Core Viewpoint - The Chinese paper industry is projected to experience growth, with a forecasted production of 14.35 million tons of paper and paperboard in October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [1] Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of paper and paperboard in China from January to October 2025 is expected to reach 13.5156 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 3.5% [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting outlines the market research and development prospects for the Chinese paper industry from 2025 to 2031, indicating a focus on industry trends and investment opportunities [1]

此乃要件 請即處理 閣下如對本通函任何方面或應採取的行動有任何疑問，應諮詢 閣下的股票經紀或其他持牌證券交易商、 銀行經理、律師、專業會計師或其他專業顧問。 閣下如已將名下之山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司股份全部出售或轉讓，應立即將本通函送交買主或承讓 人、或經手出售或轉讓的銀行、股票經紀或其他代理商，以便轉交買主或承讓人。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本通函內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不 發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本通函全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致之任何損 失承擔任何責任。 山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司 SHANDONG CHENMING PAPER HOLDINGS LIMITED* （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：1812） 有關出售目標公司全部股權之非常重大出售事項 董事會函件載列於本通函第5至19頁。 本公司謹訂於二零二五年十二月三十一日（星期三）下午二時假座中華人民共和國山東省壽光市農聖東街 2199號公司研發中心會議室舉行二零二五年第二次臨時股東會。本通函應與本公司於二零二五年十二月十 五日寄發予股東的臨時股東會通告一併閱 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：请问公司湛江基地当前设备检修、原料备货的具体进 度如何？是否已明确复工复产的精确时间窗口？该基地复工后的产能爬坡节奏、产品结构规划，是否会 同步披露以回应市场关切？ （记者 王晓波） ST晨鸣（000488.SZ）12月23日在投资者互动平台表示，湛江基地生产所需的主要原材料木片已开始陆 续运至原料场，同时正加快设备检修，计划年底前具备复产条件，具体时间进度请及时关注公司公告。 湛江基地复工后的产能及产品结构将根据市场需求情况动态调整，相关情况请及时关注公司官方信息。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the company is focused on fully resuming operations and has no immediate plans for capital expenditures despite strong expectations for improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the pulp and paper industry [1] - The company is currently balancing its pulp and paper production capacity and is implementing various product upgrades and structural optimization measures to enhance operational efficiency and ensure steady development [1] - There is an inquiry regarding the potential increase in the production capacity of high-end paper products, such as white cardboard and specialty paper, following the resumption of operations at the Zhanjiang base [1]

（记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司与大韩制纸的战略合作正有序推进，请问目前在 韩国市场的产品销量、营收占比是否已实现突破？后续是否有拓展欧洲等海外市场的新增合作计划？ ST晨鸣（000488.SZ）12月23日在投资者互动平台表示，随着公司各生产基地逐步复工复产，韩国市场 的销售也逐步恢复。当前公司正加大海外销售力度，在中东、欧洲等高效益市场持续开发增量。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The paper price will fluctuate and seek the bottom throughout the year, with possible seasonal rebounds. The estimated price fluctuation range for the first half of 2026 is about 3,600 - 4,400 yuan/ton [3][83]. - The supply side will still see new capacity put into operation, and the resumption of production at Zhanjiang Chenming is on the agenda. The demand side will continue to be stable. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the contradiction is relatively alleviated. Short - selling on rallies is still a relatively safe choice [3][83]. - Double - offset paper consumption has obvious seasonality. From March to May (with a delay in recent years) and from September to November are the tendering time points for the next spring's teaching and auxiliary materials. During these periods, there may be seasonal inventory replenishment in the distributor link and improved consumption, driving the paper price to rebound [3][83]. - The long - term decline of paper prices has forced paper mills to adjust formulas and optimize costs. The ton - paper costs of mainstream large - scale mills are concentrated in the range of 3,750 - 4,350 yuan/ton, and enterprises with integrated layouts have stronger competitiveness [3][83]. - In terms of bargaining power, pulp mills have stronger bargaining power than paper mills. From the perspective of industrial chain transmission, production enterprises naturally have the willingness to raise prices, but whether it can be implemented still depends on many factors [3][83]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Low - price Quagmire under Weak Supply and Demand 1.1 Market Review - In 2025, the price center of the domestic double - offset paper spot market moved down significantly, and the double - offset paper futures generally maintained a range - bound trend after listing [6]. - From January to March 2025, the double - offset paper price remained firm. The price of natural white double - offset paper fluctuated between 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the high - white double - offset paper price was between 5,300 - 5,500 yuan/ton. The support for the paper price came from strong pulp prices before the Spring