Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.32% higher than the previous week at 1,226 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week. Supply has narrow fluctuations, and next week's output is expected to increase slightly to 740,000 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 85%. Demand from downstream industries is average, and they mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis. As of November 13, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,226 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from the previous value. - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous value. - The main basis was - 56 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from the previous value [8]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [14]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 232 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - **开工率、产能产量**: The weekly industry operating rate was 84.80%. The weekly output was 739,200 tons, including 410,900 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 55.54% [20][22][24]. - **Industry Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [25]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - **产销率**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 100.93% [28]. - **下游需求**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,100 tons, with an operating rate of 75% [31]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.10.27-10.31 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今年仍有较大投产计划，行业产量处于历史同期高位。 上周纯碱期货先扬后抑，主力合约SA2601收盘较前一周下跌0.33%报1225元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1170元/吨，较前一周下跌0.85%。 供给方面，近期纯碱装置运行相对稳定，检修企业少，供应预期持续增加，下周产量预 计76万吨，开工率87%，供应依旧处于较高水平，远兴能源二期预计在年底前投产，整体供 给充裕。需求端，下游需求一般，资金压力大，按需为主，低价补库；周内浮法日熔量 16.13万吨，环比稳定，光伏8.93万吨，环比增加6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to decline. The closing price of the main contract SA2601 dropped 1.20% compared to before the National Day holiday, reaching 1240 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from before the holiday. With ample supply, weak demand, and high inventory, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. Considering the possible intensification of Sino - US tariff frictions, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly weak and volatile [3]. Summary by Directory Weekly Viewpoint - Futures and spot prices of soda ash declined last week. Supply is at a high level, with an expected weekly output of 770,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. The second - phase project of Yuangxing Energy is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. Demand is weak due to supply disturbances in downstream float glass and the implementation of "anti - involution" in photovoltaic glass. Inventory is at a historically high level, with the national factory inventory of soda ash at 1.6598 million tons as of October 9, up 0.50% from the previous week [3]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [5]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [6][8]. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1255 yuan/ton to 1240 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.20%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1170 yuan/ton to 1150 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.71%. The main basis increased from - 85 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88% [9]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from the previous week [14]. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash was - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 114.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [17]. - **Operating rate, production capacity, and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 88.41%. The weekly output was 770,800 tons, including 428,700 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 55.62% [20][22][25]. - **Changes in production capacity**: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [26]. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 92.23% [29]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the operating rate was 76.01% and stable [32]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory was 1.6598 million tons, up 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [39]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Data on the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate, are provided [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Glass - Supply: Current daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a short - term upward expectation. Xinjiang Puyao and Zhuzhou Liling Qibin restarted production in August. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply changes and the coal - to - gas conversion of Shahe production lines [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 675,000 heavy cases (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. Middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [3]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the profit of natural gas - fired glass production lines is - 165 yuan, coal - gas - fired is + 94 yuan, and petroleum - coke - fired is + 41 yuan [3]. - Demand: As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days are 10.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.94%. The deep - processing raw material reserve is 11.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 60.87%. This week's production and sales weakened overall, especially in Shahe [3]. - Strategy: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The glass price currently lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the mid - stream inventory reduction ability is weak. There are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and policy expectations are uncertain. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Future attention points include supply ignition expectations, coal prices, and mid - stream inventory reduction [3]. 纯碱 - Supply: Weekly production is 745,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 tons, with heavy soda down 4,000 tons and light soda down 11,400 tons). The supply remains high, and Yuanxing Phase II started the commissioning stage on September 19 [4]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 614,900 tons (an increase of 59,400 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3705 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,500 tons. The upstream soda ash plants are reducing high - level inventories [6]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - alkali method is - 71 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method is - 37 yuan/ton. The raw salt price remained stable this week, while the coal price increased, leading to a slight increase in the cost [6]. - Demand: The inventory of photovoltaic finished products continues to decline, and the pressure eases. The daily melting of photovoltaic glass is 88,800 tons, remaining stable. The float glass end is generally stable. In August, the export of soda ash was 215,400 tons, far exceeding expectations, a month - on - month increase of 33.6% [6]. - Strategy: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. With Yuanxing Phase II starting commissioning, the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The mid - and downstream of heavy and light soda ash mainly replenish inventory due to rigid demand, and the pressure on soda ash plants has eased. The long - and medium - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass finished products has declined to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and there is no expectation of weakening. