Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [3][12]. Core Views - The company's profitability is under pressure due to weak upstream and downstream demand, leading to a slight decline in orders and revenue. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.89 billion yuan, down 6.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 655 million yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company is increasing its investment in smart transformation, which is expected to enhance product quality and reduce production costs in the long term, thereby strengthening its scale effect [1]. - The report suggests that with the introduction of new counter-cyclical adjustment policies, downstream market demand is expected to recover, which may further improve the company's capacity utilization and sales prices [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company signed new orders worth 21.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw new orders of 7.44 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year [1]. - The average steel price index showed a downward trend, with the company's gross profit margin in the third quarter at 9.21%, down 1.59 percentage points from the previous quarter and down 3.10 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses for the first three quarters reached 510 million yuan, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year, reflecting its commitment to smart manufacturing [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, predicting operating revenues of 21.88 billion yuan, 23.47 billion yuan, and 25.50 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 24.91 billion yuan, 26.43 billion yuan, and 27.69 billion yuan [1][8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised down to 880 million yuan, 934 million yuan, and 1.021 billion yuan, compared to previous estimates of 1.203 billion yuan, 1.358 billion yuan, and 1.510 billion yuan [1][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.3, 10.7, and 9.7 respectively [1][6]. - The report indicates a decline in the gross profit margin forecast for 2024-2026 to 10.5% for each year, down from previous estimates of 12.8%, 13.0%, and 13.1% [8][9].

本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（下称"公司"）第六届董事会第十四次会议 于 2024 年 10 月 29 日以送达方式发出，并于 2024 年 11 月 5 日在公司会议室以现场的方 式召开。会议应出席董事 5 人，实际出席董事 5 人，会议由董事长万胜平先生主持，公司 全体监事、高级管理人员列席了会议。本次会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》和《公司章 程》的有关规定，出席会议的董事以书面表决的方式通过了以下决议，决议合法有效。 二、董事会会议审议情况 会议经过审议并表决，形成决议如下： | 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称：鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-069 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128134 | 债券简称：鸿路转债 | | 一、会议以 5 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权，审议通过了《关于暂不向下修正"鸿路转债" 转股价格的议案》。 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 第六届董事会第十四次会议决议公告 特此公告。 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有 ...

5、自 2024 年 10 月 16 日至 2024 年 11 月 5 日期间，公司股票已有十五个交 易日的收盘价低于当期转股价格的 85%（即 32.44 元/股）的情形，已触发"鸿 路转债"转股价格的向下修正条款。 证券代码:002541 证券简称:鸿路钢构 公告编号:2024-070 债券代码:128134 债券简称:鸿路转债 安徽鸿路钢结构(集团)股份有限公司 关于不向下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示 4、转股期限：2021 年 4 月 15 日至 2026 年 10 月 8 日 6、2024 年 11 月 5 日，公司召开第六届董事会第十四次会议审议通过了《关 于暂不向下修正"鸿路转债"转股价格的议案》，公司董事会决定本次不向下修 正"鸿路转债"转股价格。自本次董事会审议通过后的次一交易日（即 2024 年 11 月 6 日）重新起算，若再次触发"鸿路转债"转股价格向下修正条款，届时 公司董事会将再次召开会议决定是否行使"鸿路转债"转股价格的向下修正权利。 一、可转换公司债券发行上市概况 1、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 15.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6% [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 660 million yuan, down 26% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 360 million yuan, down 49% year-on-year [2][6] - The slowdown in steel structure production growth is attributed to a large-scale intelligent transformation of production equipment, leading to a temporary decline in capacity utilization [6] - The company's steel structure profitability is under pressure due to intensified industry competition, resulting in price declines exceeding cost reductions [6] - The company expects revenue growth to recover in the coming years, with projected revenues of 22.8 billion, 25.2 billion, and 27.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, down 32% year-on-year [2][6] - The average capacity utilization rate for the first three quarters of 2024 is estimated at 86.7%, a decrease of 5% year-on-year [6] - The company signed new contracts worth 21.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with Q3 new contracts amounting to 7.6 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit per ton of steel structure was 447 yuan in Q3 2024, down 196 yuan year-on-year, while the net profit per ton was 172 yuan, down 106 yuan year-on-year [6] - The company’s operating cash flow improved in Q3 2024, with a net cash flow of 370 million yuan, an increase of 2.7 million yuan year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its competitive advantages and growth prospects, with a projected EPS of 1.48, 1.65, and 1.82 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.6 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [6]

