Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 8.88% compared to the previous trading day, with Western Gold leading the gains [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector showed significant price increases, with Western Gold and Sichuan Gold both rising by 10% [1] Group 2 - The net capital flow in the precious metals sector showed a net outflow of 117 million yuan from main funds and 528 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 645 million yuan [2] - Detailed capital flow data for individual stocks in the precious metals sector is available [2]

Company Performance - The stock price of Shanjin International reached a historical high, increasing by 7.36% to 24.51 yuan, with a trading volume of 18.75 million shares and a transaction value of 461 million yuan [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 9.246 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.14%, and a net profit of 1.596 billion yuan, up 48.43% year-on-year [2] - The basic earnings per share were 0.5747 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 11.72% [2] Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry, to which Shanjin International belongs, experienced an overall increase of 5.02%, with 134 stocks rising and 7 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Among the stocks that declined, the largest drop was seen in Boqian New Materials, with a decrease of 7.85% [2] Financing Data - As of September 30, the margin trading balance for Shanjin International was 870 million yuan, with a financing balance of 868 million yuan, reflecting a recent increase of 23.29 million yuan, or 2.76% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold concept stocks experienced a significant surge in early trading on October 9, with notable increases in share prices for several companies, indicating a bullish sentiment in the gold market [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Sichuan Gold reached its daily limit up, showing a 10% increase [2]. - Shandong Gold and Chifeng Gold both rose over 9%, with Shandong Gold increasing by 9.92% and Chifeng Gold by 9.84% [2]. - Other companies such as Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Shanjin International also opened higher, with increases around 9% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Indicators - The precious metals index rose by 6.04%, reaching 155,851.48 [2]. - The main gold futures contract saw a daily increase of over 5%, trading at 918.06 yuan per gram, marking a new high [2][3]. - The highest price recorded for the gold futures was 918.12 yuan per gram, with a trading volume of 76,500 contracts [3].