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. However, the export of soda ash in August exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviates domestic pressure to some extent. High inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit the price of soda ash, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the glass futures main contract [8]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of Shahe delivery product prices, float glass prices in different regions (such as Central China, East China), and price differences between different regions and plate sizes [11][14][17]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of glass futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei Yijun) [25][27][36]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of float glass daily melting, weekly production, loss volume, production line start - up rate, and capacity utilization rate [40][41][45]. Production and Sales - Shows seasonal charts of glass production and sales rates on a weekly average basis in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, South China) [48]. Deep - Processing - Presents seasonal charts of deep - processing glass raw material inventory days, deep - processing order days, and the ratio and difference between them [54]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of float glass produced by different processes (coal - fired, natural - gas - fired, petroleum - coke - fired) [58]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of float glass monthly import, export, and net export volumes [62]. Statistics Bureau Data - Includes seasonal charts of the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [66]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of float glass factory inventory, inventory in different regions (such as East China, North China, South China), and Shahe inventory (factory, dealer, and total inventory) [70][72][79]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of float glass weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports) and the cumulative year - on - year change of monthly apparent demand [85]. Soda Ash Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the soda ash futures main contract [88]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions (such as Shahe, North China, Qinghai) and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [92][96][101]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in Shahe [109][111][116]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash weekly production, production of heavy and light soda ash, capacity utilization rate in different regions and processes, and monthly production (weekly converted to monthly) and its cumulative value [115][117][132]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of soda ash produced by different processes (ammonia - alkali method, co - production method) [134]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash monthly import, export, and net export volumes [143]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash factory inventory, delivery warehouse inventory, total inventory (factory + delivery warehouse), and inventory in different regions (such as North China, South China, Central China) [147][149][153]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of soda ash weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports), apparent demand of light and heavy soda ash, and the number of days of outstanding orders of soda ash enterprises and raw material inventory days of glass factories [157][160][168]. Photovoltaic Glass - Presents seasonal charts of photovoltaic glass daily melting, loss volume, combined daily melting and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass, and weekly enterprise inventory [172][173][177].

Industry Research Summary - Soda Ash Industry Industry Overview - The soda ash industry is characterized by simple processes and limited competition due to resource barriers. The main production methods include ammonia-soda process, dual-soda process, and natural soda process. The natural soda process is favored for its cost advantages, with production costs as low as 500-600 RMB per ton [2][3]. Key Insights - **Natural Soda Process Market Share**: Currently, the natural soda process holds a market share of only 15%, primarily contributed by Boyuan Chemical. This is a significant increase from less than 5% in 2022. Future expansions, such as the Alashan Phase II project, are expected to increase this share [1][3][4]. - **Price Influences**: Soda ash prices are primarily influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than upstream raw material costs. Prices surged during 2020-2021 due to supply shortages but declined in 2022 with new capacity additions. A continued increase in supply pressure is expected to lead to further price declines in 2024-2025 [1][5][11]. - **Downstream Demand**: The main downstream applications for soda ash include flat glass (46%), daily-use glass (20%), and photovoltaic glass (13%). The demand for flat glass is expected to decline due to a weakening real estate market, while photovoltaic glass is projected to be a significant growth area, with a 54% increase in production in 2023 [1][6][7]. Future Projections - **Demand Growth**: Soda ash demand is projected to grow by approximately 2.64% by 2025, with photovoltaic glass contributing the most significant growth rate of 3.9%. The decline in flat glass demand due to real estate market pressures necessitates a focus on photovoltaic and flat glass sectors [7][8]. - **Capacity Expansion**: The industry is expected to see significant capacity expansion, with Boyuan Chemical's Phase I project reaching 5 million tons, leading to a total capacity of 43.5 million tons by the end of 2024. This increase will contribute to rising inventory levels, which may pressure prices [1][9][10]. Inventory and Price Trends - **Current Inventory Levels**: Soda ash inventory is currently high at approximately 1.8 million tons, which poses a significant challenge for price recovery. Future price movements will largely depend on inventory digestion [10][11]. - **Price Forecast**: Prices are expected to stabilize between 1,250 and 1,350 RMB when supply-demand balance is achieved, particularly as higher-cost producers exit the market [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - **Key Players**: Boyuan Chemical remains a leading supplier due to its cost advantages. Other companies like Zhongyan Chemical and Shandong Haohua are also noteworthy as they have secured mining rights for natural soda projects, although their market impact will not be felt until 2027 [13]. Boyuan Chemical faces risks related to its Mengda Mining project, which may affect its stock performance [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved. Although there are some potential positive factors such as the upcoming summer maintenance peak, the overall situation is still bearish due to high supply, weak terminal demand, and high inventory [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historical high; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,260 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,383 