Festival, reduced supply pressure due to the shutdown of most production lines of Chenming Paper, and short - term inventory replenishment by distributors. The upward pressure came from the lack of concentrated tendering by publishers, poor continuity of printer orders, and the decline of pulp prices after the Spring Festival [6]. - Since April 2025, the spot market has shown a unilateral downward trend. The average price of natural white double - offset paper has fallen to about 4,400 yuan/ton, and the high - white double - offset paper price has fallen to about 4,700 yuan/ton. The reasons include the decline in double - offset paper consumption due to the population cycle and the "one textbook, one supplementary material" policy, the resumption of production at some Chenming production bases, and the limited support of pulp prices for paper prices [7]. - In the futures market, the trading volume and open interest of double - offset paper futures were low at the beginning of listing and gradually improved later. After the introduction of market - makers by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the activity of double - offset paper futures increased significantly. As of early December, the open interest of the main contract exceeded 18,000 lots, and the trading volume was in the range of 3,000 - 5,000 lots. The futures price was at a discount to the spot price, and the basis was always positive [9]. 1.2 Profit Characteristics - Due to the stronger scarcity of pulp than finished paper, higher downstream dependence on high - quality virgin wood pulp, and more severe downstream supply - demand surplus, the upstream has stronger bargaining power, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the downstream to the upstream. After April 2025, the pulp price was relatively firm, the production cost of double - offset paper increased, and the gross profit per ton declined significantly, reaching a historical low [12]. 2. The Pressure of Capacity Expansion Eases, but Supply Remains in Excess 2.1 Slowdown in Domestic Capacity Expansion - The double - offset paper production capacity expansion cycle is not over, but the growth rate of capacity expansion has slowed down. In 2025, the newly put - into - operation cultural paper capacity in China was about 1.9 million tons, mainly double - offset paper. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the domestic double - offset paper capacity will reach 17.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In 2026, Liansheng will put into operation two cultural paper production lines with a total capacity of about 1.2 million tons. It is expected that the domestic double - offset paper capacity in 2026 will be 19.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.67% [20]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of the cultural paper industry should be considered comprehensively. Since specific paper machines can produce multiple paper types, simply using double - offset paper production divided by the total cultural paper capacity may underestimate the industry's capacity utilization rate. The overall operating level of the uncoated woodfree paper industry may remain at around 79% [24][25]. 2.2 Resumption of Production at Chenming Paper - The resumption of production at Zhanjiang Chenming is on the agenda, and the supply pressure will increase. The company plans to resume production at the Zhanjiang base by the end of the year, and the market expects two cultural paper production lines with a total capacity of about 450,000 tons and one chemimechanical pulp production line to start operation in January 2026 [28]. - In 2025, from January to October, the domestic double - offset paper production decreased significantly due to the decline in terminal demand and insufficient orders. From January to November 2025, the double - offset paper production statistics from different information agencies showed a decline. The industry's operating rate was generally low, and although there was a slight improvement in November, it still reflected the supply - side surplus [30][33]. 2.3 Imports Remain at a Low Level - China has a low import dependence on double - offset paper. From 2021 to 2025, the import volume of double - offset paper in China showed a decreasing trend. In 2025, from January to October, the import volume of double - offset paper was about 142,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%, mainly due to the prominent domestic supply - demand contradiction and the lack of price advantage for imported paper [36]. 3. Demand Remains Stable with Little Fluctuation 3.1 Consumption Structure and Apparent Consumption Performance in 2025 - The main domestic consumption of double - offset paper comes from books, accounting for about 90% of the total consumption. The consumption of books and notebooks has declined in recent years due to the population cycle and policies, while the consumption of periodicals and other products has remained relatively stable [38]. - In 2025, from January to October, the apparent consumption of double - offset paper decreased significantly. According to different information agencies' statistics, the year - on - year decrease ranged from 5% to 10% [42]. 