Macroeconomic Insights - The US unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, down from a revised 4.5% in November, indicating a temporary halt in concerns over job market deterioration[11] - The US manufacturing PMI declined while the services PMI increased, reflecting mixed economic signals[7] - Consumer confidence in the US continued to recover in January, with inflation expectations slightly rising[7] Market Trends - Risk assets generally rose in the week of January 2-9, 2026, with major economies' stock markets and commodity prices increasing[7] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 5.7%, while domestic 10Y government bond futures prices fell by 0.1%[7] - The dollar index increased by 0.7%, with the USD/CNY exchange rate at 6.98, indicating a slight appreciation of the yuan[7] Sector Performance - The AI application sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 35% for the AI industry and over 63% for the large model market[23] - The consumer electronics sector, particularly smart glasses, is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected 110% year-on-year increase in global shipments in the first half of 2025[38] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to overweight A/H shares due to multiple factors supporting Chinese equity performance, including an expected expansion of the fiscal deficit and a more aggressive economic policy[18] - Gold is recommended for overweight allocation due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes amid rising geopolitical uncertainties[20] - The report suggests a cautious approach to oil investments, recommending a lower allocation due to expected price pressures from geopolitical events and US policy directions[20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - After the New Year's Day holiday, the issuance of Chinese offshore bonds has resumed. The yields of US Treasury bonds have shown divergence. The 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields decreased by 3 and increased by 6 basis points respectively last week, reaching 4.17% and 3.53%. The US December non - farm employment data was mixed, with weaker - than - expected job growth but more resilient unemployment and wage data. This led the interest rate futures market to no longer expect the Fed to continue cutting rates in January, pushing up short - term US Treasury yields [1][2][3]. - The tension between the Trump administration and the Fed has intensified. The market's concern about the Fed's independence has further increased, causing the US dollar index to fall, US stock futures to decline, and the gold price to rise significantly in the Asian session on Monday, indicating increased market risk - aversion. If market sentiment further strengthens, it may have a divergent impact on the bond market [1][4]. - In the on - shore market, after the New Year's Day holiday, funds returned to the banking system, inter - bank liquidity was abundant, and the central bank conducted net short - term liquidity withdrawals through reverse repurchase operations. The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds increased by 8 and 3 basis points respectively compared to before the holiday, mainly due to high on - shore market risk sentiment and a marginal weakening of easing expectations [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Offshore Market - After the New Year's Day holiday, the new issuance of Chinese offshore bonds resumed. There were 6 new issuances of Chinese US - dollar bonds exceeding $100 million, with a total of approximately $1.9 billion, and the issuance of offshore RMB bonds was approximately 5.5 billion RMB [2]. - The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese US - dollar bond total return index rose 0.2% for the week, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points. The high - rating index rose 0.2% with a spread narrowing of 1 basis point, and the high - yield index rose slightly by 0.1% with a spread narrowing of 17 basis points [4]. US Employment Data - The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The non - farm employment data for October and November was revised downwards by a total of 76,000, resulting in the weakest annual growth since 2020. However, the unemployment rate in December was 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. The average hourly wage increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, about 1 percentage point higher than the inflation rate [3]. Fed Tension - The US Department of Justice issued a grand jury subpoena to the Fed, and threatened to file criminal charges against Fed Chairman Powell's testimony in Congress last June. Powell denied the charges, stating that it was a consequence of the Fed's independent interest - rate setting. This has increased the market's concern about the Fed's independence [4]. On - shore Market - After the New Year's Day holiday, funds returned to the banking system, and the central bank conducted net short - term liquidity withdrawals of 122.14 billion RMB through reverse repurchase operations. The weighted average interest rates of 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase and 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased by 51 and 64 basis points respectively compared to before the holiday [6]. - The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds increased by 8 and 3 basis points respectively compared to before the holiday, mainly due to high on - shore market risk sentiment and a marginal weakening of easing expectations. Some funds flowed from the bond market to the stock market, and the central bank's emphasis on maintaining the stability of bank net interest margins was interpreted as a potential limitation on future interest - rate cuts [6]. Recent Chinese New - issued US - dollar Bonds - The report lists the information of recent Chinese new - issued US - dollar bonds, including the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issuance amount, maturity date, issuance structure, and ratings (by Moody's, S&P, and Fitch) [7]. Appendix: Chinese US - dollar Bond List - The appendix provides a detailed list of Chinese US - dollar bonds, including information such as the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issuance amount, price, maturity date, redemption date, issuance structure, and ratings [19][20][21].

