信用债周策略 20260203 地产债情绪修复到哪里? glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 03 日 [Table_Author] | 1 本周地产热点事件 3 | | --- | | 1.1 三道红线政策逐步退场 3 | | 1.2 2026 年以来地产相关政策梳理 3 | | 2 地产债情绪修复到哪里？ 5 | | 2.1 近期地产债市场成交情况 5 | | 2.2 热门产业类地产主体交易情绪修复到哪里？ 6 | | 3 投资策略 9 | | 4 一级市场跟踪 16 | | 5 二级市场观察 19 | | 5.1 二级市场成交的"量" 19 | | 5.2 二级市场成交的"价" 21 | | 6 风险提示 23 | | 插图目录 24 | 三道红线政策逐步退场：2026 年 1 月 28 日，据财联社等多家媒体报道，监管部 门不再硬性要求房企每月上报"三条红线"指标。"三条红线" 政策回顾：2020 年 8 月，住房城乡建设部、人民银行在北京召开重点房地产企业座谈会。会议指出， 人民银行、住房城乡建设部会同相关部门在前期广泛征求意见的基础上，形成了 重点房地产企业资金监测和融资管理规则， ...

Core Viewpoint - The top 100 real estate companies in China are experiencing a significant reshuffling in their rankings as of January 2026, with a notable decline in overall sales figures compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In January 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 190.52 billion yuan, representing an 18.9% year-on-year decline [2]. - Only three companies achieved sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in January, a decrease of two compared to the same period last year [2]. - The number of companies with sales over 5 billion yuan increased to ten, up by two from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Ranking Changes - The top 10 rankings saw significant changes, with Poly Developments, China Overseas, and China Resources remaining in the top four, while Vanke dropped from fifth to ninth place [3]. - China Travel Investment emerged as a major dark horse, jumping from outside the top 40 to fifth place [3]. - China Jinmao rose from thirteenth to seventh, indicating intensified competition within the top tier [3]. Group 3: Performance of Private Enterprises - Among the 32 companies that experienced year-on-year growth in January, six private enterprises had growth rates exceeding 100% [3]. - Bangtai Group and China Construction Yipin entered the top 20 in sales, benefiting from strategic investments during market lows [3]. Group 4: New Entrants and Market Dynamics - Seven new companies entered the top 100 list in January, with four being small to medium-sized private enterprises [4]. - State-owned enterprises continue to dominate land acquisition, with companies like Yuexiu Property and China Resources maintaining strong investment levels [4]. Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - The policy environment is shifting towards stabilizing expectations, with measures such as extended tax rebates and loan extensions being implemented [4]. - The market is expected to see a gradual release of demand in March, driven by promotional activities from real estate companies before the Spring Festival [5].

2026年新年伊始，房企销售业绩取得"开门红"了吗？ 1月31日，中指研究院、克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心、亿翰智库三大机构公布百强房企销售业绩。据中指 研究院数据，2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%，相比去年全年的降幅基本持平。 值得关注的是，在房企的"开局战"中，TOP10的房企排名发生了变化，其中，中旅投资成为最大的黑马，在1月以 92.8亿元的销售额位列百强房企第5位。 同比下降背后：去年1月基数较高 | 8 | 建发房产 | 65.0亿元 | | --- | --- | --- | | 9 | 万科 | 55.8亿元 | | 10 | 滨江集团 | 52.9亿元 | | 11 | 越秀地产 | 45.0亿元 | | 12 | 保利置业 | 38.0亿元 | | 13 | 中国铁建 | 37.4亿元 | | 14 | 绿地图股 | 36.3亿元 | | 15 | 中建东孚 | 35.2亿元 | | 16 | 中交房地产 | 34.0亿元 | | 17 | 大华集团 | 32.1亿元 | | 18 | 华发股份 | 28.0亿元 | | 19 | 碧桂园 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF万亿指数） 2月来了，没有等来开门红，却又一次见证了历史！ 这个月唯一的收入就是各群里的元宝AI红包，这不，阿里千问也要加入AI红包大战，期待着！ 终于知道恒科为什么下跌了，以前是外卖大战，现在是AI红包大战，总之拖累恒科... 太不容易了... 据说现在的新股民是这样的，我也在大A开了超市，什么化工，机器人，半导体，白银，黄金，有色金 属、商业航天...不小心货架塌了 顿悟了，想要躺平的话，还得是宽基，比如A500ETF华泰柏瑞（563360）周五开始大幅净流入，或许是 资金有点新变化。 | 代码 | | ◆ 近1日净申赎◆ | | --- | --- | --- | | 563360 | A500ETF华泰柏瑞 陆 | 14.27亿 | 贵金属发生了啥？ 聊聊黄金白银。从周五到今天，金银双杀，从历史新高到急速跳水，到底经历了啥？放两张图来感受 下。。。 现货黄金从5600到4682，白银日内最高回撤幅度近40%，血雨腥风！ | 上海启动收购二手住房 × | | | | | | 5 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

