Core Insights - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai is experiencing strong demand, highlighted by the recent launch of the "Gaofuyun Jing" project, which sold 25 units priced over 1.3 billion yuan within hours of opening [2][3] - The project, developed by Vanke and Huazhou Real Estate, offers high-end apartments ranging from 270 to 600 square meters, with an average price of 21,000 yuan per square meter [2] - The high entry threshold for buyers, with a deposit requirement of 7.6 million yuan for individuals and 19 million yuan for corporate clients, indicates the exclusivity of the market segment [2] Market Trends - The Shanghai real estate market is showing a steady upward trend, particularly in the luxury segment, driven by favorable policies and market confidence [3] - The performance of high-end properties, including the recent success of "Gaofuyun Jing," reflects the ongoing strong purchasing power among high-net-worth individuals in core cities [3] - According to the Shanghai E-House Research Institute, the number of new homes sold in Shanghai priced at 30 million yuan and above has consistently exceeded 1,000 units for two consecutive years, indicating robust demand for top-tier luxury properties [2]

编辑丨苏木 文丨苏木 本文陈述所有内容皆有可靠信息来源，赘述在文章结尾 谁能想到，昔日模范生万科，竟以惊心动魄的方式走向悬崖边缘？ 董事长辛杰神秘失联，总裁祝九胜被采取强制措施，万科赖以生存的外部国资信用与内部精英治理神话，几乎同时毫无征兆地碎裂。 这不只是一场债务危机，更是一场地基的彻底坍塌 地产标杆名号不保 今年一月，万科刚露危机苗头，第一大股东深圳地铁就派了自己人辛杰，空降到万科当董事长。 市场一看就懂了，这是国资下场托底啊，国家队来了万科肯定稳了！大家心里的石头总算落了地。 可剧情的走向，比黑色幽默电影还离谱，这位被寄予厚望的董事长，屁股还没把椅子坐热，就创下了"史上最短命董事长"纪录，在位才九个 月。 风暴的起点，得从一个叫"救火队长"的男人说起。 今年一月，万科刚露危机苗头，第一大股东深圳地铁就派了自己人辛杰，空降到万科当董事长。 这事儿可不光是没钱那么简单，不是单纯的债务爆雷，说白了是万科的地基塌了，它吃饭的两大靠山：外面国资给的信用背书，还有内部精 英搞的专业管理，几乎同时没了影，连点征兆都没有。 风暴的起点，得从一个叫"救火队长"的男人说起。 真正的大雷在九月十八号炸了，辛杰在深圳开完会，没 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current situation of Vanke reflects a significant decline in its financial performance, drawing parallels with other companies that once thrived in their respective industries but later faced downturns as markets matured or changed [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - Vanke's profits have drastically decreased from 415 billion in 2020 to a projected loss of 494 billion in 2024, indicating a troubling trend for the company [7]. - The company's profit figures for the past years are as follows: 2020 - 415 billion, 2021 - 225 billion, 2022 - 226 billion, 2023 - 121 billion, and 2024 - projected at -494 billion [7]. Market Position and Industry Context - Vanke, once a leader in the real estate sector, is now entering a saturated market, similar to how companies like Changhong and Konka transitioned from growth to mediocrity as their industry matured [2][3]. - The real estate market is shifting from an incremental to a stagnant phase, which could lead to Vanke's decline mirroring that of past industry leaders [3]. Debt and Financial Health - Vanke's current market value is 754 billion, with liabilities amounting to 8,730 billion, indicating a precarious financial situation [18]. - To break even, Vanke would need to sell properties at an average price of 19,872 per square meter, while the actual sales price is significantly lower at 12,824 per square meter [20]. Future Outlook - The company is facing challenges in refinancing and managing its debts, with every due payment requiring intervention from local government entities [20]. - There is a sentiment that Vanke's survival is crucial for the broader real estate market, but its current trajectory suggests a potential need for restructuring [20].

最近万科的新闻有点多，想起以前万科20多的时候论坛里有人发帖说万科值得珍惜。 我想应该没人从20多珍惜到现在这个价位的吧？ 量化投资先锋 现在万科重复当年长虹、康佳的历史，遥想当年长虹、康佳也是电视机行业旗帜，当电视行 业处在风头，长虹、康佳也随风而起，也随地产风而落，万科一样。 在数码成像技术的冲击下，胶卷行业成了昔日黄花，行业的霸主美国的柯达、日本的富士， 也一落千丈。 价值投资应该看行业价值，行业有价值，龙头才有价值，行业没有价值龙头怎么可能还有价 值。 电视机行业处在增量市场，长虹、康佳很牛，进入存量市场，一切都归于平庸。 原来房地产是增量市场，万科作为行业龙头，肯定风光，现在进入存量市场，结局很可能和 长虹、康佳一样。 腾讯所处行业风头还在。当风不在，腾讯也是一样的结果。 谁能想到英特和英伟达地位发生天翻地覆的变化。 当风来了，猪也能飞上天。当风去了，是龙也得爬在地上。 ylshxajh @kkqq999 所以我一直想问价值派的同学，你什么时候才会止损一只股票呢？从２０跌到６.４ 元吗。因为２０元的时候你是觉得逻辑没问题的，那跌到多少才觉得有问题 股价跌了并不代表公司有问题 看年报，利润跌了，公司肯 ...

