证 券 研 究 报 告 生猪行业 5 月跟踪报告 价格小幅回落，体重延续上行 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 27 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 101 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 13,111.51 | 1.27 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 9,904.42 | 1.22 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | | 相对表现 | -0.0% | 8.2% | -3.6% | -16% -3% 10% 22% 24/06 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 2024-06-26~2025-06-26 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《华创农业 5 月白羽肉禽月报：毛鸡、鸡苗价格 保持平 ...

Group 1 - Zhengbang Technology Co., Ltd. reported impressive Q1 results with 1.6477 million pigs sold, a year-on-year increase of 78.58%, and revenue of 3.002 billion yuan, up 108.22% [1] - The company successfully transitioned from near bankruptcy to profitability within a year, achieving a year-on-year revenue growth of 26.86% [1] - Zhengbang faced cumulative losses exceeding 32 billion yuan from 2021 to 2022 due to market conditions and the pandemic, putting it at risk of forced delisting [1] Group 2 - In December 2023, the Twin Group took over Zhengbang Technology, investing in 104,000 sets of smart equipment and utilizing 5G IoT technology to create a smart pig farming system [2] - Zhengbang's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 46.42% in 2024, a decrease of 7.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2] - The company achieved a feed sales volume of 1.24 million tons in 2024, a 94% increase, and sold 4.1466 million pigs, with the breeding sow inventory recovering to 275,000 [2] Group 3 - The Twin Group also experienced significant growth, with its revenue surpassing 100 billion yuan for the first time in 2024, and a 37.1% year-on-year increase in sales revenue from January to May [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Jiangxi's economic and fiscal levels are in the middle in China, with a debt ratio in the upper - middle range. The province has achieved remarkable results in debt reduction and transformation, and its industrial transformation has initially shown results. The integration of industries through the transfer from developed regions will become an important growth point for Jiangxi's economy [1][2][4] - The overall debt pressure in Jiangxi is controllable, but there are differences in the fundamentals and debt pressures among cities. When choosing bonds, it is necessary to consider different risk preferences and bond maturities [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 江西省经济财政债务一览 3.1.1 江西区位概览 - Jiangxi is located in the southeast inland of China, on the south bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It is adjacent to Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui. It is the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Minnan Triangle. It has convenient transportation with well - developed highways, railways, aviation, and waterways [11] 3.1.2 江西经济财政情况 - In 2024, Jiangxi's GDP was 3420.25 billion yuan, ranking 15th in China, with a GDP growth rate of 5.1%, ranking 18th. The per - capita GDP was 76,000 yuan, ranking 18th. The "14th Five - Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth of about 7% [13] - In 2024, Jiangxi's general public budget revenue was 306.66 billion yuan, and the government - funded revenue was 181.39 billion yuan, ranking 17th and 14th respectively. The land - finance dependence was 37%, ranking 8th. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 40%, ranking 18th, and the tax revenue accounted for 64%, ranking 21st [17][19] 3.1.3 江西债务情况 - Considering narrow - sense hidden debts and local debts, Jiangxi's broad - caliber debt pressure is in the middle in China. Considering urban investment interest - bearing debts and local debts, Jiangxi's debt pressure is relatively high. In 2024, the interest - bearing debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment in Jiangxi was about 2.3 trillion yuan, ranking 9th in China [22] - The narrow - caliber debt ratio in 2024 was 139%, ranking 20th; the broad - caliber debt ratio was 288%, ranking 9th; the narrow - caliber debt - to - GDP ratio was 54%, ranking 17th; the broad - caliber debt - to - GDP ratio was 111%, ranking 6th [22] 3.2 江西省化债成果 - In 2024, Jiangxi improved the "1 + 9" implementation plan for preventing and resolving local debt risks, achieving a double decline in the number of financing platforms and the stock of operating financial debts, and completely eliminating high - risk debts, maintaining the status of the only province with zero bond defaults in China [2] - Since debt reduction in 2023, the growth of Jiangxi's urban investment debt has significantly declined. In 2024, the year - on - year growth was no more than 1%, lower than the national average [2] - In 2024, many places in Jiangxi achieved remarkable results in hidden debt reduction. For example, Jingdezhen completed the task of exiting financing platforms and eliminating hidden debts; Shangrao obtained 14.323 billion yuan of local government debt limits for replacing hidden debts; Ganzhou achieved a "double decline" in the number of financing platforms and debt scale; Yichun obtained over 26.2 billion yuan of debt - reduction policy quotas and reduced government investment project funds by 7.363 billion yuan [25] - In 2024, the proportion of bank loans, bonds, and non - standard debts in Jiangxi's urban investment debt was 56.2%, 31.5%, and 12.3% respectively. Compared with 2023, the financing structure was further optimized [25] 3.3 中部资源型省份——江西省产业结构分析 - Jiangxi is an important non - ferrous metal resource province. Non - ferrous metals, electronic information, and equipment manufacturing are important pillars of the industrial structure. The province has rich non - ferrous metal resources, and the electronic information and equipment manufacturing industries have also developed rapidly [29] - In 2023, Jiangxi launched the "1269" action plan for the modernization of the manufacturing industry, aiming to comprehensively improve the modernization level of 12 key manufacturing industrial chains, build 6 advanced manufacturing clusters, and achieve an average annual growth of about 9% in the operating income of industrial enterprises above the designated size [31] - Each prefecture - level city has clarified the development direction of key industries according to the "1269" action plan and local resource endowments [36] - The industrial transformation in Jiangxi has initially shown results. In 2024, the added value of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 12.5% and 13.1% respectively. The digital economy added - value is expected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan. However, there is still a gap compared with developed regions [4] 3.4 区域实力对比——经济、财政、债务分析 - In terms of economic aggregate in 2024, Nanchang had the highest GDP of 780 billion yuan, followed by Ganzhou with 494 billion yuan. The GDP of Jiujiang, Shangrao, and Yichun was around 400 billion yuan, while the GDP of Fuzhou and Ji'an was between 200 - 300 billion yuan, and the GDP of Yingtan, Pingxiang, Jingdezhen, and Xinyu was between 100 - 140 billion yuan [49] - In terms of fiscal revenue, Nanchang had the highest general public budget revenue of 52.6 billion yuan. Jiujiang and Ganzhou had similar revenues. Some cities have a high degree of land - finance dependence, such as Jingdezhen and Pingxiang [49] - The old revolutionary base areas in southern Jiangxi have received more policy support. The "Opinions on Supporting the Revitalization and Development of Old Revolutionary Base Areas in the New Era" provides multi - aspect policy support for the industrial revitalization of Jiangxi's old revolutionary base areas [53][54] 3.5 区域增长潜力如何——人口、收入和房价情况 - In 2024, Jiangxi's permanent population was 45.0201 million, with a growth of 0.49% in the past decade. The net population outflow was 5.02 million in 2023. The per - capita disposable income of urban residents in 2024 was 47,514 yuan, lower than that of some neighboring provinces and the national average [45] - Jiangxi actively undertakes industrial transfer from developed regions. In 2023, it issued a plan to integrate into the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Haixi Economic Zone. Some cities have achieved initial results in industrial cooperation [48] 3.6 区域金融资源如何——存贷款余额、金融机构分析 - In 2024, Jiangxi's deposit and loan balances ranked 16th and 14th in China respectively, in the middle range. There are four local city - commercial banks and two guarantee institutions in the province [5] 3.7 区域债务对比——城投债余额、估值与择券分析 - As of June 9, the balance of urban investment bonds in Jiangxi was 702.9 billion yuan. The balance of provincial - level, Nanchang, Shangrao, and Ganzhou was about 100 billion yuan, and the balance of Jingdezhen, Yichun, and Jiujiang was between 45 - 50 billion yuan [7] - The overall debt pressure in Jiangxi is controllable, but there are differences among cities. It is recommended to focus on municipal platforms in the third - tier regions and strong district - county platforms for 2 - 3 - year bonds; for those with low risk preferences, focus on municipal platforms in the second - tier regions for 3 - 5 - year bonds; the over - 5 - year ultra - long - term bonds are mainly concentrated in provincial - level and Nanchang municipal platforms [7]