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 123 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; outlook is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - demand situation, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Impact Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The upcoming summer maintenance peak will lead to a decline in production [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,409 yuan/ton to 1,383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85%. The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1,275 yuan/ton to 1,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18%. The main basis decreased from - 134 yuan/ton to - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.21% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has decreased significantly [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show various data such as effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, and supply - demand differences. The supply - demand situation has fluctuated over the years, and in 2024E, the supply - demand difference is 157,000 tons [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1,271 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.44% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,250 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.81%; the main basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a rise of 61.54% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental - Supply - The production profit of heavy soda ash has rebounded from a historical low, with a profit of - 22.90 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and 56.50 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 69.98 tons, with 39.87 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025 (actual production of 100 tons) [21]. 3.4 Fundamental - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 109.83% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate was stable at 75% [27]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [30]. 3.5 Fundamental - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 179.58 tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [33]. 3.6 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak summer maintenance period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and fluctuating manner [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded. There are few alkali plant overhauls, and supply remains high. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,240 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,253 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 13 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamental situation of soda ash is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has faded. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and fluctuating manner [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - start plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The "anti - involution" policy sentiment has faded [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,253 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous value. The main basis is - 13 yuan, an increase of 116.67% from the previous value [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 22.90 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method is 56.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is recovering from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.27%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 699,800 tons, including 398,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production - start of 1 million tons [21]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 109.83% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has decreased significantly [27][30]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and inventory is at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: There are few maintenance of soda ash plants, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, terminal demand has weakened, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high; bearish [2] - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,225 yuan/ton, the basis is - 15 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; bearish [2] - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 2.26% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][33] - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2] - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2] - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2] 2. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The rebound of the downstream glass disk boosts the sentiment of the soda ash market [3] - Bearish factors: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4] 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,208 | 1,225 | 1.41% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Low - end price in Shahe (yuan/ton) | 1,195 | 1,210 | 1.26% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 13 | - 15 | 15.38% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12] - Production profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China combined - soda process is - 113.50 yuan/ton, which is at the lowest level in the same period in history [15] - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 81.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18] - Output: The weekly output of soda ash is 708,900 tons, including 400,100 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, which is at a historical high [20] - New capacity: In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [21] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.40% [25] - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 158,400 tons, and the operating rate is 75.68%, showing a stable recovery; the price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production has dropped significantly [28][31] 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The historical and expected supply - demand balance data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E are provided, including effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and low - level oscillation. The supply has declined from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and although inventory has been decreasing, it remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1175 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1220 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 45 yuan, with a 7.14% increase compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, and the daily melting volume has been decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply** - Production profit: The profit of the joint - soda process for heavy soda ash in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton, which is at a low level compared to the same period in history [15]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the weekly production is 70.41 tons, with heavy soda ash production at 38.22 tons, and the production has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21]. - **Demand** - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.68 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 168.63 tons, including 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history [33]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates in each year [34].