3.2 Slow Growth in Terminal Consumption - From January to October 2025, the consumption of double - offset paper continued to decline due to the "one textbook, one supplementary material" policy and the population cycle decline. The consumption has obvious seasonality, with traditional peak seasons from March to May and from October to December. However, in recent years, the tendering and printing time of autumn teaching and auxiliary materials have been delayed [44][45]. - The decline in the consumption of standard products is mainly due to the "one subject, one supplementary material" policy and the decrease in the number of school - age students. The "double - reduction" and "one subject, one supplementary material" policies have reduced the demand for teaching and training supplementary materials. The number of school - age students is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [47][50]. - The consumption of social books is also affected by e - reading, but the growth rate of the Chinese online literature user scale has slowed down. The "National Reading Promotion Regulations" to be implemented in 2026 may drive the consumption of double - offset paper for social books [52][54]. 3.3 Exports May Remain Stable - The export volume of double - offset paper in China has increased first and then decreased in the past five years. In 2024, it was about 970,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%. In 2025, from January to October, the export volume decreased by 15% year - on - year, mainly due to the increasing international environmental uncertainty and the loss of some overseas orders [57][60]. - China's double - offset paper exports are mainly to Southeast Asian countries. In 2025, from January to October, the top five export destinations were Japan, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, and Hong Kong, China. Considering the local market conditions and the relaxation of the US tariff policy on China, the exports in 2026 may remain stable [62]. 3.4 Synchronous Inventory Accumulation in the Upstream and Downstream - Since the second half of 2025, the industrial chain inventory has shown synchronous accumulation in social inventory and enterprise inventory. Different information agencies' statistics show some differences, but the overall trend is inventory accumulation. It is expected that paper mills will still face inventory - reduction pressure in the first half of 2026, which is negative for the price [66][67]. 4. How to Measure the Pulp - Paper Contradiction 4.1 Spot Profit Calculation - The current apparent profit level of the pulp - paper industry has reached the lowest level in the same period of history, but there has been no large - scale capacity clearance. The main reason is the adjustment of formulas and cost optimization by paper mills. The mainstream large - scale mills' ton - paper costs are concentrated in the range of 3,750 - 4,350 yuan/ton [72]. - Newly added capacity is mostly equipped with pulp lines. Enterprises with integrated layouts have stronger competitiveness. In 2026, more pulp lines will be put into operation, further enhancing the cost advantage and competitiveness of integrated enterprises [73]. - It is expected that about 3.45 million tons of pulp capacity will be put into operation in China in 2026, and the growth rate of capacity expansion will slow down. The supply pressure will be mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter [74]. 4.2 Strengthened Linkage between Pulp and Paper - The contradiction between pulp and paper has deepened in recent years. The reasons include the higher scarcity of pulp, higher dependence on imported pulp in China, more concentrated upstream pulp mill capacity, and higher supply surplus in the papermaking industry [76][79][80]. - As the downstream profit is continuously compressed, the price linkage between pulp and paper is strengthening. Whether pulp mills and paper mills can raise prices depends on factors such as maintaining stable customer orders, inventory pressure, downstream customer acceptance, and market seasonality and price expectations [80]. 5. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The paper price will fluctuate and seek the bottom throughout the year, with possible seasonal rebounds. The estimated price fluctuation range for the first half of 2026 is about 3,600 - 4,400 yuan/ton [83]. - Investment outlook: In the first half of 2026, conduct bilateral operations around the range of 3,600 - 4,400 yuan/ton; short - sell processing profits on rallies (long SP, short OP) [83].