证券日报网讯 1月12日，热景生物发布公告称，根据《上海证券交易所科创板股票做市交易业务实施细 则》相关规定，经广发证券股份有限公司备案申请，自2026年01月13日起，广发证券股份有限公司对科 创板股票热景生物（股票代码：688068）开展做市交易业务。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09% on January 12, with 28 out of the 31 sectors experiencing gains, led by the Media and Computer sectors, which increased by 7.80% and 7.26% respectively [1] - The Non-Bank Financial sector saw a modest increase of 0.53% [1] - The sectors that faced declines included Oil & Petrochemicals, Coal, and Real Estate, with decreases of 1.00%, 0.47%, and 0.29% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 27.468 billion yuan across the two markets, with 11 sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The Computer sector led the net inflow with 15.774 billion yuan, while the Media sector followed with a net inflow of 5.391 billion yuan [1] - The sectors with the highest net outflows included Electric Equipment, which saw a net outflow of 14.093 billion yuan, and the Electronics sector with an outflow of 11.193 billion yuan [1] Non-Bank Financial Sector Performance - The Non-Bank Financial sector had a net inflow of 1.712 billion yuan, with 72 out of 82 stocks in the sector rising [2] - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Dongfang Caifu, which attracted 1.803 billion yuan, followed by Pacific Securities and GF Securities with inflows of 1.315 billion yuan and 296 million yuan respectively [2] - The sector also had 12 stocks with net outflows exceeding 50 million yuan, with China Ping An, Huatai Securities, and China Pacific Insurance leading the outflows at 2.326 billion yuan, 175 million yuan, and 112 million yuan respectively [2] Key Stocks in Non-Bank Financial Sector - Top performers in the Non-Bank Financial sector included: - Dongfang Caifu: +3.81%, turnover rate 5.24%, net inflow 1.802 billion yuan - Pacific Securities: +7.84%, turnover rate 15.36%, net inflow 1.315 billion yuan - GF Securities: +1.79%, turnover rate 1.66%, net inflow 296 million yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with positive performance included Tianfeng Securities, Zhongjin Company, and CITIC Securities, with respective increases of 3.96%, 1.31%, and 0.74% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.71 CNY, compared to the current price of 22.31 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the limited scale of the H-share refinancing will have a minor impact on short-term shareholder returns, but it is expected to create a new growth driver for the company's international business in the long term, thereby expanding its development space [2][13]. - The company plans to raise approximately 61 billion HKD through H-share placement and convertible bonds, which will be fully allocated to increase capital for its overseas subsidiaries [13]. - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 14.201 billion, 15.568 billion, and 16.567 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on capital market recovery [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 23.3 billion CNY - 2024A: 27.199 billion CNY (up 16.7%) - 2025E: 35.911 billion CNY (up 32.0%) - 2026E: 38.682 billion CNY (up 7.7%) - 2027E: 40.430 billion CNY (up 4.5%) [4][14] - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is projected as: - 2023A: 6.978 billion CNY - 2024A: 9.637 billion CNY (up 38.1%) - 2025E: 14.201 billion CNY (up 47.4%) - 2026E: 15.568 billion CNY (up 9.6%) - 2027E: 16.567 billion CNY (up 6.4%) [4][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.92 CNY in 2023 to 2.17 CNY in 2027 [4][14]. Market Data - The company has a total market capitalization of 169.686 billion CNY and a total share capital of 7.606 million shares, with 5.904 million shares in circulation [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.37 in 2023 to 10.26 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [4][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to raise approximately HKD 6.1 billion through H-share placement and convertible bonds, which will be fully allocated to increase capital for its overseas subsidiaries, aiming to enhance long-term growth potential and international business expansion [2][3]. Group 1: Fundraising Details - The company intends to issue approximately 19.24% of H shares and 4.31% of total share capital, raising around HKD 6.1 billion [2]. - The proposed placement includes 219 million new H shares, representing about 12.87% of the existing H shares and approximately 2.88% of total share capital, with a placement price of HKD 18.15, expected to net HKD 3.959 billion [2]. - Additionally, the company