导语：窗口期末尾，冰火两重天。 作者：市值风云 App：迷宫 2025 年报业绩预告开箱（六）：百亿巨亏连环爆，AI 与创新药继续领跑 本研报基于截至 2026 年 2 月 2 日 A 股上市公司发布的业绩预告公告，筛选出值得关 注的标的。 一、业绩增速亮眼标的 1、新易盛（300502.SZ） 核心原因摘要： • 受益于全球算力投资持续增长，800G、1.6T 等高速率光模块需求快速提升 • 公司产品结构高端化，800G 营收占比达 65%-70%，毛利率稳定在 48%-50% • 1.6T产品通过英伟达GB200平台认证并规模化量产，在英伟达供应链占比超30%， 零售价格较上市初期上涨 70%至 2000 美元以上，毛利率超 50% • 泰国工厂产能释放，交付周期从 12 周压缩至 8 周，规模效应进一步摊薄成本 亮点分析： 业绩超市场一致预期（机构预测均值约 90-92 亿元），Q4 单季净利润环比增长 29%- 50%，增长加速度明显；扣非净利润与净利润高度吻合，盈利质量高；海外营收占比 94.47%，客户基本盘稳固；资产负债率仅 31.99%，财务风险极低。 2、寒武纪（688256.SH） 公司简 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance forecast of various A-share listed companies, indicating a significant divergence in earnings growth across different sectors, driven by technological advancements, cost control, and industry cycles [4][62]. Group 1: Companies with Strong Earnings Growth - **New Yisheng (300502.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86%, driven by rising demand for high-speed optical modules due to global computing power investments [6]. - **Han's Laser (688256.SH)**: Expected net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion, turning from a loss of 0.452 billion in the previous year, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI computing power [8]. - **Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17%, supported by strong investment in computing infrastructure [10]. - **Runze Technology (300442.SZ)**: Expected net profit of 5 billion to 5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, primarily due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance [12]. - **CITIC Securities (601995.SH)**: Expected net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85%, driven by steady growth in core business segments [15]. Group 2: Companies with Earnings Below Expectations - **Great Wall Motors (601633.SH)**: Expected net profit of 9.912 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71%, impacted by increased marketing expenses and intense competition [34]. - **GAC Group (601238.SH)**: Expected net profit of -8 billion to -9 billion, turning from a profit of 0.824 billion in the previous year, due to fierce competition and adjustments in product structure [36]. - **GCL-Poly Energy (002506.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -0.89 billion to -1.29 billion, turning from a profit of 0.068 billion, affected by structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry [38]. - **Boli Tianheng (688506.SH)**: Expected net profit of -1.1 billion, turning from a profit of 3.708 billion, due to increased R&D expenses [39]. - **Daiyue City (000031.SZ)**: Expected net profit of -2.7 billion to -2.1 billion, continuing losses from the previous year, influenced by asset impairment provisions [42]. Group 3: Industry Trends - **Technological Breakthroughs**: Industries driven by technology, such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, are showing strong growth, with companies like New Yisheng and Rongchang Bio leading the way [62][63]. - **Cost Control**: The energy and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a clear divide, with companies like Datang Power benefiting from lower coal prices and effective cost management [64]. - **Downward Pressure from Industry Cycles**: The real estate, agriculture, and photovoltaic sectors are under significant pressure, with companies like Vanke and Tianbang Food facing substantial earnings declines [65][66].