后市周期预判：政策引导下生猪降重出栏是近期大趋势，猪价短空长多，产能 去化预期提升，板块迎来明显催化。行业指数 PB 自五月底以来明显抬升，但 仍处于历史偏低位置，板块估值具备安全性和向上弹性，养殖龙头有望率先迎 来估值修复。标的方面建议关注具备成本优势的头部养殖标的牧原股份，其他 相关标的包含温氏股份、天康生物、神农集团等。 5 月上市企业销售数据： 风险提示：畜禽价格波动风险，上市企业出栏量扩张不及预期，动物疫病风险， 企业成本控制不及预期等。 2025 年 6 月 16 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 农林牧渔行业：政策引导规范出栏， 关注产能去化预期提升 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：5 月猪价前高后低。2025 年 5 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别 为 38.19 元/公斤、14.78 元/公斤和 25.49 元/公斤，环比变化分别为-2.43%、 -1.52%和-1.12%。5 月猪价前高后低，五一节后全国生猪价格回落，截止 6 月 12 日，全国出栏生猪均价 14.12 元/公斤。 供应端：24 年下半年能繁母猪存栏微增，对应 5 月出栏生猪量整体充足，叠 加饲料成本相对低位，养殖压 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 12 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《生猪降重或进一步抬升 2025H2 猪 价，供给收缩及需求支撑驱动牛价稳 步上移—行业周报》-2025.6.8 ——行业点评报告 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 行业：5 月大猪出栏释放，2025H2 猪价不悲观 情绪催化大猪出栏致 5 月猪价承压，供给压力前置释放叠加缺口传导将至， 2025H2 猪价不悲观。据涌益咨询，2025 年 5 月全国生猪销售均价 14.61 元/公斤， 环比-1.31%，同比-7.49%。涌益监控样本 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 主力资金流量（万 | 主力资金净流入比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 000876 | 新希望 | 2.62 | 1.38 | 5424.76 | 8.98 | | 000702 | 正虹科 技 | 9.96 | 9.04 | 5299.42 | 29.78 | | 600975 | 新五丰 | 2.78 | 5.44 | 4466.34 | 12.94 | | 002157 | 正邦科 技 | 1.81 | 1.82 | 3050.81 | 8.37 | | 002385 | 大北农 | 0.49 | 2.89 | 2944.88 | 7.03 | | 002567 | 唐人神 | 1.66 | 3.66 | 2567.47 | 10.07 | | 002714 | 牧原股 份 | 4.79 | 2.00 | 2563.57 | 0.77 | | 002100 | 天康生 | 2.24 | 3.23 | 2181.92 | 7.78 | 物 ...