plans to issue HKD 21.5 billion of zero-coupon convertible bonds, maturing on January 12, 2027, with a conversion price of HKD 19.82, potentially converting into approximately 108 million new H shares, which would account for about 6.37% of existing H shares and approximately 1.43% of total share capital [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The fundraising will be entirely used to increase capital for overseas subsidiaries, which are crucial for the company's international business growth [3]. - The company did not participate in the previous round of capital replenishment (2019-2022) for A/H refinancing, and this H-share issuance is expected to strengthen its capital position and promote comprehensive business development, particularly in international operations [3]. - Following the capital increase, the net assets of the company's Hong Kong subsidiary are projected to reach approximately HKD 16 billion, positioning it as the fifth largest among Chinese securities firms [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to HKD 27.71, corresponding to a 1.6x price-to-book ratio for 2025, reflecting an adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [2]. - The industry is experiencing accelerated supply-side reforms, which may serve as a catalyst for growth [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with major indices reaching above 4100 points, marking a "16 consecutive days of gains" [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.89% [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included brain-computer interfaces, medical services, and military electronics, while airport shipping, banking, and Hainan Free Trade Zone sectors saw declines [1] Economic Events - Key upcoming financial events include the G7 finance ministers meeting on January 12, OPEC's monthly oil market report on January 14, and the Federal Reserve's economic conditions beige book on January 15 [1] Brokerage Strategies - **CITIC Securities**: Focus on resource and traditional manufacturing pricing power, with expectations of continued market momentum until the Two Sessions, driven by improved domestic demand [1] - **Guotai Junan Securities**: A-share ROE is expected to rise by 2026 after 14 quarters of decline, stabilizing valuations and supporting a slow bull market for A and H shares [2] - **Everbright Securities**: Anticipates continued market heat in the short term, driven by policy support and economic growth, with a focus on electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals [3] - **Dongwu Securities**: Recommends focusing on growth sectors, particularly AI, aerospace, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals and chemicals [4] - **China Galaxy**: Highlights structural investment opportunities with increased fund inflows and a focus on performance forecasts and economic data [5] - **Huajin Securities**: Suggests focusing on technology and cyclical growth sectors, with an emphasis on military, electric new energy, and AI applications [6] - **Zheshang Securities**: Predicts a direct upward market trend, recommending balanced industry allocation and focusing on mid-cap growth indices [7] - **Cinda Securities**: Notes increased market trading volume and risk appetite, suggesting themes related to price increases and sectors with potential policy or technological catalysts [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong IPO market will not lead to a bear market; instead, increased demand for the Hong Kong dollar may push the currency to its strong-side guarantee, prompting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to release liquidity in the interbank market, thereby lowering HIBOR rates and boosting the bull market in Hong Kong stocks [1][10] - In 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to have 117 IPOs raising a total of HKD 285.9 billion, regaining the top position globally after four years. The market anticipates that the IPO fundraising scale in 2026 will continue to be strong, potentially exceeding HKD 300 billion [2][6] - The impact of IPO peaks and fundraising peaks on the Hong Kong stock market is not absolute; historically, these peaks have not reversed the market trend, as seen in previous years like 2010, 2014-2015, 2017, 2020, and 2025 [6][10] Group 2 - The true impact of IPOs on the Hong Kong market may be observed during the six-month lock-up period for cornerstone investors post-listing, with notable declines in the market often coinciding with these unlock periods [16] - However, in 2025, the unlocking of shares did not lead to a market