Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has outperformed GDP growth for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2024, marking the first time since the second half of 2021[3] - The probability of the stock market outperforming GDP in China since 2000 is approximately 32%, with an average duration of about 6 quarters[4] - In contrast, the U.S. stock market has outperformed GDP over 60% of the time since 2000, indicating a stronger correlation between stock performance and economic growth in the U.S.[4] Group 2: Economic Context - The report emphasizes the importance of nominal GDP in the context of inflation and debt cycles, suggesting that nominal GDP reflects the economic value created across industries[3] - The analysis introduces a two-dimensional framework of real GDP and inflation, indicating that stock market outperformance is more likely during periods of "volume increase and price decrease" or "simultaneous volume and price increase"[4] - Historical examples show that when real GDP rises and the GDP deflator remains low, the probability and duration of stock market outperformance increase, as seen in the U.S. during the 1990s tech boom[7] Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Performance - The report identifies two main factors contributing to stock market outperformance: earnings expectations (E) and non-earnings factors (PE) such as market sentiment and liquidity[4] - In the current context, the A-share market's outperformance is notable due to significant re-inflation pressures, which is relatively rare based on historical precedents[5] - The report suggests that future market trends could follow two paths: a technology-driven slow growth route or a cyclical recovery route with rising real GDP and inflation[10]

Global Market Overview - The report indicates that global markets are under pressure due to current tariff issues, leading to increased volatility. Major US stock indices experienced pullbacks, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all declining [1][3] - The TAMAMA technology index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has risen to 35.1, exceeding the 35 mark, indicating a high valuation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has further increased to 51.8, while the Nasdaq's P/E ratio stands at 42.5, both suggesting potential overvaluation [1][12] - The report highlights that the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is at 38.12, significantly above historical averages, indicating that various sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials may face corrections due to high valuations and economic uncertainties [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw declines of 0.31%, 0.08%, and 1.02% respectively during the week [3][12] - Within the S&P 500, the energy sector had the highest increase at 2.48%, while the financial sector experienced the largest decline at 1.91% [12][16] European Market Performance - European markets showed mixed results, with the German DAX index increasing by 1.97%, while other indices like the UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 also saw modest gains [9][10] - The report anticipates potential corrections in major European indices such as the CAC40, FTSE 100, DAX, and others due to high price-to-book ratios and economic pressures [1][9] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased, with respective gains of 0.93%, 0.91%, and 2.07% [4][24] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is expected to experience further differentiation, with low-valuation assets that are less impacted by trade issues presenting structural buying opportunities amidst volatility [1][39] Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets displayed varied performance, with the Ho Chi Minh Index rising by 5.1%, while the Brazilian IBOVESPA index fell by 3.59% [11][39] - The report suggests that emerging markets may also face corrections due to economic fundamentals and uncertainties stemming from US trade policies [1][39] Key Economic Data - The report mentions that in May 2025, the Eurozone retail sales index grew by 1.8%, down from 2.7% previously, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4][43] - In June 2025, Germany's CPI year-on-year growth was 2%, slightly lower than the previous 2.1%, while France's CPI increased to 1% from 0.7% [40][43]

