年房地产市场回顾：2025年房地产市场延续调整，下半年市场加速下滑。12月70城二手房和新房价格同比分别下跌6.1%和3.1%，全年商品房销售面 积同比下降8.7%，投资端收缩态势更为严峻，全年开发投资完成额同比下降17.2%。在市场持续调整背景下，2025年房企融资环境无实质性改善，年末万 科展期事件推升行业风险溢价，但年内房企债务重组工作取得较大进展，对相关企业资产负债表修复具有积极意义。 2026年房地产市场展望：2026年房地产政策将延续边际宽松基调。其中，需求端政策核心在于引导实际房贷利率下行，供给端则通过控增量、去存量，共 同推动供需结构优化。 ...

据中指研究院监测，今年春节期间，楼市整体呈现典型的"假期模式"。受节日返乡、出游及部分城市网 签暂停更新等因素影响，重点城市新房及二手房网签成交量均处于季节性低位。 2月24日，各大机构公布了春节期间（2月15日～23日）重点城市新房及二手房成交数据。 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶指出，春节期间部分房企积极"抢跑"，多地项目"春节不打烊"，推 出特惠房源、购房折扣等促销活动；由于今年春节假期时间靠后，部分教育刚需购房者开始提前出手， 带动假期后半段二手房带看量有所回升。"核心城市楼市有望开启'小阳春'温和复苏行情，假期积压需 求有望逐步释放。" "将迎来一波签约潮" "春节期间，各项目筹划落地线上直播看房，主播在直播间与客户互动、答疑，线下举办非遗主题社群 活动，所有认购客户享受额外16666元成交优惠。"西南万科相关负责人告诉《每日经济新闻》记者（以 下简称每经记者），西南万科实现来访2351人次，认购210套（含车位），其中成都城市群74套、重庆 87套、贵阳49套。 春节期间，招商蛇口成都举办了30场社群活动，累计实现成交50套、2.5亿元；中铁建成都武侯西派御 府实现来访239组、成交金额约260 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 以史为鉴，地产债修复路径展望 [Table_Title2] 信用策略宝典之三 [Table_Summary] 2025年 11月以来，万科债券展期事件引发地产债调整，目前高评级主体已 率先止跌，地产债后续修复路径备受市场关注。我们以史为鉴，通过复盘 前两轮地产债信用利差走扩与修复的历程，总结其修复的核心驱动因素及 典型特征，并提出后续地产债投资策略。 ►万科债券展期事件引发地产债调整 2025 年 11 月以来，万科经历了首次境内债展期引发股债双杀、初版展期方 案后多轮博弈、第二版展期方案获通过及 68 亿元债券展期落地。与此同 时，万科债券价格经历了"快速大跌-小幅反弹-大幅反弹"。 受万科债券展期的影响，地产债收益率明显上行，且中低评级表现弱于高 评级、1 年以上表现普遍弱于 1 年以内品种。1 月 15 日以来万科第二版展 期方案获通过并兑付部分本金，万科债券价格明显反弹，但地产债并未迎 来全线修复，而是表现分化。2 月 14 日较 1 月 15 日，隐含评级 AAA 各期 限收益率下行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers and the scale of defaulted bonds decreased significantly. The default of state - owned enterprises came to an end, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed. The scale of default repayment increased, but most real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [1][6][7]. - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The net financing scale of non - state - owned enterprises turned positive for the first time since 2018. Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5% [3][19][20]. - Looking forward to 2026, the policy bottom - line is to prevent systemic risks. The overall credit risk is relatively controllable, but the operating pressure of some tail - end entities in certain industries remains, and default risks are still worthy of attention [3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Credit Bond Market Default Feature Summary - **Newly - defaulted issuers and bond scale**: The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers in 2025 decreased to 4, with 3 from the real - estate industry and its upstream and downstream chains. The scale of defaulted bonds continued to decline, and the extended - term part due to the continuous exposure of default risks from 2022 - 2023 ended by the end of 2024 [1][6]. - **Enterprise nature**: State - owned enterprise defaults ended in 2025, while the risks of broad - sense private enterprises continued to be exposed, especially those in the real - estate industry chain that had not defaulted during the previous strict regulatory period [7]. - **Default repayment**: In 2025, there were 118 cases of default bond repayments, with a total principal repayment of 14.3 billion yuan and interest of 639 million yuan. The real - estate industry repaid 12.1 billion yuan in principal, and 11 out of 17 real - estate enterprises only paid interest without repaying the principal [7]. 