股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月30日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 000488 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,706,765,684 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,706,765,684 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,706,765,684 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,706,765,684 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the price of double-offset paper may hit a new low and enter the era starting with "3", in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price of double-offset paper, and the consensus expectation may reverse [3][7][51]. - The current futures price of double - offset paper is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness". Downward trading has limited value, and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [4][53]. Summary by Directory 1.上市以来的行情回顾 - After listing, the futures price of double - offset paper has maintained an overall oscillating trend, with the fluctuation range generally concentrated between 4,100 - 4,300 yuan/ton. The current futures market has fully priced in the long - term oversupply expectation, but this long - term downward pressure has not been transmitted to the spot market. The quotes of mainstream brands are relatively firm, and the decline is relatively limited. The expected return from selling for delivery currently cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market [8][51]. 2. 空头的核心逻辑是什么？ 2.1 产能持续投放 - In the medium to long term, the industry's production capacity has been continuously increasing, leading to severe overcapacity. The overall industry production capacity is estimated to be in the range of 16 - 18 million tons. It is expected that 950,000 tons of cultural paper will be put into production in the second half of 2025, accounting for about 5% - 6% of the current production capacity, and 1.43 million tons in 2026. Additionally, a southern paper mill plans to put into production a double - offset paper production line with a capacity of 1.2 million tons from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027 [14]. 2.2 需求见顶下滑 - The consumption of double - offset paper is mainly affected by the "one textbook and one supplementary material" policy and the population cycle. From January to July 2025, the cumulative consumption of double - offset paper was 4.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. Grassroots research shows that the consumption of off - campus supplementary teaching materials has decreased by 30% - 50% in different provinces. The number of compulsory education students has declined, and this downward trend is expected to continue in 2025 [16]. 2.3 晨鸣复工影响 - Recently, Shouguang Chenming has accelerated its resumption of work and production. After the successful start - up of Factory 6, the Meilun Chemical Pulp Factory and the paper production lines of Factories 5 and 9 have also been successfully put into operation. Factory 6 has a production capacity of about 160,000 tons, Factory 5 about 500,000 tons, Factory 9 about 400,000 tons, and the pulp line about 1.2 million tons. Other paper production lines will also be gradually started, increasing the overall industry supply pressure [18]. 2.4 成本和价格的负反馈 - The cost of double - offset paper includes raw materials (wood pulp) and papermaking costs, which are greatly affected by factors such as formula, wood pulp price, and integration level. As paper prices decline, paper mills have adjusted their formulas to reduce costs. The mainstream cost - reduction paths include reducing the proportion of commercial pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp, as well as reducing the proportion of softwood pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp. The estimated cash cost of mainstream natural - white double - offset paper is in the range of 3,600 - 4,200 yuan/ton. If a company has a high degree of integration, it can still make a profit [21][22]. 3. 是否存在尚未交易的潜在利多？ 3.1 教辅教材需求的边际改善 - The consumption of double - offset paper used for supplementary teaching materials has obvious seasonal characteristics. September to November is the peak season for tendering of supplementary teaching materials. Usually, the consumption of double - offset paper shows a seasonal month - on - month improvement during this period, and prices tend to have a phased rebound around the National Day. In 2024, the price did not rebound significantly due to the impact of policies and population. Since September 2025, the weekly sales volume of double - offset paper has increased from 157,000 tons to 167,000 tons, showing an obvious month - on - month improvement [25][28]. 3.2 浆价提涨带动预期有所改变 - In the short term, the price of imported hardwood pulp has been continuously rising, and the downward space for softwood pulp prices is limited, which has changed the bearish sentiment in the downstream market. The current pulp price is close to the full cost of Suzano's pulp. South American pulp companies led by Suzano have a strong willingness to raise prices and have started to actively cut production to support prices. Since the second quarter of 2025, many pulp mills have shut down or plan to shut down in the future due to economic reasons, and the shutdown capacity of commercial pulp has increased rapidly. The inventory days of softwood pulp in pulp mills are at a historical high, while the inventory days of hardwood pulp are relatively low, with certain price - increasing ability. Recently, as the price of hardwood pulp has rebounded from the bottom, the profit of paper mills has further declined, which has changed the expectations of some practitioners and weakened the bearish sentiment, thus boosting demand to some extent [31][36][40]. 3.3 交割利润修复 - In the short term, the 2601 contract is still far from the delivery date. It is believed that the paper price is unlikely to continue to decline in the short term, and the futures - spot convergence may be achieved by the futures price moving closer to the spot price. Based on the current delivery cost calculation, the current futures price is significantly undervalued. As the delivery date approaches, the repair of delivery profit may drive the futures price to rebound [42][43]. 3.4 长期变量中仍有利多 - There is still room for improvement in per - capita consumption. China's per - capita consumption of double - offset paper is about two - thirds of that in Japan. The decline in double - offset paper consumption cannot be linearly extrapolated, and the degree of overcapacity may be overestimated. Supplementary teaching materials are only one of the end - products of double - offset paper, and the decline in their consumption does not represent weak demand for social books. As of 2023, the overall print volume of social books has still been increasing. As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the added value of China's printing and recording media reproduction industry above the designated size was +1.3%. Double - offset paper machines can be used to produce other paper types, which may lead to an overestimation of the effective production capacity of double - offset paper and an underestimation of the overall capacity utilization rate [44][47][49]. 4. 总结和策略展望 - Although the price of double - offset paper may hit a new low, in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price. The short - term marginal improvement of short - term variables may drive the futures price to have a phased rebound before a significant decline. The current futures price is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness", and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [53].

