Core Insights - The leading pig farming companies in China have not achieved significant results in reducing production capacity despite calls for it over the past year or two. In 2025, major listed pig companies reported a total pig sales volume of 144.54 million heads, an increase of 22.08 million heads compared to 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Data and Growth - In 2025, Muyuan Foods sold 77.98 million pigs, an increase of 6.38 million heads from 2024. Wens Foodstuff Group sold 40.48 million pigs, with a notable growth of 34.11%, exceeding its annual operational plan of 33-35 million heads [1]. - New Hope reported a pig sales volume of 17.55 million heads, aligning with its previous operational targets, while Zhengbang Technology sold 8.54 million heads, marking a 105.87% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Price Dynamics - The overall pig output from 19 listed companies in 2025 is projected to reach 198.67 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.9%. Companies like Zhengbang Technology and Dongrui Co. saw output growth exceeding 60% [2]. - The increase in supply has led to a decline in pig prices, with the average price dropping to 12.17 yuan/kg by January 2026, a decrease of 1.78% week-on-week and 23.51% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Capacity Management and Industry Recommendations - The "China Pig Industry High-Quality Development White Paper" indicates that the overcapacity issue stems from rapid expansion by large enterprises seeking scale effects. It suggests that market share for individual groups should not exceed 10%, and the top three companies should not exceed 30% [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for leading companies to stabilize the market by actively reducing production during periods of oversupply and releasing capacity in times of shortage [4]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The current structure of pig farming is shifting towards larger enterprises, with only Muyuan Foods maintaining a market share around 10%. Analysts suggest a balanced development involving family-run farms, which currently account for about 30% of output [6]. - The number of breeding sows is crucial for determining pig output, and adjustments to the target breeding sow population are recommended to align with market conditions [7][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry is expected to see a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices anticipated to slightly rise from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. In December 2025, the national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.23% [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, which is a month-on-month increase of 18.68% and a year-on-year increase of 3.50% [15] - The overall supply pressure is expected to ease due to increased slaughtering in late December, leading to a slight price increase for hogs, although the upward potential remains limited [5][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry anticipates a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices expected to rise slightly from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. The December 2025 national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, down 0.84% month-on-month and down 26.23% year-on-year [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, up 18.68% month-on-month and 3.50% year-on-year [15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of large hogs is expected to remain ample, with the proportion of hogs over 150 kg slightly higher than the same period in 2024. As of January 1, 2026, the proportion of hogs over 150 kg was 6.76%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.25 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.03 percentage points [6][18] - The demand recovery, combined with reduced weight slaughtering, has led to an increase in the price difference for hogs. However, high frozen product inventory levels may suppress future hog prices, with the national frozen product inventory rate at 19.89%, up 4.93 percentage points year-on-year [21][23] Financial Performance of Listed Companies - In December 2025, 12 listed hog farming companies collectively slaughtered 17.6075 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%. The individual slaughter volumes varied significantly among companies, with some experiencing substantial growth while others faced declines [29][30] - The average selling prices of major listed hog companies in December showed a month-on-month decline, with prices ranging from 10.66 to 12.21 yuan/kg, reflecting various percentage changes [36][37]

证券之星消息，1月12日养殖业板块较上一交易日上涨0.04%，福成股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4165.29，上涨1.09%。深证成指报收于14366.91，上涨1.75%。养殖业板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日养殖业板块主力资金净流出2.33亿元，游资资金净流出1677.8万元，散户资金净 流入2.5亿元。养殖业板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600965 福成股份 | | -5099.47万 | 22.49% | -2642.87万 | -11.66% | -2456.60万 | -10.84% | | 300498 温氏股份 | | 3317.98万 | 4.38% | -3850.21万 | -5.08% | 532.22万 | 0.70% | | 002299 | 圣农发展 | 1479.95万 | 5.82% | -975.27万 | -3.84% ...

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry in China is experiencing a prolonged period of low prices and losses due to supply-demand imbalances, with a shift towards fine-tuned operations expected in the future [2][6]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The industry is currently facing losses primarily due to high production capacity, with the number of breeding sows remaining elevated at 39.9 million as of October 2025, which is 102.3% of the normal level [4]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.25 yuan/kg as of December 28, 2025, still below the breakeven cost of 14 yuan/kg [2]. Price Trends and Profitability - The average price of live pigs for the entire year of 2025 is projected to be between 13.9 and 14 yuan/kg, with significant price drops observed from August onwards [3]. - By December 26, 2025, the losses for self-breeding and purchased pig farming were reported at -130 yuan/head and -163 yuan/head, respectively [3]. Production Capacity and Adjustments - The number of breeding sows has decreased by approximately 400,000 from a peak of 4.39 million in December 2022, but the current level remains high [4]. - Despite efforts to reduce production capacity, the pace of adjustment has been slow, with major companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhengbang Technology already meeting their annual output targets by November 2025 [5]. Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with some achieving significant reductions in production costs, such as Muyuan Foods at 11.3 yuan/kg and Wens Foodstuffs at 12.2-12.4 yuan/kg [8]. - The industry consensus indicates that relying solely on scale is no longer sufficient for profit growth, leading to a transition towards a micro-profit era [9]. Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation towards sustainable development, emphasizing collaboration across the supply chain, including feed production, breeding, and processing [10]. - The involvement of large agricultural groups and cross-industry capital is anticipated to intensify competition and capacity expansion in the short term, while promoting modernization and stability in the long term [10].