3.2 Default Analysis: Continuous Exposure of Broad - sense Private Enterprises and Slight Decline in Cumulative Default Rate 3.2.1 Default Overview - The number of newly - defaulted credit bond issuers decreased to 4 in 2025, all non - state - owned. The total outstanding bonds of defaulted issuers increased significantly year - on - year, mainly due to the extension of Vanke's large - scale bonds. The scale of defaulted bonds decreased by 67% year - on - year [11]. - Industry - wide, since 2014, credit bond default issuers have been widely distributed across 29 Shenwan industries, and in 2025, they were mainly in real estate, building decoration, and power equipment. Regionally, since 2014, default issuers have covered most provinces, and in 2025, they were in Guangdong and Zhejiang [14]. 3.2.2 Default Rate - The overall, non - state - owned marginal and cumulative default rates of credit bonds in 2025 decreased slightly. The non - state - owned net financing scale turned positive for the first time since 2018 to 24.3 billion yuan [19]. - Industries such as electrical equipment, textile and clothing, real estate, and commercial trade had a cumulative default rate of over 5%, with real estate and commercial trade having relatively high default scales, and electrical equipment and textile and clothing having relatively low total bond - issuing scales [20]. 3.2.3 Default Reasons - Macroeconomic policies and market environment continuously affected the credit risks of entities. Entities like Xinjie Holdings, Zhengxinglong Real Estate, and Vanke were greatly affected by the previous strict real - estate regulatory policies, while Shanshan Group's poor performance was due to industry cycle changes [3][25]. 3.3 Default Recovery Situation - The cumulative recovery rate and recovery time of defaulted credit bonds have been decreasing year by year. Since 2020, the annual default recovery rate has been less than 20%, and the average recovery time is within two years, with the decline narrowing in 2025 [30]. - As of 2025, the cumulative default recovery rate of state - owned enterprises was 25.12%, 13 percentage points higher than that of non - state - owned enterprises, and the gap remained basically the same as the previous year [33]. - In 2025, real - estate bond repayments still dominated. The total principal repayment of defaulted bonds was 14.3 billion yuan, with the real - estate industry repaying 12.1 billion yuan. Sunac repaid 9.5 billion yuan in principal, and Shanshan Group among the newly - defaulted issuers in 2025 repaid 267 million yuan in principal [37].

2月25日，万科A盘中上涨2.03%，截至09:47，报5.02元/股，成交3.50亿元，换手率0.72%，总市值 598.92亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入2764.08万元，特大单买入9479.96万元，占比27.12%，卖出5684.46万 元，占比16.26%；大单买入9025.07万元，占比25.81%，卖出1.01亿元，占比28.77%。 万科A今年以来股价涨7.96%，近5个交易日涨2.87%，近20日涨4.80%，近60日跌17.16%。 资料显示，万科企业股份有限公司位于广东省深圳市盐田区大梅沙环梅路33号万科中心,香港中环花园 道1号中银大厦43楼A室，成立日期1984年5月30日，上市日期1991年1月29日，公司主营业务涉及房地 产开发和物业服务。主营业务收入构成为：房地产开发及相关资产经营业务80.17%，物业服务 16.23%，其他(补充)3.61%。 责任编辑：小浪快报 分红方面，万科AA股上市后累计派现1030.33亿元。近三年，累计派现80.63亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，万科A十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流通 股东，持股1.72亿 ...