正邦科技（002157）公告，2025年5月销售生猪63.86万头，环比上升4.72%，同比上升158.02%；销售收 入7.31亿元，环比下降0.98%，同比上升146.60%。商品猪销售均价14.4元/公斤，较上月下降0.29%；均 重134.87公斤/头，较上月上升1.57%。2025年1-5月，公司累计销售生猪289.61万头，同比上升 114.26%；累计销售收入33.02亿元，同比上升132.78%。 ...

证券代码：002157 证券简称：正邦科技 公告编号：2025—035 江西正邦科技股份有限公司 关于2025年5月份生猪销售情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 江西正邦科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的经营范围中包括生猪养殖 业务，现公司就每月生猪销售情况进行披露，具体内容如下： 一、2025年5月份生猪销售情况 公司2025年5月销售生猪63.86万头（其中仔猪36.91万头，商品猪26.95万头）， 环比上升4.72%，同比上升158.02%；销售收入7.31亿元，环比下降0.98%，同比上 升146.60%。 商品猪（扣除仔猪后）销售均价14.40元/公斤，较上月下降0.29%；均重134.87 公斤/头，较上月上升1.57%。 2025年1-5月，公司累计销售生猪289.61万头，同比上升114.26%；累计销售 收入33.02亿元，同比上升132.78%。 上述数据均未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异。因此，上 述数据仅作为阶段性数据，供投资者参考。 | 月份 | | 生猪销量（万头） | | 销售收入（亿元） ...

证券代码：002157 证券简称：正邦科技 公告编号：2025—036 江西正邦科技股份有限公司 关于对外担保的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 （一）江西正邦科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"正邦科技"）公 司于 2024 年 12 月 11 日召开第八届董事会第四次临时会议，以 5 票同意、0 票 反对、0 票弃权，审议通过了《关于 2025 年度为子公司提供担保额度预计的议 案》《关于 2025 年度对外担保额度预计的议案》，内容包括： 1、为保证公司及控股子公司日常生产经营持续、稳健发展，同意公司为合 并报表范围内子公司提供担保，新增担保额度总计不超过 21 亿元（该预计担保 额度可循环使用）；其中本公司或控股子公司为资产负债率 70%以上的控股子公 司担保的额度为 11 亿元；为资产负债率 70%以下的控股子公司担保的额度为 10 亿元。在全年预计担保总额范围内，各下属控股子公司的担保额度可以在同类担 保对象间调剂使用。以上担保范围包括但不限于公司及下属子公司向银行、类金 融机构及财务公司等机构申请综合授 ...

| 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 猪肉 | 2.39 | 可控核聚变 | -3.47 | | 养鸡 | 1.94 | 减速器 | -3.18 | | 创新药 | 1.56 | EDR概念 | -3.01 | | 动物疫苗 | 1.35 | 人形机器人 | -2.90 | | 眼科医疗 | 1.30 | 一体化压铸 | -2.79 | | 细胞免疫治疗 | 1.25 | 汽车热管理 | -2.63 | | 青蒿素 | 1.17 | 无线充电 | -2.51 | | 仿制药一致性评价 | 1.16 | 铜缆高速连接 | -2.49 | | 重组蛋白 | 1.11 | 拼多多概念 | -2.48 | | 生物疫苗 | 1.01 | 智能座舱 | -2.48 | 资金面上看，今日猪肉概念板块获主力资金净流入6.09亿元，其中，21股获主力资金净流入，5股主力 资金净流入超3000万元，净流入资金居首的是巨星农牧，今日主力资金净流入2.40亿元，净流入资金居 前的还有牧原股份、湘佳股份、新希望等，主力资金分别净流入1.43亿元、7 ...