Core Viewpoint - ST晨鸣 has decided to divest its financing leasing business for 3.336 billion yuan, refocusing on its core paper manufacturing operations [2][3]. Group 1: Transaction Overview - On December 12, ST晨鸣 announced the sale of its entire financing leasing business to Shouguang Shengjia Investment Co., Ltd. for 3.336 billion yuan, which includes both equity and related debts [2]. - The transaction will be executed in three phases, with the first payment of 50% (1.668 billion yuan) due initially, and the remaining amount to be paid over two years [5]. Group 2: Background of Divestment - The financing leasing business has incurred significant losses, totaling over 4.5 billion yuan from 2023 to 2024, with asset impairment losses reaching 2.8 billion yuan, leading to two consecutive years of negative net profit for the company [3]. - The paper manufacturing segment is also under pressure due to fluctuating raw material prices and weak market demand, resulting in a gross margin decline to 18% [4]. Group 3: Use of Proceeds - The funds from the divestment will primarily be used to repay over 30 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt, alleviating financial pressure [6]. - Additional funds will support working capital needs and be invested in the integrated pulp and paper project to enhance control over the paper production chain [6]. Group 4: Industry Impact and Market Reaction - By shedding the non-core financing leasing business, ST晨鸣 aims to concentrate resources on expanding high-end paper production capacity in Guangdong and Hubei, targeting a 15% market share in cultural and packaging paper by 2026 [7][8]. - The local government’s support in the acquisition reflects a commitment to stabilizing leading enterprises, reducing the risk of delisting for ST晨鸣 [9]. - Following the announcement, ST晨鸣's stock price rose by 5.46%, closing at 3.85 yuan per share, indicating positive market sentiment towards the strategic shift [10]. Group 5: Trends in the Paper Industry - The paper industry is currently facing overcapacity and demand differentiation, prompting accelerated consolidation among leading companies [11]. - ST晨鸣 plans to enhance cost control by leveraging scale advantages in raw material procurement, potentially improving profitability [12]. - The company is also responding to increasing market demand for eco-friendly products by raising the proportion of recycled pulp usage from 20% to 35% [13].

Market Overview - On December 16, the Shandong state-owned enterprise reform sector fell by 1.32% compared to the previous trading day, with Baoding Technology leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3824.81, down 1.11%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12914.67, down 1.51% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the Shandong state-owned enterprise reform sector included: - Dongjie Intelligent (300486) with a closing price of 21.59, up 9.59% and a trading volume of 352,000 shares, totaling 734 million yuan [1] - Aokema (600336) closed at 8.79, up 3.66% with a trading volume of 628,400 shares, totaling 553 million yuan [1] - Tongda Co. (300321) closed at 43.19, up 2.91% with a trading volume of 30,600 shares, totaling 130 million yuan [1] - Conversely, Baoding Technology (002552) led the declines with a closing price of 15.98, down 5.94% and a trading volume of 90,800 shares, totaling 147 million yuan [2] - Other significant decliners included: - Xingri Co. (002083) down 5.22% to 10.71 with a trading volume of 1,345,500 shares [2] - Qingdao Double Star (000599) down 4.93% to 5.98 with a trading volume of 296,700 shares [2] Capital Flow - On the same day, the Shandong state-owned enterprise reform sector experienced a net outflow of 1.044 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 796 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Wanhua Chemical (600309) had a net inflow of 1.05 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 94.08 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Dongjie Intelligent (300486) saw a net inflow of 81.92 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 69.01 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Co., Ltd. is divesting its financing leasing assets worth 3.336 billion yuan to focus on its core pulp and paper business, aiming for high-quality development [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The company plans to transfer 100% equity of Shandong Chenming Financing Leasing Co., Ltd. and 25% equity stakes in both Qingdao Chenming Leasing and Shanghai Chenming Financing Leasing [1] - The total transaction amount is 3.336 billion yuan, comprising 1.073 billion yuan for equity and 2.263 billion yuan for debt [1] - Following the transaction, the financing leasing companies will no longer be included in Chenming Paper's consolidated financial statements, and the company will cease all financing leasing operations [1]

消息面上，晨鸣纸业公布剥离融资租赁业务，向国有全资企业寿光市晟嘉投资出售山东晨鸣融资租赁、 青岛晨鸣纸制品销售及上海晨鸣融资租赁全部股权连贷款，总代价33.36亿元。估计出售收益约3893.95 万元。所得净额拟用作偿还集团债务。 智通财经获悉，晨鸣纸业(01812)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.11%，报0.76港元，成交额81.5万港元。 公告指出，出售事项完成后，集团日常业务运营在完成前后将基本保持不变。集团将继续专注于生产及 销售纸制品的主要业务。目前，集团五个生产基地中有四个已经复产。董事预计在出售事项完成后，集 团业务及经营规模将不会出现重大变动，且出售事项将不会对集团业务及运营产生重大影响。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...