华源证券研判，我国房地产调整的长度与深度已相对充分，复盘全球主要经济体房地产危机，平均跌幅 35%、调整时间6年，当前实际调整幅度与持续时间均已接近历史均值；叠加中央高频强调"好房子"建 设、REITs试点加速落地、保障性住房金融支持政策扩围等新机制逐步成型，行业有望进入调整尾声阶 段。 中银证券指出，"政策拐点"需要提前布局，"基本面拐点"机会持续时间会更长，持续性的修复仍要待价 格止跌回稳。"政策拐点"可能会体现在房地产供需两端的政策积极性提升，"基本面拐点"主要指需求好 转的明朗度，主要体现在二手房价格的降幅收窄。从投资主线来说，部分房企在2025年计提减值相对充 分，2026、2027年减值压力减轻，在此变化之下有反转可能性；部分持有性商业地产公司已经提前布局 新业态、新模式、新场景，更能把握新消费时代下的机遇。 截至2026年2月25日 09:41，房地产ETF(512200)上涨2.15%，成交6902.58万元。跟踪指数中证全指房地 产指数成分股光明地产上涨10.07%，城投控股上涨9.96%，我爱我家上涨4.56%，滨江集团，华联控股 等个股跟涨。 上周为春节假期，受此影响市场整体成交回落。但 ...

| 各线 | 城市 | 2026春节假期 (2.15-2.23) 新建商品住宅 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 合计成交面积(万平米) | | 使之道 | | 1.36 | | 北京 | | 0.23 | | 深圳 | | 0.22RE15 | | 广州 | | 0.14 | | 温州 | | 1.08 | | 济南 | | 1.01 FIS | | 武汉 | | 中指 0.89 | | 成都 | | 0.54 | | 宁波 | | 0.49 | | 线 | 苏州 | 0.27 | | 福州 | | 0.27 | | 青岛 | | 0.15 | | 南宁 | | 0.12 REIS | | 西宁 | | 0.06 | | 甫田 | | 0.82 | | 北京 | | 0.81 | | 梅州 | | 0.81REID | | 四线 | 韶关 | 0.21 | | 佛山 | | 0.17 | | 清远 | | 0.17 | | 泰安 | | 中指 0.15 | | 合计 12 | | 10.0 | 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶指出，春节期间部分房企积极"抢跑"，多地项目"春节不打烊"， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the real estate market continued to adjust, with an accelerated decline in the second half of the year. The prices of second - hand and new houses decreased, and the sales area and investment also declined. The financing environment of real - estate enterprises did not improve substantially, but debt restructuring made progress [4]. - In 2026, real estate policies will remain marginally loose. Demand - side policies aim to lower actual mortgage rates, and supply - side policies focus on controlling increments and reducing inventories to optimize the supply - demand structure. The market will likely continue to adjust, but the adjustment amplitude will narrow. Sales may stop falling and stabilize if mortgage rates can be effectively lowered, and investment decline will also narrow [5]. - In 2026, the bond repayment pressure of state - owned real - estate enterprises is mainly concentrated in the domestic bond market and has decreased compared to previous years. The bond maturity volume of private real - estate enterprises has significantly declined, and the overall repayment pressure is low. The credit risk of real - estate bonds will tend to be stable, but the debt repayment situation of individual private enterprises still needs attention. Debt restructuring of real - estate enterprises will continue to accelerate [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Real Estate Policy Review - **Accelerating inventory reduction and optimizing supply structure**: Supply - side policies centered on "controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supply". "Controlling increments" involved matching land and new housing supply as needed and controlling new land use in surplus areas. In 2025, the land supply in third - tier cities contracted rapidly, and 1202.1 billion yuan of land reserve special bonds were used to acquire idle land. "Reducing inventories" aimed to clear market inventories and ensure people's livelihoods through measures such as converting existing commercial housing into affordable housing and urban village renovation. "Optimizing supply" promoted the upgrading of housing quality with the construction of "good houses" [9][11][12]. - **Strengthening the implementation of financing support for housing delivery**: The focus of the "housing delivery guarantee" work shifted from "mechanism establishment" to "financing implementation". By October 2025, the approved loan amount for "whitelist" projects exceeded 7 trillion yuan, but there were challenges such as intensified project qualification differentiation and a time lag between approval and loan disbursement [15]. - **Marginal relaxation of demand - side policies**: Demand - side policies continued to be refined to reduce the cost of home - buying and release rigid and improved housing demand. In 2025, the purchase restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen were significantly relaxed, the down - payment ratio was lowered, the provident fund loan interest rate was reduced, and the loan amount was increased [16]. 3.2 2025 Real Estate Market Operation - **Price performance**: Second - hand house prices continued to fall, with the decline first narrowing slightly and then widening significantly. In December, the year - on - year decline in 70 - city second - hand house prices was 6.1%, and first - tier cities showed a "catch - up decline" feature. New house prices also continued to fall, with a 3.0% year - on - year decline in 70 - city new commercial housing prices in December [21][24]. - **Sales performance**: The real - estate sales continued to be deeply adjusted in 2025. The annual commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%, and the sales volume was 8393.