downturn, as the ability for cornerstone investors to sell did not equate to a necessity to sell, allowing new buying power from index funds and foreign investments to offset any selling pressure [16] - There may be a new wave of lock-up share unlocks for mid to large-cap companies (market capitalization over HKD 30 billion) in March and September 2026 [6][16] Group 3 - The short-term stock price increase after inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is not universally applicable, with historical data showing a low probability of price increases across the full sample [23] - For the Hang Seng Tech Index, institutional investors' presence leads to more accurate predictions regarding index adjustments, with stock prices typically reacting about 30 days before the execution date of adjustments [24] - Following the completion of index adjustments, stock prices usually experience a decline, which typically stabilizes within a week [24]

2026 年 01 月 11 日 《公募费率改革收官, 非银板块向上突破 动能充盈——非银金融行业周报 (2025/12/29-2025/12/31)》 2026/01/05 《高弹性标签助力板块"破圈"，看好资负 两端改善趋势 -- 2026 年保险行业策略 报告》 2025/11/18 《证券行业 2026 年投资策略：权益浪潮 下的券商机遇：财富扩容，国际增效》 2025/11/17 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjg@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 万宏源研究微信服务 续看好全年非银板块价值重 非银金融行业周报（2026/1/5-2026/1/9） 本期投资提示: 时代人行业 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 苏研究招 0 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收跌 1.90%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.89pc ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, highlighting a phase of profit growth, structural evolution, and valuation recovery for 2026 [1] Industry Performance Overview - The overall industry performance is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with a mismatch between valuation and performance [4] - From January to November 2025, the Securities II (Shenwan) index increased by 5.6%, underperforming the CSI 300, while the Hong Kong Chinese securities index rose by 42.7%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 10.9 percentage points [6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, 42 listed securities firms reported a combined revenue and net profit increase of 43% and 62% year-on-year, respectively, with an annualized ROE increase of 2.5 percentage points to 7.3% [6] Business Review and Outlook - **Brokerage Business**: The brokerage business is expected to benefit from increased trading volumes, with significant revenue growth anticipated in 2025. However, a decline in commission rates may limit profitability in traditional channel businesses [8] - **Proprietary Trading**: The contribution of proprietary trading to industry performance has significantly increased, with differentiation among firms based on investment capabilities and equity positions. Leading firms are expected to see stable returns, while smaller firms may experience higher volatility [9] - **Asset Management**: The asset management sector is entering a recovery phase driven by public fund transformation, with expected revenue growth of 33% year-on-year in 2026 [10] - **Investment Banking**: The investment banking sector is anticipated to enter a recovery cycle in 2026, supported by improved market conditions and policy incentives [10] Investment Themes for 2026 - The securities sector is positioned as a cost-effective investment opportunity due to its low valuation and performance recovery phase. Key factors include a clear trend of asset allocation towards equities, a recovery in multiple business lines, and supportive policies [12] - Recommended focus on leading securities firms with stable ROE, such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and GF Securities, which are expected to achieve ROE of 10.1%, 9.4%, and 9.4% in 2026, respectively [12] - Attention should also be given to firms with distinctive asset management and investment banking capabilities, such as Industrial Securities and China International Capital Corporation, which are well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market trends [12] Policy Environment - The report outlines a clear policy direction for the securities industry, emphasizing a shift from scale expansion to functional positioning and high-quality development. This includes a focus on value competition and the optimization of risk control indicators for leading firms [30][32] - The regulatory framework is evolving to support differentiated capabilities and strategic positioning among firms, with an emphasis on enhancing professional services and internationalization [32][34]