Core Insights - The precious metals sector experienced a rise of 1.85% on September 30, with Zhongjin Gold leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Precious Metals Sector Performance - Zhongjin Gold (600489) closed at 21.93, up 3.84% with a trading volume of 1.1969 million shares and a transaction value of 2.603 billion [1] - Hengbang Shares (002237) closed at 14.97, up 2.75% with a trading volume of 530,700 shares and a transaction value of 789 million [1] - Yunnan Tin (002155) closed at 22.44, up 2.65% with a trading volume of 828,000 shares and a transaction value of 1.862 billion [1] - Shandong Gold (600547) closed at 39.33, up 0.85% with a trading volume of 570,600 shares and a transaction value of 2.246 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector saw a net outflow of 120 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 140 million [3] - Major stocks like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor types [4] - For instance, Zhongjin Gold had a net inflow of 196 million from institutional investors but a net outflow of 230 million from retail investors [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shan Jin International's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 51.75% and a recent upward trend in trading volume and market capitalization [1][2]. Company Overview - Shan Jin International, established on June 18, 1999, and listed on June 8, 2000, is primarily engaged in precious and non-ferrous metal mining and trading, with gold as its main product [1]. - The company's revenue composition includes copper trading (33.67%), quality gold (32.30%), silver trading (17.01%), and other metal trades [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shan Jin International reported a revenue of 9.246 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.596 billion yuan, up 48.43% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 5.982 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.568 billion yuan in the last three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 14.62% to 36,900, with an average of 68,473 circulating shares per person, a decrease of 11.34% [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with some new entries in the top ten shareholders [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned to benefit from rising gold prices due to its high-quality gold mines and cost-effective operations, with significant growth potential from both existing and new projects [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Operations - The company currently operates six gold mines and one polymetallic mine, with an expected gold resource increase to 277 tons by the end of 2024, of which the Osino mine will contribute nearly 50% [1]. - The average grade of the company's gold mines is 1.7 grams per ton, with a projected gold production of 8 tons in 2024 and an all-in sustaining cost of $683.5 per ounce, placing it in the top 10% of global gold mining cost curves [1]. - The company has a gross margin of over 70% on mined gold, indicating superior cost efficiency compared to peers [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The upward trend in precious metal prices is expected to continue, driven by the shift in gold's core pricing factors from yield to safety due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar reserve credit [1]. - China's central bank's gold reserves are currently at 6.7%, which is relatively low compared to global standards, suggesting potential for increased gold purchases [1]. - Historical data shows a significant negative correlation between gold ETFs and real interest rates, with expectations of declining real interest rates and increased gold ETF inflows by 2025 [1]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities - The company has identified growth opportunities through both existing mines and potential acquisitions, with plans to increase production from its current mines and new projects [2]. - The company’s existing mines, including Heihe Luoke, Jilin Banmiaozi, and Qinghai Dachaidan, have the potential to increase gold production from 8 tons in 2024, with significant growth expected from the Qinghai Dachaidan project [2]. - The company is planning to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange to enhance its acquisition funding capabilities and is actively seeking high-quality asset acquisition opportunities [2]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.48 billion, 3.91 billion, and 5.34 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 12 times, which are below the industry average [3]. - The company’s stable production, high-grade resources, and low costs position it well to benefit from the gold price upcycle, with a clear growth path from upcoming projects [3]. - The company plans to issue H shares in June 2025, which will strengthen its acquisition funding advantage and support its growth strategy [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with spot gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,819.81 per ounce, driven by factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased demand from gold ETFs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, spot gold prices rose over 1%, breaking the $3,800 per ounce mark, while spot silver prices increased by 2%, reaching $47.174 per ounce, also a historical high [2]. - The A-share market saw a strong performance in the precious metals sector, with several gold-related stocks, such as Zhaojin Mining and Xiaocheng Technology, rising over 6% [2]. Group 2: Investment Drivers - Financial investment participants, including gold ETF investors and global central banks, are identified as the main sources of the current upward trend in gold prices [3]. - In September, global gold ETF holdings surged, with a notable increase of nearly 27 tons in a single day, marking the fastest growth in three years [3]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - UBS Wealth Management predicts that gold prices could reach $3,900 per ounce by mid-2026, supported by a favorable macroeconomic narrative for precious metals [4]. - Analysts from Dongwu Securities believe that the downward trend in real interest rates and the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve will provide substantial upward potential for gold prices [4]. Group 4: Supporting Factors - Three main factors are expected to support the upward trend in gold prices: 1. Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4]. 2. Continued central bank purchases of gold, driven by diversification of reserves and reduced reliance on the US dollar [4]. 3. Inflation expectations, which, if they materialize, could enhance gold's value as an inflation hedge [5]. Group 5: Regional Insights - In China, despite a recent decline in gold investment demand due to a rising stock market, expectations are that ETF holdings will recover as gold prices continue to rise [5]. - The Hong Kong government's plan to expand gold reserves and establish a central clearing system for gold is anticipated to provide additional support for gold prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of mining companies, including Shandong Gold's subsidiary Shanjin International, seeking listings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange highlights the market's internationalization and liquidity, which are beneficial for capital expansion in the gold sector [2][5]. Company Overview - Shanjin International, formerly known as Yintai Gold, has a history in the capital market since its listing in 2000. It has grown through acquisitions and is now a significant player in the gold mining industry [4]. - The company plans to use the funds raised from its Hong Kong listing for mine construction, asset acquisitions, debt repayment, and general operations to enhance capacity and international presence [3]. Financial Performance - Shanjin International has demonstrated strong profitability, with a gross margin nearing 80% in the first half of the year, supported by high gold prices, effective cost control, and rapid resource expansion [2][9]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown significant growth, with a 42.14% increase in revenue to 92.46 billion yuan and a 48.43% increase in net profit to 15.96 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [8]. Market Conditions - The gold price has recently reached historical highs, exceeding $3700 per ounce, which has positively impacted sales revenue for gold companies [2][6]. - However, there are mixed opinions on future gold price trends, with some analysts suggesting potential upward movement if the Federal Reserve maintains a loose monetary policy, while others warn of possible corrections due to economic recovery [11]. Competitive Landscape - Shanjin International faces increasing competition in the gold mining sector, with other companies also targeting gold resources. Its resource reserves are significantly smaller compared to major competitors like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [10][9]. - The company has been increasing its gold production, with targets set for 8 tons in 2025, supported by new projects and expansions [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous and steel industries, suggesting potential investment opportunities in these sectors [8]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a new era of non-linear changes in copper and gold prices, with expectations for sustained price increases [14]. - The Grasberg mine incident is expected to significantly disrupt copper supply, enhancing the certainty of rising copper prices in the medium term [14][15]. - The report highlights that the copper smelting capacity growth is likely to slow down, which may improve smelting fees and profitability for copper smelting companies [15]. - For gold, the report emphasizes that the core pricing logic is tied to the deterioration of dollar credit in the medium term, rather than short-term interest rate expectations [16][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the potential for copper prices to rise due to supply shortages exacerbated by the Grasberg mine incident, which could reduce copper concentrate supply by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 270,000 tons in 2026 [14]. - It notes that global demand for copper is expected to grow rapidly due to factors such as electric vehicle adoption and data center expansion [14]. - The report also mentions that the copper smelting industry is facing a "de-involution" trend, which may lead to improved smelting fees in the future [15]. 2. Steel Industry - The report indicates that steel prices are expected to find support at the bottom due to cost factors, with a potential recovery in profitability in the fourth quarter [18]. - It highlights a seasonal shift in demand, with an increase in rebar consumption by 4.96% week-on-week, although it remains down 13.71% year-on-year [24]. - The report notes that the overall steel price index has slightly decreased by 0.28%, with specific products like hot-rolled steel showing a decline of 0.65% [39]. 3. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54% in August 2025, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [43]. - It also mentions that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth rates, with August 2025 figures showing a 26.00% increase in production [47]. - The prices of lithium, cobalt, and nickel have shown an overall upward trend, reflecting strong demand in the energy metal market [54].

Core Insights - The precious metals sector experienced a significant increase of 2.98% on September 29, with Zhaojin Mining leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Precious Metals Sector Performance - Zhaojin Mining (code: 000506) closed at 10.88, with a rise of 6.88% and a trading volume of 980,200 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 1.068 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Xiaocheng Technology (code: 300139) at 27.67, up 6.18% [1] - Shanshe International (code: 000975) at 22.32, up 5.98% [1] - Hengbang Shares (code: 002237) at 14.57, up 3.55% [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (code: 600988) at 29.00, up 3.20% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector saw a net inflow of 1.237 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.124 billion yuan [1] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Zhongjin Gold (code: 600489) with a net inflow of 296 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Shandong Gold (code: 600547) with a net inflow of 279 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Xiaocheng Technology (code: 300139) with a net inflow of 158 million yuan from institutional investors [2]