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%. The market activity was low, and the daily average transaction volume in 30 cities was weak [25][30]. - **Investment performance**: Real - estate development investment accelerated its decline in 2025, with the annual investment completion amount of 8278.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sources of development funds decreased by 13.4% year - on - year. New construction, construction, and completion areas all decreased. The land market was cold, with a 14.2% year - on - year decrease in the planned construction area of residential land in 100 large and medium - sized cities [35][36][42]. 3.3 2025 Real - Estate Bond Market Performance - **Issuance and net financing**: In 2025, the total issuance of domestic and overseas real - estate bonds was 796.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 93.3%. The net financing gap narrowed significantly. Domestic bonds: 83 real - estate enterprises issued 413 domestic real - estate bonds, with a total issuance of 360.95 billion yuan, and the net financing gap was 62.96 billion yuan. Overseas bonds: 74 overseas real - estate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 61.8 billion US dollars, and the net financing turned positive [49][50][60]. - **Credit risk evolution**: From 2021 to 2025, 65 domestic and overseas bond default and extension entities were added, with 2 in 2025. The event of Vanke's bond extension in 2025 had a significant impact on the market, affecting market confidence, financing environment, and industry differentiation [62][70]. - **Debt resolution of troubled real - estate enterprises**: Since 2024, the debt - resolution strategy has shifted to "substantial debt reduction + structural optimization". In 2025, investors became more accepting of debt reduction, and the debt - resolution approach changed from partial and scattered disposal to overall restructuring. Debt - resolution tools became more diversified. For example, CIFI Group's debt restructuring verified the feasibility of the "substantial debt reduction" plan [72][73][74]. - **Secondary - market price changes and spread fluctuations**: In 2025, the number of abnormal price movements in the secondary market of real - estate bonds decreased. The spread of real - estate bonds showed a trend of "oscillating downward and rising at the end of the year", and was more affected by the overall credit - bond market [77][80]. 3.4 2026 Real Estate Industry and Real - Estate Bond Market Outlook - **Policy outlook**: In 2026, real - estate policies will remain marginally loose. Demand - side policies will focus on guiding the actual mortgage rate to decline, and supply - side policies will continue to control increments and reduce inventories. However, the short - term stimulus policies will not be significantly stronger than in 2025 [87]. - **Market outlook**: The real - estate market will likely continue to adjust in 2026, but the adjustment amplitude will narrow. If the actual mortgage rate can be effectively lowered, the sales may stop falling and stabilize, and the investment decline will also narrow [97]. - **Credit risk outlook**: In 2026, the total maturity scale of domestic and overseas real - estate bonds is 596.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The debt repayment pressure of state - owned real - estate enterprises has decreased, and that of private real - estate enterprises is low. The overall credit risk of the real - estate industry will tend to be stable, but the debt repayment of individual private enterprises needs attention [99]. - **Debt - resolution path outlook**: Debt restructuring through substantial debt reduction and diversified innovative debt tools will continue to accelerate in 2026. The market trend and the transformation and development of real - estate enterprises will be the two key variables affecting the debt - resolution process [103].

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Fupu New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has initiated the listing guidance for A-share IPO with the support of Zheshang Securities, marking a significant step in its growth strategy [1] Company Overview - Fupu New Materials was established in 2016 with a registered capital of 430 million yuan [1] - The company specializes in the production and sales of ready-mixed ordinary and special concrete, prefabricated building components, autoclaved aerated concrete panels and blocks, building mortar, cement, and additives, positioning itself as a comprehensive green building materials manufacturer [1] Financial Performance - In 2022, Fupu New Materials achieved a revenue of 2.85864 billion yuan, ranking 81st among the top 100 private enterprises in Chongqing in 2023 [1] Partnerships - The company collaborates with major state-owned enterprises and real estate firms, including China Merchants Shekou, China National Nuclear Corporation, China Railway Construction Corporation, China Hydropower, Longfor, Vanke, and Jinmao Group [1]