证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 2024 年 10 月 30 日投资者关系活动记录表 编号：T2024-013 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 投资者关系 活动类别 | \n□媒体采访 \n□新闻发布会 □路演活动 \n 现场参观 □电话调研 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 \n□业绩说明会 | | 调 研时间 / ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in gross profit margin, impacting overall performance, but there is optimism regarding a recovery in steel prices, which is expected to improve net profit per ton [1][2][4]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 15.89 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 655 million, down 26.3% year-on-year [1]. - The report anticipates that the company will produce approximately 4.5 million tons of steel in 2024, with a stable production output and potential recovery in net profit per ton due to rising steel prices [4][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.56 billion, a decrease of 5.7% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 228 million, down 32.4% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10.2%, a decline of 1.05 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3's gross profit margin was 9.21%, down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s R&D expenses for Q3 2024 were 176 million, a decrease of 21.1% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in R&D spending per ton [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The projected revenue for 2024 is approximately 22.78 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.22%, with net profit expected to be 879 million, a significant drop of 25.45% [5][8]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including EBITDA and profit margins, with expected improvements in subsequent years [5][9]. Market Conditions - The report highlights that the monetary policy adjustments and fiscal stimulus are likely to positively impact infrastructure investment, which could benefit the company [4]. - Steel prices have shown signs of recovery, with hot-rolled coil prices stabilizing around 3,600 yuan per ton, up 7.65% since October compared to Q3 [2][4].

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 10 30 年 月 日 鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） Q3 业绩承压，钢结构量价有望边际回暖 Q3 业绩继续承压，售价与需求有望边际好转。公司 2024Q1-3 实现营收 159.8 亿元，同降 6%，今年以来钢结构产量同比基本持平，但钢结构售 价跟随钢价下行，制约营收增长。Q1-3 实现扣非后归母净利润 3.6 亿元， 同降 49%，增速明显低于收入，主要系：1）钢材成本以移动加权平均法 计算，钢结构售价下行速度快于成本，毛利率下降；2）坏账计提有所增 多；3）研发等费用率上升。Q1-3 实现归母净利润 6.6 亿元，同降 26%， 降幅小于扣非后归母净利润，主因今年以来政府补助同比去年增多。分季 度看，Q1/Q2/Q3 营收分别 YoY-12%/-3%/-6%；扣非后归母净利润分别 YoY-39%/-52%/-52%；归母净利润分别 YoY+1%/-36%/-32%。单吨利 润方面，Q1-3 以产量计算的吨扣非后归母净利 110 元，YoY-107 元， Q1/Q2/Q3 分别为 95/125/105 元，YoY-61/-133/-116 ...