Core Viewpoint - The pig price in December 2025 reached a new low, with the industry experiencing a prolonged period of price inversion, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The December 2025 pig sales data revealed that the expected peak season did not materialize, with average sales prices dropping over 25% year-on-year, ranging between 11 CNY/kg and 12 CNY/kg [2]. - Major companies like Muyuan Foods reported a 14.75% decrease in sales volume to 6.98 million pigs in December, resulting in a 36.06% decline in sales revenue to 9.667 billion CNY [2]. - Some companies, such as Zhengbang Technology, saw significant increases in sales volume, with a 73.26% rise to 1.0286 million pigs and a 25.75% increase in revenue to 914 million CNY [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - The pig price exhibited a fluctuating trend in December, with a brief recovery mid-month due to seasonal demand, but ultimately ended with a slight month-on-month decline [3]. - The average price of white strip pork decreased by 26.21% year-on-year, despite a 15.22% increase in daily slaughter volume, indicating persistent downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 3: Capacity Reduction - The industry is gradually initiating capacity reduction, but the pace remains slow, with many companies still maintaining high levels of breeding sows [4]. - As of December 2025, Muyuan Foods reported a breeding sow inventory of 3.232 million heads, reflecting a decrease, but overall industry capacity reduction is not yet substantial [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current high levels of breeding sow inventory will continue to exert pressure on supply, limiting price recovery potential [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the effects of capacity reduction will become evident in the second half of 2026, with the first half expected to remain in a downward price cycle [5].

证券之星消息，1月9日养殖业板块较上一交易日下跌0.22%，福成股份领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4120.43，上涨0.92%。深证成指报收于14120.15，上涨1.15%。养殖业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600965 | 福成股份 | 5.77 | -1.70% | 21.10万 | 1.22亿 | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | 8.55 | -1.04% | 63.01万 | 5.41亿 | | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 49.76 | -0.80% | 34.58万 | 17.25亿 | | 002157 | 正邦科技 | 3.27 | -0.61% | 156.83万 | 5.13亿 | | 002234 | 民和股份 | 8.90 | -0.45% | 6.89万 | 6119.44万 | | 002124 | 天邦食品 | 2.76 | -0.36% | 36.38万 | 1.00亿 | | 301116 | 益客食品 | 11. ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the sales performance of Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co., Ltd. in December 2025, showing significant growth in both sales volume and revenue compared to previous periods [1][2][4] - In December 2025, the company sold 1,028,600 pigs, which is an 18.45% increase month-on-month and a 73.26% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The sales revenue for December 2025 reached 914 million yuan, reflecting a 23.33% month-on-month increase and a 25.75% year-on-year increase [1][2] Group 2 - For the entire year of 2025, the company sold a total of 8,536,900 pigs, representing a 105.87% increase year-on-year, with total sales revenue amounting to 8.479 billion yuan, a 59.33% increase year-on-year [2][5] - The increase in sales volume and revenue is attributed to the gradual recovery of the company's business operations [4][5] Group 3 - The average selling price of commodity pigs (excluding piglets) in December 2025 was 11.70 yuan per kilogram, which is a 1.20% increase from the previous month [2]

2025年1—12月，公司累计销售生猪853.69万头，同比上升105.87%；累计销售收入84.79亿元，同比上 升59.33%。 北京商报讯(记者郭秀娟王悦彤)1月8日，正邦科技（002157）发布公告称，公司2025年12月销售生猪 102.86万头(其中仔猪53万头，商品猪49.86万头)，环比上升18.45%，同比上升73.26%；销售收入9.14亿 元，环比上升23.33%，同比上升25.75%。商品猪(扣除仔猪后)销售均价11.70元/公斤，较上月上升 1.2%。 ...

证券日报网讯1月8日，正邦科技（002157）发布公告称，公司预计2026年度为子公司及生态圈合作伙伴 提供担保总额不超过46亿元，其中对子公司担保额度30亿元、对养殖户及经销商担保额度16亿元；截至 2025年末，公司对外担保余额17621.44万元，逾期1227万元。 ...

证券日报网讯1月8日，正邦科技（002157）发布公告称，累计对外担保数量及逾期担保的数量：截至 2025年12月31日，公司预计对外担保额度共计479602.75万元，占2024年经审计总资产的比例为 25.24%，占2024年经审计净资产的比例为42%。截至2025年12月31日，未经审计，公司对下属全资、控 股子公司的担保余额为5688.43万元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的0.50%；公司及下属子公司对外担 保(即对公司合并报表范围以外对象的担保)余额11933.01万元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的1.04%。 ...