於本公告日期，董事會成員包括：執行董事郁亮先生及王蘊女士；非執行董事黃力平 先生、胡國斌先生及雷江松先生；以及獨立非執行董事廖子彬先生、林明彥先生、沈 向洋博士及張懿宸先生。 萬科企業股份有限公司（「本公司」）謹此公佈，本公司訂於2025年10月30日（星期四） 舉行本公司董事會（「董事會」）會議，藉以（其中包括）考慮及批准本公司及其附屬公 司截至2025年9月30日止之三個月及九個月之季度業績及其發佈。 萬科企業股份有限公司 董事會 中國，深圳，2025年10月17日 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確 性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或 因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 CHINA VANKE CO., LTD.* 萬科企業股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ） （股份代號：2202） 董事會召開日期 * 僅供識別 ...

万科企业股份有限公司 关于董事会会议召开日期的公告 证券代码：000002、299903 证券简称：万科 A、万科 H 代 万科企业股份有限公司 公告编号：〈万〉2025-131 董事会 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏。 二〇二五年十月十七日 根据《香港联合交易所有限公司证券上市规则》13.43 条关于董事会审议定 期报告应预先披露董事会召开日期的要求，以及《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》 11.2.1 条关于信息披露需境内外同步披露的要求，万科企业股份有限公司（以下 简称"本公司"）谨此公布： 本公司将于 2025 年 10 月 30 日召开董事会会议，审议本公司 2025 年第三季 度报告、财务报表等相关事项。 特此公告。 ...

万科A公告，将于2025年10月30日召开董事会会议，审议公司2025年第三季度报告、财务报表等相关事 项。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Vanke A experienced a block trade on October 17, with a transaction volume of 700,000 shares and a transaction value of 4.501 million yuan, indicating a premium of 1.74% over the closing price of the day [1] Group 1: Block Trade Details - The block trade involved a transaction price of 6.43 yuan per share, which is higher than the closing price of 6.32 yuan [1] - The buyer and seller for this transaction were both from the same brokerage, Everbright Securities Co., Ltd., Ningbo Liuting Street Securities Branch [1] - In the last three months, Vanke A has recorded a total of 2 block trades, with a cumulative transaction value of 9.233 million yuan [1] Group 2: Stock Performance Metrics - On the day of the block trade, Vanke A's stock closed at 6.32 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.25% [1] - The stock had a turnover rate of 1.47% and a total trading volume of 909 million yuan for the day [1] - Over the past five days, Vanke A's stock has decreased by 6.37%, with a total net outflow of funds amounting to 454 million yuan [1] Group 3: Margin Financing Data - The latest margin financing balance for Vanke A is 3.560 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 6.3117 million yuan, which is a decline of 0.18% over the past five days [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Metro Group has significantly invested in Vanke, becoming its largest shareholder through multiple acquisitions and loans, indicating a strong commitment to the real estate sector [3][4][8]. Group 1: Share Acquisitions - In 2017, Shenzhen Metro Group acquired 15.31% of Vanke's shares from China Resources for approximately 372 billion [1]. - The same year, it purchased an additional 14.07% from Evergrande for about 292 billion, bringing the total investment in share acquisitions to 664 billion, solidifying its position as Vanke's largest shareholder [2][3]. Group 2: Additional Investments - In 2021, Shenzhen Metro Group increased its stake in Vanke by investing an additional 10 billion [4]. - The group also participated in Vanke's REITs products, contributing around 10 billion [4]. Group 3: Loans Provided - Since 2025, Shenzhen Metro Group has provided multiple loans to Vanke, totaling nearly 1,000 billion [5][8]. - Specific loan amounts include 28 billion on February 11, 42 billion on February 22, 33 billion on April 30, 15.52 billion on May 15, up to 30 billion on June 6, 16.81 billion on August 5, and 20.64 billion on September 16 [6]. - The interest rate on these loans is 2.34%, which is lower than the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) published by the National Interbank Funding Center [7]. Group 4: Broader Context of Support - Other Shenzhen-based entities have also provided financial support to various real estate companies, including significant investments by Shenzhen Talent Housing Group and Shenzhen International [10][11][12]. - The "Risk Sharing" plan initiated in 2018 saw approximately 150 billion allocated to rescue over 20 local listed companies, some of which are involved in real estate [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent criminal measures taken against Vanke's former president and CEO, Zhu Jiusheng, alongside the resignation of another key figure, Xin Jie, have plunged Vanke Group into a critical crisis, raising concerns about its future amidst a challenging real estate market [1][10]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhu Jiusheng, who resigned from all positions at Vanke Group in January 2025, has been taken under criminal measures, suggesting potential underlying issues during his tenure [4][6]. - Xin Jie, the chairman of both Shenzhen Metro Group and Vanke Group, also resigned shortly before Zhu's situation became public, citing "work adjustment" as the reason [8]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Vanke Group reported a revenue of 105.32 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 26.2% compared to the same period last year [10]. - The company experienced a net loss attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.3% year-on-year, with a loss per share of 1.01 yuan, also down 21.3% [10]. Group 3: Debt Situation - As of June 30, 2025, Vanke Group's short-term borrowings amounted to 23.15 billion yuan, with non-current liabilities due within one year reaching 134.71 billion yuan, leading to a total interest-bearing debt of 157.86 billion yuan, indicating significant liquidity pressure [12]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following these leadership changes, Vanke's A-share price fell over 5%, hitting a new low for the year, while prices of its dollar bonds also experienced significant fluctuations [14]. - Moody's has downgraded Vanke's credit rating outlook from "stable" to "negative," reflecting market concerns regarding the company's future [14].