Core Insights - The A-share listed paper companies in China reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 91.647 billion yuan and total profit of only 64 million yuan, indicating a challenging operating environment for the industry [1][4][13] Revenue Summary - A total of 27 listed paper companies reported revenues exceeding 2 billion yuan, with 19 companies achieving revenues over 10 billion yuan, representing 70.37% of the total [4] - The revenue of the top two companies, Sun Paper and Shanying International, was 19.113 billion yuan and 13.842 billion yuan respectively, while Chenming Paper's revenue dropped to 2.107 billion yuan due to production line maintenance [4][5] - 14 companies experienced revenue growth, accounting for 51.85% of the total, a decrease from 64.29% in the previous year [5] Profit Summary - The total profit for the 27 listed paper companies was only 64 million yuan, a drastic drop from 4.385 billion yuan in the same period last year, with 24 companies remaining profitable [8][9] - Sun Paper led the profit rankings with 1.78 billion yuan, while 10 companies reported profits exceeding 100 million yuan, a decrease of one company compared to the previous year [8][9] - 15 companies saw a decline in net profit, with 3 companies experiencing losses, the most significant being ST Chenming with a net loss of 3.858 billion yuan [9][10] Industry Trends - The paper industry is facing a "ice-fire two重天" situation, with production increasing but profits declining due to supply-demand imbalances and high costs [13] - The production of mechanical paper and paperboard in China increased by 3.2% in the first half of 2025, but the revenue for the paper and paper products industry decreased by 2.3% [13] - Leading companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe Co. are focusing on integrated operations to mitigate cost pressures and enhance profitability [13][14]

北京商报讯(记者张君花)9月22日，晨鸣纸业在投资者互动平台表示，目前公司寿光基地已全部恢复生 产；黄冈基地、江西基地二厂正常生产；江西基地一厂、吉林基地、湛江基地当前仍在停机检修，争取 尽快恢复生产。 ...

Group 1 - The company ST Morning (000488) has announced that its Shouguang base has fully resumed production [1] - The Huanggang base and Jiangxi base (second factory) are operating normally [1] - The Jiangxi base (first factory), Jilin base, and Zhanjiang base are currently under maintenance, with efforts to resume production as soon as possible [1]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for graphite thermal paper in China has been continuously growing due to the explosive growth of e-commerce and logistics, the upgrade in demand for high-precision thermal paper in sectors like healthcare and finance, and the shift towards environmentally friendly products driven by regulatory policies [1][10]. Industry Overview - Graphite thermal paper is a specialized type of thermal paper made from graphite powder and thermal materials, which exhibits specific color changes when heated. It is widely used in labels, receipts, medical applications, logistics, and electronic communications [4][5]. - The production of graphite thermal paper involves a supply chain that includes raw materials such as graphite, thermal resins, color developers, and base paper, which are processed into high-quality products through advanced manufacturing techniques [5][6]. Market Demand and Growth - The production volume of graphite thermal paper in China is projected to reach 172,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [1][11]. - The rapid growth of the logistics sector, particularly in e-commerce, has significantly increased the demand for thermal paper labels, with the express delivery volume expected to reach 95.64 billion pieces in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 19.3% [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - The Chinese graphite thermal paper industry features numerous participants, including large international companies and many regional small and medium-sized enterprises. Major companies include Guangdong Crown High-tech Co., Ltd., Shandong Chenming Paper Group Co., Ltd., and Xianhe Co., Ltd. [12][13]. - Guangdong Crown High-tech Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.905 billion yuan from thermal paper and sublimation paper in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.18% [13]. Development Trends - Technological innovation is expected to drive product upgrades, with the application of nanotechnology enhancing the heat resistance, stability, and durability of graphite thermal paper [14]. - Environmental regulations are prompting companies to adopt greener production methods, which may lead to the elimination of non-compliant firms and an overall improvement in the industry's environmental standards [15]. - The demand for graphite thermal paper is diversifying, with stable growth anticipated in the financial sector and increasing needs in logistics, healthcare, and retail, driven by advancements in smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0 [16].