| 证券代码：002541 | 证券简称:鸿路钢构 | 公告编号：2024-067 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码: 128134 | 债券简称:鸿路转债 | | 安徽鸿路钢结构（集团）股份有限公司 关于预计触发鸿路转债转股价格向下修正条件的 经中国证券监督管理委员会"证监许可[2020]1983 号"文核准，安徽鸿路 钢结构（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2020 年 10 月 9 日公开发 行了 1,880 万张可转换公司转债，每张面值为人民币 100 元，发行总额 18.80 亿元，期限六年。 2、可转换公司债券上市情况 经深圳证券交易所"深证上[2020]971号"文同意，公司本次公开发行的可 转换公司债券于2020年11月2日在深圳证券交易所挂牌交易，债券简称"鸿路转 1、证券代码：002541 证券简称：鸿路钢构 2、债券代码：128134 债券简称：鸿路转债 3、转股价格：人民币 32.44 元/股 4、转股期限：2021 年 4 月 15 日至 2026 年 10 月 8 日 提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was ¥5,561,619,650.84, a decrease of 5.69% compared to the same period last year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was ¥227,712,843.68, down 32.37% year-on-year[2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥120,683,014.33, reflecting a decline of 51.64% compared to the previous year[2] - Total operating revenue for the third quarter was CNY 15,887,282,312.52, a decrease of 6.39% compared to CNY 16,968,243,147.69 in the same period last year[12] - Operating profit for the quarter was CNY 730,836,933.21, down 29.4% from CNY 1,035,176,011.06 year-over-year[13] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 655,499,132.70, a decline of 26.3% compared to CNY 889,287,216.32 in the previous year[13] - The total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 is CNY 655,499,132.70, down from CNY 889,287,216.32 in the previous period, representing a decrease of approximately 26.3%[14] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 is CNY 0.9536, compared to CNY 1.2888 in the same period last year, reflecting a decline of about 26.0%[14] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of the reporting period reached ¥25,536,204,505.33, an increase of 9.67% from the end of the previous year[2] - Total assets increased to CNY 25,536,204,505.33, up from CNY 23,284,289,109.59, reflecting a growth of 9.7%[11] - Total liabilities rose to CNY 16,042,836,960.11, compared to CNY 14,090,276,489.15, marking an increase of 13.9%[11] - The total non-current assets amounted to CNY 9,845,912,814.97, an increase from CNY 9,403,543,725.23, reflecting a growth of 4.7%[10] Cash Flow - The company's cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date was ¥327,199,914.89, down 56.52% year-on-year[6] - Cash inflow from operating activities for the current period is CNY 17,852,929,103.30, a decrease of 4.8% from CNY 18,761,044,609.40 in the previous year[15] - Net cash flow from operating activities is CNY 327,199,914.89, down 56.5% from CNY 752,453,833.32 in the prior year[15] - Cash outflow for investing activities is CNY 1,046,477,722.99, a decrease of 37.0% compared to CNY 1,658,815,515.32 in the previous period[16] - Net cash flow from financing activities is CNY 1,779,445,004.82, an increase of 49.2% from CNY 1,192,395,187.04 in the same period last year[16] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents is CNY 1,287,485,992.75, significantly up from CNY 466,420,175.07 in the previous year, indicating a growth of approximately 175.5%[16] Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 17,793[7] - The largest shareholder, Shang Xiaobo, holds 36.16% of shares, totaling 249,519,764 shares[7] - The top ten shareholders include various institutional investors, with the largest being Dong Yefang holding 10.81%[7] - The company has not reported any significant changes in shareholder relationships among the top ten shareholders[8] - The total number of priority shareholders is not applicable, indicating no priority shares issued[8] Investments and Expenses - Research and development expenses for the quarter were CNY 507,329,219.65, an increase of 18.9% from CNY 426,681,339.43 in the previous year[12] - The company has a long-term equity investment of approximately ¥9.67 million, down from ¥10.25 million, indicating a decrease of 5.7%[9] Other Financial Information - The company recognized government subsidies amounting to ¥132,085,989.54 during the reporting period, contributing to its financial performance[3] - The company's capital reserve increased to CNY 2,282,712,573.01 from CNY 2,281,427,927.93, showing a slight growth[11] - The weighted average return on net assets was 2.44%, a decrease of 1.38% compared to the same period last year[2] - The company has not undergone an audit for the Q3 report[17] - The company is set to implement new accounting standards starting in 2024, which may impact future financial reporting[17]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Honglu Steel Structure (002541) for the first time [5] Core Views - Honglu Steel Structure is a leading player in the steel structure manufacturing industry, with a strong cost advantage and deep ties to core customers, leading to sustained growth in new orders [3] - The company has accelerated its intelligent transformation since 2022, focusing on upgrading cutting and welding processes, which has temporarily reduced production and increased depreciation/R&D expenses but is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the long term [3] - The steel structure industry faces short-term demand pressure due to industrial production and local fiscal challenges, but the long-term growth prospects for prefabricated buildings remain strong [3][9] Company Overview - Honglu Steel Structure is the largest steel structure manufacturer in China, with a leading production capacity and significant scale advantages [7] - The company has gone through three development phases: rapid expansion of engineering business (2002-2014), refocus on manufacturing (2015-2021), and intelligent transformation (2022-present) [7] - In 2023, the company's steel structure production reached 4.49 million tons, ranking first in the industry [7] Industry Dynamics - The penetration rate of prefabricated buildings in China increased from 4.9% in 2016 to 26.5% in 2022, with steel structure production growing at a CAGR of 12% from 2014 to 2023 [7] - The steel structure industry is highly fragmented, with the top 5 companies accounting for 8.2% of the market share in 2023, up from 4.9% in 2015 [7] - Honglu Steel Structure's market share increased from 3% in 2015 to 4% in 2023, reflecting its leading position in the industry [7] Competitive Advantages - The company's large-scale production capacity and strong bargaining power with suppliers allow it to purchase steel at lower prices than competitors [7] - Honglu Steel Structure has implemented a flat and refined management model, reducing per-ton expenses and depreciation costs [7] - The company's intelligent transformation, particularly in cutting and welding processes, is expected to further strengthen its cost advantages [7] Financial Projections - The report forecasts that the company's revenue will reach 22.8 billion, 25.2 billion, and 27.9 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -3%, +10%, and +11% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.0 billion, 1.1 billion, and 1.3 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth rates of -14%, +12%, and +11% [7] - The company's EPS is projected to be 1.48, 1.65, and 1.82 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a 3-year CAGR of +2% [7] Valuation and Target Price - The report values the company at 10 times the 2025 PE, with a target price of 16.48 yuan [11] - The current price of 14.13 yuan implies a 2025 PE of 8.6 times, indicating undervaluation [5][11]