Asian stocks followed Wall Street lower on Monday as lingering trade tensions along with renewed uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy and ongoing heavy selling in the precious metals space spurred risk aversion. Investors also looked ahead to the release of key U.S. jobs data as well as central bank decisions in Australia, Europe and London for direction.Precious metals including gold and silver continued to plunge during Asian trading hours, with gold falling over 5 percent and silver declining nearly 8 ...

2026.02. 02 本文字数：1871，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 封图 | AI生成 Wind数据显示，截至目前已有65家A股上市房企发布业绩预告，其中去年预计实现盈利的房企仅16家，其余49家均出现不同程度的亏损，亏损房企数量 占比超七成。从"预亏"规模看，去年预计亏损超百亿的有5家，亏损规模较高的超八百亿。 在A股上市房企中，万科A目前亏损规模居首。该公司预计，2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损约820亿元，较上年同期亏损494.78亿元大幅扩 大；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损约800亿元，上年同期亏损453.94亿元。 除了房开结算规模下降、毛利率处于低位、资产计提减值等行业普遍因素，万科去年业绩预亏的原因还有：部分经营性业务扣除折旧摊销后整体亏损， 部分非主业财务投资出现亏损；部分大宗资产交易和股权交易价格低于账面值。 华夏幸福、绿地控股、华侨城A、金地集团四家房企，去年"预亏"规模都超过百元，期内预计归母净利润数值分别为-240亿元～-160亿元、-190亿元 ～-160亿元、-155亿元～-130亿元、-135亿元～-111亿元，部分房企已经实质性"资不抵债"。 ...

房企2025年整体业绩概况出炉。 数据显示，截至目前已有65家A股上市房企发布业绩预告，其中去年预计实现盈利的房企仅16家，其余 49家均出现不同程度的亏损，亏损房企数量占比超七成。从"预亏"规模看，去年预计亏损超百亿的有5 家，亏损规模较高的超八百亿。 在A股上市房企中，万科A目前亏损规模居首。该公司预计，2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损 约820亿元，较上年同期亏损494.78亿元大幅扩大；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损约800亿元，上年 同期亏损453.94亿元。 此外，"预亏"规模在50亿至百亿之间的房企有荣盛发展、华发股份、信达地产、首开股份、金融 街；"预亏"规模在20亿至50亿之间的房企有福星股份、光明地产、北辰实业、大悦城、南山控股等6家 房企；"预亏"规模在10亿至20亿之间的房企共10家。 另有中洲控股、财信发展、万通发展、上实发展、合肥城建、中国武夷、凤凰股份、城建发展、大龙地 产、云南城投等23家房企"预亏"规模在1亿至10亿之间。 对比出现亏损的房企，去年预计实现盈利的房企数量仅16家，占比不到三成。 出险房企金科股份预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润为300亿元～3 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产开发与服务 26 年第 5 周 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 43 ⚫ 商业不动产大举来袭，"三道红线"正式走出历史。虽然从 23 年开始 "红线"对企业融资行为已经无实质约束作用，但上周的这个报道仍代 表着一个时代的结束。上周四、五，证监会主导的商业不动产 REITs 开 始第一批申报，首批申报规模超 321 亿元，占存量 C-REITs 规模的 14%，来势汹汹，未来 C-REITs 特别是不动产 REITs 的规模将会大幅 度提升。多地政府加大"以旧换新"力度，收购目标从新房和土地变成 二手房，这将会极大的提升政府资金对于稳定市场价格的效率和作用。 ⚫ 基数走低全口径数据同比增速走强，二手房实时成交表现稳定。房管 局网签，50 城新房环比+3.3%，周同比+37.2%，26 年 1 月前 29 天同 比-19.5%，对齐春节-18.6%；11 城二手网签环比-9.0%，周同比大幅 上升 8.7%，1 月二手网签同比+9.6%，对齐春节-16%。中介高频成交， 79 城认购环比持平，1 ...