Core Insights - The appreciation of the Renminbi has positively impacted certain sectors, with the Renminbi appreciation beneficiary sector rising by 0.71% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] Sector Performance - Leading stocks in the Renminbi appreciation beneficiary sector include: - Jingxing Paper (002067) with a closing price of 6.51, up 9.97% and a trading volume of 166,700 shares, totaling a transaction value of 109 million yuan [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 4.20, up 4.48% with a trading volume of 2,430,400 shares, totaling 1 billion yuan [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.23, up 2.98% with a trading volume of 1,246,400 shares, totaling 770 million yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The Renminbi appreciation beneficiary sector experienced a net outflow of 514 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 467 million yuan [2] - Notable fund flows include: - China Eastern Airlines with a net outflow of 50.94 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow of 34.51 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Jingxing Paper had a net inflow of 43.02 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 24.24 million yuan from retail investors [3]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司 SHANDONG CHENMING PAPER HOLDINGS LIMITED* 中國，山東 二零二五年九月十六日 於本公告日期，執行董事為胡長青先生、李興春先生、李峰先生及李偉先先 生；非執行董事為韓亭德先生及李傳軒先生；及獨立非執行董事為尹美群女士、 孫劍非先生、楊彪先生及李志輝先生。 * 僅供識別 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：1812） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作出。 茲載列山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司在深圳證券交易所網站刊登日期為二零二 五年九月十五日的「山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司投資者關係活動記錄表」，僅 供參閱。 承董事會命 山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司 胡長青 主席 编号：2025-003 证券代码：000488、200488 证券简称：ST 晨鸣、ST 晨鸣 B 山东晨鸣纸 ...

Core Viewpoint - ST晨鸣 is facing significant challenges despite recent recovery efforts, with ongoing operational issues and a heavy debt burden impacting its ability to fully recover [1][2][3] Company Situation - ST晨鸣 has resumed operations at its Shouguang base, while the Huanggang and Jiangxi second plant are also operating normally, but the Jiangxi first plant, Jilin base, and Zhanjiang base remain under maintenance [1][3] - The company is under risk warning due to production halts and non-standard audit opinions for its 2023 financial statements [2] - The company is implementing a four-pronged strategy to alleviate its debt crisis, including negotiating with financial institutions for debt extension and interest reduction, disposing of non-core assets, enhancing receivables collection, and leveraging cash flow from resumed operations [2][3] Industry Context - The paper industry is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with new capacity being added while end demand remains weak, leading to intensified market competition [4][5] - In the first half of 2025, the paper industry saw a 2.3% decline in revenue and a 21.4% drop in total profits, indicating a challenging market environment for companies like ST晨鸣 [5] - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation towards greener production methods, driven by new energy consumption standards and government policies aimed at reducing chaotic price competition [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively working on resuming production, managing debt, and optimizing asset disposal to improve its financial situation and operational efficiency [2][3]. Group 1: Production and Operations - The company has five major production bases: Shouguang, Zhanjiang, Huanggang, Jiangxi, and Jilin. Currently, the Shouguang base is fully operational, while the Huanggang base and Jiangxi second factory are producing normally. However, the Jiangxi first factory, Jilin base, and Zhanjiang base are still under maintenance [2]. - The company aims to resume production at the halted bases as soon as possible [2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Debt Management - A capital injection of 1 billion yuan from the government platform has been fully received, along with a 2.31 billion yuan syndicated loan that has been approved, with the first tranche already disbursed [2]. - The company has implemented measures to address its debt issues, including extending loan terms and reducing interest rates, which has lowered financial costs by approximately 700 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Asset Disposal and Efficiency - The company is focusing on revitalizing and disposing of existing assets, particularly non-core assets, and has established an asset management center to enhance disposal efficiency [2]. - The disposal of property assets located in key cities such as Shanghai, Jinan, and Shenzhen is being accelerated [2]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The paper industry has seen concentrated new capacity additions, leading to supply-demand imbalances. However, the long-term outlook is positive due to the "dual carbon" strategy and improved domestic market conditions, which are expected to enhance industry profitability and market concentration [3].