为贯彻落实国务院部署走访上市公司、推动上市公司高质量发展的决策部署，6月22日，新疆证监局主 要负责同志带队赴上海，走访多家辖区内上市公司在上海的办公和经营场所。 走访过程中，结合辖区上市公司自身实际，新疆证监局重点宣讲解读此前证监会发布修订后的《上市公 司重大资产重组管理办法》，针对支持符合商业逻辑的并购重组、建立重组股份对价分期支付机制、新 设重组简易审核程序、吸收合并锁定期差异化设置、鼓励私募基金参与上市公司并购重组等，与公司进 行座谈交流。 据了解，2024年以来，新疆证监局和自治区政府有关部门已联合或单独走访辖区内超过六成的上市公 司。其中，今年以来累计走访20余家，范围覆盖制造、采矿、金融、信息技术等行业。走访工作通过深 入上市公司生产经营一线，促进了政府与监管部门了解企业生产经营、技术创新、市场开拓、发展规 划，以及各项惠企政策落实、要素保障等情况，通过与上市公司高管、生产经营一线员工和管理者进行 座谈，以及现场"会诊"等方式，收集困难问题和意见建议，建立问题清单，并建立和强化落实跟踪机 制，与相关部门联合推动问题处理，使走访工作得到辖区上市公司的认可和积极配合，公司反响良好。 下一步，新疆证监 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略专题】 赋时间以价值——时间调查公报解析 单位时间价值的变化揭示着居民活动从追逐城镇化进程及产业规模扩张，向个 人发展质量提升的逻辑转换。从单位时间价值的增速来看，2008-2018 年交通 出行、学习培训、睡觉休息的年均增速较高，背后是中国城镇化扩张期下劳动 力流动的需求；2018-2024 年文娱社交、劳动就业、购买商品或服务、运动健 身、个护的增速较为可观，背后主要是经济转型期下对个人发展质量的追求。 各活动单位时间价值变动原因解析：从城镇化红利到个人发展需求。 对单位时间价值的分子端产生价值量和分母端活动小时进行拆分解析，其变化 原因主要为： 技术革新：互联网使用时长倍增，直播电商缩减购物时间； 人口结构：老龄化使得劳动适龄人口占比下滑，平均劳动就业时长缩短； 消费升级：文娱社交、高端美妆代表的悦己消费与运动健身代表的健康观念正 催化新消费增长极； 城镇化映射：地产周期变化对应睡觉休息价值量变动，交通出行单位时间价值 增速先增后降反应城镇化扩张与走缓。 统计局行业分类视角下各行业单位时间人均产出：各行业单位时间人均产出= 人均 GDP 产出/就业人员平均工作时间。 从单位 ...

Group 1 - The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau is implementing a regular visiting mechanism to support listed companies in the region, addressing their difficulties and suggestions to promote high-quality development [1] - Since 2024, the bureau and local government have visited over 60% of listed companies, with 13 companies visited this year across various industries including manufacturing, mining, finance, and information technology [1] - A total of 17 issues and suggestions have been collected from these visits, covering industrial policies, corporate financing, and operational challenges, with 7 issues already resolved and 10 ongoing [1] Group 2 - The bureau emphasizes policy promotion, guiding listed companies to leverage new policies for value management through mergers, buybacks, dividends, and equity incentives [2] - As of now, 33 listed companies in the region have announced cash dividend plans totaling 11.608 billion yuan, representing 82.5% of profitable companies; 11 companies have conducted stock buybacks amounting to 1.224 billion yuan [2] - The bureau plans to deepen regulatory collaboration with local government, focusing on enhancing regulatory services and optimizing corporate governance to foster a virtuous cycle of regulatory guidance, value enhancement, and economic empowerment [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The total repurchase amount for the week was HKD 3.28 billion, a significant decrease from HKD 4.97 billion the previous week[10] - The number of companies engaging in repurchases increased to 67 from 45 in the prior week[10] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the repurchase with an amount of HKD 2.00 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) at HKD 422.12 million[10] Group 2: Industry Insights - The information technology sector saw the highest repurchase activity, driven by Tencent's substantial buyback[13] - A total of 15 companies in the information technology sector initiated repurchases, the highest among all sectors[13] - The materials sector, represented by China Hongqiao (1378.HK), had a notable repurchase amount of HKD 394.02 million, accounting for 0.27% of its total share capital[14] Group 3: Repurchase Significance - Company buybacks are defined as the repurchase of shares from the secondary market using available cash, which can be canceled or used for employee stock incentives[23] - Large-scale buyback trends typically occur during bear markets, signaling that companies believe their stock prices are undervalued[23] - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market has experienced five waves of buyback trends since 2008, often followed by subsequent price increases[23]